The playoffs are locked up and the lottery teams are set. The season is nearly over and we’re very close to having a completely clear image of who will have the most ping-pong balls come the draft lottery. Right now, Oklahoma City sits as the fourth worst (or if you’re an optimist, 26th best) team in the league, with an 11.9 percent chance of winning. And while all these teams have nothing to win, they do have a lot of reason to lose. There’s some pretty tight races heading to the finish of who will get how many ping-pong balls. So what’s the final standings shaping up to look like?
Sacramento Kings: 16-64
Currently: 30th, 25 percent chance
Games remaining: at Denver, at Minnesota
Projected finish: 30th, 16-66. They’ve already locked it up. No breaking this down. And they’ll lose their last two anyway.
Los Angeles Clippers: 19-61
Currently: t-29th, 17.7 percent chance
Games remaining: at Utah, Oklahoma City
Projected finish: 29th, 20-62 The Clips will most certainly lose in Utah, dropping them to 19-62, but should beat the Thunder at home (where they’ve already beaten OKC handily once). Currently, they are tied with the Wizards for the second worst record with identical tallies of 19-61 and the two teams split the season series. (Lottery rules state that if two teams are tied, then they split the average amount of combinations. Just FYI.)
Washington Wizards: 19-61
Currently: t-29th, 17.7 percent chance
Games remaining: Toronto, at Boston
Projected finish: 28th, 20-62. With Gilbert Arenas returning the Wiz have played a bit better. The Raptors stink on the road and every team likes to win their home closer. Doubtful they win in Boston though. Looks like we’re heading for a tie at the 29th spot. That is, unless OKC can “upset” the Clips Wednesday.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 22-58
Currently: 27th, 11.9 percent chance
Games remaining: at Portland, at LA Clippers
Projected finish: 27th, 22-60. Really unless the Thunder goes crazy and win both their last games, I think they’re slotted at 27th. It’s possible to jump the Grizzlies if they lose twice and OKC wins twice, but looking at the schedule, that’s unlikely. Of course, they could tie each other. The Thunder can’t increase their chances at all seeing as the Wizards and Clips both have 19 wins and can’t catch OKC’s 22 with two to go. So at worst (or best, this is all so confusing), the Thunder will finish 27th with the potential to move up to 25th.
Memphis Grizzlies: 23-57
Currently: 26th, 8.8 percent chance
Games remaining: at Phoenix, Atlanta
Projected finish: 26th, 23-59 The Grizzlies could very well beat Phoenix, just because the Suns are done and look to kind of be cashing in their chips. Atlanta appears to be focused getting ready to head into the playoffs and it’s unlikely they’ll slip. As is, the Grizzlies could move up to 25th with two wins and two Minny losses, or could drop to 27th if they lose twice and OKC wins twice. Unlikely. So look for the Grizz to stay right at 26th.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 24-56
Currently: 25th, 6.3 percent chance
Games remaining: at Dallas, Sacramento
Projected finish: 25th, 25-57. Like all these bad teams, the Wolves are awful on the road and will likely lose to Dallas. But winning against Sacramento will seal their fate as the 25th best team in the league as OKC can’t catch them.
Golden State Warriors: 29-51
Currently: 24th, 4.3 percent chance
Games remaining: San Antonio, at Phoenix
Projected finish: 24th, 29-53. The Warriors are as low as they can go. But they could potentially move up as much as two slots if they win out (unlikely) and the Knicks and Raptors lose out (also unlikely). Beating the Spurs at home is more likely than beating the Suns on the road though (GSW is 8-30 on the road, 21-21 at home).
New York Knicks: 31-50
Currently: 23rd, 2.8 percent chance
Games remaining: New Jersey
Projected finish: 22nd, 32-50. The Knicks have just one game remaining and that’s at home. They are a half game worse than the Raptors right now, but have a very winnable game while the Raptors have two lose-able road games to finish the season.
Toronto Raptors: 31-49
Currently: 22nd, 1.7 percent chance
Games remaining: at Washington, at Chicago
Projected finish: 23rd, 31-49. The Knicks could lose at home to the Nets and the Raptors win one of these two and the current standings will hold. I think that’s unlikely, seeing as how bad Toronto has been on the road this year.
Milwaukee Bucks: 33-47
Currently: t-21st, 0.95 percent chance
Games remaining: Orlando, at Indiana
Projected finish: 21st, 33-49. The Bucks shouldn’t beat either of these teams, as they’re poor on the road and Orlando is looking for good mojo heading into the playoffs. Right now they’re tied with the Nets, but New Jersey has a winnable homer against Charlotte. It is very possible these teams wind up tied. But this far down the line, what’s four more ping-pong balls really going to matter?
New Jersey Nets: 33-47
Currently: t-21st, 0.95 percent chance
Games remaining: Charlotte, at New York
Projected finish: 20th, 34-48. Winning at home against a deflated Charlotte team seems reasonable. And with the Bucks having two semi-difficult games left, I think it makes sense for the Nets to finish on top.
Charlotte Bobcats: 35-45
Currently: t-19th, 0.65 percent chance
Games remaining: at New Jersey, at Orlando
Projected finish: 19th, 35-47. Here’s where it could get slightly interesting. The Bobcats should probably lose their last two. But if the Nets win out (or heck if the Bucks did too), we could have a three-way log jam for slot No. 21.
Indiana Pacers: 35-45
Currently: t-19th, 0.65 percent chance
Games remaining: Cleveland, Milwaukee
Projected finish: We can’t have four teams tied with 35 wins because the Bucks and Pacers play. I’m betting the Pacers win at home to lock up their spot with 36 wins. But they could still be tied with the Bobcats who could win in Ner Jersey. I think the Bobcats lose out and Indy claims No. 18 to themselves.
Phoenix Suns: 44-36
Currently: 17th, 0.5 percent chance
Games remaining: Memphis, Golden State
Projected finish: 17th, 46-36. What’s it matter, they’re stuck where they’re at. But they do have some influence with teams below them with home games against Memphis and Golden State. Thunder fans should be rooting for the Suns to play poorly to let the Grizzlies lock away that 26th spot so OKC doesn’t have to worry about it.
Consensus around these parts is that Warren won't enter the draft this year. We'll know more after the 18th, which is when Caple, Warren and Warren's mother have a scheduled sit-down to discuss the decision further.
A local writer and radio guy has stated a couple of times that he thinks Warren isn't ready for the NBA game yet. He's another tweener guard for one. Second, Kyle Weaver could shut him down, and Kyle wasn't a lottery pick and can't get a start for a bad NBA team. I tend to agree with him there.
Warren does have talent, and athleticism. I've seen what seems like a dozen true point guards get past him into the lane though. I mean, if Byron Eaton can do it whenever he wants, of course Ty Lawson could. Just imagine the next level.
@Kev
His biggest weakness is that he tries to do too much. Given the state of the team, there wasn't really much choice, but still. He turns the ball over too much as a result. His jumper is a little streaky, but that's pretty true of every college player. He really has a great all-around game, just hasn't gotten the hype of other guys. He led a pretty good Buckeye team in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, and 3pt%. He was even third in blocks. I think he'll be a steal if he falls as far as ESPN has him rated.
I think he'll be greatly served playing as a third (give or take) option on a team also. He can focus on defending and taking high percentage shots if he's not asked to carry the team. He'll very likely have a hard time figuring out which shots he should take and which he should pass out of in his first year, but he'll still be pretty efficient.
we can agree to disagree on Curry - you make valid points but this is such a bad draft that I think that any guy with his shooting skills will go high . . . I haven't had a chance to see Turner, so I will have go by your observations - what are his weaknesses??
@Kev
Curry was pushed so high by his big games in the tourney the last two years. After missing it this year, you'd be surprised how easy it is for GMs or experts to forget kids from small schools. Stuckey was easily a top 5 talent in 07, but he fell to 15. Curry does't have Stuckey's stats or physical ability. It's not a stretch to think Curry (a marginal athlete who is also short) could fall into the late first round.
And to be honest, I'm not sure I see how he's a top 10 pick in your eyes. A shooter is great, but Curry can barely play defense in college (even when he tries) and was shut down on multiple occasions by more talented players/teams. I don't see him ever being a starter on a good team, and I don't see how a great backup necessitates a top 10 pick. Teams picking in the top 10 are normally pretty bad. They don't need great depth pieces, they need top talents who can come and (eventually in many cases) hold down an important position within the starting lineup.
BTW, assuming Evan Turner from OSU realizes millions of dollars are better than sinking with the ship next year, what do you think about him? Not a PG, but he can handle the ball and run the offense when he needs. He has great range and is an efficient scorer (50% overall, 44% from 3). He's also a typical big 10 banger who plays hard on the defensive end and fights for rebounds. I like him, but it's hard to get a read on where he'll go. He could be what we want from Thabo, a great defender who will hit open shots with high efficiency.
Keith - no way does Curry last that long . . . I see him as a top 10 pick - 15 at the latest . . .
I'd really like Curry with the Spurs pick. He could be our Matt Bonner. He would come in for 15-20 minutes a game, hit a few threes, force the defense to react to his presence, and overall make the game easier for our big scorers. I'm not so high on him that I'd take him with a top 4 pick, but the later pick would be great.
I'm just not high on many people this year. DeRozan, like Westbrook was, is probably the best athlete in the draft, and he certainly has a lethal mid-range game, but I'm still suspect of a guy who barely plays defense and who could have made himself a top 3 pick by staying in school.
I'm still pretty big on James Harden, regardless of his two "not great" games in the tourney. After that I like Willie Warren. I like Curry a little less than those two, but I would be happy with him. The difference statistically between Warren and Harden and Curry shooting isn't that big, but Harden and Warren are both much bulkier and sturdier and I think will defend at the next level better than Curry can.
Basically, all three can shoot, all three can create their own offense, all three can distribute the ball some, and Curry is the odd man out on defense in the pros. Otherwise, I love him as the best shooter of the bunch.
Depending on where we draft, all three or at least two will likely be available to us. You can add in Wayne Ellington, but I like him below the other guys, same with Gerald Henderson.
I also like Demar Derozan of USC. I think he would be a great shooting guard in the pros. He didn't shoot the three well in his one season in college, but his jumper inside the arc is very spot on.
Thanks, John - I don't like the "so and so is not good enough to take at this position" approach to drafting - if we have a chance to get a decent player with our first pick, we can't worry about where he is rated. If a guy Presti wants is rated 10th by everyone, and OKC has pick #3, we may not have the luxury of waiting until #10 if we can't trade down.
Good point Kev, I would love to see Curry on this team. Maybe he'd be "overvalued" if we took him with our 2nd pick of the 1st round but he'd definitely fill a void.
Don't forget everyone, the Westbrook pick seemed to come out of left field, and we might be in for a similar surprise this year.
We need a shooter, period. We have one guy that can hit threes consistently (Durant) - we have another one that hits threes sometimes(Green) and we have two other very good midrange shooters (the two new guys, White and Livingston). If Anyone else shoots - well, you just hope and pray it goes in. Rubio would help us cut down on turnovers, but from what I've read his shot is not there and neither is Westbrook's. Like Keith said, they both need serious shooting work over the summer. I'm still on the Curry bandwagon, as this draft is LIGHT on pure shooters, and that's our greatest need. Even if he doesn't start, he can help us off the bench. Outside of Griffin, I don't see any other player being an automatic help to us next year . . .
haha true i was just trying to hope to all those people dead set on picking griffin :)
@dork
Unfortunately, even though everyone is looking to cut payroll, the first overall pick in the NBA Draft does not = a lower first round pick + an even lower first round pick + $6 million in an expiring contract (especially when that first pick is the only surefire elite prospect in an entire draft class who could contribute immediately...ESPECIALLY when it's a big man). But I like where your head's at.
All that to say, if it's the Clippers we're talking about..THERE'S ALWAYS A CHANCE!
why does everyone forget we have a 2nd pick in the first round? worse case if we don't land the top spot... our high 1st round pick + 2nd pick in first round + watsons expiring contract = 1st over all? only problem is this class being a "weak draft" but then again we have Sam "the mad genious" presti so what ever he thinks is good with me :)
Besides winning the lottery, after which we promptly draft Griffin, what is the best case scenario for the team? Obviously Presti should try his best to trade up to the top pick from anywhere, so I'm going to list my ideas under the assumption we don't have the top pick and can't trade for it.
2nd pick - Draft Rubio and move Westbrook to the 2. Get both of them in the gym and make sure they can hit open shots.
3rd pick+ - Trade the pick for an all-star caliber 2 or 5. We have cap and lots of teams are looking to cut payroll. This pick guarantees we have more to offer than any other team looking to trade.