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They may be free, but they sure are worth a lot

by Royce Young on January 27, 2009 at 1:14 pm 5 Comments

As we look through reasons why OKC is starting to win, one thing comes to my mind first.

Free throw shooting.

In OKC’s wins, the Thunder’s shooting 79.5 percent. In losses, they’re shooting 76.1 percent. So that’s not that big of a difference. But look at the difference in attempts. In wins, OKC gets to the line 29.8 times while in losses, just 24.0. Add in the fact that in wins the Thunder’s hitting a higher clip and that’s five or six points right there. And when you’re leading the league in losses by six or less, every point matters.

In this stretch where OKC is playing it’s best ball of the year, free throw shooting has been even better. The Thunder’s hitting 83 percent of its shots at the line since Dec. 31. But that run at the beginning of December up until the win against Golden State, OKC lost 12 of 13 by an average of seven points with six games by six or fewer points. During those 13 games, the Thunder shot just 72 percent from the free throw line, with many games under 70 percent. Again, since Dec. 31st’s win over Golden State where OKC has gone 7-6, the Thunder’s hitting 83 percent from the line and making an average of 24 free throws a game, compared to just 16 during the stretch where they lost all those close games. It doesn’t take Isaac Newton to figure out that’s eight points and when you lose six games by six or fewer, those eight points could have meant victory.

For more perspective, during the 14-game losing streak earlier in the year, the Thunder hit 76.9 percent from the line. They made 19 free throws a game (remember 24 a game now). That’s a difference of… um, five free shots. Oklahoma City lost three games by five or fewer points during the 14-game losing streak. In other words, free throws are big. It seems like a lot of times players walk to the line to shoot two and really don’t put much thought into it make or miss. No matter what they do their little routine, shoot and then slap hands with their teammates. Some don’t seem to value the opportunity to put points on the board with a wide open 15-foot shot. But lately, OKC’s taking advantage of it. (Random note: My dad used to always want a rule change for college basketball to count a miss on the front end of a 1-and-1 to count as TWO misses. I always liked that idea.)

In the NBA, games get decided by six or less a lot. And in the Thunder’s case, a whole lot. The difference between hitting 16-24 or 21-14 from the line can often times mean the difference between a win or a loss.

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Royce
Royce 5pts

Good question Dogman. When you look just at percentages, the top 10 only has three teams above .500 (New Orleans, Dallas, Houston). But when you look at free throws made per game, six of the ten are above .500 (with teams like Boston, Denver, Utah, LA Lakers, Phoenix and Houston) and OKC is No. 9.

So while good free throw shooting may not totally apply to other teams, it definitely does to a team like the Thunder because they absolutely cannot afford to give away free points.

RV
RV 5pts

For comparison, what is the team-wide free throw percentage this year for other teams, good teams, bad teams?

Joe
Joe 5pts

I completely agree with your points Royce,and you as well Daniel.

To emphasize the point, Dean Oliver in his basketball on Paper has a little study where he correlates which statistics have the most direct relationship to winning. He found that the team that had the highest field goal percentage won the game almost 79% of the time. That is number one, and why it is the first of the four factors. #2 most important statistic is field goals made. The team that makes more field goals wins the game 76% of the time. Defensive rebounds is number 3 at 75%. We do number 2 and 3 well right now.

Nice article Royce.

daniel
daniel 5pts

Yep, free throws are big. In my opinion, here's the good/bad.

Good:
1) Much better defense (we may not be a great defensive team, but we're becoming a pretty darn good one)
2) Outstanding rebounding (on most nights)
3) Ability to get to the free throw line and knock 'em down

Bad:
1) Turnovers (ugh!)
2) Inconsistent shooting
3) Inconsistent energy (when energy is high, we're pretty damn good)
4) Lousy bench

Trackbacks

  1. It took a little longer than it should have, but in the end OKC gets it done | Daily Thunder.com - Where Thunder Happens says:
    January 28, 2009 at 9:42 pm

    [...] so many things could have gone differently to have blown this one too. First, free throw shooting. I blame myself. The Thunder went 18-29 from the line (61 percent) and missed multiple free throws that could have [...]

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