Reader Kev was at the 66ers game last night and had some great comments about D.J. White and Kyle Weaver’s performances. I thought it needed to be bumped up to maybe catch some more eyeballs.
Actually, White was not that good on the boards – he had seven boards – four were offensive and three of those were attempted tip ins – come on, if you’re 6-9 you should be able to get more than 3 defensive rebounds in 36 minutes of action. I didn’t see the aggressiveness from White that you need at THAT level to warrant time in the NBA. He was very good at jump shots, as he put in at least four of those from 15 to 19 feet. Sadly, he did very little post up work. In fact, he got the ball in the post TWICE all game. The first time he turned and faced immediately after catching it (he hit a jumper from about 12). The last time he fumbled the ball after starting to dribble, and almost turned it over in the process. He offered little defensive resistance inside all night, so (based off of one game I know) it doesn’t look promising.
Weaver looked okay at the point. He registered 11 assists, but when you play in a game in which transition and rotating defense is almost non existent, you can rack up the assists if you are a willing passer (which he is). He did okay at ball handling, even though he had two bad passes out of traps. With Livingston on hand, I don’t think he will be seeing the point with the Thunder anytime soon. Still, it was fun to see him take his “demotion” in stride – he was in a good mood the whole game, and even gave a fist pound to all the statisticans before gametime.
Great stuff. I’m a little disappointed about White’s post game. At Indiana he was lethal in the post. I hope he’s not trying to be a jump shooting big man. Been there, done that (Johan Petro). Also, you can check out last night’s 66ers box score here. Weaver played all 48 minutes and had 24 points (11-17 shooting), 11 assists and seven rebounds. White had 28 points and seven rebounds in 37 minutes of run.
Both players have been recalled and that’s the last time White is going down for the season. Under league rules, a player can only make three trips down and up between D-League and NBA. Hopefully White can get a little burn in these next seven games.
Also, Darnell Mayberry had an explanation as to why Weaver was sent down:
“He’s going to be able to play there two games and only miss one game here,” said Brooks, indicating Weaver is likely to be recalled prior to Sunday’s game against Indiana. ”I like what he has done for us, and he will continue to improve because he is a great worker. But he’s getting minutes down there and it helps when you get minutes. I know he was getting 16, 17 minutes up here, but he’s getting 40 minutes down there. I thought he did a good job. He was filling up the stat sheet. They didn’t win the game, but I thought his numbers and his play was pretty good. So he’s just getting an opportunity to play extra minutes.”
The current starting lineup is 0 good player pairs and 4 bad ones. Out of 10 pairs. That's not good and I'd guess it will be an uphill struggle to make it work. the poor +/- lineup results is in synch with the pair data.
Westbrook - Weaver - Green - Collison - Krstic? 3 good, none bad.
Have they tried it? Not a single second all season. Tried hundreds of lineups but not this one. What up Sam?
Both Brooks good and bad pairs might need to be raised some as the 2 accounting methods weren't exactly equal but the big overall difference would remain.
My average lineup has 3 positive player pairs and 1.5 bad ones.
Brooks in these 2 games was roughly speaking at about .5 good and 2 bad ones.
Pretty big difference.
I might well be overrating this form of analysis but I'd say they are under using it too.
I have noted the good and bad player pairs here and there but I'll note the good and bad ones again in a broad overview and in specific lineup sets by Brooks and by myself.
Which player pairs are "best"? Hard to say without the adjusted player pairs but using some judgment it looks like the following:
Westbrook- Collison
Sefolosha- Weaver or Collison
Durant ...
Green - Weaver
Collison - Kristic
That is really all that might be =consider better than normal.
How many times did my lineup rotation hit these 5 pairs? 20 times. An average of 2.5 times per lineup.
How many times did Brooks hit them in the Portland game? Just 4 times. Once a quarter. How many times did brooks hit them in the Portland game? 4 times. Obviously they aren't steering the ship by this. Very different results in these games but that isn't a surprise. Thunder are the 5th most inconsistent team in the league by one study.
I'd certainly recommend a lineup rotation that favored these best pairs far more heavily. It is still guessing but I think it is more likely to be better guessing, better fit.
What about the really bad ones? they are:
Durant- Sefolosha, Green, Kristic
Green -Sefolosha
How many did Brooks play in 2 previous games? 12 and 16.
How many did I use? 16. I should and probably could reduce that.
So I tried a rearrangement and got 26 good pairs and 12 bad ones. In a few minutes work.
Westbrook Livingston Durant White Kristic
Westbrook Sefolosha Green Collison Kristic
Livingston Weaver Durant Green Kristic
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Green Collison
Westbrook Livingston Durant White Collison
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Green Collison
Westbrook Livingston Durant Collison Kristic
Livingston Weaver Durant Green White
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Collison Kristic
Livingston Weaver Durant Green Kristic
Westbrook Weaver Durant Collison Kristic
Westbrook Sefolosha Durant Green Collison
Westbrook 36
Livingston 24
Weaver 28
Sefolosha20
Durant 32
Green 28
White 12
Collison32
Kristic 28
240
Does it have glitches? Of course. Does it have merit? I think so.
Sefolsha SG - Durant SF -14 in the 3rd. That ain't fit.
Sefolsha SG - Durant SF puts up another stinker first quarter -13 in less than 10 minutes. Are they going to keep doing that the rest of the season?
Want to make room for White and possibly another big? Slide Durant and Green down some or cut one or both's time or cut Collison or Kristic's. I'd do some of the first two more than the latter.
Could you play some with Durant SG / Livingston SF on offense and the reverse on defense? Maybe you call that Durant playing SF still or you could say it is a little different. Could Livingston playing more inside, making hand-offs to cutters or slipping past a big guy work? Might be worth a few minutes look. Might be better than Westbrook-Livingston-Durant all stacked outside.
If you limited Durant to SG when playing a sub, who is not quick or a good finisher, or a good shooter period and when Durant's outside shot is falling, and they have the lead or are way behind for 2-4 minute stretches does it work ok? Not great, just ok for the team, which would be an accomplishment given Durant's overall adjusted and raw +/-? Presti can check those stats is he wants to. Better to know than not know.
Trying Durant at PF another 50 -100 minutes would probably as or more useful. But that creates even more overlap between Durant and Green.
But if you or they have totally given up on Durant at SG at all that is fine. I wouldn't use it more than 8 minutes and I wouldn't "want" to use it period. If Presti gets the right starting SG they won't have to. He hasn't yet.
I said Durant at SG is a part of no stone left unturned several times.
He is estimated at almost -8 per 48 minutes on adjusted +/- playing 85% at SF. Worst on team this season. http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2008-2009&team=OKC
Adjusted is crude and prone to significant errors at a rate of at least 1 in 3 but this estimate is saying that pro-rated to 40 minutes Durant's net impact is almost -7 on a team that loses on average by 6 points a game. It is worse than last season.
My point is it will be very challenging to resolve this.
Yes he is a SF but you will need to find combos that work better than they have so far.
Durant has sometimes been compared to McGrady was far better at SG than SF this season. I don't think McGrady is faster than Durant. Durant at SG a bit with better coaching , PG play and a tough interior big combo might- just might- play a minor role in an overall lineup strategy that emphasizes creating mismatches and forcing the other coach to scramble.
please explain why Durant at SF doesn't work for the team - are you telling me that he's not a SF for any team? Where would YOU play him?? Where would any other team play him?? I am confused as to what point you are trying to make . . .
Durant at SF works for Durant but not for the team- yet- so you either stay with that and hope it gets better or you keep experimenting with the new player combos. SG is unlikely the direction for more than spots if at all. PF is probably not the right move either at for now. If they get a stud PF though either Green becomes totally a bench player or you might have to look at Durant 1/4 to 1/2 at SG again. I see more to gain in terms of knowledge from a brief re-visit to Durant at SG - we're talking 50 minutes or so- then adding 50 more minutes to the 2000+ you've already seen of Durant at SF this season.
I was talking about defense - I won't matter who's coaching him - he can't keep up with the quicker guys who usually play at the two vs the three- I am confident that was why Brooks immediately switched Durant up to the three . . .
Durant at SG is mostly just a patch job / option til they get another shooter and as I said to free time for White but it might also be worth briefly checking back on Durant at SG - without PJ or Westhead- to determine how much was him playing out of position for poor offensive coaches and how much was just him stepping up / figuring out the game. Check him with a more experience Westbrook or Livingston. I just put him there 8 minutes a game. It is about experimenting now so you are ready to cut things down next season. Open a door again to either decide to keep it open a bit or close it permanently.
you still have to start a SF - so whether you classify Durant as SG or PF you get the same restults - can't just switch the names
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Durant is NO match for shooting guards on the defensive end - none whatsoever . . .
Need a SG who can shoot? Right now I'd plug in Durant occasionally against the right match-ups in the right moments- when you need 3 point shooting and tell him to let it rip.
Sure try Livingston, Weaver, and Thabo too.
I wanted to make sure to include the already tried and very good
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha and your suggestion is probably in the same vein though I wasn't thinking of Livingston as that good a defender.
If you didn't study my minute distribution closely the main principles are: lots of two ballhandlers, minimize Durant with Green or Sefolosha but still use them some to give them a chance to redeem themselves or close the subject, play two tough bigs together more for defense, make a bit of room for White (check him at both positions in big and small lineups) by sliding Green and Durant some. And use lineup +/- to choose which lineups to emphasize instead of just rolling out who are considered the best players. Most on these lineups are pulling off actual good - and pretty rare in that regard- results of 5 man lineups or modifying other good lineups with 1 substitution.
@Crow
It is not an inference. If you don't believe that this poor fit will continue then why would you report on it so heavily? You must think that there is something to worry about. I think that the guys that Presti picks have the drive to work on their problems over the offseason and will work together to create the chemistry. If they don't, then that sucks, but it will have been a valiant attempt.
I just want to see the best three perimeter defenders (Livingston, Weaver, and Thabo) on the court together - it probably won't happen - Brooks is pretty consistent with his rotations, and Durant logs so many minutes (absent a blowout) . . .
I'd try something like this for the remaining games and then evaluate the results:
4 minute intervals
Westbrook Livingston Durant Collison Kristic
Westbrook Durant Green White Collison
Livingston Weaver Durant Green White
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Collison Kristic
Westbrook Livingston Durant Green Collison
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Green Kristic
Westbrook Livingston Durant Collison Kristic
Livingston Durant Green White Collison
Westbrook Weaver Sefolosha Collison Kristic
Livingston Sefolosha Durant Green Kristic
Westbrook Weaver Durant Green Kristic
Westbrook Sefolosha Durant Green Collison
Westbrook 36
Livingston 24
Weaver 20
Sefolosha 20
Durant 36
Green 32
White 12
Collison 32
Kristic 28
240
Only blockbuster trades would keep spending above $65 million. At $68.5 million they were 19th on spending. Who knows how much and how widely team payrolls dip next year around the league but $60 million would be 29th place this season and $55 million would be 30th.
Team spent $68.5 million this season. I think the odds are quite high they will spend less than $60 million next season. It is better than even odds it will be under $55 million.
To be precise I have just reported what the fit has been to date and have not projected the future. I may not be as optimistic as most but I've never said that the lack of fit inevitably will continue. If you infer that I think that, it may be understandable, but it is an interference and not what I said.
I think we should reserve such harsh judgment until the middle of next season. There are a lot of intriguing things about this team and I think we all know that this is all potential and not concrete. But, I think most of us are looking forward to seeing what these guys can concoct over the offseason. Your pessimism is a little too much to handle once you think about how young these guys are (even Thabo and Shaun are young) and how little time they have had to find chemistry with one another.
Westbrook has 4... and only Livingston will be on the roster next season, And that was a -2 in 1 game. The only fit I see is with some of the rest of cast rather than the "stars".
And Green's are Rose and Sene.
Lots af ways it could go over time. Including trading some of the "ballers" for pieces they guess might fit better. But it is the same guy(s) guessing on fit. Durant has no player pairs in the team's top 50. Green 2.
For 2010-11 Sam has 7 spots currently committed. Livingston and Thabo would be 9. 2 first round picks this season would be 11. 2 next season would be 13. That would leave room- without further roster slot reduction- for 2 of Ibaka or free agents in the next 2 years. Will take work to shed players or draft picks and improve. Maybe he banks 1 or more of the next draft picks overseas. With the assorted risks of getting nothing.
If Minny slips down past OKC (and with 2 more recent injuries they could easily) then Presti will have a 78% chance of picking 6th -9th. That ain't what you want after a sub .300 season.
You could guess that 25 teams think they will be better next season. 10-15 will probably be disappointed. I say this mainly because I think the league will be tougher next season. Other teams will recover from injuries or benefit from the experience of playing young guys or getting pieces they need.
I'd be happy with Ellington with our San Antonio pick.
At 26 will Wayne Ellington be there? Touch n go.
Meant to say Collison not Lawson above.
I know it's only one game, but hopefully Livingston will stick - if so we won't need a PG - we can just get a big guy and a shooter - time will tell . . .
Phoneix slips and maybe you get a late lottery pick next summer. What will that get? Jrue Holliday? Best case Willie Warren or Greg Munroe? Worst case Singler or James Anderson? Is that going to help? I'd rather hit the free agent market than tie up more roster spots on young guys.
Difference between 3rd most lottery balls and 5th is an almost 50% chance of a top 3 pick vs about 30%. or to cut it a different and also meaningful way- 5th in lottery order and you have a 70% chance of picking 5th to 8th. 3rd in lottery order and you have a 70% chance of picking top 4.
What can they get at 26? Conventional wisdom says Hansbrough will be available but I think it is more likely not. Who else is there? Lawson or Mills? Are they really going to add another PG? Worth more than just shopping on the free agent market? Unlikely. The vaunted extra draft picks might end not worth much. At least this one.
Even the #2 pick in this draft doesn't guarantee a starter, especially if Rubio sticks overseas for another year . . .
It is a game of many decisions. Stick with PJ 4 more weeks and there would have been a much better chance you'd be getting a top 3 pick.
Kapono is a decent suggestion. We could also try packaging the pick with Watson/Wilkins/Atkins to get Andres Nocioni.
agree with Joe - it's a bad time to have a draft pick, and Thabeet IMO is a guy that might be a rotation guy - I don't see him as a long term solution in the paint - his inconsistent hook shot would look even worse in the NBA with the wider lane . . .
Turiaf, Luke Walton, maybe Vujacic, maybe Kapono
Conventional wisdom says take a shooting guard who can actually shoot, but if we get say the third pick, I'm not crazy about our options. Harden is more of a slasher and may go 2nd. Gerald Henderson and Willie Warren aren't really top five material. We could be stuck in no mans land: A pick so high that you don't want to over reach, but not so high that you get the prize at the top (Griffin).
I'm watching the Uconn game, and I actually like Thabeet, but not in the high lottery. I like him much better outside of the lottery.
It's really just not a good draft from what I can see. If you got a mid lottery pick with our first, say in the 5-7 range, what do you think a team would give you for it?
Trading players for players who cost more might be promising in this market.
Assuming Rose, Swift and Mason are all gone. Moving or buying out Atkins or Watson or Wilkins would help.
Presti has $25 million or so he could spend but only 3 open roster spots at least right now and if at least 2 are filled from the draft then he might add 1 free agent.
Hoopshype has Livington making a pro-rated 1/9th share of about $750,000. I don't know if they have a source or just assuming this though.
Pops Mensah-Bonsu is a great offensive rebounder. No jump shot and a modest finisher and shoots too often for these stats but I see good defense and very good on/off. Vega's recommendation might be worth further investigation for a deep bench role.
A bit off topic, but I really hope that we can sign Pops Mensah-Bonsu. He would be a very useful backup to Green and Durant.
I think if we don't get the top pick Presti will strongly consider trading our pick. It almost makes sense to if you can get something worthwhile out of it. And like Vega said, as a result, we may take on a bad contract.