It’s a treat to not only win our fourth game out of five, but to actually beat somebody by a good margin – a playoff team no less. The Thunder tonight played stifling defense for most of 48 minutes and held the Sixers to 22 points below their per game road scoring average.
Philly essentially made two little runs in the game. The first was in the middle of the first period after the Thunder jumped out to a quick 8 point lead to open up the game. Philly called a timeout and regrouped. They then began to hit their shots and took the lead to end the quarter with a six point lead at 24-18. What was interesting was that this run coincided nicely (sarcasm) with Brooks’ first player substitutions. He took out Thabo and Krstic and inserted Wilkins and Malik Rose just a couple of plays apart. When Thabo and Krstic came out they were +3 and +6 respectively, and the team had the lead. Then a bit later Earl came in for Westbrook and the lead disappeared completely and became a deficit. Westbrook, Thabo and Krstic were the only positive +/- guys for the Thunder in the first; during the opening quarter Philly shot 55% (mostly great shooting in the second half of the first) and opened up a 6 point lead. The Thunder committed 7 turns in the first.
Shortly after the start of the second period Krstic and Thabo rotated back in, and the stifling defense re-appeared. Philly was completely suffocated offensively and could only manage 12 points in the second on 31% shooting, with 7 turns of their own. By the half, Thabo and Krstic were +23 and +25 respectively. These two guys were just having a crazy effect on the game. Russell Westbrook was +10 and Malik Rose found his Geritol and was +7. The Thunder shot 14/24 in the second for 58% shooting, and the Sixers looked like they wanted to be somewhere else.
In the third with the Thunder sustaining a double digit lead most of the way, both teams played a little sloppy and had a lot of turnovers, and Philly couldn’t make any headway. They were turning the ball over, shooting poorly from the field, and missing almost half of their free throws. They were only able to score 16 points in the third.
In the middle of the fourth quarter Philly went on it’s second little run and made things interesting. Thabo was out of the game getting a breather and Damien Wilkins was in (big surprise). The Sixers began trapping the full court and harassing the wings and Russell Westbrook got rattled. In about a minute of play, RW turned the ball over twice (his fifth and sixth turnover of the night) and fouled Thaddeus Young, and the Sixers cut the lead to 11. Brooks did his most masterful coaching move of the night by getting Russell and Damien out of there and getting Thabo and Weaver back in to pair with Earl down the stretch. Say what you want about Earl, but he is definitely the better ball handler of our point guards when the pressure is on; he didn’t have a turnover all night. The Thunder then ratcheted back up the defense and held Philly to only seven more points the rest of the way.
Randomness:
- I can’t say enough about Krstic and Thabo tonight. These two guys were the glue that kept us in the game; and Earl actually was a big contributor by steadying the team down the stretch.
- Thabo, Collison and Krstic did a really great job collapsing in the paint and helping when the Sixers tried to drive the ball. Philly looked really frustrated at their inability to get easy shots close to the basket.
- Malik Rose played really well tonight. I just didn’t think he had that much left in his tank at this stage of his career. He had a nice post up spin move on Dalembert, and hit a couple of nice deep jumpers on the pick and pop. He boxes out so well with his bulk and strength, nobody moves him out of the way for a rebound. He was being interviewed after the game by NBA tv’s Steve Smith and Derrick Coleman. He was asked who were the most surprising players on the Thunder having now seen them up close. Malik mentioned Nick Collison as a real hard hat kind of guy; a guy who does all the dirty work and really hustles and gives it up for the team. He also said Thabo was the defensive leader of the squad.
- Malik also mentioned how when he was a young player he used to get down and “pout” when the team struggled or his play was poor. He talked about how the vets (like Steve Smith) would pull him aside and encourage him and speak confidence to him. Malik mentioned how he is now trying to do that for Russell Westbrook, who sometimes gets down and sort of pouts.
- For Royce those of you who might have missed it: Earl hit a three! Now he’s 18-76 (23.6%). However, Earl made a really nice hustle play offensively tonight, shooting a little runner off the glass from about 10 feet out, he chased his own miss and got a little one handed putback.
- For me, the play of the game was the play with about 45 seconds left, and Philly was already giving up. Thaddeus Young had a running shot at a slam dunk off of a handoff on the left side of the court. He started a few steps inside the three point line, and nobody was under the basket. Thabo was on the weak side clear out almost to the opposite three point line. He came charging in and came clear over to the other side of the rim to block Young’s shot. Impressive.
Some numbers:
- Thabo and Krstic were +27 and +26 respectively. Since we won by 15 it’s obvious that these two were out of the lineup when Philly made it’s moves, and in the lineup to put the Thunder back up on top.
- The Thunder had a crazy 13 steals tonight. It was only the third time we’ve had at least thirteen, and only the tenth time we’ve had double digit steals on the season; but it was the fourth time in the last eight games! Our guys are really getting their mitts on the ball and playing the passing lanes. Thabo had three and four others had at least two.
- The Thunder allowed only 28 points in the second and third period combined.
- The Thunder had 6 players in double figure scoring tonight; the Sixers had only two.
- Nicky C had another double double.
- It was a pretty slow paced game tonight with just 91 possessions. Neither team really ran much except on occasion in transition.
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| PHI | 91.0 | 81.3 | 41.5% | 21.1 | 22.5 | 23.1 |
| OKC | 97.8 | 49.3% | 23.3 | 29.4 | 23.1 |
- We held Philly to 81 points per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency). This is a team that has averaged 113 points/100 in it’s last five games.
- Our 97.8 points/100 isn’t anything to brag about, but a win is a win, especially without our two young stars.
@Chas
Agreed. But like that recent Slam Magazine article said, it's time to watch KD a lot closer than just the points he racking up before we annoint him as "Next" or as the Jordan to the Oden "Bowie".
There's also something fishy about those 2 being extremely young. We can't give Durant the Ewing Theory moniker just yet.
Here's my next stat correlation. In my two earlier posts, Durant and Granger stuck out as the top-scorers with abnormally low PERs. Then Durant stuck out as the top-scorer with abnormally low Roland rating, even normalizing for the losing teams.
Now we bring in the true Ewing stat: The team's record when the top-scorer sits. Here we go:
1. Wade: N/A
2. LeBron: N/A
3. Kobe: N/A
4. Durant: 4-2
5. Nowitski: 1-0
6. Granger: 9-4
7. Jefferson: 1-12
8. Roy: 2-2
9. Bosh: 2-3
10. Harris: 1-5
Hmm. I'd say the numbers for Granger, Jefferson, and Harris are reaching statistical significance, pointing one way for Jefferson and Harris; the opposite way for Granger.
KD's number is suspicious only because those 4 wins represent almost a quarter of the team's wins for the whole year, and they all happened over the past week or so.
The upshot is that these W-L stats start to corroborate what the [scoring - PER] stat was telling us. i.e. There's something fishy about the huge numbers Durant and Granger are putting up this year.
But scoring rank does not account for pace.
@Anonymous Coward
"Your whole argument is invalid and unfair to anyone who plays in a role that gives them few chances at rebounds or assists (KD, Brandon Roy)."
You're citing Brandon Roy as a guy who breaks my model? My argument shows Roy to be a super stud on the order of LeBron. And I think think the reason why Roy rates so highly is that his assist and rebound numbers are high. The PER, recall, is normalized for pace.
I like how all of Earl Watson's plays are diminutive and cute.
"However, Earl made a really nice hustle play offensively tonight, shooting a *little* runner off the glass from about 10 feet out, he chased his own miss and got a *little* one handed putback."
Well, aren't *you* a cute lil guy!
As an outside observer (not a thunder fan) I think another key to understanding durant is to recognize how different he is as an offensive player than Marbury or Iverson. Those two were/are inefficient scorers who dominated the ball to the detriment of their teams (Kobe is guilty of this as well). Since KD moved to the SF spot he has been an incredibly efficient scorer who takes just about the right amount of shots. Although I am not an advanced stats guy, I know that during Iverson and Marbury's heyday it was unusual for their teammates to score above 20, whereas Green and Westbrook often have big games when KD does, which seems to be anecdotal evidence pointing to the fact that KD does not take more shots than he should and also shows what an efficient scorer he is. Granted this HAS nothing to do with his defensive inefficiencies, which are obvious and need to change for him and this team to be truly competitive. I don't believe that it is fair to judge him as a black hole not even two seasons into his career because, for comparisons' sake, it took LBJ what five years to become a committed excellent defender? He didn't even try through his first few years...
Exactly Keith. I'm going to try and delve into this more later today, but this Ewing Theory stuff is bunk in terms of Durant.
Before these 4 wins, and even with them, this team is overall a -6. That should say all one needs to know about one player's impact. The team has been very very bad before Jan 1, and stats don't take into account the difference. Yeah, if you compare the past 5 games to the whole season, these games look spectacular. Compare the past 5 games to the Thunder in 2009, and the difference will be almost nonexistent. As it's been said, the Thunder beat two teams they were already better than (an even more depleted Wizards squad and the ever underachieving Grizzlies). They also beat a Dallas team that they would have defeated only a week earlier if Durant hadn't been hurt and a Philly team that hasn't beaten an even mediocre team since the beginning of February.
Most importantly, this is not about Ewing Theory 2.0. This is about a team finally figuring out what it takes to win. The rest of the team can't sit around and just hope Durant or Westbrook win the game for them. Durant can't just stand around on defense and hope someone catches his defender for him. The team knows now that it has to move the ball, that it has to commit on every play at both ends of the floor. And I think we all know that if such a thing happens, there won't be a team in the league we can't beat.
I think it's true that the Thunder are playing great defense right now, and subpar offense. It's also true that Durant may be our worst big minute defender. Fair enough. But like Spike said above, the defensive two (first Mason and then Thabo) made a big improvement in team defense and the team was roughly .500 with Mason in there. Thabo and Durant haven't played much minutes together (one game I think).
All that I accept, but what needs to be said is that Durant has played a total of 137 NBA games. The improvement from last year to this has been fantastic, and there is no reason to believe that Durant won't continue to get better and better defensively. He's only 20 years old, and to compare his defense now, to what it will eventually be as a mature veteran doesn't accomplish anything. His defensive rating has improved marginally from last year to this, and he has acknowledged that defense is where he needs the work. I think he will put in the work and become a decent defender soon; especially as the culture of defense on this team becomes established.
You boys and your fancy statistics can go back and forth all you want, but the difference between young Mr. Durant and Granger and Marbury is he CAN LEARN DEFENSE!! The difference these last five games is not-no KD-it is more Thabo! If Durant can learn some defensive moves and intensity, he is going to be one for the history books. And, truthfully, it is his innocent, self-effacing character which gives me such hope that he CAN learn this from the coaching staff, and by watching what has developed during his injury. He is a smart kid, and a student of the game, I can't wait to see what he does with this experience!
My boxscore macro wasn't working last night, so I didn't learn the pace until just now. I can't believe the Thunder gave up only 74 points in a 91-possession game.
As far as Durant's presence or absence, the key here is a strong defensive 2-guard, obviously. Not whether Durant plays or not. The Thunder were winning plenty of games until Mason went out with his injury. Then they started losing because their defense suffered miserably. They get Thabo to fill that role, suddenly they're winning games again.
97 points per 100 possessions is a poor number. With Durant out, their offensive efficiency has suffered. They had a similar offensive efficiency number against the Hornets. And with Thabo out, they gave up like 120 points per 100 against them.
You're not going to win consistently with offensive efficiency in the 95-103 range like they've had with Durant out.
They key is to maintain the defensive presence with Durant and Green back in.
Finally, when evaluating Durant, it's important to ignore stats that occurred while Carlesimo was coach. He's a different player the past 3 months with much higher rebounding, assists, and steals since Brooks took over. Durant played miserably in November. So badly it's still dragging down his season stats.
Thunder in 5th for lottery right now and probably more likely to drift to 6-7th than 4th or lower.
At 5th about a 30% chance of a top 3 pick and 70% 5th-8th.
At 6th the chance at top 3 drops almost 10%.
At 4th the chance of top 3 increase almost 10% and there is another 10% at the 4th not present if you are 5th.
The difference between 4th and 5th worst for lottery placement is pretty big by the odds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nba_draft_lottery
Actually pick 3rd you might get Jordan Hill.
After 3rd you probably are getting a role player.
The picture says D fence. Is Presti thinking Durant plus a defensive fence? It isn't that simple and that exactly probably doesn't work. But D and fence both need to be there, With lots more offense. Team offense.
Durant is learning but so far you can say that playing fast with a very weak team 3 point game isn't working well on offense at least for season. So why not try more control and bring in and use more 3 pt game? With more ball movement and control maybe (just maybe) you end up with Durant in more of an iso or even open and with more of a 3 point game maybe you get bigger lanes to the paint and fewer guys sluffing off to help on or prevent KD drives.
KD without Green is 4 pts better on D than with.
Especially true for roland rating where Durant is +3.4 and near other good players like Rudy Fernandez and Richard Hamilton but is ranked very far below players from good teams.
@Peter
Scoring rank - PER rank is extremely flawed since the top few scorers are clustered very closely and the scoring does not account for pace. You mentioned Kobe specifically but he plays in one of the fastest teams in the NBA. Add the fact that he plays in the triangle where no one player generates a lot of assists and PER is artificially lowered. Anyways, PER is based on all the stats and at best, the only thing you'll learn from what you did is which players "earn" the bulk of their PER through scoring. Your whole argument is invalid and unfair to anyone who plays in a role that gives them few chances at rebounds or assists (KD, Brandon Roy).
You're probably in bed by now in OKC. I'm in California. So I'll continue. Following the same idea as the last comment, take the player's rank as a top-10 scorer, and subtract his Roland Ratings rank on 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/0809/ROLRTG8.HTM). Drumroll please ... here are the results:
1. Wade: -1
2. LeBron: +1
3. Kobe: -1
4. Durant: -57 (!)
5. Nowitski: -5
6. Granger: -19
7. Jefferson: -31
8. Roy: 0
9. Bosh: -25
10. Harris: -34
OK. I know what you're thinking: The top scorers with numbers in single digits are on the winning teams; those on losing teams have double digit numbers. True enough.
But notice that among the 5 top-ten scorers on losing teams, Durant's number is WAY worse than anyone else's.
Just to confirm this isn't an anomaly, note that for every player in the top-ten in scoring -- except for Durant -- that player leads his own team in Roland Rating (not counting the guys on the team getting 0% or 1% minutes). Indeed, for LeBron, Wade, Granger, and Jefferson, their Roland Rating is orders of magnitude higher than that of the next best guy on their own team.
But with OKC, however, Westbrook has a higher Roland Rating than Durant (5.8 to 3.4).
Note that if Durant had Westbrook's Roland Rating, his score here would be only -31 ... very much in line with the numbers for the other top-10 scorers on losing teams.
But it's not. It's -57!
This is Durant's DNA. It's all over the Ewing Theory crime scene. If he wasn't such a sweet guy, and was, instead, more of an asshole like Marbury, these numbers would be redundant. Everybody would know it.
Fair enough Royce. It does seem hard to believe. But I spent the last 20 minutes comparing the NBA scoring leaders against the NBA PER leaders. PER is supposed to capture the overall value of a player. Assuming that's true, check out the following:
Take a player's rank among the top scorers, and subtract his rank among the top PERs. e.g. LeBron is #2 in scoring, and #1 in PER, so his score is 2 - 1 = +1. Got it so far? Here's how the top ten scorers in the NBA fair on this measure:
1. Wade: -1
2. LeBron: +1
3. Kobe: -2
4. Durant: -13
5. Nowitski: -6
6. Granger: -14
7. Jefferson: -2
8. Roy: +1
9. Bosh: -6
10. Harris: -2
I think this score means: "Given all the oxygen this player is sucking up by shooting so much, what total value does he bring to the game?"
LeBron, Roy, Wade, Kobe, Jefferson, and Harris (not to mention Paul and Howard) stand out as truly valuable. Nowitski and Bosh are second-tier guys. And KD and Granger show up as, well, black holes.
Black holes never win. Just look at Kobe, Mr. Black Hole himself. When he pulls his own game back, and lets his teammates step up, the Lakers are all but unbeatable. But when he goes all Kobe all the time on us, the Celtics (and Spurs and Cavs) lick their chops.
I know people are thinking that, but OKC was playing better with Durant in the lineup too. They caught some poor teams in this stretch and three of the four at home, where OKC has been pretty good lately.
And don't forget, Jeff Green has been out as well. One thing is that the team has elevated its defense without both in the lineup and picked up slack. Plus, Thabo has made a huge impact. While it's hard to argue about the current results, I'm not ready to say this team is better without KD and Jeff Green on the floor. I don't think anyone could make that case honestly.
Nice job with the analysis and all of the statistics. But with all of that analysis, not even one little of mention of Bill's Simmons' man-crush dude? I think Simmons and you Thunder fans are silent because the facts are shocking and undeniable: Move over Patrick, the Durant Theory is here. Scary thought, isn't it? I mean, KD, the best kept secret in basketball until all-star weekend. And he turns out to be krytonite to Ws! He turns out to be the nice-guy version of Stephon Marbury, Allen Iverson. Just writing this feels like pissing on a Jesus statue or something. But going back to his days at Texas, and these past 5 games, the statistical case is becoming uncomfortably undeniable.
That would be awesome, but with home games against San Antonio (x2), Utah and Portland (the others are beatable), that could be tough.
Though that is pretty incredible. Since Dec. 31, OKC is 11-6 at home with a couple of really tight losses.
Also, that block Thabo had on Thaddeus Young at the end was the perfect capper. What a sweet "Nothing easy" play.
Brian Davis pointed out tonight, that if the Thunder win their last 8 home games, they would be over 500 at home. Who would have thought we could be even close to 500 at home. We can thank Thabo, he has brought our defense alive sense the lost of Mason. The white shirts dominate under the basket, it was a sight to see.
And how about Earl. Every now and again he can pull one out of you know where.
The fact we only gave up 74 points is pretty awesome. And had Philly not hit a meaningless three and taken an uncontested layup, it would have been 69. That's incredible. We've given up that many at the HALF a couple of times.
Great defense and I'll tell ya, Thabo is quickly becoming maybe my favorite player. He's completely changed our look defensively and he's a better offensive player than he gets credit for.