When you start winning some games (how does FIVE of SIX sound my friends?), it’s not always just about winning the game, but it’s also a little bit about how you win. Well, that’s not entirely true because as long as the Thunder has one more point than the other team when the clock says zero, I’m happy (which was exactly the case tonight).
But OKC had some defensive lapses early, didn’t rebound in the second quarter, gave away a 10-point lead in what seemed like seconds and played a sloppy fourth quarter and at a point sometime in the fourth, I told myself, “Win or lose, I’m not that thrilled about this game.” But then the Thunder made a slew of big plays down the stretch and edged out Sacramento 99-98 and let me tell you, I really don’t care about semi-lackluster first 43 minutes. The last five were excellent.
The Kings took a 92-91 lead on a Rashad McCants free throw with 4:56 left in the game after the two teams had exchanged buckets on the last four possessions. And this game kind of had the feeling of, “Here we go, let’s watch OKC blow this down the stretch.” But the Thunder came up with big stop after big stop holding the game at one. Nenad Krstic stopped Spencer Hawes at the rim. Then after Jeff Green turned it over for a second straight possession, Hawes got tagged for a moving pick. Russell Westbrook then missed a little runner in the lane and the Kings’ Will Soloman streaked at the bucket. But Krstic was there again for a monster stop at the rim, denying Soloman. OKC couldn’t cash in after a McCants steal but AGAIN, the Thunder came up with a stop contesting a Bobby Jackson jumper and securing the rebound.
Finally the Thunder broke through as Earl Watson missed a reverse layup but Krispy Nads was there for put-back to giving OKC the lead for good, 93-92. (Then for good measure, OKC got another stop and Krstic got another offensive rebound and put it in. 95-92.
It was really a crazy sequence of events. It was one of those stretches where the Thunder could have easily been down eight with no chance and relegated to heaving threes, or they could have been up eight cruising to the buzzer. But instead, it came down to the wire and the Thunder made a play or two more than Sacramento and that was the difference.
Tyson Chandler? We don’t need no stinking Tyson Chandler! We’ve got Nenad Krstic! Krispy had a very Chandler-ish line with nine points, 15 rebounds (career high) and three blocks. His jumper wasn’t falling for nothing (3-10 from the field), but he realized there was more to contribute than just his sweet 18-footer. Nick Collison was out with a groin strain and somebody had to step up. And with that sort of being the theme for this team the past two weeks, Krstic stepped up big time and grabbed all the gritty rebounds you typically see Nick get.
(An interesting trend I want to point out: The last three home games Krstic has lit it up hitting 26 of 43 from the floor (60 percent). But in his last two road games, he’s hit just 6 of 22 (27 percent). That hasn’t really been a season-long trend for Krispy, but has kind of stood out lately. Just a little strange to be so hot at home, but equally as cold on the road.)
Westbrook played a very typical Russell Westbrook game. He had 22 (10-20), four assists and five rebounds. BUT, he did turn it over seven times. A lot of them were plays where he got himself in trouble and it seemed like he sort of panicked. He would just fall down, or scramble to try and get out of a crowd instead of gathering himself and dribbling out and setting up. That’s something he’s had issues with this season, but it never really ended up costing the Thunder tonight. Remember: He is a rookie playing a new position. But how about Russ knocking down another huge late game, late shot-clock distance jumper to lock one up for his team? Almost a carbon copy of what he did against Washington, Westbrook tried the pick-and-pop, it didn’t work and so he back out and hit an 18-footer right in Soloman’s face to put OKC up 97-92. Big time play from a gutsy player.
Jeff Green had a solid return scoring 22 and six boards but he seemed a little out of sync at times. But he really seemed to just step in and go with the flow. He didn’t try and take anything over and really let the points come to him. Though Uncle Jeff was a -7 in a win. That’s not so awesome.
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | ||
| OKC | 99.0 | 100.0 | 46.4% | 26.5 | 35.9 | 24.2 |
| SAC | 99.0 | 52.4% | 13.3 | 26.8 | 22.2 |
This may be a totally crazy statement and I may want to take it back soon, but at this current moment – at 12:15 a.m., March 11, 2009 – I’m not sure if Thabo Sefolosha isn’t Oklahoma City’s most important player. I know. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, blah, blah, blah. But what Thabo has done on both ends of the floor is undeniable. He’s changed the Thunder completely. There were countless possessions defensively that he basically blew up. He’d jump in passing lanes, he’d tip passes or he’d straight up steal it. I don’t know if Kevin Martin was hurt or something (maybe just his pride?) but he really didn’t play hardly any at all in the second half and had just 12 points on 4-11 shooting against Thabo. For the fifth straight game (that he was in uniform) he led the team in minutes. He was a +10, had 17 points (season high), seven rebounds, two assists and five steals. And just throughout the game was phenomenal defensively. I really think he may be the most important player for OKC’s success right now.
A few bullets:
- Why so little Kyle Weaver? He played just 24 minutes, but was solid. He had seven points on 3-4 shooting, three steals and two assists. He was in a bit of foul trouble, but not enough to sit him for so much of the second half. Brooks may have been feeling Watson because of his ability to help create shots late in games, but seeing as Weaver had big minutes late in the last five, I don’t really get why he sat.
- Speaking of, Weaver is turning into a really heady defender. He was mismatched with Andres Nocioni and Nocioni backed him straight down for an easy two. He tried it again, but Weaver pulled the chair out the next time and Nocioni threw it straight off the backboard. Now that I’m thinking, maybe that’s why Brooks sat Weaver. The Kings were going to try and exploit that matchup all night and Brooks wanted Thabo on him instead. Makes sense I guess.
- I am a Malik Rose fan all the way around. I know he’s basically just a rental, but I like the guy. He had 11 points and six boards in 20 minutes, but he has such a positive impact on the game when he’s on the floor. He makes smart plays and seems to always be involved in a good stretch for OKC. I wish we could have gotten him three years ago.
- I think it’s time for some alternate jerseys. It’s not that I’m really tired of the road blue, but I’m just read for something to mix it up. I think the hold up may be that they don’t know what color to pick. Yellow? Orange/Red? Dark blue? I don’t know what exactly I’d go with, but I just think we need an extra look for the road.
- Is it just me or is Brian Davis way less over-the-top and annoying when we’re winning? I hardly even notice all the lazy boy and trigger zingers anymore. Just another perk to winning.
- The Kings just flat out airmailed four passes straight out of bounds. Like nobody got a hand on it. It just sailed out of play. Either OKC was everywhere, or they’re really, really careless with the ball. I’m thinking the latter.
- So Earl hit a three Sunday night and had a dunk tonight. I don’t even have a joke here.
- And in case you forgot, that’s FIVE of SIX for Oklahoma City. But don’t get too happy, because we’ve got games against Denver, Phoenix, San Antonio, Chicago and Utah coming up. Two out of five would be very, very good there.
And you want to know how to win a close game? The details. While this game was a turnoverfest both ways (23 for OKC, 22 for the Kings), OKC hit 22 of 23 from the free throw line, while the Kings hit just 11 of 14. The Thunder outrebounded the Kings 44-36 for the game and 26-13 in the second half. These are the things OKC wasn’t doing back in November. You play this game then and we lose by 8-10 points. But now? We’re learning how to win. And it’s awesome.
Quick turnaround as OKC gets the Nuggets in Denver tomorrow night. If Carmelo Anthony hits a shot at the buzzer to beat the Thunder again, I’m going to sleep in the oven. If you’re going to beat us Denver, just do it by six or something. Don’t break out hearts again. Please.
Durant at PF may well expand with time but if they go that way significantly I think you have to spread the floor as much as possible to give him room to face up and drive. And spreading the floor means a big 3 pt game. The dribble drive of Westbrook and Green is more prominent than their 3 point game and Kyle and Thabo are more that way too. All that tends to clog the lane. Krstic may clear a lot but there are times he clogs too. Gotta have a lot of motion not just run down the court and try to jam thru the first opening or settle and jack a mid-ranger.
I don't know if you shift around a lot and do this but they'd have the option to try to put Durant on defense against the weakest 2, 3 or 4 especially subs during the game or at least the first 3 quarters. Maybe you start by trying to get Durant to be 2 way strong in the 4th and then expand backwards and play more straight-up without hiding him as time passes.
Within 9 with 3 minutes to do. If Weaver could have hit one or two timely threes, this would have been a game. Still, Weaver, Thabo, and Krstic again rock on the +/-. Westbrook and Green again pathetic on +/-.
I'd say this means this is a good unit of players. Seems that Weaver, Thabo, Durant, and Krstic need to be on the floor the most. Weaver and Thabo could cover up for Durant's lousy D, and Durant could hit the timely jump shots when needed.
82games shows that Durant's stats are best when he plays PF. But Weaver, Thabo, and Durant could be sort of interchangeable on D and rebounding, so long as the first two help the third.
Be nice to see those guys go on a run to end the season.
remeber people, durant is in his SECOND year! he's only TWENTY years old! is he good right now? damn yes he is, but he's still raw. it takes any great player a few years to find their niche, and he's still looking for his. add to that his team moving cross-country and a huge turnover on teammates, and i'm willing to forgive his lapses, defensive or otherwise.
I think if you ask every other GM in the league , the one player they want off this team its not going to be Thabo Sefolosha - Its going to be Kevin Durant. Thabo is strictly a role player. I watched Thabo play here in Chicago and he is doing same thing in OKC he did here, but he never advanced offensively the way they envisoned him, which kept him off the court and he started to complain about playing time. The Bulls were always able to get defensive stops, but ultimately they couldnt win because they could not put the ball in the basket, which led to scott skiles getting fired.
April, especially after last night, I don't think we can pick on KD for turnovers. The team, as a whole, has a very bad habit of throwing away possessions.
I also think you really need to take this time without him into some perspective. Thabo is a great defender, but Durant is far and away the best player this team has. If you want him to play off the bench, I know 29 other teams who would trade starters for him.
I do think there is something wrong with KD on this team. I think one of his troubles is his turnovers - usually at critical moments. I always wonder if a guy can score 30 points in a game -how come you don't even know that he is on the floor? Its all kind of strange. I think he did say he is going to try and fit in with this "new team". How would he do coming off the bench? It will be interesting when he gets back in.
And about Thabo - no doubt about it - he is our winning key. How on earth could a team leave him sitting on the bench?!
@joey
Well written Joey. Along the lines of your thinking, tonight is going to be a really interesting game. Playoff team in Denver. A desperately hungry playoff team for which this is a must-win game given all the ground they've lost recently. But last time out, they beat OKC only with a buzzer beater. And OKC is getting confident. But then again, this game is on the road, and a back-to-back road game for OKC. OKC is up against it here.
Now we're going to find out what this Durant-less team is made of. If they're still in the game in the 4th quarter -- i.e. within 10 points -- then with all the factors above, we'll have to say that this is very meaningful. Still unclear what it says or doesn't say about KD. But it would say that these "other" OKC guys are damn good, and much, much better than the team record.
Peter,
You also really need to look at who we've played since Durant went down on this 5-1 (our loss is to one of the only two teams we've played with a winning record) and then look at who we'll be playing when he comes back.
Wizards, Kings, Grizzlies, Sixers (lost 7 of 10, losing record) without Durant.
Spurs, Jazz, Suns with him.
If we go 0-3 when he comes back, it won't mean a thing because we SHOULD lose to those teams. We SHOULD have lost to the Mavs but the Thunder played out of their minds and the Mavs...well, played so poorly that Cuban temporarily lost his mind. And the Hornets crushed us in crunch time.
Can't compare apples (worst teams in the league) to the oranges (playoff competiton).
And finally, +/- is one of my pet peeves with stats. Yes, it's a good indicator over a season of how someone does taken in CONTEXT. But that's the dilemma: It's handcuffed as a stat. It doesn't and can't take into account too many factors to be the end-all Stat of Stats. It's a tool, just like a box score is.
That being said, if you're +/- is really negative, like KD's was under PJ...well, even a "taking other things into account" argument doesn't hold weight. :)
I believe that Brooks is trying his best to really cement player roles and audition the talent he has right now. If KD wasn't injured, a lot of these guys would be seeing considerably fewer minutes, and we might not know just how useful they could be next year (we're not making the playoffs, so whatever we do this year is a setup for next).
I don't think they are holding KD out longer than he needs, but they aren't going to rush him back where he could injure himself further. The Anti-Battier or Ewing Theory arguments are overblown, but I look forward to KD proving that when healthy and in the years to come.
@Keith
Thanks Keith. It was really interesting what you wrote. Guys like Krstic, Thabo, and Rose weren't around at the start of the year. But in this latest run, the stats, the quotes, and especially Royce's description in this post, show those guys to be tremendously motivated, and putting it out there, not just cashing a paycheck, counting the days until summer break.
So maybe KD-as-the-anti-Battier is only a minor part of the story of these past 6 games. Maybe there's something systemic in the makeup of the team, and the big changes in mid-season, that are just now taking effect. And maybe management knows this, and is keeping KD out longer than he needs to be out just to let guys like Krstic and Thabo "incubate" a bit. i.e. With KD out, these guys have the space and time to get their games and mojo up.
Then, when KD comes back, OKC now has a truly dangerous squad of 5-7 guys, with clear roles, who can bring it every night, with one of 'em being a transcendent superstar. THAT would be an interesting in-season story. It would really bum out the Seattle fans too. :)
Starting center - Johan Petro. Enough said??
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERdiem-081204
Here's the link, thankfully you don't have to be an insider to read it. It specifically names 4 veterans playing terribly and how Durant/Green/Westbrook can be expected to play better and better as the season goes. I thought it was written further in the season, but the points are all valid up until just before the halfway point of the season.
Well, Pete, I don't think it comes as a surprise to hear that KD is not a good defender right now. And if we're asking the question, "What exactly is wrong with KD?" then defense would be it. Of course, as Royce linked, he and the team in general have skewed stats from their horrible start.
Also, I'm still looking for it, but I believe Hollinger had a very interesting article about just how horribly the Thunder's vets (not it's young core) had been playing in the first half of the season. Something to the effect of every single veteran playing well below his career numbers. Sure, a good player should still be more positive when comparing on and off-court impact, but those statistics don't exist in a vacuum either. Just look at how bad all those players not named Durant and Green played in 2008 and you might have to mull over what kind of team was being fielded around Durant.
@Royce
Well, if you're right, then in these last 18 games of the year, when KD comes back, OKC is going to go on one of those tears that gets everybody's attention, with everybody predicting playoffs for next year.
Interesting that today's Daily Dime on ESPN for last night's games says absolutely nothing about the formerly worst team in the league having just won it's 5th out of the last 6. Interesting omission.
I suspect those writers are on to what we're talking about here. And they're waiting to see what happens when KD gets back before chiming in with theories.
p.s. Thanks for the link. I'll check it out.
@Peter
Here's a start: http://www.dailythunder.com/?p=1289
Like you said, you really haven't followed the team from October til now. The team is 100 percent different and KD as a player is 100 percent different. His plus/minus is WAY down from what it was in 2008. That stat is a bit skewed for him.
And I don't think anyone matches OKC's chemistry. There's multiple stories about the guys going to see movies with each other all the time, hanging out, cooking out, playing HORSE with each other. There's no cancer or chemistry issues, trust me.
I realize with KD as the golden goose for OKC, you won't be doing the following. But I'd like to see a blog post something like: "What Exactly is Wrong with KD?"
That is, why does the team play better without him, than with him? I don't just mean for these past 6 games. I mean his -6.1 +/- for the whole year.
Is it just his poor individual defense? His poor help defense? Doesn't make the easy pass? Doesn't understand floor spacing? Is a cancer in the locker-room? Other? Some combination of the above?
The "cancer" idea seems unlikely. But does he hang with the other guys? Is he "one of us"? Self-deprecating? Do his teammates really, really like him? Or are they ambivalent?
It's a baffling question for me. The stats scream: "There is something wrong this kid! Something anti-winning." But what could it be?
@Royce
Thanks Royce. I'll have to take your word for that since you watch the games and I don't. We should find out over the next 5-10 games whether KD is or isn't the princess in this fairy tale, or just the pea under all those mattresses who is causing all the losing.
This, of course, ought to interest you given the title of your post. i.e. What exactly are the dynamics underlying winning; and what are they for losing?
As you, an OKC fan, probably know by now, having a "scoring machine [who] shoots at an insanely high clip" may be fun to watch, but certainly doesn't buy you wins.
Funny you mention Jefferson. As I noted on an earlier post, since Jefferson went down for the season, Minny is 1-13. Since KD went down, OKC is 5-1. Both guys take around 19 shots a game. KD even shoots a better percentage.
Maybe you're right. It's irrelevant how many shots KD or Jefferson take. Maybe the only relevant stat is +/-. Jefferson is/was +5.4 for the year; KD is -6.1.
So if OKC -- a lousy team -- traded its star player to Minny -- an even worse team -- for Minny's star player, does that mean that OKC would improve about 6.1 + 5.4 = 11.5 PPG? Holy crap! OKC would be in the playoffs if that were true. Get out the trade machine!
I hadn't even thought of the smoke gray. Very nice idea. I think that would look solid with the dark blue and orange or yellow (or both) trim. They wear warmups that are that color.
I definitely think putting OKC is key. Just like Phoenix does with PHX. I like where your head's at.
Let's move on to the important point - alternate jerseys. I think they need to be a "storm cloud" gray (kind of like the gray on Phoenix's alternates) with the second panel being Thunder blue and the other colors for piping. Oh, and OKC instead of Oklahoma City. I've thought about using the orange for lettering, but white would probably stand out better.
Yeah Krstic could have done the same. Maybe KD swishes those shots and Krstic doesn't even have to rebound. Maybe Krstic rebounds KD's misses the same.
And KD isn't really a "black hole". He takes fewer shots than Kobe, Wade, LeBron, Dirk and Al Jefferson. He's a scoring machine and he shoots at an insanely high clip so naturally he'll take a good amount of shots. Durant never really forces anything. His points come (for the most part) with in the rhythm of the offense and the game.
This OKC team is turning out to be an allegory for America. Our nation has just come off 25 years of ersatz kings (bankers, movie stars, ceos) taking all of the money and attention, while the latter 99% of the nation stagnate. This dynamic has led us to ruin. We are entering a period of no kings, in which each of us has to pull his own weight.
Back to basketball. The biggest thing Bill Simmons wrote about OKC this year and previous was his man-crush on KD. In light of the past 6 games, this shows me that Simmons' otherwise brilliant analysis has been infected by the "king worship" disease.
Back to stats. This year, KD has averaged 19.0 shots a game. Game in, game out, all year. Last night, the shot distribution was:
20, 13, 11, 10, 8, 8, 7, 4, 2.
Interestingly, the 20 and 13 guys were the only starters with a negative +/- for the game.
I love people who say that +/- is a bull-crap stat because guys on lousy teams get hurt by it. These people don't even understand the stat.
It gets even worse when you compare teammates in the same game. Westbrook and Green got 39 and 36 minutes, respectively, last night. Thabo got 42. I didn't see the game. But I gotta assume there was a great deal of overlap in those minutes.
So how the hell is there a 17-point difference between Thabo and Green, and a 13-point swing between Thabo and Westbrook?
What these huge swings in +/- mean is that in the minutes that Thabo was sitting, but Green and/or Westbrook were on the court, those two were REALLY stinking it up. And they took the most shots.
Bottom line: I live in California, and couldn't give a crap about any team. OKC is interesting right now because of was I wrote about. It's an allegory for where America is today. Completely f&*ked. The only way out for our nation is to slay all the faux kings, pull together, and have each and every one of us bring it.
Question: With KD launching 19 shots a game, and sucking up all the air at the end of games, would Krstic, who was off all game, have pulled out the heroics down the stretch you write about, if the black-hole-known-as-KD had been on the floor?
@Joe
Totally agree. The most important aspect of all this is that it allows OKC to enter the draft saying "we want the best player available" rather than reaching in a weak draft to get a specific position. In the 2nd round it definitely enables us to go for a "project" pick if we want, since there won't be the pressure of needing to contribute immediately.
Maybe Thabo wants to tell Nocioni that OKC is the promised land and start recruiting him to call his agent!
I am 100% convinced that Sefolosha IS the difference, but the true test will come when we see how he gels with KD. I am crossing my fingers, toes and everything in between that the two of them can get along like biscuits and gravy and keep bringing home the bacon! (breakfast anyone?)
I forgot to mention these two things in the recap:
1) Anyone else see Chucky Atkins talking huge smack to Andres Nocioni after he airballed? It was great. Nocioni's head was down and he was sulking and Chucky is standing there just laying it on him.
2) Also, Nocioni and Thabo had the little post game hug but then Thabo motioned "call me" to him. A little weird...
Joe :
I’m with you on Thabo Royce. I was thinking last night, that it’s no coincidence the way we’ve been winning. It’s pure hustle and grit. Compare the last few games with the defense we’ve played the rest of the season without Thabo and it’s like night and day.
When Durant gets back, Thabo absolutely has to be the two along with KD and Green. Weaver can come off the bench.
Thabo becomes probably our fourth best player/most important player on the roster behind the big three right now. And it changes the imperatives for the draft. We don’t necessarily have to go out and pick a SG now.
Completely agree. If Thabo can develop a low post game over the summer he can become our "Lamar Odom". He'll be our glue guy.
I'm with you on Thabo Royce. I was thinking last night, that it's no coincidence the way we've been winning. It's pure hustle and grit. Compare the last few games with the defense we've played the rest of the season without Thabo and it's like night and day.
When Durant gets back, Thabo absolutely has to be the two along with KD and Green. Weaver can come off the bench.
Thabo becomes probably our fourth best player/most important player on the roster behind the big three right now. And it changes the imperatives for the draft. We don't necessarily have to go out and pick a SG now.