Last night’s scrappy victory over the Grizzlies on the road put an end to the month of February in the Thunder’s innagural season. By most standards it was a rough month for our guys; 3 wins out of 12 games. It was a definite let down after the Thunder’s first winning month of January, where the team seemed to pull it all together and go 7-7.
What happened in February that made it so bleak when there was so much success in January? The simple answer is that the level of competition increased.
In October the Thunder only played one game, a loss to Milwaukee. In November however we played 17 games and won a mere 2 of them. November was a tough, and it was the month that Coach P.J. was fired, leaving Brooks to coach the last five games of that month. Of our 17 opponents, 10 were at or above a .500 record (59%).
In December we played 15 games and also won only 2. The team was in most all of the games and some momentum began to build. Of the 15 opponents, 8 had winning records (53%).
January was our breakout month where we saw some fruit of the labors. We won 7 of the 14 games that month, and four others were losses by 3 points or less. Of the 14 opponents, 7 had winning records (50%).
And that brings us to February. February had 12 games, of which we won just 3. Of the 12 opponents we faced, 8 of them were teams with winning records (66%), the toughest month of our season to date. Click here to see a breakdown of the Thunder’s month by month performance.
February was indeed our month of stiffest competition. The teams we faced are getting into their playoff mode and are battling for the seeding. The stiffer competition showed in our offensive and defensive efficiency, where going from a postitive efficiency differential (offensive efficiency-defensive efficiency) of .7 in January to a -4.6 in February.
As you can see, our offense has continuously improved as the season has progressed, to the point that we averaged 109.6 points/100 possessions in February, which would be top ten in the league if held for the season. Unfortunately our defense definitely took a step back against the stiffer competition, dropping to an ungainly 114.2 points/100 allowed, which would be dead last.
The lower table shows we also had our best month shooting the ball and limiting our opponent’s shooting in January. February was a step back in both areas; most notably opponent’s shooting almost 50% from the field and 40% from three.
With that being said, what do we have to look forward to this month with our superstar out for an extended period? Well, we have 15 games in March, and it is just as tough as February, with 10/15 opponents having winning records (66%). 8 of the games are on the road. In April we do get it a bit easier with only 8 games to finish the season, 4 of which are teams with winning records.
Late Kidd is a potentially suitable comparison for Rubio. I don't think he will have a DeRon Williams type game or stat line.
Yeah Joe I saw Henry's article. If you go from efficient slow to faster still efficient then Nate has done a very good long-term job on offense.
I'd think it is easier to do that than to go from inefficient-fast to efficient anything like the early Thunder pattern but wait n see.
@K
Exactly. Westbrook isn't a big SG, but he's not tiny either. He plays big and has great length. He could easily guard twos nightly. And yes, it seems that to be that the best passing/shooting PGs aren't known for their defense, but let's no peg anyone as being a liability just yet.
@Crow
That's a very good point about the PF position. In the past, PFs were just centers who weren't big enough in the NBA. Now, the center position has become more specialized, and the PF needs to be more well-rounded to compensate. PFs still need to be big, but they also need to be able to shoot, be able to block or contest shots in the paint, run the floor, and rebound. PFs these days need to be SFs who can bang inside, not necessarily Cs who take outside shots sometimes.
And while you're entitled to your opinion on Rubio, I really disagree on Rubio. Overrated assumes he's not as good as advertised. Rubio has never been advertised to be an Durant, Paul, Lebron, or Kobe talent, just that he could be a Deron Williams (always thought highly of, but can't carry a team single-handedly). Rubio reminds me a lot of Jason Kidd (though with a better shot). He finds teammates and makes passes that even watching from an above angle you might not have seen. He is always looking to help his teammates, and is an incredibly smart player overall. I think he's the most complete player in the draft, and is also the youngest - giving him plenty of time to improve.
I wouldn't take him over Griffin, but there's no one else I would say is better. It should be noted that while Harden is considered a pretty good defender in college, he is the same height as Rubio and is scouted as having the same athleticism.
Keith, I totally agree with your idea of going D'Antoni run and gun. It would really suit this team. And you are right about RW not being a "see everybody PG", he's just not. In your Suns scenario, RW is more like Barbosa than anybody (only a better finisher without as good a jumpshot), equally fast. Rw is a better defender.
I watched Calathes about 3 weeks ago. He is the heart and soul of that team and he is still pretty darn efficient. He is sort of a combo guy as well, and hot what I would really call a true pg though. I like the Lawson idea. It might really work to get a pass first pg who can nail the open three and then let RW free lance.
I agree Crow, Green has really stepped up. One game recently, can't remember which one, Brooks posted up Green repeatedly. They kept re-posting him until he got his shot and he did very well. Then the next game they don't even go there and the only time he gets near the basket is in transition.
And I still don't think Brooks has figured out how to use Krstic. All he is to Brooks is a long pick and popper. If you look at his NBA.com hot spots and his 82games.com profile from a few years ago with NJ, he only shot about 45% of his shots as long twos. Now that's almost all he does under Brooks.
This draft and off season will be huge; and it will tell us more about which way this team will play.
Crow, did you read the truehoop post today about the Blazers? We all know that McMillan always plays slow, but recently he has them running and they are just killing people.
I think Rubio is way overrated. Maybe he is good enough pick at 4 or 5 though. Might fit what they need.
I have heard a little about Nick Calethes. Will probably look into him more.
If you look at who Green chews up it is generally those who are 6-9 and under or 25 years old and under. The future is going to be more of that in both respects.
Nice take, Keith.
I do think Westbrook spending more minutes at the 2 is a worthy experiment. RW is certainly DWade-like in his build and ability to get to the free throw line. DWade is a 2.
The great thing is that RW's ability to guard point guards very well would mean that Calethes/Rubio would only need to guard the slower/taller of the two opposing guards allowing Brooks to limit the damage from their defensive limitations.
The PF position is changing stylistically and in terms of # of top quality guys there so Green might fit better with the future of that position than the now or sensibilities about it based on the past.
Westbrook-Durant-Green may or may not work but at least it is ambitious and going for big. It probably won't be just "nice". It will be more than that or less.
Green's Feb. gives him more respect (2nd good overall shooting month and 3rd of 4 from 3 pt land) and legitimacy at PF (9 rebs) and best month passing at 2.7 assists per game. Presti may indeed have gotten the "best' player at 5. But still not necessarily the right fit. Time will tell.
Presti and Brooks should take a page out of the Colangelo-D'Antoni book. This team is not built to be the Spurs, it is built to be the Suns. And that's not a bad thing. The Suns had home-court advantage how many times in how many series? The Suns were one Tim Duncan three (seriously, who expected that to go in) or one Horry punking away from the WCF or Finals. The fact isn't that the Suns game doesn't work, it's that the Spurs are one of the best teams in history.
How did the Suns do it? Big men who could shoot, rebound, and run the pick & roll (Green and likely an addition), one of them primarily known for being a defender (Marion); A do it all SF without any glaring weakness (Durant); A super fast and defensive specialist SG tandem (Westbrook); and a PG who saw everyone on the floor and had a fantastic outside shot (anyone on this team?).
Now, obviously it wouldn't be a perfect revival, but the Thunder could easily see it happen. Assuming the Thunder could find such a Nash-like PG, I think they would be even better than the Suns. Durant is a better player than anyone the Suns have had, Green is a better shooter than Amare and can run the pick and roll just as well (an amalgam of Marion and Amare on offense), and Westbrook is the defensive specialist who covers the best opposing guard. The fact that Westbrook can get into the paint at will is a bonus that can be used to make up for the fact that he's not a shooter (unlike all the Suns). Now we just need to find a PG who can see the floor and shoot, as well as a center who can D up opposing centers as well as play the pick.
Just some ideas
Top Pick:
1) Blake Griffin - Kind of obvious being the best play in college with a good post/pick game and who is certainly capable of being a very good defender.
2) Ricky Rubio - Not the best outside shooter around, but finds teammates and makes plays with a Jason Kidd-like ability. Also very young and getting better all the time.
Late Pick:
1) Ty Lawson - 50% shooter from 3, is already accustomed to looking for other players over his own shots. Used to playing in a fast paced system and running the pick. Rather small.
2) Nick Calathes - Great shooter with incredible court vision. Very Nash-like game, both the good and the bad. Trouble guarding quick players.
There don't seem to be many good big men in the draft, so I think the Thunder will have to trade for an established center who can play solid defense (Chandler is still going to be shopped in the offseason) and take on extra salary.
Those plays highlight how the pieces can work together.
A PG who maxes out Durant and perhaps Green first and gets his share off that action vs a PG going for his own or focuses on his own game and lets them gets theirs largely on their own. Those are the poles, which one will Westbrook be nearest long-term? It matters, may be pivotal. Maybe Westbrook learns to do both and know when to do one or the other. That would be best but there is danger with the second option, especially if it limits the development of the first.
I certainly think the Thunder should look to tweak the way they play their game, but I also think it's important to establish an identity with a young team. That's why my changes all could work within the current idea of the team (well, besides the last one).
If Westbrook is really a PG who can set up Durant, Green, and himself, then let's see it happen. He shouldn't be so trigger happy when he's playing with established, efficient scorers like Durant and Green.
If Durant is going to be the superstar, then let's see him make his team better like a Lebron, not be a stat-stuffer like young-Kobe or AI.
If Green is really a PF, let's see him bang inside, getting the team points in the paint, and opening up the wings for slashers and shooters.
The Thabo-Westbrook pairing just isn't that great an idea while neither have a reliable outside shot. It may not have appeared so bad against two bad defensive teams, but don't let the results against a historically poor shooting PG who can't defend fast players (Kidd) and a couple rookies (Mayo and Conley, who still rather plays like a rookie) sway the reality of the issue.
I firmly believe that this offseason is going to be the determining factor of whether the Thunder go the Portland route (build from the ground up to form a contender with interlocking pieces) or go the Cleveland route (hope your superstar makes you competitive while never surrounding him with the right pieces until he's all but gone). If Presti brings in a big man to rebound, defend, and score (in that order) down low, and brings in (or Westbrook becomes) a smart, good passing PG with an outside shot, this team could be in the playoffs by next year. If Presti keeps trying to turn Westbrook into Tony Parker, Durant into Manu Ginobli, and Green into Tim Duncan (which is impossible since Duncan is a center), then this will always be an exciting team that never quite puts it together.
My dream possessions down the stretch of a Thunder game.
1) PG#1 runs the pick and roll with Green. Defending big is forced to move out to contest PG#1 (because he's a great outside shooter). PG#1 bounces a pass behind the defending big to a streaking Green who slams it home over a smaller defender, also drawing an "and 1." (Seriously, how many times have you wished to see an easy play like that but failed to see the proper timing or reliable shooting?)
2) Westbrook is having a good game. Without the pressure of looking for passes all the time, he is able to focus on defending his man and making the most of drives when the lane opens up and his PG finds him. He gets the ball on the right side and flashes to the top of the key. Durant is standing above the free throw line in what looks like will be a hand off. But wait, Durant is actually setting a screen and Westbrook curls around him towards the hoop. Both defenders stick to Durant and Westbrook makes an easy, uncontested layup.
3) Same as 2 but Durant's man rotates to Westbrook. As the defender has a huge reach advantage, Westbrook DOESN'T force the shot that is likely blocked or tipped, instead he throws the ball behind his head to where he KNOWS Durant will have rotated to. Durant easily nails a three over a much smaller defender who is still discombobulated by the screen.
4) Durant is a little off tonight with his shot, but is still getting by or over his defender at will. With the game on the line, everyone knows the ball will be in his hands. Durant starts on the left, he takes a quick step (pushing away the defender) then pulls back, but he fakes the shot (defender already jumped) and drives past his man. The opposing center rotates over to contest the shot 8 feet out. Durant pulls up early and the center leaps. The ball seems to fall under the rim, was it blocked? No, Durant had tossed the ball down to Collison/Krstic/Green/Griffin under the basket who easily dunks or draws a foul. Thunder win a close one because Durant makes the smart play, though not necessarily the play ESPN wanted to see.
If Presti does not know what he is aiming for in 2 years he is nothing special in the job. So far it is not a make the playoffs in today's west, much less contend design in formation but he is somewhere around half done on the mixing / cooking clock.
A lot to digest. I wonder if Presti/Brooks are thinking like this, or if they (he) is busy accumulating the ingredients and then putting it all together and making cake later?
I see we share support for some of these moves Keith.
Joe Smith gone.
A traditional PG seems unlikely at the but is one option.
Forbes might be the modest minute shooter.
Or a PF who is long and quick enough to be a good defender or a tweener with 3 point range.
Or...
Another tiny glimpse into Sam's thinking.
Really interesting article. I think there are certainly a few specific things the Thunder can do to improve and better develop their players.
1) Give Westbrook a mandate that he's not allowed to shoot more times than he has assists. This is two fold - on one hand it forces Westbrook to look to pass all the time, on the other it limits his highly inefficient shots.
2) Run the offense through Durant as a point-forward, test his passing ability and court sense. He always seems to be ahead of the opponent on offense, so use that ability and let him make the plays for others as well as himself.
3) Have Green play the center position on offense. He can't really defend centers, but he seems a more capable scorer than any other big, so get him close to the basket more often and make for easier shots.
4) Limit the Westbrook-Sefolosha time together on the court. Both can't space the defense and are primarily defensive players. It is problematic against good defensive teams when they can sag off two players effectively.
5) Something needs to be addressed on the defensive end. Wing players need to fight harder through screens, and forwards need to give more quick help before rotating off. A good example is to look at good defensive college teams. Their bigs will always shoot out for a second and put a hand in opponents' faces as the opponent moves around a pick. It gives their wing teammate an extra second to get back in position.
6) Run and gun if the shots are falling but motivate players to force opposing turnovers if shots are not falling. A problem with the team is that it seems lost if it isn't winning with offense. This team is not good enough to force it's way upon opposing teams, it must do what is effective when it is effective, regardless of what it prefers.
Have Westbrook harass the PG from the moment he gets the ball in bounds. Have Durant jump doubleteam guys a lot and see what happens. See if Thabo can pop some guys free with screens. Play Durant in the post.
Try Green as a power guard and post him up. If it works maybe tell him to lose 15 pounds in the offseason.
Try some games where you foul and disrupt the stars relentlessly. Try some games where you tell the players you shoot here and her and here and never ever here and here. Maybe give Wilkins another shot but at backup smallball PF.
Try shooting 20-25 3s in a game. Try to find a way for backdoor lobs. Try getting Krstic some 15 shot games. Have Westbrook try some 8 shot games. Tell Green to figure out some 5 assist games. Have Durant try for some 10 assist nights. Design some new plays or outright steal more from successful teams. Play some sub 90 pace games.
Experiment. Try Weaver at PG for 6-8 minute stretches. Try Krstic-Swift. Try Durant for an entire game at PF. Or Green some at center. One way or the other try some 10 days.