Who’s ready? I just got back from Quail Springs Mall. I ended up throwing $600 worth of pennies into their fountain. I hope that’s not wasted cash. We are in a recession you know. Truthfully, I’m just ready for this to be over and done with. Come 8 p.m. tonight, we’ll all know where we’re picking and then we can spend a month talking about what will happen with the next step. But I’m just ready to be on to that next step.
7:26 p.m. CST: Let’s do this. I just got through with my 114th viewing of Sons of Thunder, so I’m almost there.
7:29: A mock lottery has about as much chance of being right as a mock draft, but I’m going on record: 1. Wizards 2. Kings 3. Thunder 4. Clippers 5. Timberwolves 6. Grizzlies 7. Golden State 8. New York 9. Toronto 10. New Jersey 11. Milwaukee 12. Indiana 13. Charlotte 14. Phoenix. I didn’t have the stones to pick it (as if my picks really matter), but for some reason I really feel like the Knicks are going to win it. I have no idea why, just a feeling.
7:30: By the way, I would have just live Twittered this thing, but I can’t keep comments to just 140 characters. I just can’t. I have to write more than that. Because… I just can’t stop typing. I just always want to say more. I write and write and write. See? I’m doing it again. I mean, what’s wrong with me? (trails off, mumbling to myself)
7:32: I’m not going to lie, I really dig Ricky Rubio. The guy is likable. He always struck me as a “rock star” type player, but he said in a little featurette that he’s extremely shy and doesn’t like to be the center of attention. Nice to know.
7:34: You what I’m happy about? That Jay Bilas is not the general manager of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
7:39: Oh holy crap, NOBODY CARES ABOUT THE WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS! Sheesh. Don’t they know this? It’s all about the teams that weren’t very good this year and have to watch where some ping-pong balls drop to determine their immediate future. That’s what tonight is about.
7:41: Hey guess what? Another commercial. I guess now we know how they drag this out to 30 minutes. I think you add in a few more segments explaining the lottery process, maybe have an extra interview or two with David Stern, replay Magic Johnson’s comments about being the top pick 14 times and you’ve got a two-hour special. I should take over as programming director.
7:43: I have to keep telling myself that it’s not all over if we don’t get No. 1. Blake would be some serious icing on the cake, but there’s good players to be picked regardless. We all need to keep telling ourselves this. Because it’s truth. Besides, trust in Sam Presti. He could take Marcus Landry at five and somehow Landry would be in the rookie of the year discussion next year. It’s just the Presti touch.
7:46: Scotty! I see he’s rocking his lucky side-part spike. Good choice Coach. And a bracelet from his eight-year-old daughter. Way to go coach. Now you can deflect blame and we can send it to your sweet little daughter for letting down this franchise.
7:47: If I disappear for a little while, it’s because I just vomited all over my keyboard. Just a heads up.
7:48: Yeah! Screw the Pacers! I just want to make it to the next commercial break.
7:50: I just fainted. I’m lying dead on the floor. Someone help me. I think my heart just literally jumped out of my chest and ran down the street and got ran over by a bus.
7:51: I freaking love this Heineken commercial, but this is probably the toughest two-minute commercial break in history. I am shaking. Literyrally shakdiujgng. I cadjn’t evebnd tydspe.
7:53: Well eff. The dream is over. I hate the Clippers. Congratulations on ruining Blake Griffin’s career. Worst case scenario (other than us getting No. 3). I want to know who didn’t watch Sons of Thunder all 119 times. Who? WHO!?!?
7:56: I really can’t believe we were that close. I’ve never hated seeing our logo so much in my life. SO CLOSE. But look, we’re going to get a great player there and a player that we want. But for the next month we’re going to have to fight the Thabeet-Harden debate. Sigh… I can’t believe how close we were.
Ok, so let’s recap. The lottery pretty much held to form but started unraveling near the top five. And a result, we could feel it. We made it to the commercial break and had visions of Blake Griffin in Thunder blue. But of course, as fast as our excitement shot initially, it was torn down as we were the first drawn after the commercial. But all is not lost. Picking third is almost as good as one and is right behind two. So that’s good, right? So now we reflect, rehash and get ready for a good couple weeks of draft discussion. The point is – we’re going to get a good player. Sure, maybe it’s not going to be Blake Griffin (but then again, Mike Dunleavy is the general manager for the Clippers… I guess it’s possible), but it’s going to be a guy that helps.
And of course, we can’t underestimate Presti. He may swing a deal for Griffin, Rubio and land Chris Paul in a trade for all we know. He is pretty smart. Or he’ll just draft James Harden and Harden will be a perfect fit, challenge for rookie of the year and help the team take that next step toward respectability. Basically, I believe in Sam Presti.
@nick
Amen, nick.
Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green and Gortat as the starting unit.
Livingston, Weaver, Thabo, White, Collison, and Krstic as backups (don't see Watson or Chucky or even Desmond coming back).
Now that's a team that could push for the playoffs, with their oldest player being, what, 26-27?
ESPN has Rubio falling to us at #3
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MockDraft-090519
RUN AND HIDE from Thabeet. Being tall does not make you a good center (see Bradley, Shawn). He was absolutely massacred by Blair, who is very undersized. He cannot handle contact, and has bust written all over him. Draft Harden (assuming we can't get Rubio) and pick up Gortat to play defense and rebound inside.
@Daniel
Thabeet has NEVER bodied anyone in his entire career. He's not that guy, as Kev pointed out. He's basically a SF in a 7'3 body (without a SF's jumpshot). Toss on the fact that he is going to have to really, REALLY adjust to not being able to camp under the basket to get his blocks and rebounds AND try to develop post moves while banging up against people, and Thabeet will take 2-3 years to contribute IF AT ALL.
Thabeet's the bigger risk v reward prospect. Harden is the most NBA ready (sans Griffin and Rubio) and you know pretty much what you're going to get from him, which would fill two needs the Thunder desperately have: outside shooting/spacing and creativity/ball movement.
I really like the idea of both of the thunder's first rounders for the first overall. hell, i would seriously consider the two this year and one from next. i might be clinically insane though.
@Daniel
remember - Thabeet doesn't even LIKE contact . . . he's not going to want to body up anyone - how could you forget how he was embarassed by Blair this year . . .
Durant & Griffin would be scary. but oh welll
@Daniel
The gasol trade had nothing to do with luck, and everything with David Stern needing Bryant to stay in LA!
@Keith
I agree with you there Keith. Krstic is decent defensively but nothing special and Collison is too small to play center and he's not really a shot blocker/shot changer.
Thabeet would give us someone to body up ( and loom over) Bynum, Pau Gasol, Greg Oden (if he ever develops), Duncan, compete with Yao, etc.
Plus finding a big athletic center is just very rare and hard to do. Most teams get theirs through the draft (Duncan, Bynum) or pay through the nose in free agency (Tyson Chandler).
Or get lucky in a lopsided trade --> see: Lakers --> Gasol, Pau
Checkout what people are saying on the draft lottery!
http://myespn.go.com/s/conversations/show/story/4181208
Ya, sure, every team would like a dominant center. Too bad that's not Thabeet. Just because you want a great big doesn't mean you draft a tall guy and pray for a miracle.
Draft James Harden.
@Keith
I agree.
@Vince
I think an important questions to ask are 1) can the team really score enough and efficiently to allow Krstic and Collison to simply bang? 2) can those guys really even bang with the frontcourts in the West? Green can't really defend or rebound in the post and neither Collison nor Krstic is a threat against starting centers that the Thunder will be seeing quite often.
i meant to say when the shots "aren't" falling, we have no one inside to get us easy buckets.
Then again, Hasheem Thabeet isn't exactly a low post scorer either.
I still like him over Harden though, but I trust Presti either way.
I wouldn't mind Thabeet, but I do think that Krstic/Collison gets a bad rap from Thunder fans. Between the two of them, we're getting a double-double almost every night. Defensively, we could do better, for sure. I'm not saying that the combo is in the top 10 in the league. But I think you can build around them. I still say a Russ/Harden/KD/Green 1-4 can score enough to let Krstic, Collison and White bang. And I think those three bigs can play enough defense and get enough rebounds to let the team compete.
Long story short, I like Harden better and I don't think the need for a big is big enough to pick Thabeet, who I think is the lesser prosepct.
Nix :Kev is testy with all this Thabeet talk…(Haha)
I think if Presti takes Thabeet then he’ll have a far better chance of developing into a great player then I’m giving him right now…
but count me in the Thabust category…
I admit it, I am SCARED TO DEATH that Presti picks Thabeet . . .
If that happens, I will go out to the local grocer and get lots of paper shopping bags and a pair of scissors . . .
So....what did I miss?
:)
Harden all the way, unless the Grizzlies go for Thabeet, then we take Rubio (or unless Dunleavy is the dumbest man on the planet, so basically, there's actually a better chance to get Griffin than Rubio, ha!).
@Vega
I'd consider Tim Duncan a dominant big. Sure he didn't play center, but he's a legit low post scorer/rebounder/shot blocker. Who do we have now that can do that?
Bottom line, this is a jump shooting team right now and that's dangerous because when the shots are falling, there's no one inside to get us a few easy buckets.
Kev is testy with all this Thabeet talk...(Haha)
I think if Presti takes Thabeet then he'll have a far better chance of developing into a great player then I'm giving him right now...
but count me in the Thabust category...
@BigEasy
I really don't know what to think about it honestly. So much of this stuff is up in the air and a lot of it is posturing. Hard to tell what teams will really do until June 25th.
Even if Memphis is in love with Thabeet, they'll likely trade down with us instead of just drafting him.
it has been mentioned - and I don't believe a word of it . . .
I don't know if anyone has mentioned this, there are way too many comments to go through. But on espn.com they say the Grizzlies really dig Thabeet and have them drafting him in their mock draft.. which leaves us with Rubio! Now that would be awesome.
@Vega
First of all, Tim Duncan is the Spurs center. He is listed as a PF because he was drafted while the Spurs still had Robinson. Robinson was listed as the C while Duncan was listed as the PF. Both of them, however, are centers. You can't talk about the Spurs winning with Nazr and Rasho when both of those guys were playing next to Duncan, the most dominant center since Shaq in his prime.
The problem is that all of our frontcourt players are Nazr and Rasho right now. We don't have a Tim Duncan to make Krstic, Collison, or even Green look good.
When talking about Thabeet, I just think of two things. One, Thabeet can't score and is known for his defense (which is shoddy against decent competition). Two, our offense was very very bad, and needs to be helped more than our defense. Thabeet is not really a need. Every team would love to have a 7'3" baller, but Thabeet simply isn't that guy. He's 7'3", but he's no "baller."
I'm just out on Thabeet... maybe I shouldnt be, but I am
Alex :
Does anyone know if a legit Grizzlies fan blog even exists? I was interested in who their fans are talking about…
3shadesofblue.com is a good Grizzlies blog.
Yeah, I guess you need fans to have a blog...Chad Ford's mock draft is just really intriguing with that mention of Memphis and Thabeet...
hopefully they want Thabeet
You could go to the black hole that is the official Grizzlies message board.
Does anyone know if a legit Grizzlies fan blog even exists? I was interested in who their fans are talking about...
@Kev
I'm not sure, to be honest. I was just playing devil's advocate.
And I'm not a fan of Thabeet at all, I was just laying out a scenario where Presti might find him an attractive option at the No. 3.
@Kev
I'm merely saying that if you're following the recent Spurs model, a dominant big isn't a priority.
did our offensive rank ever go up -
I will do you one better - our defense stunk it up too at the beginning, but after we got Thabo and Weaver started playing, our Defensive rank got better . . .
@Kev
You're looking at the full season picture, when next season's reality will be closer to the last two months of the season compared to the first few months.
We spent, what, 30+ games last year with a roster that looked not a whole like how it ended.
No Krstic, no Thabo, no Livingston, no White (who is a serviceable scoring big man off the bench.) And don't forget, it wasn't until part way through the season that Durant and Green became the Durant and Green that we now know they are, and it was 15 or so games before Westbrook became and got comfortable as the starter at PG.
@Vega
come on Vega, those teams were built around a dominant post - something we don't have . . .
still, Thabeet is horrible . . .
also, does anyone think that Thabeet starts next year?? Over Krstic?? No way - meanwhile Harden steps right in at the 2 . . .
The '05 Spurs championship team had Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic as the centers. The '07 Spurs championship team had Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson as the centers. Krstic and Collison is a better pair of centers than both of those pairs.
Kev :explain why Thabeet is “high character” . . .
For one thing he's waiting to be drafted so he can help his people back in Africa plus i've read numerous times that he is a very nice person.
our offense was worse . . .
the thing about Presti and Thabeet is, we know and he knows that our defense has to get better. HAS TO.
On draft day, if he thinks that Thabeet can step in and immediately be a defensive difference maker, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he drafted him.
Vega :
Harden is a high character guy who is much less likely to be a bust. Plus, when you look at the championship winning Spurs teams, after the Admiral retired, none of them really had a dominant big man, so, if you are following the Spurs model, a dominant big isn’t very important. I think that Presti will try to create another Parker/Ginobli with Westbrook and Harden before getting a big man.
This is very true. Good point Vega.
The similarities between Parker/Ginobili and Westbrook/Harden are really striking.
Kev :
Royce, Joe, and others:
Does anyone think that Presti will pick Thabeet? Knowing what you know about both men???
Hmm, this is tough. I'm sure both Joe and I will cover this to death over the next couple weeks, but I'm not ruling it out by any means. Most people seem to really like Thabeet. But most of us (who I think are really smart people) see him as a potential bust. It all adds up.
But I absolutely would not rule it out. It's a definite team need and Thabeet IS 7-3. But Nenad Krstic can be a very good 7-foot center. He only had half a season mind you. So depending on what Presti thinks of Krstic, he may consider the spot already filled. I think it comes down to Harden or maybe someone we're not expecting.
Harden is a high character guy who is much less likely to be a bust. Plus, when you look at the championship winning Spurs teams, after the Admiral retired, none of them really had a dominant big man, so, if you are following the Spurs model, a dominant big isn't very important. I think that Presti will try to create another Parker/Ginobli with Westbrook and Harden before getting a big man.
no GM is dumb enough to listen to Bilas . . .
Maybe Bilas' rankings will help us after all? Thabeet over Rubio? Maybe public opinion will be swayed toward picking Thabeet at 2 and the Grizzlies, who are NOT known as good evaluators of talent, will take him...or they might be more willing to trade one spot down for something like our two first round picks and an expiring contract...sounds like a typical Grizzlies trade...
explain why Thabeet is "high character" . . .
My initial mock draft goes as follows:
1. LA Clippers: Blake Griffin
2. Memphis: Ricky Rubio
3. Oklahoma City: James Harden
4. Sacramento: Brandon Jennings
5. Washington: Hasheem Thabeet
6. Minnesota: Jrue Holiday
7. Golden State: Tyreke Evans
8. New York: Stephen Curry
9. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan
10. Milwaukee: Jordan Hill
11. New Jersey: DeJuan Blair
12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson
13. Indiana: Jonny Flynn/?
14. Phoenix: Jonny Flynn/?
Kev :Royce, Joe, and others:
Does anyone think that Presti will pick Thabeet? Knowing what you know about both men???
If you put it that way Yes and I say that because Presti is looking for high character guys that have a defensive mentality. Not saying I want him, but just answering a question.
Royce, Joe, and others:
Does anyone think that Presti will pick Thabeet? Knowing what you know about both men???
@Daniel
Thabeet is no better than Shawn Bradley . . .