I got an email from Crow (former frequent poster here)which among other things pointed out the really impressive rookie numbers for our “other” rookie D.J. White. I realize that the sample size is ridiculously small being only 7 games and 130 minutes, but I like crunching numbers and I enjoy writing and talking about basketball so bear with me. It’s a weak time of the year for Thunder news.
There are a ton of “one number” NBA metrics out there that essentially add up all of the players positive statistical contributions on the court and subtract the negative ones to come up with a number that tells us “how good” one player is, and then allow us to make comparisons with other players. What usually differentiates one metric from another is the weighting or value that is given to each stat. Is a rebound worth as much as a steal? Is a blocked shot more valuable than an assist. That’s the rub.
What I’m leading up to is that all of these metrics have some value, but you’ll never get consensus over which is best. John Hollinger is all about the PER. It’s everywhere you look on an ESPN site since that is where Hollinger is employed. Dave Berri is all about Win Score and Wins produced. The NBA has it’s own NBA “Efficiency” metric. I think PER and Win Score are about on par with each other, but I enjoy the ease of using the PAWS (position adjusted win score) because it’s quick, easy, and can be done in a few seconds with a calculator, and it adjusts for position played; calculating the PER is like going to the dentist for a root canal. The NBA Efficiency stat doesn’t account for missed shots, just made shots, so it rewards gunners. Just my 2 cents there.
So with regard to the 2008-2009 Thunder players, I stacked them all up side by side and let the numbers fall where they may. Just for fun I also added in each player’s points per shot (points divided by fga’s) and their individual offensive rating and defensive rating. I created a table and you can view it here.
Here are some observations:
- Again, of course the sampling is very small, but DJ White was one of, if not the best player on the team during the games he played. Look at the numbers. #2 in PER, #1 in PAWS and EFF.. He was among the leaders in PPS, offensive rating and defensive rating.
- D.J. White was second on the team in scoring per 36 minutes (17.2) behind Durant, but ahead of Westbrook and Green. Yet, he did it all with a lower usage % than any of those guys. So he flat out puts the ball in the bucket with the greatest of efficiency, without having to use tons of possessions to do it. And he did it late in the season, as a rookie, against playoff teams for the most part that were very serious.
- By most standards, Jeff Green is at best, an average Power Forward. Per the NBA Eff, he ranks out as the #20 NBA starting Power Forward. His ranking would be lower if you included backups with superior production, like Paul Milsap or Lamar Odom. Just so you know, on NBA Eff/48, D.J. White ranks out as the #10 NBA Power Forward, and Jeff Green the # 52. D.J.’s ranking puts him just below Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsap.
- Robert Swift is a legitimate backup NBA Center, which says more about the lack of big men in the association than it does about Robert. He will definitely get a job next year.
- Collison is again the “glue guy”, the unheralded dirty work, quiet contributor. I don’t know this for certain, but I would guess that smart people who crunch numbers see a lot of value in Collison and that he has a very high trade value in the league.
- Westbrook played like a rookie, but he sure has a lot of potential. He definitely justified his high draft selection.
- Weaver and Sefolosha are going to be part of a great “bench mob” for this team.
- Livingston is a very nice pickup. Offensively he is a mile better than Earl or Chucky as a backup 1.
- Chucky should be released. He has no value whatsoever to this team.
I could say a lot more, but brevity is the soul of wit. I just use this post as a discussion starter. It is clear that D.J. needs to be given every opportunity to get on the court next season as much as possible. D. J. may indeed be another example of Presti pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
I think the short answer is that he left his roots. When he was in training camp with the Sonics back in the day as an undrafted FA, his dad and him had a chat with then coach Nate McMillan and asked him what would Damien need to do to make the team. The answer from McMillan was essentially to be a scrapper, defensive stopper, hustle, energy guy every second on the court.
Damien did those things enough to make the team and he was an okay backup to Ray and Rashard, along with Flip Murray.
McMillan left to coach the Blazers, and DW got a 5 year contract and from my perspective, he stopped being that guy. He instead was best friends with Ray Allen. He modeled his game after Ray. It is apparent. He uses so many of the same moves as Ray. The problem is that Ray isn't a defensive scrapper, stopper or energy guy. He is a smooth shooting wizard who uses his great basketball IQ and decent atheleticism to get open shots and get to the rim occasionally. DW isn't that guy. But don't tell him that, because he wants to play like Ray, and he's just not in that league.
That's just my impression. He left his roots and tries desperately to play to strengths that he just doesn't have.
He could be a Maurice Evans type of player that changes a game with his good defense and key shooting, but instead he's just another guy who doesn't play defense and jacks up shot after shot. He doesn't look for his teammates at all.
Looking over these stats raises a question that possibly someone here can answer. What exactly is wrong with Wilkins? He's a reasonably good athlete and has perhaps the most impressive pedigree of any player in the history of the NBA. Yet he hasn't improved one iota since his second year. In fact, if there was a "least improved player" award. He'd be a strong candidate. I vaguely recall him having problems back at NC State that forced him to transfer.
We will have to disagree on Green, however, I will change my mind IF Brooks can now assert more authority and get Jeff to play defense . . .
While I agree that a veteran presence is important on a young team, I'll take Malik or Dez (if we could re-sign them to the vet. min of $3.1 million) any day of the week - and twice on Sundays - over Chucky.
I'm not advocating that the Thunder should trade Uncle Jeff, but it does seem that power forward is probably the deepest position in the league. Think about how many starting centers there are that are better suited to playing the 4. So if you ever have to use one of the Big Three as trade bait, Green would be the most logical choice.
I have to say that having both Joe and Royce has made the season that much better. Joe has followed this franchise for years, so I guess he's the veteran presence here. I appreciate that while he has his favorite player rating index, he doesn't ignore the others. And with Royce, I find myself saying, "Yeah, that's what it felt like to me too." They're both the kind of guys that make the people around them better. Well, maybe not Tebow-ish better, but I digress...
I agree Royce. Green brings a lot of positive intangibles to this team. If you notice, during timeouts on the sidelines, Brooks is always talking to him and obviously relays info to the team through Green. Many of the plays on the court go through him as well. He is the consumate team player. You need your superstar to make it to the top level but you will never get there without the real workhorses like Green and Collison.
I can't picture them trading Green - at least not in the next three years. I don't really think he's out of position, he's just a total tweener. He has some good qualities as the three and some good ones at the four. But he has his deficiencies at both too. He's clearly big enough to be a power forward (6-9) but he's just got to get better as a rebounder and help defender.
I don't think that Green will be traded. At the worst, he'll be the sixth man.
with all this enthusiasm , It's just another reason why I think Green gets traded at some point - it's difficult to sign a guy long term that is basically playing out of position . . .
I'm extremely excited about what D.J. can bring. Once he puts a little weight back on and gets stronger on the boards, I think he could be a legit 14-8 bench guy, or maybe even more if he were to start. He's got a great mid-range jumper and solid post moves. Plus a four-year college player so he's got some intangibles and basketball brains.
If DJ looked that good when he was not anywhere close to normal form, I can't wait to see him fully healthy.
I don't see DJ starting next year, but I do see him getting more PT. So It'll be interesting to see how he does against the opposing team's starting 5, at least part of the time.
I do like his shot, and I want to see if he can rebound when he gets back to his playing weight.
52% for a (primarily) jump shooting big man is excellent . . .
I like the way DJ White played - his jumper is excellent for a big man - of course, now other teams have tape, and he is going to have to bring other things to the table (like a low post game) to counter the moves that other teams will make to contest his jumper . . .
great post Daniel . . .
At the risk of stating the obvious, you have to be careful with analysis by stats. Playing and winning basketball is as much an art as a science. Filled with psychology and other immeasurables that never show up in the numbers. Which is why great coaches are great coaches - they understand the intangible aspects of the game along with the stats.
I think the best way to understand a team (or a particular game or player) is to watch them play. Then look over the stats afterwards. Combine what you see - and what you will see is a lot of intangibles - with the analytical side of the brain that digests the stats. The combined view will be much more accurate and detailed.
I think that during the regular season, a lot of the comments about the Thunder from some sports writers consisted of very little viewing of games, just mostly perusing collected stats. I don't know this for a fact, I'm just suspicious. And I think that's a pretty lousy way to assess teams (or players).
I'm not against stats. They're great. They're useful. Most importantly, they're objective. But they miss a lot of true value. They say a camel is a horse designed by a committee. I think a lousy basketball team would be one put together by the numbers geeks.
"Chucky should be released. He has no value whatsoever to this team"
Well... I understand what you're saying. But on a team full of rookies, sophs, third-year guys, etc. ANY veteran presence is of some value. Seriously.