Trying to wrap my arms around last night’s loss keeps me staring at the box score several hours later. I had been thinking about writing about the distribution of shots with the way the team is currently constructed, and after last night, the time seems to be right.
Kevin Durant dominated the play of the Thunder last night to a degree we haven’t yet seen. His statistical contribution to the team was monumental: 46 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a block. Those are definitely eye popping numbers to be sure. But after digesting that, the next thing that pops out is the incredible amount of usage KD had. He attempted 23 field goals and 26 free throws, and gave the ball to others in the form of an assist 4 more times. The computation for individual possessions is long and complicated and I don’t want to get into it, but it’s fair to say he had the ball in his hands a whole lot last night.
To be sure, Kevin Durant will be an all star, and he is the unquestioned scoring leader on this team. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that KD could one day lead the league in scoring if that were his goal and the coach gave him that much latitude. But what I am interested in focusing on here is whether or not letting your star dominate the ball so much is a good thing for the TEAM’S success. Will the Thunder as a team be better off if KD begins to so thoroughly dominate the offense on a regular basis?
In today’s Oklahoman newspaper recap of the loss last night, at the bottom of the article are a couple of quotes from Coach Brooks and Kevin, and the emphasis is mine:
“Kevin was terrific tonight. You can’t take away his performance,” said Brooks. “He’s improving. He’s working at it, and we need that from Kevin.”
Said Durant: “To break records feels good, but I would have much rather have the win and score 15 points. I think guys around here respect me for that. I’m all about my teammates. It feels good, but at the same time I wish we would have won.”
If that is truly KD’s goal, I think it is doable, but there would need to be a shift in the way the team goes about distributing the shots and how it shares the ball. The team seems to be sort of a “big three” configuration right now, with KD, Green and Westbrook being the focal points of the offense, with KD being the most prominent of the three. For the season the shot distribution looks like this:
Player FGA/game Usage%
Durant 18.7 27.9%
Green 13.3 20.9%
Westbrook 12.4 24.9%
As you can see, Durant is averaging almost 19 shots per game, while Green and Westbrook get little more than 13 and 12 respectively. That means Kevin Durant, while part of the big three for the Thunder is taking 42% of the big three’s shot attempts. Usage% is the percentage of the team plays used by the player while he is on the floor. Kevin dominates the ball more than the point guard Russell Westbrook.
It’s not uncommon for the “star” player to dominate the ball in the NBA these days. Lebron James takes 19 shots per game and has a usage % of 33.9%. Carmelo Anthony takes fewer shots (17) but also has high usage than Durant at 30.7%. Dwayne Wade probably epitomizes this “star/usage” connection; he takes almost 22 field goals per game and has a usage of 36%. You would see similar high shot attempts and usage on a number of teams by it’s star or stars. Most of these you would also find to be on winning clubs as well, but not all of the time. Antwawn Jamison on the Wizards, Kevin Martin on the Kings and Zach Randolph on the Clippers stick out as antithetical examples.
But back to Durant’s comments in the Oklahoman. He says he values the win more than the gaudy stats. I think a case can be made that sometimes teams with bonafide MVP caliber stars don’t necessarily need to dominate the ball to such a degree, and that by not doing so allow their teams to be more successful. I immediately think of the recent success of the Boston Celtics.
Player FGA/game Usg%
Pierce 13.6 24.4%
Garnett 13.3 22.9%
Allen 12.7 20.2%
These are the numbers from this year, but the numbers from last year aren’t much different. Rather than play with the “star dominates” model, the big three in Boston had a more equitable distribution of shots and usage.
How about the Spurs championship team from 06-07:
Player FGA/game Usg%
Duncan 14.1 27.9
Parker 14.2 27.4
Ginobli 11.4 27.1
Again, the star of the team didn’t really dominate, in fact Duncan took fewer shots per game than Parker. Each of the Spurs big thee used the ball about the same amount, and created offense for each other very evenly.
But if we take this analysis one step further, one thing that jumps out at me about the Thunder and it’s “star player” Kevin Durant as opposed to the star players on other teams is his assist %. Assist % is the percentage of teammate field goals a given player assists on while he was on the floor. Naturally the point guards dominate this stat because it is their job to distribute the rock to the shooters and scorers. But if you take our ball handlers out of the equation (Watson, Westbrook and Weaver) Kevin Durant leads the rest of the team with 12% assist rate. He assists on 12% of his teammates shots while he is on the floor. That sounds great right? Actually, it’s not, and that might be part of the problem with games like last night against the Clippers and the “star dominates” model we see so much in the NBA.
Kevin Durant is the only player on the Thunder (outside of the point guards) who is in double digits on assist % at 12%. Every one else on the team is in single digits. What does that say about how the team shares the rock? To me, it says that the team needs to go back to the classroom. If one guy is going to so thoroughly dominate the ball, it becomes much easier to defend that team. You know who is going to take the abundance of shots, you know that him and his teammates don’t really share the rock that much, defending that team becomes less complicated.
- By way of comparison, the Celtics have seven players other than Rondo who are in double digits in assist %. Their stars Pierce, Garnett and Allen are each above Durant’s assist % of 12%, plus so are many of their teammates.
- Half the roster of the 06-07 Champoionsip Spurs were in double figures on assist%, including Ginobli and Duncan.
- The Jazz have 6 players in double digit assist % taking the point guards out of the equation.
- Kobe is the star of the Lakers. His assist % is 25.1%-more than double what Durant’s is. All the major contributors on the Lakers (Odom, Walton, Bynum, Gasol plus the point guards) have much higher assist % than Durant.
- Lebron James assists on 35% of his teammates shots!
- The 95-96 Bulls, my most hated team of all time, who beat the Sonics in the finals are the #4 most efficient offensive team of all time according to Dean Oliver, had every regular rotation player with double digit assist %, and MJ himself was over 20%.
- The 96-97 Bulls were also prolific at sharing the rock. MJ was up over 21%; Pippen and Kukoc were over 24%
When you look at the model the Thunder are currently playing under, viewed historically, it seems like we need to get the Thunder players to spread the wealth a bit. Durant and Green are nice passers. I think the team could really benefit if it would begin to make that extra pass. Kevin Durant is really impressive leading a fast break or driving to the basket, but you really don’t see him give up the ball that much. Desmond Mason only assists on 6.4% of his teammates shots. Jeff Green only 9%. I read all of the articles in the paper this year how Green reminds many of Scottie Pippen. Scottie assisted on 24% of his teammates shots in those championship years; a far cry from Green’s 9%.
It may be that with such a young team, and with Durant so heavily dominating the offense, that when a guy like Mason or Wilcox get the ball, which they do much less than in past years on different teams, they are less likely to give it up to a teammate, and instead call their own number.
This is by no means the last and final word on the subject of shot selection and sharing the rock, rather just some opening thoughts that have been percolating in my brain. I’m not really sure if I am on to something or not. Success leaves clues, and so does failure. A commenter (Tobasco, and Crow earlier) raised questions about shot selection and shot distribution. and It would seem that shot distribution is less important than assist %. Team’s with the “star dominates” have won championships (MJ and the Bulls) and the more balanced shot distribution also has won Championships in the mold of the Celtics and Spurs. What they each have in common is the much higher assist % from a bigger chunk of the rotation. I would love to hear opinions.
Letting Gelly go wasn't a huge deal from a cold business approach, given all the circumstances. But it isn't really creating a culture of family, treat guys the right way either. You could have moved Sene for a high 2nd or other strategies like buyout Wilkins. I expect Gelly will return and be a decent 8th man, possibly more.
I've wondered abut Gelly. He was trapped in a numbers game. D-Wilk, Ridnour, Watson and Adrian Griffin were all under contract for this season at the end of last. Gelly wasn't. To keep his rights meant that they would have to have given him the qualifying offer, much as NJ did with Krstic, which is a cap hit.
It would have been nice to keep Gelly and found some way to get rid of Wilkins. But you can only trade if you can find a willing trade partner.
I remember some talk of trying Gelly as the third PG last year, but there was already a log jam there. He just wanted minutes; and PJ was committed to playing Durant at the 2 as well. He also had a nice stint in the D league last year, so it would come as no surprise if he tears it up this time around.
French papers cite his agent and suggest Gelabale is rehabbing in Dallas and might do a short stint in NBDL. I could see a number of teams that might pick him up. I'd have keep at least his rights but Presti gave them up. Weaver is a fine replacement but you might have had room in the long run for both.
Sounds like Bob and Crow are saying the same things: who else is going to make the shot?
I liked Gelly quite a bit too. He was smooth and had all the tools. He was a very good rebounder too for his size. He actually has a game a lot like Weaver.
This team is lacking shot makers IMO. You need two guys to create an assist.
Almost no catch and shoot options, no real inside finisher either. Just really hard to generate assists with this kind of roster...
Selfish play and lack of off ball movement is also a big part of the problem. It's cool to be able to create off the dribble, Durant and to a lesser extent Green and Westbrook are showing that they can do it but I would like to see more team play.
Adding a team player in the Shane Battier mold would help a lot. Guys not looking for stats but simply trying to make the team better playing defense, making extra passes etc...
Jeff Green was labeled as this type of guy but right now he is not looking more and more like a scorer, it could change with more offensive options around him though.
Gelabale could have been a decent option IMO (I'm french so maybe it's just me) but because of injuries and bad coaching I guess he is out of the NBA for good.
Having a real SG in the lineup is also necessary. Mason is a SF, Wilkins is a SF and he sucks, Green and Durant are SF/PF and this team needs Westbrook as a PG. A good SG with playmaking skills would just upgrade a lot the offensive flow, could Harden be that guy ?
Compare Durant to guys playing 1000+ minutes so far and a 20+ usage and he is 23rd. Ahead of Kobe. Compare to the subset of these guys with a 25= usage and durant is 8th best of 29.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=totals&per_minute_base=48&year_min=2009&year_max=2009&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=1000&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=25&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=ts_pct
As an aside 33 yr old Ray Alen leads the league for those with 20+ usage and this level of minutes. Allen-Durant could have been and Durant probably would have it a lot easier but Presti is building for the future over the now. Probaly looking for a younger version of Allen or at least should be.
Durant 94th best on True Shoooting Percentage. Pretty good, but maybe not so good for your #1 guy.
Weaver 20th. Vastly different usage levels but still good for Kyle so early.
Good digging Joe.
Team TS% is about 52%. Durant is getting near 57% so a pretty high usage is ok. But deciding between pretty high and really high you have to look at team results.
Green is at 54% and that is league average.
Remove Durant and Green and the team average for the rest of the guys might be near 49%, pulled down heavier by Watson. I don't feel like calculating it. Westbrook is at 49%. So a shot from him is about the same as a shot from the average of the rest of the guys. Maybe not a huge problem in a static review but again it might make a difference to share the ball more. The rest is on average a w4eak groups as noted before but there are good and bad in this group. Weaver effectively is the team leader at almost 59% in limited minutes and probably against weaker opponents so far. But I'd see if he could handle more.
@Joe
Lucky bastard.
Yeah i dont have direct tV so i would have to stream the games on my computer. Thats the only thing im worried about (picture quality).
Do you think its worth it in your opinion?
Sorry for not giving you all the information about my setup.
@Brian
I like it. I have never used the streaming portion though. I just have my league pass on the Direct TV satellite. I get all the games there are except for Portland's home games, which are blacked out for me-even though I live 300 miles away from Portland? Makes no sense to me. The picture quality is good and I have no glitches at all. I am Lo-def though. :O)
I would be the streaming part would be better than a You tube video, but probably not as good as HD TV. This year, the NBA is doing something new. Used to be you had to have service with one of the dish people or cable companies that carried the league pass, and you got the streaming computer video only as an extra throw in after you paid the cable or dish company. This year, they are letting you buy league pass streaming as a stand alone product. It is 50 bucks right now.
http://www.nba.com/leaguepass/online.html?cid=nba49
That's a good deal. I paid 169 bucks for the TV thing. However, I can DVR them, I don't know if you have to be in front of your computer at game time, or if you can fire them up days after the game?
Joe:
Wow, i cant believe it is only a time fee of $50 for half a season. I thought it would be a lot more. I'm definitely going to get it if everything is compatible.
AD :
“seldom gives the ball up”…
and another thing this reluctance to dish the ball leads to… a Charge… How many offensive fouls (another turn over) do we get called on us anyhow?… seems like its 5 a game or something… I’m sure it’s not that many but man it seems like it…
Absolutely. Remember the Chicago game? Ben Gordon and Larry Hughes blew three breaks on offensive fouls and not giving up the ball.
Joe:
The problem with league pass is im not sure of how good the video quality is going to be compared to a TV. If the quality is going to be reasonably good then i would definetly considered getting it because i enjoy watching all NBA teams and do not mind doing it on my computer
Since you have league pass, what do you think of the picture quality and anything that goes along with the league pass package?
"seldom gives the ball up"...
and another thing this reluctance to dish the ball leads to... a Charge... How many offensive fouls (another turn over) do we get called on us anyhow?... seems like its 5 a game or something... I'm sure it's not that many but man it seems like it...
Zorgon :
Very well written, and good points….yet I think our problem is that we still don’t have the proper role players surrounding our Big 3. They’d probably a little bit more open to passing if the other players didn’t ultimately fail at what they did. The Celtics and Spurs have a good passing percentage because they have good scorers around them….the Thunder have nothing.
You calling Wilkins nothing? :O) LOL
AD :
“…percolating in my brain”
Thanks for answering this question for us Joe… Some have wondered just what was percolating in there…lol
I think my wife wonders also :O)
Big G, I was kind of thinking along those lines you wrote about also. We have a glaring weakness of dead eye shooting. Mason isn't it. Weaver can hit some shots, but he isn't known for his shooting now or in college. Wilkins is so streaky he's like a boat anchor. That's all our wings.
But I was thinking, even though Durant is a great finisher, probably the best on the team, he very seldom gives up the ball on the break or a drive. He knows he can finish. But sometimes, even though he's a great finisher, somebody else is in an better spot to make the play. Green also doesn't give up the ball once he has a head of steam, and he is finishing much better than last year. It's like, once one of our player decides to take it, they take it. There is little misdirection or passing right at the basket for whatever reason.
You are right that the pass and the finish are two separate issues. I think Brooks thinks that Nads can fill that spot a bit, but we really need a shooting, shooting guard. If our big three take about 45 shots per game, and we average about 85-90 possessions, that means there is about 40 shots as it stands for our backup point guard, Center, backup power forward, backup wing and shooting guard to divvy up.
@jk
Nowitzki takes right at 20 shots per night, his usage is very high at 30.2%, and his assist % is a low 12.3; just about what Durant's is.
Actually Dallas looks a lot like we do statistically. Take away Terry, Kidd and JJ Barea, and Nowitzki is the only other guy who is in double figures in assist %
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2009.html
@Brian
I do know if you sign up for NBA league pass, which goes on sale around the halfway point of the season, you can stream on the internet. But you have to pay League pass first.
A couple of years ago Google videos allowed you to watch a streaming video of most games about three days after the game, but I don't really know of anything right now. I have to pony up the Jack for league pass myself. One good thing about it though, I get to listen to the away announcers call the game when the Thunder are on the road, so I get a break from Brian Davis.
"...percolating in my brain"
Thanks for answering this question for us Joe... Some have wondered just what was percolating in there...lol
I would first like say that I have never posted on any blog and have been looking at Joe's old one the whole year and I love it. I like stats to certain extent but I also like to know why a stat is present. So let look at the assist rate.There are two component to an assist first the pass second the shot. The second component is our (Houston we have a) problem. We do not have a consistent out side shooter outside of Durant and Green. The Bulls did have Jordan and Pippen ,but they also had Paxson,Hodges and Kerr. Boston had Garnett,Pierce and Allen ,but they also had Posey and House. I'm sure that is the same case for most championship teams. One or two fourth option sharp shooters added to the mix would solve that problem quick fast and in a hurry. Durant and Green would have more confidence to spread the rock around.Problem solved I hope.
You are a stat BEAST!!!
Peace
Very well written, and good points....yet I think our problem is that we still don't have the proper role players surrounding our Big 3. They'd probably a little bit more open to passing if the other players didn't ultimately fail at what they did. The Celtics and Spurs have a good passing percentage because they have good scorers around them....the Thunder have nothing.
Does anyone know any websites that stream OKC games because i would really love to watch more of them? I live in Miami so the only games i see are Heat games and whatever is on ABC, ESPN, and TNT.
Great blog !
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html
AST% 12.3 USG% 30.2
Quite close to Durant's numbers...
Joe--what does Dirk Nowitzki's usage and assist % look like? I think that is who KD's offensive game most resembles with post-ups 18-22 feet away from the hoop.
On another note, since Weezy has been sent to the bench, OKC hasn't had a consistent low-post shot-taker and shot-makers. Nenad, while he has helped immensely (if for no other reason that Robert Swift doesn't play), is only a 15+ foot jump shooter. Collison's points seem to come entirely off of rebound put-backs. This is a key reason for the low assist rates.
One more reason, D-Mase really clogs up the middle. It would be nice to see Westbrook and KD have a SG capable of knocking down the long jumper when they drive to the hoop. Yes, I'm saying that maybe 25+ minutes from Weaver may be warranted.
Love the blog.
I should also say... that I think all of this improves as the chemistry between these young guys improves... They'll get better individually and as a team... In time, Westbrook, Durant, and Green, will know where each other are on the floor and how and when to get them the ball... It will eventually look less like a pick-up game and more like a smooth flowing well designed offense...
No, it's not good for one "star" player to dominate the scoring. KD knows this very well. He is not a selfish player and readily spreads the offense around. But no Thunder player whose last name wasn't Durant was shooting worth a damn last night, so KD stepped up his game to try and compensate.
Anytime you see a 40+ night for Durant, you can bet that is not good news for the team. Kevin knows this better than anyone. But he also has a leadership position and what else can he do but step up his game when everyone else on the team is a complete dud? Offensively, the Thunder last night consisted of basically one person, and that's a shame. It's not Kevin's fault that he was the only one who showed up to play.
Wow Joe... great read...
Basically 1 on 1 Vs ball movement...
Could this also help explain why we have so many turn overs?