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Thunder featured in new ESPN the Magazine

by Royce Young on April 9, 2009 at 12:23 pm 22 Comments

Just a totally, completely, entirely awesome piece by Ric Bucher (you need to be an Insider to read it online). I’ve already read it twice. Seriously.

The Thunder started the season 3-29, but they think they have the league right where they want it. Next year, the playoffs! (Laugh now, but consider yourself warned).

Bucher lays out seven things that OKC needs to accomplish or get lucky with to possibly make a run at the playoffs next season including “the lottery falls just right,” “Durant bulks up,” “the coach lays it out,” the team stays tough,” “the team settles in,” and “what’s already there gets better.” Potentially, according to Bucher if all those things come to fruition, he could see OKC adding 25 wins next season. Twenty-five! A little mathematics tells me the team’s record would look something like 46-36 then. Woo!

I liked this part:

As blue, yellow and orange confetti flutters from the rafters, and another rousing rendition of Oklahoma! blares over the PA, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook bounce up and down, arm in arm, the heart of a young team hug at center court of the Ford Center. Just a year removed from being vilified for deserting their sacred Seattle birthplace and getting off to a 3-29 start in their new town – one of the worst out-of-the-blocks stumbles in NBA history – the Oklahoma City Thunder are playoff bound. “We’ve dreamed of this day,” says owner Clay Bennett as he accepts handshakes and bear hugs, a scarp of confetti stuck in his brush cut. “We just didn’t dream of it coming so soon.” Hey, it could happen.

Ric Bucher may be more optimistic than me. But I love it. I got chills reading that. Just thinking about what could be… oooohh boy.

Bucher’s got OKC taking Hasheem Thabeet, which I’m not all that crazy about, but in his feature it’s got the Thunder getting better, which I’m all for.

They also have a contrarian viewpoint from Shoals (going as his real name, Nathaniel Friedman) on the matter.

But while all of this makes them a prime candidate for the NBA’s new cult favorites—the heir to the Brand/Odom/Miles Clippers, the Suns before anyone realized they were good, or the2006-07 Warriors—there’s no reason to assume they’ll improve enough to make the playoffs next season. That’s because, for all their spunk and character, the Thunder remain largely a work in progress.

And also, on the front page of ESPN.com’s NBA section, Bucher had lunch with Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and Kevin Durant and let me tell you, I laughed pretty much throughtout the whole thing. I can’t say how proud and excited I am that these three guys are the cornerstones and faces of this franchise.

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Crow
Crow 5pts

Every volume (and hopefully quality) 3 point shooter you add to the rotation is either going to bump one of Presti's picks downin minutes or out of the rotation off the team. Maybe he is so 3 pt lacking now to claim a different direction from Allen and Lewis but the heavy 3 pt game is the way the Spurs are going- 7th most makes in the league. Is Presti right and are RC Buford and Popovich wrong?

Crow
Crow 5pts

Make that 13. I missed Philly.

Jazz get away with it by being 2nd best at getting to line and having Boozer and Okur. Boozer also helps make them 5th best on amount of inside shots and Okur makes them 9th best mid-range.

Is that really the way Presti wants to go with the offense?Krstic, Green, White and the next guy going to be enough on both? One wouldn't be enough. OKC 11th highest on inside shots right now (with the drives) but league worst on mid-range shooting.

Crow
Crow 5pts

14 of th e16 playoff teams have made 450+ 3 ptrs. Thunder? Almost 1/3rd less at 314. Any media ever going to press Presti on why his design has gone this way and why and when it is going to change?

Crow
Crow 5pts

The Knicks? Same thing.

Crow
Crow 5pts

How did the Clippers improve so much relatively speaking on eFG%? Increased 3 pt attempts and makes by about 50% from last season.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Looking at Thunder defense at a lower level, I see that they made a pretty big move from 29th on forcing turnovers to 20th. But eFG% allowed increased by 1.2 %pts. They have to reverse that fully to get back near average on this (one of PJs few accomplishments).

Fully average offense and average defense would be a major achievement next season. But in the west this season that would get you 10th place. Bucher can talk up the playoff chances but the numbers show it is not going to be easy. Likely? Everybody can have their own opinion.

I assume Presti, if he decides to keep Brooks, will try to go 2 yrs and a team option. Brooks will want 3 guaranteed and probably more money than they offer. Will Sacramento or somebody else lure him away? Could happen.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Knicks improved eFG% by 2.9 percentage points and half a dozen teams did it by 1.5- 2.5 %pts. So moderate to bg jumps are possible and weredone. Not the Thunder though this season. Clippers improved by 1.6 %pts. More than five times the Thunder's improvement. Lot of catching up to do on shooting. Need shooters but probably need better play leadership / execution and simply better plays too.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Last season to this one team offensive efficiency improved 2.5 pts per 100 possessions but it is still more than 5 pts below league median. So they 'd have to improvement by twice as much to get to average. Team defensive efficiency actually slipped .3 pts from last season as of right now but a few other teams slipped more so they went from 22nd place to 20th.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Every team that made the playoffs in the west were 15th or higher on offensive efficiency. For the Thunder to go from 29th to 15th in one season would be a huge change.

Last season they shot 46.7 eFG%. This season 47.0%. 15th best on this is 50%. So team eFG% would have to increase by 10 times the amount it did from last season to this season. You'd have to radically increase inside shots or 3 pt shots or both.

Team turnover rate went from 28th last season to 30th this season. Denver was almost as bad so that by itself doesn't disqualify but they probably need to cut turnovers some. Natural growth might do it on this.

They are in fine shape on offensive rebounding and getting to the line. Maybe they get even better but the main issue is improving shooting be a lot.

On defense they are 20th and Portland was only 18th and Dallas 16th. Small improvement there is certainly desired and possible.

It basically all comes down to huge improvement in shooting percentage or moderate improvement on it accompanied by enough change elsewhere to be just enough.

To get huge improvement in shooting percentage no third tier guys should play at all like lately and almost all the first and second tier guys will have to improve. A few won't be near enough. Some trades seem likely to be needed to achieve this goal. This summer or later.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@donuteyes
Very good. I'll probably put that in the Bolts tomorrow to make sure everyone sees it. Thanks.

donuteyes
donuteyes 5pts

@Royce
speaking of positive stories about the thunder in the national media, on askmen.com, there is a list of the top 10 hype-worthy athletes in 2009. and guess who is number one? our very own kevin durant. it's a nice little piece, not news to any thunder followers, but cool nonetheless.

http://www.askmen.com/top_10/sports/top-10-hype-worthy-2009-athletes_1.html

Royce
Royce 5pts

I do really, really like Steve Novak. I'd sign him in a heartbeat for a reasonable price.

Bernard
Bernard 5pts

from now thru 2010/2011 season we have KD, Green, RW, Weaver, Thabo, White, Collison, Kristic on contract. With tons of picks coming up, I dont see the need for us to ship our players. All we have to do is to pick smart, use cap space wisely and give the young guys time to play together, create chemistry and mature. We will have a contending team in no time.

KingGondo
KingGondo 5pts

Considering how closely we played many opponents this year (even during the 3-29 start), I think if we give Brooks another year with improved younger players, a nice draft pick, and some good free agent pickups, 30 wins should be not only attainable, but EXPECTED next year.

I'm starting to wonder which of Presti's pickups he views as building blocks, and which are trade tokens. Livingston? Weaver? White? Would he be willing to trade Green or Russ? I think the fact that it's hard to get a feeling for what Presti is thinking really improves his bargaining power. Even if we don't get Blake (although I'm starting to think we will), I expect some nice moves this summer.

"Baby steps" is clearly his philosophy. The Celtics might look great right now, but I'd put good money that their championship last year is the only one they'll get with KG, Pierce, and Allen. Not much bang for your 3-superstar mega-salary buck. I like the fact that we're developing our young talent, and I can't wait for it to pay dividends in the coming years.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Nix
It is. I got it in the mail today.

And I liked this part from Shoals:
"It's also worth pointing out that, for a lot of the league, the Thunder were barely a real team this season. How many of their wins came as a result of sneaking up on teams who were already thinking past them? A team could not be more invisible, anonymous, and obscure than the Thunder were, even once they started winning at a respectable clip. For heaven's sake, between their generic unis, middle-of-nowhere location, abrupt move and roster full of youngsters, they made the Bobcats look like the Boston Celtics. You know how the world champs always have that target on their backs, every night? The Thunder had the opposite of that going, and almost every night. Next season, if Durant's rep gets around, or teams remember how unexpectedly feisty OKC was a season ago, we could see them paid the worst compliment possible: respect. Even if the Thunder do play that much better in 2009-10, it could be canceled out by opponents taking them half-seriously."

Very true and like you said, very realistic.

Also, sometimes ESPN360 has games and NBATV has Euro games on Saturday's. Other than that, no idea. www.ballineurope.com is a good English Euro blog.

dork
dork 5pts

Not sure if this has been asked before but is there anywhere on the web we can watch the games in which Ibaka plays? (i just can't get enough of him lol)

Vega
Vega 5pts

Camby is too old, plus, we would probably have to give up Weaver, Livingston, or White to get him, and I don't like the idea of trading any of them. Von Wafer is the future of the Rockets, so it is highly doubtful that they would trade him.

Everybody needs to calm down and be patient. Give the current roster some time to grow. We need to realize that this is a long term plan that Presti has. He isn't going to make any sort of hasty and stupid trades. He's going to put together a team that can be a winner for a long time, and that means building a solid, young core, not trading parts of said core for a thirty-five year old center.

Nix
Nix 5pts

woo...Camby...now that's a nice fit...

Shoals article was great too...and far more realistic...I hadn't really thought of people respecting us next year thus making it more difficult for us to win till he mentioned it...

Is that issue of ESPN the Mag out now?

J.G. (Joey)
J.G. (Joey) 5pts

If we can get Von Wafer from the Rockets and Camby from the Clips during free agency and land a top 3 pick...I'm not going to say we'll win 30 more games but I would absolutely be ecstatic and expect VAST improvement in wins and overall quality of play.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@dork
I know, I laughed when he said brush cut. I always thought it was "buzz" cut.

dork
dork 5pts

... a brush! lol I've ran into uncle jeff a few times around town. Good guy

Trackbacks

  1. Thursday Bolts – 3.25.10 | Daily Thunder.com says:
    March 25, 2010 at 8:48 am

    [...] don’t know what reminded me of it, but anyone remember Ric Bucher’s ESPN the Mag article last year that came out around this time? Basically it said the Thunder had a shot at the playoffs. Boy, [...]

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