As we all know so well, right now OKC sits with an 11.9 percent chance of picking first in the 2009 draft and has about a 25 percent chance of picking either first or second. And with this appearing to be a no-doubt two man draft, that could be a little scary if you don’t land in one of the top spots. Past No. 1 and 2, it looks like you’ll be taking a bit of chance on someone. Hasheem Thabeet? James Harden? Brandon Jennings? The reality is that there’s going to be good players in this supposed “weak draft.” Maybe they’re taken at No. 25 or maybe in the top five. The key is properly scouting your needs and taking the player that fits. Just because you don’t land No. 1 or 2 doesn’t mean it’s over. There’s always good players to be taken. So what does history tell us? Let’s look back at the last 10 drafts:
1998
1. Michael Olowokandi
2. Mike Bibby
3. Raef LaFrentz
4. Antwan Jamison
5. Vince Carter
A perfect example of what can be found further down the line. Not only were the two best players in the top five taken at No. 4 and 5, but maybe the two best players were taken at No. 9 and 10 – Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce. And Rashard Lewis was taken at No. 32. Anybody see think “Hasheem Thabeet” when they see Michael Olowokandi?
1999
1. Elton Brand
2. Steve Francis
3. Baron Davis
4. Lamar Odom
5. Jonathan Bender
Amazing how upside-down this draft was. While Brand was productive when healthy and Francis had some nice years, really Odom and Davis were the class of the top five, seeing as there hasn’t been a Jonathan Bender sighting in years. But see here: Richard Hamilton was taken at No. 7, Jason Terry at 10, Ron Artest at 16, Andrei Kirilenko at 24 and maybe the best player in the whole thing, Manu Ginobili at 59.
2000
1. Kenyon Martin
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller
Here’s how bad the 2000 Draft was: Desmond Mason (taken at 17) is probably one of the five best players out of this draft. And I mean that with no disrespect to Dez. The best player was taken at No. 43 (Michael Redd) and Hedo Turkoglu was picked at 16. The funny thing about that draft was how much of a sure thing guys like Marcus Fizer, Kenyon Martin and Darius Miles supposedly were. Goes to show that in the end, we all really know nothing.
2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Pau Gasol
4. Eddy Curry
5. Jason Richardson
If only you could go back and do it over. Joe Johnson went at No. 10. Troy Murphy at 14. Tony Parker at 28 (woo Sam Presti!). Gilbert Arenas was in the second round at No. 31. All-Star Mehmet Okur went at 38. And Eddy Curry was picked fourth. Another perfect example (in a list of many great ones) that the guy isn’t as good (or bad) as the spot he was taken in.
2002
1. Yao Ming
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy Jr.
4. Drew Gooden
5. Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Finally, a legit No. 1 overall pick. Yao has definitely solidified himself as a quality, well-deserved top pick. But the guys that followed him, not so much. Especially when Amare Stoudemire went ninth, Caron Butler at 10, Carlos Boozer 34th, Rasual Butler at 52 and Luis Scola at 55. Anybody know what Nikoloz Tskitishvili is doing these days? Seriously, anyone?
2003
1. LeBron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh
5. Dwyane Wade
All hail the 2003 Draft. So good. So, so good. Four the top five picks are absolute superstars and there’s good ones down the line. David West picked 18th, Josh Howard 29th, Matt Bonner at 45 and Mo Williams at 47. But again, Darko kind of taints it because he was actually picked above Melo, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Crazy huh? Is there any chance in six years we could be saying, “Can you BELIEVE Ricky Rubio was picked above DeMar DeRozen?” Is there any chance that happens?
2004
1. Dwight Howard
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Devin Harris
Had Shaun Livingston not exploded his leg, this draft really was pretty quality in the top five. Emeka Okafor was the no-doubt top pick all year until this burly high-schooler came along and took the top spot. Ben Gordon at three struck me as high, but it’s not like he’s a flop. Al Jefferson went at 15, Jameer Nelson at 20, Kevin Martin 26th and Anderson Varejao 30th.
2005
1. Andrew Bogut
2. Marvin Williams
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Raymond Felton
Anybody want a do-over? Add in the fact Andrew Bynum went 10th, Danny Granger 17th, David Lee at 30 and Monta Ellis at 40, its got to sting that you took Andrew Bogut No. 1.
2006
1. Andrea Bargnani
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Adam Morrison
4. Tyrus Thomas
5. Sheldon Williams
Ahem – Brandon Roy went sixth. Rajon Rondo all the way down at 21. Daniel Gibson 42nd. Paul Millsap 47th. Leon Powe 49th. But Sheldon Williams went fifth! Adam Morrison third! The NBA Draft – Where Stupid Happens.
2007
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Mike Conley
5. Jeff Green
Anybody starting to get the feeling after looking at these last 10 that this draft has the look of having some flops? Obviously Greg Oden needs some time but is he better than Andrew Bogut? Or Andrea Bargnani? Sure he could be a darn fine player and the Blazers could be perfectly satisfied, but when you start looking down the list at what you gave up, it kind of starts to sting. Most obviously, the guy taken directly behind Oden. Just for clerical purposes: Rodney Stuckey went 15th, Wilson Chandler 23rd, Aaron Brooks 26th, Glen Davis 35th and Marc Gasol 48th. So honestly Portland – Marc Gasol or Greg Oden?
2008
1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. O.J. Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
Obviously these guys need a little more than just a rookie year to be judged, but there’s already some guys down the list that probably should have been taken ahead of say, Danilo Gallinari. Like Anthony Randolph (14th), Courtney Lee (22nd), Nicolas Batum (25th) or Mario Chalmers (34th).
This look-back isn’t to say that Blake Griffin or Rubio is going to fall on their face. This could be a 2004 type draft where No. 1 and 2 are both incredibly productive. But it’s also not to say that anything is a sure thing. It’s kind of shocking to look back at some of these drafts and see how low some All-Stars went and how high some bench warmers did. OKC has a pick in the late first round, and it should be cherished. Maybe the next David West or Gilbert Arenas or Michael Redd is down there. You can never be sure. I’ve got players that will be in that territory I definitely like (post coming soon), but it’s really hit and miss. Really more than anything, this was just a fun look back at where some of these guys went. But it’s also to say, just because you’re picking sixth doesn’t mean it’s all over. Maybe another Brandon Roy is just waiting to be picked (James Harden?). But then again, maybe not.
Of course, let’s just get No. 1 and forget about everything else. Let Toronto weight stuff like “Mullens or Curry? Who to take… who to take…”
@Keith
If the thunder get the number 1 pick i agree they should take griffin; but with that being said I am curious to see what his actual height is when nba teams measure him. I have seen him around Norman some this year and I think Blake is closer to 6'8 than 6'10. Though what I think will really matter are Blake's wingspan/standing reach measurements because these measurements help to gauge nba success more accurately than height does.
@Keith
it's not an exact science, but it looks weak to me. Durant was a high school phenom, and he tore up the NCAA in his one year of playing. Griffin was dominant in each of his last two years - who else can stake that claim?? When I watch college games, I merely just watch and see who "stands out" (unless you are talking about a team with multiple prospects) . . .
Does anyone remember what the word was leading up to the 2000 draft? Was it considered weak at the time, or did people really think K-Mart was a franchise player? A striking resemblance can be seen with an athletic PF at the top, a PG with lots of potential second, and a bunch of guys with questionable work ethic, basketball iq, and/or no set position in the NBA. It just makes me wonder how accurate these pre-draft thoughts are. Last year was considered less spectacular at the top, but with a lot of solid players. It seems to have turned out better than that, with several guys who might be all-stars in the future. But still, is anyone this year going to be Durant good? You could argue that the pre-draft label is still rather accurate.
So how weak is this class really? Are we screwed after the first two picks, or will there be another half-dozen players with all star potential (based on their NBA production not on their physical potential).
@okcnba
I echo that sentiment - don't draft Thabeet just because "we need a 7-footer" - sadly MANY GMs have made this mistake over time . . .
I liked this one...it was funny to look back and see all the guys that were so highly rated and had so much upside and they haven't done anything.
Bottom line: you draft the best player available (if you keep your pick at all depending on where you select). If you draft on need alone you end up with Swift, Petro, and Sene.
Does no one see that the Thunder was one of the WORST offensive teams in the NBA last season? Our offense was worse than our defense. It doesn't matter who is in the middle: guys like Jefferson and Howard are going to get theirs.
@p
A little interesting that all the guys you named are probably the same size as Blake Griffin. Not a single one is over 6'10". And, just to be fair, most legit 7 footers are either defensive specialists (not hurting us much in the paint) or foreign jump shooters (which limits the effectiveness of their height). Call me crazy, but a legit 6'10" Blake would fit in fine.
Another tidbit is to check out the statistics for the season (Royce conveniently posted them recently). Our offense is actually worse than our defense. Now I'm not going to say a defensive stopper in the middle wouldn't help, but it could improve us more to have a low post player who can score efficiently. I also am scared to death of drafting Thabeet. 7'3" with little skill is enough in college, it's not enough in the pros. Thabeet consistently got beat by good college players who were all well shorter than him. Everyone will be good in the NBA, and Thabeet just doesn't have the game or bball IQ to make it (think a black Robert Swift).
i agree with spike & daniel ... the prospect of thabeet in the middle gives me some trepidation/reservations ... but he is the true need ... blake is not gonna stop dwight howard, al jefferson, zach randolph (the list goes on) & all the other centers who basically had career games against the thunder this season ...
hasheem may not either, but he is someone who potentially can ...
with blake we get some toughness & athleticism inside - but we remain undersized in the paint ... most of his comparisons are to amare stoudamire ... a darn good player, but a sieve defensively!
i think the makeup of the thunder calls for a defensive presence ... i cant foresee them lacking scoring punch.
i'm not sold on harden, but i starting to think he'd mesh well.
Yeah Spike, we need one more 7-footer. Right now, the only person on the team who is a bonafide center is Krstic. I am not counting Swift.
Collison, DJ White and Malik (soon to be gone) are not centers, and we are having to play them there when Krstic needs a breather. Our defense suffers when we have an undersized PF playing center. I don't need more points, just a big body to plug in there to give Nenad a rest and not have our defense fall apart in that time.
I've seen every Thunder game this season so I know this is an issue. And also, haha, playing NBA 2K9, it's an issue for me when I'm forced to play Swift a lot of minutes. =) I can't win at that game playing Nick at the 5. He's just not big enough.
How can anybody say Westbrook wasn't our pick??? He came a long way this year and will continue to improve. I personally dont think Blake would benefit us as much as Hasheem, if he were 5 inches taller, we could use him. Dont get me wrong, I like him, just doesn't suit our needs as much as a 7 footer.
@Daniel
Very good point. I think with an offseason to adjust and get more comfortable on his knee, Krstic could easily be a 15 and 7 kind of guy, which is about what I picture Lopez as. But heck, if Lopez could get a little jumper like Krstic has, he could be an 18-20 point guy. If only we could combine the two.
I thought we should have picked Lopez on draft day. But i think we're better off now anyway because we were able to get Nenad Krstic. Lopez and Krstic are very similar players. And now we have Westbrook + Krstic. I'll definitely take that!
@Joe
I think what people are banking on with Rubio is that he makes up the deficit. He's had a pro contract since he was 16, has done ads for McDonald's, Adidas and others and so I think people are assuming he's got the cash. And instead of waiting, he's dying to get over here and play with the best.
@J.G.
Your first comment - I thought about that shortly after the season started, once Chalmers got out to a good start, and wish we would have done that. BUT, what if we did get Lopez and then picked up Chalmers and missed out on Serge Ibaka or didn't pull the trade off to where we got the right to White and Weaver. Point is - if you change one thing everything else is up for grabs as well. What if White turns out to be really special and Weaver turns out to be a perfect piece to the puzzle.
@Bernard
With Dirk turning into a dominant big man, foreign players suddenly had BIG stock. Darko looked like a foreign player with HUGE upside, and it didn't work out.
I still do not understand how Darko went second...
I'm just really surprised that Rubio is even being mentioned at the #2 spot. Admittedly I've only seen him play one game, and it was last year and he didn't really seem like he was all that...just my opinion, but does anybody remember Fran Vasquez? The lottery pick that was supposed to be playing alongside Dwight Howard right now?
With these international picks that are under contract to foreign teams, the NBA team is only allowed to pay like 500k towards their buyout. From what is on Draftexpress, Rubio has two years and 6 million on his Spanish contract. Who is going to pay that? His salary in the NBA will be about 4 million per year. But if he's got to buy out his contract, he will be playing for less money than he is making now. I just don't see him coming cheap or easy as the second pick. I may be wrong, I mean, Darko came right over, but to me it is a red flag.
Anyway, I would fall out of my chair if Presti takes him. I would staple my forehead if Thabeet is in Thunder blue next year.
The biggest factor in our favor (as opposed to other teams at the top) is that we have our core set up. Who is the core in Sacramento? Martin and....? Clippers: rookie Gordon was the best player on the team. Washington: couldn't get out of the first round even with everyone healthy. Memphis: their young guys seem more likely to regress than progress.
Whether we get Blake, Ricky, or whomever, at least we already have a team in place that's ready to take off, rather than fall on their face.
very nice article - kudos to Royce and Joe for keeping this place active . . .
@Vega
wishful thinking - Jason Thompson would go the bench in a minute if they chose Blake . . .
Ahem - Brandon Roy went sixth. Rajon Rondo all the way down at 21. Daniel Gibson 42nd. Paul Millsap 47th. Leon Powe 49th. But Sheldon Williams went fifth! Adam Morrison third! The NBA Draft - Where Stupid Happens.
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that's a little too harsh; it's easy to say that after the fact . . . you do have a point though - remember a lot of this stuff comes from the "he's not good enough to be drafted at that spot" mentality - GMs are too afraid to take chances and pick a guy without worrying where he SHOULD be taken . . .
Tskistovihli is playing in the 2nd league in Spain iirc. What a waste.
Look it up at eurobasket.com
If it's not Blake and Ricky, in that order, for whichever teams are drafting, the respective team's fans should riot.
@Vega
If that happens the Maloofs should have their ownership rights revoked and the fans of Sacramento should riot. And I'm a big Rubio fan.
You know, there is a decent possibility that Sacramento will take Rubio over Griffin if they get the first pick. They apparently really like Rubio, and they already have a power forward in Jason Thompson.
I like RW too, but in hindsight, I'd have taken Lopez.
Or at the very least, mildly discuss until May 19th when we can scream in agony or cheer in sheer joy. You know, when the real fun begins. :)
Aye very interesting.
I don't know if I do it, but it's definitely something to think about.
Here's what I keep asking myself: If you could go back last year and redraft with that 4th pick, as much as I love, absolutely love, Russell Westbrook...don't you have to take Brook Lopez 4th and pickup Mario Chalmers with the late first rounder?
Chalmers, Thabo (maybe Harden), Durant, Green, Lopez...interesting question, no?