Jeff Green has had a tremendous sophomore season, especially compared to his rookie year. He is a very real candidate for most improved player with his huge jump in production. He moved into the starting lineup in the middle of the season last year, and through the coaching change, he has never relinquished it.
His skill set is unique: he is a sweet shooting big man who isn’t afraid to go inside. So often we see big men who kind of do one or the other. Either they camp outside and bomb away and avoid the paint (Andrea Bargnani?) or they do the dirty work inside and don’t have the jumper (Collison). Every team out there would love to have the true inside/outside big man, but there just aren’t that many to be had. The guys that are able to pull it off are the matchup nightmares that every coach dreams of having, guys like Nowitzki, Bosh and Stoudamire.
Green has been given plenty of latitude to develop his game. He is one of only 4 big men this year in either their first or second season, who are getting big minutes (at least 30), and have a high usage % (at least 20% of team’s possessions). The other three are Kevin Durant, Al Thornton and Wilson Chandler. Thornton, Chandler and Durant are each more realistically small forwards and not power forwards, so that leaves Green alone as the sole 1st or 2nd year player getting this much freedom to develop this hybrid big man game.
Here’s a list of all big men (6’8″) or bigger in the NBA that each have heavy usage, get good minutes (> 28 mpg.), get at least 10% of available total rebounds (showing that they play somewhat in the paint), and have played at least 1000 minutes this year; essentially Jeff Green’s peers:
A few things jump out at me from the list, especially the number of trips to the free throw line. Green gets to the line 4.2 times per 40 minutes of play, good for about 21st out of the 25 big men. Green is 3rd on the list in minutes played, but 21st in trips to the line. Green doesn’t really attack the basket, or attempt much inside offense except for in transition; he has mostly been about developing his outside game this year. But since he is getting approximately 50% of the team’s minutes at power forward, how much more effective could the team offense and his personal offense become if he would learn to work the inside game a bit more? The idea being that getting inside and attacking the basket gets you to the free throw line. Green is a very good free throw shooter, and for the big minutes he plays, he really should be getting more easy offense.
If Green can begin to get more easy offense by attacking the basket through his post game, taking bigger guys off the dribble, and rolling to the basket on the pick and roll (instead of shooting the midrange), the whole team would benefit. If he could get his FTA’s up into Nowitzki-Stoudamire territory, he could easily bump up his scoring numbers by a couple points per game and increase his efficiency.
Yeah Joe Krstic should stay on the baseline. Maybe he and Green should cross a lot and set screens for each other and create mismatches?
A scoring center probably needs a traditional PG as he had with Kidd. Westbrook isn't all the way there yet. But I guess the stats show that bigger the early problem with Westbrook on the court with Krstic (as K with Durant) is defense not offense. Krstic-Green is largely a success because of defense.
I don't think Brooks has really figured out how to use Krstic the right way yet. He is still just sort of plugging him in there behind Collison, while still giving Colly most of his minutes because of his rebounding and defense.
On offense, the play we see Krstic in over and over is the high pick and roll and the pick and pop. Problem is, he is getting the ball and shooting from just a step or two inside the three point line. He could increase his percentage dramatically if he took a dribble and two steps in and shot a midrange instead of a 20 footer. Look at his NBA hotspots and you will see low shooting numbers from the top of the arc. : http://www.nba.com/hotspots/
I haven't seen any post ups, hooks, floaters, dropsteps or anything like that at all. Strictly PNR, PNP and putbacks. 82 games has him at 69% long jumpshots and 39.4% on those: http://www.82games.com/0809/08OKC13.HTM
Yet, in O6-07 with the Nets, he was at 46% long jumpers, and he was hitting those at 44.3%. In 05-06 he was at 47% long jumpers and hit those at 47%. So the talent is there, but the way he is being used has changed. Also he had Jason Kidd setting up 89% of those shots too.
http://www.82games.com/0607/06NJN13A.HTM
Yeah rising or "falling" to 5th worst is a best/worst case scenario that might not happen.
Sorry for the wrong word here and there.
FYI was replying to your first comment. Thought it would branch out, but it just put @crow. lol
@Crow
There's still a lot of games to play Crow, just look at our February schedule alone, and we may very well be at the bottom of the league again by months end.
Magic make 150% more 3s than the Thunder. The league average is 50% higher than what they do. That is huge and indefensible.
Weaver & Collison are sorta in right spirit but are not enough.
I am starting to think Presti must not have had a 3 point shot as a player. The league lowest 3 pointers made is either a blindspot-big mistake or another way to purposely tank now.
Durant can rebound but more than anything else he wants to score. Same with Green. Westbrook can defend well and pass some but he too wants to a scorer first. Kristic can defend a bit but he wants to score and is being paid to do that. Last night was all about the big 3 scoring big but there was nothing special about the FG% so the Kings out did them from 3 and won.
Pretty of shots for 2 of these at a time, 3 some nights might work but they need more quality support shooters and better defenders out there.
He gets paid either way... You'd think though that he'd be all effort this season going into a contract year.
Krstic has a whopping 2 inch vertical. I wince every time he gets out-rebounded by shooting guard.
As diesel as Wilcox can be on offense (when he's in the mood) he hasn't shown the desire to be a beast on defense yet this season. The same is true for his rebounding.
At 9th highest in league on turnover % of possessions used this is one area where Weaver is not the right guy given the turnover tendencies of the others.
When his team has a deficiency (3pt shooting, turnovers, FG%, defense) Presti's choices really let it become a big team deficiency. There is not enough skillful balancing off.
Durant #3 in league on turnovers, Westbrook #4. Watson #30, Green #37. I don't see any other team with more than 2 that high. Watson's gone at some point but the big 3 will have to change some on this or at least not be used together that much to ever bring this under control.
DJ White at 4 and at 5 could fit / help.
That's why we need a "banger" at the 4... If we draft Griffin and he's that guy, great... If Green can develop a stronger low post game, all the better...
Krstic on the court own turnovers go up moderately and turnover forced go down moderately. Already weak offense gets weaker. Can't really afford that. Defense improves a bit and cancels things out but at $5 million a year if a guy who makes no impact on one of the weakest teams in the league justifying the selection?
Krstic is a pretty good jump shooter for a big but why does Presti fall in love with that? Krstic taking 69% of his shots as jumpers and even if he hit about 40% that is still 40% and a crummy to be avoid shot if you can get anything else. Krstic only hitting 50% inside (quite poor for a big man) and not often. The absolute opposite of what you want from a big.
So far Kristic not fitting with Westbrook or Durant. His worst pairs. Duh, a big like that, even a jump shooter is going to clog the lane a bit. How do their games mesh? Kristic is not built to play fast.
Working fairly well with Green. Who I'd argue has more of a half-court game. Maybe they should anchor the bench with a careful (vet or not) ball distributor.
Kristic shooting 42% against a lot of backups. Give him time but that is why NJ let him go.
Are you telling me that was worth a multi-year contract at $5 millionish per season? You could get journeyman to do that.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=VecYv
How is Kristic doing? Among his peer group- players 6-9 and over, playing 14-28 minutes game, scoring scoring 15 points per 48 minutes and getting 8 rebounds per 48 he has the next to lowest PER out of 22 qualifiers. Apparently holdover non-Presti pick Wilcox's level of performance is unacceptable but Krsitc's which is a bit worse was a sharp purchase? Not yet.
What is Presti doing- if anything- with Wilcox? Maybe the minutes are being keep low to prevent injury prior to a trade or maybe they are trying to dry up his options to ... then resign him or sign n trade him? Or maybe he is just considered dead weight or Brooks is making th ecall. Presti/Brooks sure not getting max value out of him on the court or in the trade winds.
This team will have it tougher and might fade back but the other 4 at the bottom probably try or succeed less. If PJ was cold-blooded tanking then Bennett-Presti showed aggressive gamemanship even if distasteful. But letting PJ after a month showed caving to fears of fan unrest. I understand the move but they are not as tough-hearted as they probably intended to be. That could hurt the long-run design to be built thru the draft.
Though Drue Holiday might make a nice enough fit / pick at 4th or whatever.
Among used lineups that are positve +/- and lack Mason they almost all have Watson. So to resume the tank Presti can trade Watson.
Bosh was a total monster at the Olympics. I just don't think he's inspired right now. Dude's got talent. But he's not like Garnett in the way that it could be a Saturday morning pick-up game at a church men's league and KG would play with that killer instinct.
I wonder if Presti has flirted with the idea of dangling a bunch of picks in front of Colangelo to see if he could swing Bosh. Presti doesn't seem like a quick-fix kind of guy, but that would be interesting.
But I don't think Bosh wants OKC... he wants a major market, but just thinking out loud.
botch… :
that’s what some of us refer to bosh as up here. a ‘matchup nightmare?’ really? i guess the grass always looks greener on the other side, and in the same vein, the way others view one of ‘your’ stars always seems to be more positive than the way home fans view them. but the raps suck. it’s not all botch’s fault, but he’s got to bear the brunt of it, being the raps’ requisite (and only) ’star.’ he’s been very inconsistent, shown poor leadership, is indecisive with the ball, settles for jumpers far too often, and his body language & overall demeanor during this horror-show of a season has been telling.
i can’t argue the bargnani point (nicknamed VL - for ‘vegetable lasagna’ - up here), he’s a shooter, and little else. he does play better D than he’s given credit for, and actually has shown some ability to rebound (at the rate of a SF, mind you, but still).
as it stands, there probably aren’t too many raptor fans that would object to a deal sending both JO & bosh outta town, for the right pieces. at least you folks in OKC have some hope…the raps don’t have anyone with a wiff of the ability/potential of green, durant or westbrook.
There's an article I read somewhere today where the author suggests that Bosh is just going through the motions. He's told Colangelo he won't resign, and he is close to pulling a Vince Carter. That is a shame. I haven't seen him in play in a month or more, but often he's been like a Kevin Garnett lite. Powerful, long, inside/out guy. It's a shame if he's not that player anymore.
that's what some of us refer to bosh as up here. a 'matchup nightmare?' really? i guess the grass always looks greener on the other side, and in the same vein, the way others view one of 'your' stars always seems to be more positive than the way home fans view them. but the raps suck. it's not all botch's fault, but he's got to bear the brunt of it, being the raps' requisite (and only) 'star.' he's been very inconsistent, shown poor leadership, is indecisive with the ball, settles for jumpers far too often, and his body language & overall demeanor during this horror-show of a season has been telling.
i can't argue the bargnani point (nicknamed VL - for 'vegetable lasagna' - up here), he's a shooter, and little else. he does play better D than he's given credit for, and actually has shown some ability to rebound (at the rate of a SF, mind you, but still).
as it stands, there probably aren't too many raptor fans that would object to a deal sending both JO & bosh outta town, for the right pieces. at least you folks in OKC have some hope...the raps don't have anyone with a wiff of the ability/potential of green, durant or westbrook.
The thing about Green is that he was wonderful in the post at Georgetown. His game was in the paint, muscling everybody. He rarely took outside jumpers. Most jumpers he hit were 15 feet and in. But I think he's gotten to the big time and seen he's not stronger and bigger than everyone like he was in college.
I think Green is trying to be a good defender (and in some aspects he is), but like Joe said, if he gets that back-to-the-basket, back-down game going, he could be a 20 and 10 kind of guy.
It's good that he is starting to work the inside stuff more. The NBA has plenty of big men that can shoot, but the two way player is so valuable and rare.
We had Johan Petro that wanted to shoot jumpers all the time on offense (however he did rebound fairly well on defense) and a few years ago we drafted Vladimir Radmonovic as a shooter/potential two way guy, but he was a space cadet, and couldn't defend a position.
Andrea is mostly a perimter shooter, but he has begun developing a post game this season. In the month of January he has been attacking the basket more. He is second behind Bosh for free throws this season. I know thats not saying much beacuse they are last in attempts but he is showing signs of becoming a well rounded player.
They may have had their eye on Brooks, or another young coach, and just felt like last year was not a good position for a young coach to be in... PJ at least gave them experience at head coach for what was a very turbulant year... I know some people felt like it was a tank job, and it may have been. Then again, maybe they just didnt want to have a young coach to go along with a young GM in Seattle. Now it appears Brooks is a good fit and should be the best bet as head coach for the next couple of years... the focus should be (for this year) the continued growth of Durant, Green, Krstic, and Westbrook...
Yes AD, I don't even think we have to really answer that question because it answers itself. But then again, you know me...
Despite Mason's not so good shooting, the team is better offensively by 2.72 points per 100 possessions when Mason is in the game, and it's better by 4.05 pp 100 on defense when he is in the game. That's a + 6.77.
Now with Weaver, the team has similar off/on numbers. When he is on, the team is + 3.77 on offense and + 2.07 on defense (meaning better), for a + 5.85. But, and this is a big but, Weaver has done most of his work against backups, where DMase has done his against starters.
If we dont play better defense than yesterday... we'll be right on track for the worst record in the league... Could Desmond have been that critical a defensive presence?... apparently so.
I think hiring PJ was a mistake, and hiring Brooks was an attempt to rectify the mistake.
Tanking is just wrong. Karma will get you. If we wind up with the fifth pick, so be it I say. Make some trades and move on.
I hate to say this, but I think the schedule is going to be such, where winning in this next month and a half will become more rare. Mason is gone, and the team defense has been gone with him in the last two games. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see only five or so games separating the five worst teams at the end.
We've gotten better at avoiding charge calls when driving to the rim... We still get a couple called on us, but I've noticed an improvement in Green especially... I'd like to see him post up more on the low block... but the name to his game is definetly versatility...
Either choosing PJ was a huge mistake or a purposeful tank.
Firing PJ when he was fired was either a sign of correcting that mistake... or another mistake.
Thunder could easily end up with 5th or worse in the draft. The odds have gone up a lot.
With Griffin the clear #1 and probably in a tier to himself and a pretty wide gap to the second tier which might only be 3-5 deep this getting better in 2 year after it is too late to mean much can be questioned. Does it really make sense or show control of the situation? Keep PJ til midseason and you'd have extra ping pong balls. Why tank with PJ once then undermining the chance for the big score this summer?
The balls will bounce and nobody knows how it will turn out if Griffin is special then a Popovich style tank might have been in order.
Aditya, I know good and well where Bargnani plays, and that's why I used him as an example. FYI, 76% of his shots come from outside of the painted area. If he goes into the paint much, he doesn't shoot much from there. That's the point of the article. By the way, I have seen a few basketball games.
ok andrea bargnani doesnt avoid the paint....watch a few NBA games and you will see (bargnani plays for the toronto raptors fyi)
As good as Jeff Green is now, I don't even think we've begun to tap into his full potential. He has the ability to be a STUD if he continues to develop over the next couple of years. When you look at his numbers last year to this, it is incredible already. I'm excited for the future of JG22.