The Thunder have been nothing if not a team in transition all season. I’m not sure what version we are on but change has been constant. First we had a coaching change after game 13. During P.J.’s little sip of water with the Thunder this season the team was absolutely anemic on offense (92.5 offensive rating) and a bit above average defensively, using a lot of gimmicky zone defense (105.7 defensive rating). The offense was beyond terrible, running and gunning but inefficient and only scoring more than 90 points 4 times in those thirteen games, and only going over 100 once. Blowouts were the norm. I guess that was Thunder version 1.0.
Next came version 2.0 with Scotty Brooks in charge. The offense immediately took a huge jump in efficiency. Spacing was improved and the team began to attack the basket and get a bit slower and more deliberate. The defense meanwhile was completely destructed. The zone defense was sent to the shelf, double teaming was rare, and man to man was the order of the day. The results were pretty spotty. In Brooks’ first dozen or so games the defense performed terribly, but it was sort of overshadowed by so much offensive improvement. The team began to get blown out a lot less frequently.
Brooks also was tweaking the lineup. Out of the rotation were Johan Petro, Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkins. Durant went to the small forward position, Green the starter at the 3, and Collison manned the post. Desmond Mason finally solidified himself as our best defensive two, and Westbrook moved in as the starting 1. Things began to gel.
The team lit fire around the coming of the New Year and began to play .500 ball, which is saying something when you start the season 3-29. The team also plucked Nenad Krstic from Euro purgatory and began working him in. Brooks brought in assistant Ron Adams to help with defense.
Desmond Mason went down in late January, but the team kept up it’s winning ways for the most part by playing above average offense and just enough defense. Kyle Weaver stepped in and the team adjusted.
Late in February and early in March found the Thunder without Kevin Durant and Jeff Green for a series of games due to injuries. Even the most optimistic Thunder fans probably thought that we would be fodder for every team in the league, but you know the story: The Thunder won 5/7 games without Durant and Green led by stingy team defense and crazy individual defense from Thabo Sefolosha picked up from Chicago on a trade deadline deal.
During that stretch of games without Durant (and some which Green missed) the offense was a bit below average, but not horribly so, but again, the defense was otherworldly by Thunder standards.
But now that Green and Durant are back in the fold, the defense has actually held up comparatively well with the defense played without them, but the offense has disappeared. Everyone including me was probably expecting the defense to stink and the offense to catch fire with Green and Durant, but just the opposite has happened.
I’ve been keeping a running tally of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions) by the Thunder all season. I ran the numbers after last night’s game with Utah and the numbers validated what I thought I was seeing: the offense has been missing with Durant and Green in the lineup.
Here is the breakdown of the efficiency numbers for the season, broken down into four game blocks and separated from the first thirteen games coached by P.J..
As you can see, the differential between offense and defense has steadily improved under Brooks. Where the differential is closest, or positive you see it reflected in the win/loss column.
I think it’s fair to say that the lineup of Westbrook, Thabo, Durant, Green and Krtic is struggling to find it’s mojo. My first reaction is that perhaps Thabo isn’t gelling with the other four the way Desmond Mason and Kyle Weaver did. Thabo has the third highest individual offensive rating on the team (109) just behind Durant and Collison, and the team lead in defensive rating (104). His offense and defense both outshine Weaver’s and Mason’s, yet for whatever reason, the team is struggling with this new lineup. I have my opinions about why this may be, but I am going to wait a bit more than the four games so far and see they validate themselves.
Opinions?
DJ White had twenty points, eight rebounds, two assists, two blocks, two steals, and only one turnover last night for the 66ers. I think I might call him up after one more game.
Yeah, actually unless Presti can find a way to trade off Watson in the offseason (like he did with Ridnour), Watson is likely with us until the deadline next season. Next season being his last under contract, and at 6 mil expiring, he has more value next season than this season.
Chucky is a stop gap and isn't here long in my opinion. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Presti use one of our firsts this draft (probably the late one) on a true pass first point guard. He was reputed as the one who mined for Tony Parker late in the first round years ago. This draft has a lot of point guard possibilities.
If you are going to keep Brooks and fast pace and KD-Green as the foundation then maybe you go after Iavoroni as top assistant. And study what Dallas, Atlanta and Indiana do right and wrong, especially at the forward spots.
If you could get them to give up the fast pace and trying to be like Portland (need lots of 3 pt shooting for that and they don't have it and seemingly think they can do it without it which won't happen) and KD-Green as the foundation and Brooks as the coach...
not going to happen... soon...
you could maybe try to get them to be like the Pistons. Probably not the original bad boys but the modern success Pistons with a slow defensive first team with enough offense. If you could find a Billups instead of a Stuckey to run it.
If, if if.
If Durant is going to stand around on the perimeter a lot instead of cutting without the ball (not saying this is most desirable but to some extent you shape things to how players are not how you want them to be- if you can't or won't tell them they must do something and get it done) then he must take and make more 3s. I'd tell him he has to take at least 5 3s a game the rest of the season and see how he does.
Looking at top offenses most of the very best get to the line a lot and offensive rebound well. Presti has them at that level of these. Own turnovers is a bit surprisingly not that big a priority or result for top offensive teams so I can't fault the Thunder for not being good here but you'd want to try to get to average. The biggest deficiency or challenge is raising team eFG% or really eFG% differential - what they shoot compared to what they give up. Thabo may be a better defender than most on team but he really doesn't provide eFG% differential. Westbrook won't be as big a plus as he could be until he raises his eFG5 and produces more eFG% differential more often.
Watson the way he has played this season shouldn't shoot much or play much. The main team who might have interest in Watson in off-season is Atlanta with GM Rick Sund and Bibby perhaps being too pricey or old to bring back under terms he'd take. Maybe Philly if A Miller walks. Other than that I think Watson is on the team next season until a trade deadline giveaway for expiring not desirables to a contending team in need or a buyout.
@jk
I agree 110% with your post.
Yeah, thanks guys. I totally couldn't see it. Perhaps I'm finally getting down with that male associated color-blindness.
I am a Thunder fan from day one, even though when they were BAD... Well, they are not quite in a good level yet neither. But, at least they fought for everything and every win was hard fought. However, I am really think the point guard position is where the Thunder most needed. And that's why they are playing more like a one on one play all the time instead of team offense. There is no team offense in Thunder.
I am not trying to pick on a rookie but, Westbrook is terrible, even though he is a rookie and he shouldn't be playing the mins that he is playing. They should put Earl as the starter because he is doing what a point guard should do at the very least. Earl can show the way and teach Westbrook how to be a point guard. Don't tell me a point guard is someone who always cut into the lane without using his brain and lose it, or put up the shot right after passing the center court. Man, he is A.I. type of point guard, "shoot first then pass".
How could his teammate play team offense if the point guard is not trying to set up anything? The way they play offense is very much 90% ONE ON ONE offense. Good that KD and Green both can do some one on one offense.
I actually found KD is a more willing passer than Westbrook, and do a better job. KD pass the ball when he is double teamed but Westbrook always try to force it in. Also, KD pass the ball in a fast break for the easy basket. But Westbrook likes dribble the ball up court in a fast break and lose it from bumping into the defense.
The only difference is, most of the time at half court when KD pass the ball to his wide opened teammates and they miss. For Westbrook, he pass the ball when KD is doing the screen and roll. I am sure it's quite easy to register an assist if you are passing the ball to a 48% shooter and the 4th best scoring in the league.
Also, I can't quite understand why he was Defensive Player of Pac 10!? He can't guard, and the Thunder's defense collapse starting at the guards.
I know the plan is developing the young guys but point guard is very important position. I hope Westbrook will turn around and grow as much as KD did in the sec year. Otherwise, I think it might take longer because Thunder become a real good team.
Let me first say I am a Durant Fan from the start. That is the reason
I'm a Thunder fan in the first place. But here are observation over the two years he has been a pro. First I would have agree with j that he will
not cut to the lane when the ball is on opposite side of the court. I will
go one step further he is not even engaged in the offence when the ball
is not on his side of the court. He mostly stands there with his hands by
his side. The second he rarely ever follows his shot or any others shot
to be exact for a offensive rebound. I Have seen him have hundreds opportunities to go for put backs but he just doesn’t. The third thing he gives up on defensive plays and dose not try to challenge shots like Labron and his body clone Tay Prince. Now after all that negative I really think it not all his fault. It's just buy product of building a team the way we have young, no veteran player who have ever been close to as good as he is, new organization with no history with no old player to tell him how to play the right way. This is big for this team, we someone in this organization quick with a rep that he respects before he get the big head and it to late. It could be some like Ewing did Yoe and
Howard.
@jk
Nice analysis JK. I never really thought about it but you are right, KD doesn't do much without the ball. He doesn't cut to the basket or set many screens. Mostly he stands there with his arms raised calling for the ball.
@Keith
As Alex pointed out, if you click on the blue hypertext it will open up a google doc chart.
If Durant-Green is still weak next season I'd think it would be time to re-evaluate it as the core. If it doesn't work in 2 1/2 years I don't think it wouldn't make the best sense to keep trying to fix it. If it still as it is now next January admit that it wasn't the right core pairing. And change it. Bringing Green off the bench or have them swap positions or get a stronger vet PG who tells them what to do and how hard or do a trade. Can Presti re-assess his first and biggest decision and admit that it didn't work? It still could but the clock continues to tick.
How much have Brooks and Presti really figured out about using these 2? Durant's only positive player pair for all lineupsis with Malik Rose in 24 minutes. Green with Sene in 1 minute.
It appears pretty tricky to be good with both on the floor at the same time. Too tricky.
KD-Thabo was in the range of -10 again. Probably so were some of the other core pairs. The current starting lineup continues to be dramatically bad. A short stretch of games can go that way by chance but they'll have to assess things at the end of the year or perhaps try a few other combos harder now too to check them and chew on the results and the implications over the summer and before the next decisions.
A simple adjustment might be to starter Weaver and have Sefolosha come in for Weaver or occasionally Durant or Green if they are not doing something right. That lineup is -2 on adjusted in 72 minutes of use. Nothing to get excited about but far better than -33 with the current starting lineup. Maybe close to neutral is the best you can do right now playing with both Durant & Green. Actually Watson Westbrook Durant Green Collison is +4. I don't think Brooks / Presti want to go back to that though for political reason right now. But if Earl will be or is still with the team next season they might want to try it some more. Substitute Krstic for Collison and it is still +2. Westbrook at SG, not running the show. Just being Westbrook may be part of it. Watson-Weaver did even better with the rest of the lineup so Westbrook at SG may not as much the secret as the ball-handling guard combo.
@jk
excellent post jk . . .
Joe,
Real good post. I was actually at all three games this week and noticed several things and I'm not sure my thoughts are going to be entirely popular.
I think the problems reside with KD. He doesn't move on offense. He slides around perimeter and will only enter the paint when he catches the ball from the perimeter and he drives. There were several times in yesterday's game when Weaver, Westbrook and Thabo were trying to get KD to cut and slash, but he didn't do it. Last night KD set a ball-screen for a teammate, and I thought to myself, 'I've never seen that before.' As good as KD is at scoring the ball, he's not a great "team offense" player.
I've actually thought that Russell has played better here lately than he did in February. He's sharing the ball better, guys just aren't finishing (see KD's missed alley-oop) and I have never felt better with him handling the ball than I do now. He's now just really struggling with his on-ball defense which I think will be much better next year. On defense, he gets into bad habits of not getting into a defensive stance and crafty guards like the ones he saw this week will take advantage of his poor defensive stance.
Another item that we are WOEFUL at is our outlet passing. We really have a tough time pushing the ball up the court because our team (everyone included, not just Kristic and Collison) aren't very good at passing the ball to halfcourt off of a defensive rebound. This is something that should lead to about 10 more easy points per game. I have some theories though why we are so terrible at this. First, the coaches are seeming to try and implement a more stable offense with less do-it-myself plays. Secondly, RW crashes the boards so hard that there aren't many times where he is ready to catch the ball at halfcourt.
So there are some of my thoughts, but I don't think the problems lie with Nenad, Thabo or Jeff (although him hitting his shots again would be really nice). It lies with Russell's continued development of a point guard and KD's lack of team offensive feel.
Click on the blue words...
Is it just me or did you not put up any charts?
As for the offensive ineptitude, I have a few ideas. First, I don't think we can overlook that Westbrook is turning it over more this month than any other time this year. Also, the combination of players kind of makes sense. When Green and Durant were down, it was the Westbrook show with guys who hadn't grown to expect shots and therefore took the best ones available when they came. When Green and Durant came back, the offensive movement and overall efficiency died down as Westbrook turned it over and defenses knew who to collapse on much more.