vs. 
Oklahoma City Thunder (18-47, 5-27 road) at Phoenix Suns (34-31, 19-13 home)
TV: KSBI (Cox 15)
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM)
Time: 9:00 CST
Offensive Rating: Thunder: 103.7 (28th), Phoenix: 112.2 (4th)
Defensive Rating: Thunder: 109.5 (20th), Phoenix: 110.9 (24th)
Pace: Thunder: 93.7 (8th), Phoenix: 95.5 (4th)
A return to the desert to take on the Suns. You know, the team that scored 140 on OKC the last time they played. You know, scored 79 points on the Thunder in the first half. Yeah, that team.
But, luckily for OKC, the Suns aren’t in their “score 140 points on everybody” mode anymore. They’ve lost six in a row and allowed 118 points a game in that stretch. One thing to note about their losing streak – it was against the likes of Orlando, Miami, Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Cleveland. Not exactly pushovers. In fact, since Alvin Gentry took over, the Suns haven’t really lost to anyone they shouldn’t have. They haven’t beat anybody they shouldn’t have, but still. Against sub-par opponents, they seem to really take care of business. But this doesn’t feel like the Nuggets game where a good team is desperate to get back on track. It feels more like a team is teetering on totally falling apart. So this is a big game for the Suns.
Kevin Durant is supposed to return, but I’m not sure how many minutes he’ll play. He’s said that more than anything, he’s concerned about his conditioning more than his ankle. And with the frenetic pace Phoenix plays at, KD may only see 25-30 minutes – which would probably be smart.
The thing I hope the Thunder learned during this 5-2 stretch is that they play better under control. It’s fine to get out and run and make plays in transition – when they’re there. But to run just because the other team is running is what gets you beat by 25 (and you give up 140 points or so too). The Thunder has got to execute in the half court. OKC has been said to be taking the Spurs model for building a franchise. Well, they ought to take the Spurs model for beating the Suns too. San Antonio slows the pace, grinds out possessions, hits the offensive glass and keeps the game at their comfort zone. OKC’s got the tools to do the same, especially with KD back.
Hopefully, Nick Collison is back too tonight because otherwise, the Thunder might get chewed apart inside. Nenad Krstic just can’t handle Shaq for 40 minutes or more. He’ll foul out. Krstic has the type of game than can exploit Shaq on the other end, but defensively, he needs help.
The Suns want to start fast and bury you early. They shot almost 60 percent last time with Leandro Barbosa going for 41 on 16-21 shooting. They try and get easy buckets and make you feel like you need to shoot quickly in order to stay close. Some teams can pull it off, but the good ones play it smart and get good looks whether it’s five seconds in to the shot clock or 20 seconds in. One thing that pace does is give bad shooters open looks and goats them into taking them. The Thunder’s got to be smarter than that.
It should be a fun game and it will definitely be nice to see KD back. Tip at 9:00 CST. Go Thunnnn-durr.
90 and 94 aren't far apart but are pretty different in this league 6th fast vs 8th slowest. Not sure where they should fall and you don't want to over-emphasize it but 92 is about average and might be the right level.
I didn't know the w-l at 97+ pace was so clear cut bad Joe. I'd urged slower but with your stat it should be case closed that real fast is a mistake. Below 94 is the way to go unless they get a true PG and a big-time 3 pt game.
If your data allows a check I wonder if Westbrook's turnovers or Durant's or team as whole are down when pace is below 94?
Atkins is worse than Watson - at least Watson can get in the lane - all Atkins does is shoot bricks . . .
Less than three minutes left in the first half and there has yet to be an Earl Watson sighting. Hooray!
@Alex
Interesting. My initial reaction is to focus on defensive stats, turnover rates, rebounding and opp. field goal percentage. So much of the NCAA tournament is how you react to the things you can't control. Sometimes you shoot poorly. But you can always rebound and play defense and take care of the ball.
Hey, since you guys know more about stats than me...I found this thing on ESPN to predict match-ups for the NCAA tournament and it lets you select 5 categories of stats to compare...Which do you think are the most important to know about a team?
Here's the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/tournament/predictor?conf=1&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2ftournament%2fpredictor%3fconf%3d1
Thanks!
good idea - but I can almost guarantee you that Westbrook will kill that theory . . .
"they ought to take the Spurs model for beating the Suns too. San Antonio slows the pace, grinds out possessions, hits the offensive glass and keeps the game at their comfort zone."
Amen to that. We've only won one game so far this season with a pace of 97 or higher. In fact we are 1-14 in games with a pace of 97 or higher, and that was a one point win over Sacto last week. 15 of our 18 wins this season have been at a pace of 94 possessions or slower. Phoenix is running at about 96 in it's last five games; we've been at about 90. So, the way this team is currently constructed, and with the coaching philosophy currently employed, it just makes sense to be deliberate with our offense; set up our half court game with all the drive and pitch, back cuts and movement. We should probably only be running on steals, turns by them, and defensive rebounds.
will be a tough game for the Thunder - the Suns are likely very upset after letting several winnable games fall by the wayside - Westbrook will have to control his urges to go 1 on 4 and keep up with the breakneck pace - hopefully this will be a game where Richardson doesn't show up and Shaq is disinterested . . .