vs. 
Thunder (17-46, 4-26 road) at Sacramento Kings (14-49, 10-21 home)
TV: FS Oklahoma (Cox 37)
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM)
Time: 9:00 CST
Offensive Rating: Thunder: 103.7 (28th), Sacramento: 104.5 (26th)
Defensive Rating: Thunder: 109.4 (20th), Sacramento: 113.9 (30th)
Pace: Thunder: 93.6 (8th), Sacramento: 94.1 (6th)
(Jeff Green could play tonight, according to ESPN/The Oklahoman. I guess we’ll find out around 9:00 p.m.)
Another wonderful matchup in the Blake Griffin Playoffs. So far, OKC has split with Sacramento this season and though the Kings are sitting at just 14 wins (now that we have 17, we can talk down at those crappy teams below us), they did pick up a nice win against Denver two nights ago.
But this is a little different Sactown team than OKC saw the first two times. Gone is John Salmons who averaged 21 points, 9.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds against the Thunder. Add Andres Nocioni, who scored 23 in the Kings big upset over the Nuggs. Plus Beno Udrih (29 points in last meeting) is hurt and Bobby Jackson will be starting in his steed.
The Kings have scored 233 points in their last two games combined, but as we know, the Thunder’s playing some serious defense right now holding their last five opponents to under 90 points a game, including holding Philly to season-low 74. So it looks like we’ll have a nice little offense/defense showdown tonight and I think it could be summed up perfectly by the Thabo/Kyle Weaver vs. Kevin Martin matchup.
I absolutely love watching Thabo play defense. He’s everywhere – he helps on drives, he recovers and rotates, he blocks shots, he gets his hands on passes and he rebounds. He’s always in an athletic position with his hands up and you can tell he wants to be an elite defender. And tonight, he gets a pretty elite scorer in Martin. Martin scored 37 in the first meeting in Sacramento, but was held to just 23 on 7-16 shooting in OKC’s 116-113 win. Kyle Weaver had the assignment that night and did solid work on Sacto’s two-guard and will get the call some too (whoever doesn’t get Martin will take Francisco Garcia who had 19 against Denver). Martin is a solid 6’7″ and though he has a funny release, he can get his shot off almost any time he wants. But I think Thabo (and Weaver) present a perfect match for him. Blanks is strong, long and can defend the drive. Weaver handled him relatively well last time. Should be some good matchups to watch.
Jeff Green could be back tonight, so we’re going to just assume he is. If he’s not, it’s pretty simple: Nick Collison will start and we’ll see the same thing we’ve seen the last four. But if Green is back, I’m really excited to watch him fit back into the offense. The offense has been very team oriented lately with six guys scoring in double figures against Philly and with even distribution across the board. I think with all the cutting and ball movement, Uncle Jeff could get a lot more open looks and more space to work with. But the thing is, the team needs to continue with its team offense and not just stand back and let Uncle Jeff go to work. He needs to just fit in with the offense, but just add more talent and scoring ability to it.
Up and down the lineup though, OKC matches Sacramento extremely well, Kevin Durant not. I like Russell Westbrook to bounce back after a tough game against Philly and Bobby Jackson is a scoring point man, but Westbrook is bigger, stronger and faster than him. Jason Thompson is a bruiser in the post, but Jeff Green doesn’t give and inch and can take Thompson off the dribble and on the perimeter. The Spencer Hawes/Nenad Krstic match is probably a push, depending on if Krispy is hitting his sweet 18-footer. The King bench is really thin and though OKC’s isn’t exactly deep, big contributions from Malik Rose and recently Earl Watson make you feel a bit better with it. And with Green supposedly playing, the Thunder bench gets deeper now having Collison coming off the pine. (Or maybe Green plays the three and Weaver comes off the bench? Whatever the case, OKC’s bench gets deeper and better.)
The Kings are efficiency-wise, the worst defensive team in the league and don’t exactly score the ball all that well either. We shouldn’t really expect a win because even with the team playing pretty good right now, they’re still 4-26 on the road. But obviously, a loss would be disappointing with the way the team is playing, road game or not. These types of games are so weird to predict because you’d assume the Thunder would win, but for some reason it seems like an extremely losable game as well. I don’t know why, but it just does.
Tip at 9:00 CST. Go Thunder.
@Keith
I really don't know why Williams hasn't succeeded in the NBA because coming out of college, he was a very potent true point guard. For people who haven't really seen him play, I always thought he'd make an excellent player, much like a Deron Williams-esque point guard without D-Will's jumper. Good vision, excellent finisher at the rim and WAS lightning quick, going from backcourt to lane in no time. But if he's out-of-shape and lacking fire, well, that will derail anyone's chances in such a competitive atmosphere like the NBA.
And I seriously contend your statement that his shot is worse than Watson's, :). Tomayto, tomahto.
And Joe, I'd be fine with having a Chucky Atkins type of backup for the next 5-7 years. Honestly. I don't know why we don't get Chucky more minutes and continue to overload Wilkin's minutes.
I suppose I'm just hoping that Presti can swing another miracle for a player that has been in the league 2 years, never really had a true solid run of playing time but clearly has the talent to compete in the NBA (sound familiar at all?). And Williams draft class was deep, so him being the 22nd doesn't really mean much to me in terms of evaluation...the fact he keeps getting cut does, though. :)
And sorry about the youtubing of Livingston, I'm honestly amazed he's come back from that but that's the kind of fire that makes players great.
Last I heard Gelly was rehabbing and was in Houston at some point. But I guess it is really about next season for him now NBA or europe. I thought I heard Presti waived him. Otherwise there would have been a cap hold. Not 100% sure though.
There are some weird stats at half: Wilkins with more minutes than Weaver. We are getting outrebounded. Thabo is the leader with +9. Wilkins is -7.
I really don't like these late West coast games.
I really don't know why the didn't give him another look. I think it was just a numbers thing. Wilkins had a guaranteed contract, so you can't just send him to the curb really without paying. The roster really turned over from last year. Last year there was Ridnour, Szczerbiak,Delonte West, Watson, Wilkins, Durant, Green etc....
I dunno. On the blogs there was always this "free Gelly" chant. He was sort of in and out of the rotation.
@Joe
Why did they let him go? He might have been a decent backup/third string small forward. I'd rather have him than Damien "Shoot the ball as soon as you touch it" Wilkins.
Defensive lapses, eh? Kind of the exact opposite of what I was hoping.
@Keith
Started hot hitting 4-4 off the tip to rush out to a 10-0 lead, but there's just been some defensive lapses and we've allowed four offensive rebounds. Westbrook's jumper looks nice early.
Thanks, Royce, but it doesn't seem to be working. I'll just have to look forward to some detailed analysis afterwards.
Though while I'm at it, how are the guys looking tonight? I'm following the ESPN gamecast/box score, but we all know that doesn't really tell the story.
@Keith
You can try this: http://www.justin.tv/boldcricket
I know justin.tv sometimes streams games, but I've never watched one on it personally and don't really know how to get it to work.
I don't know if this is the place, but I can't watch the game on tv where I am. Does anyone know of a sight that streams the game?
I believe I read that Colly is out tonight?
Vega :
Livingston has proven that, when healthy, he can be productive. I’d rather try out a former top five pick who is coming back from a horrific injury than an unproven twenty-second overall pick who just got released by a team that has no real point guards.
On another note, does anyone know anything about Mickael Gelabele? He was on Seattle for two years, before tearing an ACL during practice last year. I believe the Thunder still have his rights. If he’s healthy, why not call him up and see if he wants to play?
Ahh. Gelly. Gelabale was a fan favorite in Seattle. His game is a lot like Weaver's. He's rail thin and about 6-6"-7" and plays defense; he's a pass first player who you almost have to beg to shoot sometimes, and he can handle the rock. He is a good rebounder. For whatever reason, the team allowed him to sail off back to Paris never to be heard from again. He was an unrestricted free agent because he was a second rounder. I don't think he is better or worse than Weaver, just about the same.
Shaun Livingston's leg thing was the most gruesome thing I've seen since Lawrence Taylor broke Joe Theismann's leg back in the 80's. That was extra gruesome. We saw Livingston against Miami early in the season and I thought he looked good.
Something's up with Marcus Williams. For one thing I've heard he has conditioning problems (otherwise known as FAT), and this is the second team that has offloaded him. He never has gotten any real burn in the NBA, so I've just never really seen him play much. He's probably not much better than Chucky really.
Green has played quite a bit of three this year, so it's not that big of a stretch to get him a start there tonight. The lineup of Krstic, Collison, Green, Sefolosha and Westbrook has played small minutes together and they are +6.
Yes. I did.
I was NOT expecting THAT.
Yeesh.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Oooh. I take it you came across the injury video, huh...
I didn't know who Shaun Livingston was. But, since you guys brought him up, I youtube'd him.
I just want you guys to know, I really hate you all right now.
Joey, I don't see what Williams brings to the table for this team. With such little playing time, you can't call him a veteran. His shot is worse than Watson's. The Thunder need to start adding depth, players who can come in and compete in the minutes they play. That's just never been Williams.
The game tonight is going to be interesting. Green needs to be re-introduced to the way the Thunder want to play, but the Kings look absolutely terrible on paper. I don't think they should start Green at the 3, however. The frontcourt is the thinnest area for the Thunder, and I also am not a proponent of moving players around too much during the game. Collison spelling Green and Krstic at the 4 and 5 is one thing, but moving Green, Thabo, Weaver, and Westbrook around seems too much. That's two rookies and a second year guy. I don't want these guys to look like the 2008 Thunder all over again, with barely anyone knowing where they are supposed to be for 48 minutes.
Livingston has proven that, when healthy, he can be productive. I'd rather try out a former top five pick who is coming back from a horrific injury than an unproven twenty-second overall pick who just got released by a team that has no real point guards.
On another note, does anyone know anything about Mickael Gelabele? He was on Seattle for two years, before tearing an ACL during practice last year. I believe the Thunder still have his rights. If he's healthy, why not call him up and see if he wants to play?
Marcus Williams is a young player that definitely has talent. And I think you're right - Livingston *could* be a solid starting point, while Williams will likely only give you minutes off the bench.
But at some point, back up point guard will be an issue because we're not going to keep Earl forever. I think Weaver can play the point (like Roger Mason Jr. does for the Spurs) but he's not the answer there. We need a George Hill and maybe that's Marcus Williams. We definitely have to find someone for that spot so keeping our eyes open is a good thing.
Interesting outlook. I'm usually more weary of injured players than overlooked prospects who didn't "fit in" with their team or coaching staff. But I understand where you're coming from.
To me though, if Livingston gets anywhere near to 100% again, I can see him fancying the starting pg role, whereas Williams is pretty much going to be a backup pg in the league...but competition breeds success, just like at Thabo and Weaver for crying out loud, so you might be right.
Interesting. He was a really solid drive and kick point guard at UCONN but he's been relatively unproductive in the pros. He didn't get a ton of opportunity with GSW, but he could be a decent point guard.
I don't know about him though. I think I'd rather give Livingston a try over Williams.
Royce, Golden State just cut backup point guard Marcus Williams.
...you think Presti and Co. will give him a look?
I think I would.
Ooh, interesting article here from Baksetball Prospectus:
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=576
The Kings rank as maybe the most inconsistent team in the league - big win one night, huge loss the next. That's good news for us.
Yep, I noticed that too Joe. They run but they don't score a lot. We HAVE to avoid getting in a quickly paced game with them and start hoisting dumb shots.
I think I'd go with the same lineup, because I prefer Thabo on Martin over Weaver. And I think Green would give Garcia a heck of a time in the post. Collison can play Jason Thompson as well as Green so I don't think you're losing anything there.
If I'm coach for a day, I start Krtic, Colly and Green in the frontcourt and Thabo and Westbrook at the guard spots. Colly goes to the bench after about 8 minutes and Weaver comes in (which moves Thabo and Green up a spot). Then after a couple of more minutes, Watson comes in for Westbrook. After a few more minutes, Westbrook comes back in and Weaver moves to the three, Westbrook at two, Watson at one. About this time Rose comes in and Colly comes back in giving Krstic and Green some blow. That's how I would roll tonight. 8 guys only. If there is foul trouble, maybe Atkins or Damien for a few, or perhaps Swift, but not much.
Sacto must be running more now with the trades, their pace is at 96 in the last five games, but their offensive efficiency is only 105. So they run, but they don't score efficiently.
Conversely, after being one of the faster teams in the league most of the year, we are now running (or actually walking) at a pace of 88.5; 7th slowest in the NBA in our last five games.