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Nenad Krstic: home versus away

by Royce Young on March 13, 2009 at 2:46 pm 8 Comments

OK, I’m absolutely obsessed with NBA.com’s hotspots. Like a 14-year-old that just discovered Google images, I get started with it and I’ll spend an entire afternoon comparing and contrasting with them.

I wrote after the Sacramento game the recent phenomenon (maybe that’s not the right word), with Nenad Krstic and his home and away jumper. It seems lately, at home he’s been automatic with it, but on the road he’s struggling a bit. Overall, he’s 28-43 (65 percent) from the floor in the last three home games and 9-34 (26 percent) on the road. Pretty solid difference there. Maybe he’s was fatigued with the four games in five days. Maybe they were simply just off nights, which happen to shooters all the time.

But while for the season his overall field goal percentage numbers aren’t that different home vs. away (50 percent at home, 44 percent on the road), there is a pretty large difference on Krispy’s signature shot, the distance jumper.

HOME

picture-12

AWAY

picture-2

From the spot we typically see Krstic hit his pick-and-pop shot from (the top three quadrants), he’s shooting 23 percent higher at home versus away (53 percent home, 30 percent away). He averages four fewer points on the road than at home (12.0 at home, 8.1 away). It’s one of those things that’s hard to explain, but just is. Most people shoot better at home than away because it’s familiar territory. But it’s not typically that drastic.

Like I said, the overall numbers don’t blow you out of your chair, but a 23 percent difference on the shot that’s kind of his thing is pretty staggering. Everywhere else, the numbers are pretty much consistent. It’s just that 18-20 foot jumper from straightaway that’s different. I wish I knew why, because I’d probably be Facebooking (or calling I suppose) Scott Brooks to let him know, but I don’t. It could be total coincidence. It could be a comfort thing. Or it could be (what I think) a confidence issue. Whatever it is, it’s interesting.

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Royce
Royce 5pts

@Joe
Hey, I wouldn't dismiss that. Maybe there's no hotel beds that accommodate a seven-footer so he has to sleep on a rollout and his back hurts the next day. Who knows...

Joe
Joe 5pts

Maybe he is just so comfortable on one of those Tempurpedic adjustable type beds at home, and can't get good sleep on a bouncy hotel bed on the road? :O)

Crow
Crow 5pts

You could construct it. I forgot about the hotspots tool earlier but I do now remember that if you click a specific spot on a hot spot chart you get the detail on every game where a player took shots from there. So you can construct whatever hybrid stat you want (road-right corner) if you choose to invest the time to compile it.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Well, but if you look back, the sampling size is relatively small for zero days rest (just five games, all being on the road... which is interesting). And we don't have his hotspots with relation to that.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

Wow, that trend line really blew my theory. I just KNEW Nenad shot worse and worse the more games he played in the week. Guess not.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Now that would be very cool.

You CAN look at their overall splits on days rest. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/splits?playerId=1719

Krstic is hitting 60 percent on zero days rest. 45 percent on a days rest. 40 percent on two days rest and 56 percent on three days rest. But I don't know where all those shots are coming from.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

It's too bad there isn't an option to choose an 'on X days rest' split.

Trackbacks

  1. Jeff Green, home vs. away | Daily Thunder.com says:
    February 1, 2010 at 3:42 pm

    [...] that important right now? Probably not. But I find little trends like this interesting. Last year, Nenad Krstic was hitting a ton more jumpers at home than away. The reason for it? I have no clue. Maybe it’s a comfort thing. Maybe it’s a confidence [...]

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