Trade talk, a grain of salt, and a stupid poll

@Crow
Good stuff, Crow. The team has a lot of work, on top of expected improvement from young guys, before they can think about playoffs or racking up the wins. We have to really hope that Thabo or Weaver can grow into the defensive shooter role (one at the very least), our team defense as a whole needs to tighten up, and our decision making at the offensive end leaves much to be desired.

On second take (a common practice for worse or better)
I see that by position OKC give up the 2nd least 3 ptrs to PFs and the 7th lowest 3 pt FG% too. but they give up a high FG% overall so they must be getting hurt inside. At PG and SG they are a bit better than average defensing the 3 but again get hurt elsewhere, presumably inside. SF gets hurt inside and out. Maybe not mid-range where long arms may help.

Good comments and questions Keith.

It is hard to stay away from here because this place in generally doing the exchange of basketball talk well.

Keith: "First, are we defending the line well or do opposing teams feel they can shred our interior defense, and so don’t bother with the outside shot?"

It may be both or mainly the latter. But you were right to draw attention to the latter explanation as teams got more inside shots against the Thunder than anyone else. 38%. http://www.82games.com/0809/FDTEAM11.HTM
The inside FG% was about average but those are high value shots that produce scoreboard edge quickly.

"Second, who are the main players in keeping opponents’ 3-pt% down?"

Don't immediately know the answer to that. 82games isn't giving that away for free. Would have to study the boxscores.

"I’m all for the defensive 3-pt specialists, they just seem harder to find than one might expect."

Yeah. The classical cases are Battier and Bowen but those top guys are few. Using a looser definition there are probably an average 1.5- 2 a team with the best teams often having more. The way to expand this list is to have a great defensive coach and a strong defensive team where good shooters with good work ethics buy into the defensive effort. Ray Allen did in Boston and Rashard Lewis did in Orlando. Delonte West did in Cleveland. Courtney Lee has turned out to be this but unfortunately went at the 22nd pick.

@Crow
The mid-range shot is something we've harped on quite a bit I'd say. It says a lot about our offense that upon receiving a wide open pass, the majority of our players will step a few feet inside the three point line for no apparent reason. With our FG% being so low, I've often wondered why not just hoist up the 3 pointer. At worst, it's a miss, on a shot that probably would have been missed anyway. At best, it's 50% more points each make.

The fact that we were above average at guarding the three point line raises two questions that perhaps you could answer. First, are we defending the line well (12 lowest 3-pt% would agree), or do opposing teams feel they can shred our interior defense, and so don't bother with the outside shot? Second, who are the main players in keeping opponents' 3-pt% down? Despite his defensive woes, Durant's reach and size would make him a great candidate to alter outside shots.

I'm all for the defensive 3-pt specialists, they just seem harder to find than one might expect. Guys who can shoot well are generally guys who either never had to work hard on defense in their careers, or guys who can't defend and have to compensate by being really good at shooting. On the other hand, most great defenders are guys who couldn't make much of an impact on offense, so had to work their tails off on defense. That's the problem with the value system of the NBA. If you can shoot, you'll get paid even if you can't do anything else. Why work on defense when you'll get paid better just continuing to work on your offense?

I can feel the love... I really can.

Posting again- because I forgot to say... OKC is slightly above average on percentage of insides shots. But being 3rd highest on mid-range shot attempts and dead last in mid-range FG% is way too high a price to pay for that.

But that is enough for now.

Thanks Joe, Keith, folks in general.

Joe, and those interested, here is a pretty thick Crow style (but not that long) stat mcnugget:

All four of the conference finalists are top 8 on defensive efficiency. The Lakers and Nuggets are below league average on 3 point makes (at 16th and 17th) while the Magic and Cavs make the #2 and 3 most. Compound that with the fact that the Lakers and Nuggets allowed the 4th and 7th most 3 pointers in regular season while the Magic and Cavs allowed the 2nd and 5th least and that might well be the deciding factor of the finals.

I like the eastern teams' stat mix better this far, though to be fair the western teams get inside more and that somewhat offsets. The Cavs are actually the most out of step on taking much more low FG% mid-range shots (13th most regular season, alongside a very low- 5th lowest- inside shot percentage) while Orlando and Denver are smartly lowest five and Lakers are 9th lowest on this. But any of them could actually take the title settle one quirky game at a time.

OKC actually does pretty good defending the 3. 10th least makes allowed. 12th lowest 3 pt FG% allowed. just need to make the 3 a lot more themselves (in my opinion- based on the stats) and continue to improve the D. A lot. After your star or 2 stars I think good teams these days would be wise to have a lot of guys who are both 3 pointers and good defenders. Has Presti picked any such supporting types who meet both criteria at once? Maybe Weaver. Needs more.

@ATR

That's very cool ATR (the apology). Even if it's not needed, it's a very mature and cool thing to just say, "hey, if I was wrong, I want to be the one to apologize".

Thanks again.

Hey everyone, I didn't know if my apology would get lost here, so I already posted one in the newer thread. But, I apologize to Nix and to anyone who felt my reaction was a little over the top. I know what Crow has dealt with to some degree on other forums and sympathize. Same s--t, different day.

Heck of a lot of fun to live in Denver and watch them play in these playoffs. It is a contradiction for me though as a fan of the Thunder and same conference. Even more interesting is the reactions I get when I wear a Nebraska hat on the CU campus!!

@Keith

Truer words are seldom spoken Keith. If it is spectacular it gets the hype, if it's just fundamentally sound and unexciting, save it for the internet nerds right?

That article about Shane Battier that made all the papers including the NYTimes was exactly to that point: a player that made the team better, seldom scoring more than 10 points.

@Crow
Thanks. It really brings up more questions than answers, but that is ultimately the problem with fans like us in the US trying to judge foreign players. There is so much different, both stylistically and philosophically, going on with European teams. It's hard to look at the numbers and say what they mean to the NBA game. It is compounded by the way the NBA is officiated and ultimately judged.

Can a player be great if he doesn't score 20 points per game? Can a player be transcendent if he can't single-handedly win games in the final minute? The Stern-NBA would have believe the answers to those questions are no. But, for someone who has watched basketball for a long time, someone who sees how teams are built and how they work as a collection of interlocking parts, the answers should be yes.

I'm forced to listen to an L.A. sports radio living here in Southern Oregon. It's all I can get. It is Fox sports radio with Chris Meyers, straight out of L.A.; I hate the Lakers, and the announcers are so biased it's not even funny.

But, I have to say, Denver is playing like the better team tonight, and also in game 2. It's no fluke. L.A. is just not that great. I think they may be the least consistent team of the 4 teams left in the playoffs. I love to watch them get schooled.

Keith... because you asked...

It is surprising in retrospect that Calderon was so low on assists early in his career. Not sure if it was situational- maybe playing some SG? He proved a fine passer in the NBA when given the lead passing role. But the shooter he showed he was in Europe was the shooter he showed he could be in the NBA. But as good as he looks on offense on the court and in the box-score his adjusted +/- has always been weak because of defense. I can't see Rubio being that much better an offensive coordinator in the NBA than Calderon is now though he probably starts out faster and closes rapidly. I don't think he'll be as good a shooter or in the end a bigger scorer either though I could be wrong if the don't touch the perimeter player penetration parade continues in the NBA. Maybe he will be better on defense but I have little basis for guessing on that.

Thanks ATR.

Nix, My comment was mostly my general take at the moment after a lot of history on several boards and not particularly about your comment. I know you were being honest and trying to be constructive. But it is a tough subject for me.

I have considered solo-blogging in the future instead of participating in forums but I originally gravitated toward the conversation. Take the lead, say even more? is that going to get read and appreciated more? I could indeed be more organized but as much as people criticize length and amount of stats if I blogged I'd end up doing even more. Not sure if that would be better.

But that is for me to figure out and not debate.

Back to basketball.

@ATR
Let's all calm down a little bit. No one was attacking anybody, he was just stating an opinion. I love reading Crow's stuff too, but I feel the same as Nix sometimes also. Crow is going to be Crow, and we are all ok with that.

I hope Crow knows that most of us really enjoy his input. Nix said the same thing.

Birdman is having a huge impact in the game. Wish we had somebody like that....

Nix,

You gotta back off Crow. Always a great poster and very considerate! Brings a great deal of insight and information that few are willing to look up or research. You don't feel like reading it - skip it. I always want to see Crow's posts and will always back it up. Lay off! Nobody needs that crap!!!

@Crow
Gotcha...

I was hoping you'd focus on the positive, but that's fine.

Like I said I think you should stay around because you have great insight. It's just difficult to converse for whatever reason.

@Crow
How would you compare and contrast Rubio and Calderon. You said Calderon was quite steady. How old was he before he entered the NBA? Also, what were his Europe to NBA comparisons? While he's one of the best pass-first PGs around, he's not a guy who can take over a game and push his team over a hump. He is spectacular in his consistency, but not particularly spectacular overall.

I hear you Nix but I am not really in the mood to talk about my style- again and again. It is frustrating both ways apparently though I find the objections overstated to my way of thinking. A few posts in a row? Still takes what anywhere from 1-3 minutes to read? Is that too much to say or read? I don't think so. I almost never talk about anybody else's style. I have just wanted to talk basketball not writing style. If I talk of limiting or quiting it is a lot about not wanting to have constantly have people talk about style. We all have one; live and let live I'd prefer. But alas...

@Crow
No one minds you posting here Crow...You just spurt out three long posts in a row so it's difficult to have a conversation with you.

You always say great stuff but it's tough to counter what you're saying when you post multiple posts like that. I bet you'd be great at writing blogs, but I feel like I'd have to write a blog back to you if I disagreed.

Maybe over information is the issue. We all like numbers, but say the point and if anyone disagrees that's when you bring in the numbers more in depth. I think you should stay around the blog because you have great insight.

By contrast Calderon was quite steady.

I didn't see your main post Nix til now. I agree with you that projecting international players is more tricky than usual. While I have more reservations about Rubio than most I don't claim to know enough to know for sure how it turns out. Despite my use of stats (since I haven't seen a lot of tape of him) you'd be wise to watch a ton of tape especially when he played the very best he has faced. Still the streaky shooting and the turnovers deserve consideration. And some athletes reach their talent potential early. The year to year development of Rubio is far from steady or all positive.

You add in Camby with this deal and I am absolutely all for it. I loveJeff Green dearly, but Griffin + an elite defender is good stuff.

Rubio has just one season of an A/TO above 2/1 and that was this season and just barely. Yeah assists are tougher there but it is probably easier to avoid turnovers there too compared to facing NBA defense I'd think. Could th eThunder add another high turnover rate guy and somehow get that under control? It seems challenging. I'd think you might do better with steady than flashy.

He drives the lane far more than Westbrook but will he be able to do that here and finish or gets fouls or even stay healthy? Rudy Fernandez drove to the rim pretty frequently in Europe but in the NBA it was cut in half.

(Hey Joe. I might stop by occasionally- til I can give it up totally.)

Between 15 and 18 Rubio's shooting statistics are so up and down it is pretty hard to gauge what will be normal- in a brand new environment. He has lows - for seasons- lower than Earl Watson and some highs too. But if you discount the lows you might want to discount his best ever 3 point season this season. Or not, depending on what you believe will happen here against the best in the world.

In the Olympics Rubio averaged 4.5 pts 4 rebs 3 assists 2 turnovers in 18.5 minutes. That translates to about 12 pts 10 rebound 8 assists 5 turnovers per 48. He shot 35% overall and 17% from 3. interesting but not great though I guess he made a few plays that some people liked.

Westbrook in the NBA was 21 pts 7 rebs 8 assists per 48 with better shooting.

Apples and oranges comparison- with Rubio in Olympics facing easier competition in all but 1-2 games.

This article http://www.hoopsdaily.com/content/player-projection-ricky-rubio
attempts to project Rubio in the NBA. It is a pretty simple system and I wouldn't call it proven. I'd say it tends to be optimistic. It expects Rubio to give 10 pts 4 rebs 7 assists if he plays 36 minutes a game and that he'll shoot 45% overall and 25% from 3 pt. Is that worth a #3 pick?

It is a gamble anytime but with Rubio probably more than usual.

One thing not mentioned is that certain stats are kept differently in Europe than here. Assists are considerably more difficult to get credit for in Europe. A player getting credit for 6-8 assists in Europe is more similar to a player getting 10-12 in the NBA. The NBA actually changed its rule a while ago about how an assist was tallied in order to make them easier to get. Rubio is a great creator with incredible vision. He also hits open shots (which aren't as plentiful for him, being the primary passer/creator). And, as mentioned already, stats have to be tempered a great deal more due to minutes played and system. European teams aren't going to have anyone who puts up huge numbers individually.

@MartzMimic
They get a much hyped, dynamic, SPANISH SPEAKING point guard to market in the LA area. I'm guessing that Rubio would be a much larger PR boon for the Clipps than Griffin could ever be.

We've talked about it from a basketball standpoint, but I wondered something on the business side, which I guess also affects the on-the-court stuff: Would a trade that sent Green to LAC for Griffin be a wise business move? Not because of the hometown connection, but by spacing out the upcoming contracts. Any ideas?

@p
I do agree he'll have to develop, but I wouldn't be surprised by 15pt 7ass 4rb from him rookie year.

He's 18...

i think rubio's advantage (& the reason for his high position) is his quote-unquote feel for the game ... not a comparison, but people generally consider chris paul the best point in the league .. i personally think its very difficult to definitively say paul is better than at least 2 or 3 other guys .. but his "feel" is what makes people most comfortable with him ..
rubio doesn't seem to wow you with anything besides great vision & an uncanny knack to make passes ..

take in account the "look/star-quality", the fact that he's played against high-caliber competition & one can understand the fascination with him.

but i think he is at least a few years from being impactful in the league..

It's always wise to consider Euroleague players generally don't play more then 25 minute. So that basically means you 2x there average to around a 40min a game player and look at their stats there. That means Ricky averaged 12 assists in 44min a game this year. Not saying he'd play 44min, but obviously an 18 year old averaging those kind of numbers in a league more competitive then the NCAA is pretty great.

Well.....Green would be fantastic backing up Randolph and the clips suddenly have sum serious depth in the frontcourt that can actually shoot the deep ball.

Maybe they move Gordon to the 1 spot and Thorton to the 2 spot.....heck I really don't matter to Thunder fans what they do with Thorton as long as we get Blake!

@Crow
I agree with you that we don't have enough info on him...but I will say that Euroball is completely different from the NBA

these are Jose Calderon's stats from his best year...that came when he was 24: (Scroll down to Accumulated)
http://217.13.116.51/plantillas/jugador.jsp?id=BDG&temporada=E04

No one can deny Jose Calderon's ability

These are Rubio's stats from this year age 18:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ricky-Rubio-1155/

He averages better in Points, Assists, 3pt FG%, Rebounds, & Steals.

I guess my point is that you can't really tell by judging international player's stats. It is a different league and it's played a completely different way.

I don't think a ton of GM's would be so high on him if he wasn't worth it.

All we can do is judge his stats by other international players stats. I picked the best true pt guard I could think of (internationally) to compare his stats to and he definitely check out (obviously a player that actually played Euroball). Seeing as he played in a more difficult league then Calderon and started over him on the national team, I think he checks out stat wise.

Honestly though, I admit I know little about international basketball. Judging by GM's past mistakes (Yi, Darko, etc.) it's probably the hardest group of players to evaluate.

do the clips trade for a SF when they have al thornton?

Welcome Crow!

I've often wondered, like Kev mentioned, if we are being sold a pig in a poke with Rubio. All we see is highlights, which of course are phenomenal.

Tell me again, what were his stats in the Olympics in 08? Seems to me they were sort of underwhelming.

@Steve H

Well, we disagree...that's ok. It's really all speculation right now. We will never know 1/10th of the conversations that Presti and his guys have or don't have regarding a plethora of players and scenarios.

@Joe
I truly respect your work here crunching numbers Joe, but I think this post is built on several erroneous statements/assumptions/arguments. You start by questioning the assumption that the Thunder are exploring trade scenarios that land them Blake Griffin. As assumptions go, that one looks pretty damn solid. When you look at our team needs, what Blake brings to the table, and where he is from, it is impossible not to conclude that Presti would like to see him in Thunder blue- AND that he would be willing to offer SOMETHING of value to get him. You don't need a reliable source to know that Presti would have to include a high-quality player in a trade offer to make the thing work- and Green fills the bill for a variety of reasons (fills need on Clipps roster at SF/Thunder already have SF position covered). The argument that Presti wouldn't "mortgage the Thunder's future" because Griffin could get hurt seems pretty hollow to me as well, and portrays Presti as ultra conservative to the point of timidity. ANY player could get hurt at ANY time. Under this reasoning, ANY trade in which we give up a valuable assett is too risky to be made. Unless there is a Dr.'s report somewhere to the contrary, you have to assume the best player in the draft, who is coming off of an injury free college season, is in fact healthy. No, I don't think Presti is willing to over-pay for players. Nor does he seem to be afraid to pull the trigger if a trade looks beneficial. As for Baron Davis' contract, I also don't see the Clipper's having any trouble unloading him if they are just looking to make room for Rubio and be rid of his salary. BD is a former all-star pointguard in a league with lots o' teams out there in need of a floor leader. G-State surely wants him back. Sacramento has to want him. Hell, even the Lakers might look to pick him up if they don't win rings this year. They don't have to find a "sucker"- just answering their phone when it rings should do the trick. Earl Watson? As far as I can tell, we started last season with high hopes for him, and didn't consider trying to move him till mid-season. Being stuck with a 6.5 mill contract for a whole half a season doesn't tell me much about how hard it is to move personel in this league. I'll be suprised if Watson is still on our roster come August 1st.

thanks for the info - this is why in my list of preferred guys I put Rubio 4th - why?? I have never seen him play. I don't like judging guys off highlight tape - those things only amplify snapshots, they don't show the players' weaknesses. My next question would be if he's so great, why is he splitting time with an American also-ran??

Rubio surely played a role in good team shooting but to be fair you'd have to ask how much credit his teammates should get for shooting well and rewarding his pass with an assist and how much credit the coach should get. For OKC the shooting this past season was overall very weak. Would Rubio affect that a lot, a little or in-between? Could be any of the 3.

I think Rubio could considered be a drive and kick guy. His possible main Thunder teammates: Westbrook- most comfortable playing with the ball, creating on his own; Durant can do almost anything but prefers to create on his own; Green prefers to create on his own; Kristic could certainly benefit from drive & kick. Would the perimeter guys learn to benefit from another drive & kick guy? Would the defense sag the middle a lot / even more and as effectively or would Rubio lead to better outside shooting and make defense shakier, more stretched and less effective? I don't know. Probably never find out. But I don't think it would be a surefire success story if it did happen.

For the top pick it seems to me there should by 3 criteria: ability to provide high-powered offense directly, ability to help improve team offensive efficiency (by creating better shots or reducing turnover or any othe rmeans) and ability to improve shot defense.

Any candidates with good potential on all 3? I don't think so. You could argue Rubio, Thasbeet, Harden, Hill could be good at 2. Same for Curry and Lawson.

Which criteria to emphasize? I can't say without discussing everything. And I won't right now.

For putting up with me for the most part, here is something that I looked up and didn't have anywhere else I wanted to put it. So you can have it if it is of interest. Probably not going to see this anywhere else. I haven't.

Rubio’s team for his regular season was 3rd in a league of 17 teams on offensive efficiency based on good shooting any way you slice it but was close to average on team assists, rebounds and defense. They finished 5th in standings. Rubio split the PG position with a 31 yr old American out of McNeese St who had a strong lower level college career but never got out of NBA training camp.

In Euroleague play they were a bit above average. They shot the 3 ball as much as any other team.

Don’t make too much of this but I thought it was somewhat interesting and maybe calls into question his upside to some degree or the ability of the other team to adjust to his game:

Rubio at 18 (but injured) vs Rubio at 15 for his regular season per pace adjusted minute now compared to then- rebounds down 25%, steals down about 15%, turnovers up a bit, 2 pt FG% virtually unchanged, getting to the line up a tiny bit, blocks down 60%, 3ptrs made up 20%, assists up 125%, fouls down 55%.

@Vince

you absolutely correct, I am glad I'm not Sam Presti because I don't want to make this decision.

Pennington :
I have to say, Jeff Green is my favorite player not named Kevin Durant on the team. But I would trade him, in a heart beat, for Blake Griffin. Basketball is about entertainment, and the fans want Blake Griffin. If this would significantly decrease the team’s chances of winning I would think twice, but this is at worst a lateral move. I would like to have Rubio. I would like to have Harden(and McGee). But I would love to have Blake Griffin. So would the rest of the 405

That's a legitimate point. But the point is you're not getting Griffin for Green. You're getting Griffin for Green and the #3 (possibly getting something back). The issue with any Griffin trade is that enough for the Clips is too much for us and any trade that keeps the core together isn't going to be enough for the Clips.

@Joe
You're a walking scouting report lol.

AT this point of his career, I am not a big Al Thornton fan. He can score for the Clippers, but from what I've seen, there is no defense. Of course, he really is playing fairly nicely for a #14 pick, but he seems a little shot happy for my tastes. But that's the way the Clippers roll lately.

I think on a good team he would be a backup.

They kind of went from one shot happy guy in Maggette, to another in Thornton. He is still pretty young, and with coaching and some hard work he can be a borderline all star, much like Maggette.

He's still young.

WORD!

I have to say, Jeff Green is my favorite player not named Kevin Durant on the team. But I would trade him, in a heart beat, for Blake Griffin. Basketball is about entertainment, and the fans want Blake Griffin. If this would significantly decrease the team's chances of winning I would think twice, but this is at worst a lateral move. I would like to have Rubio. I would like to have Harden(and McGee). But I would love to have Blake Griffin. So would the rest of the 405

Well they are the Clippers......lol

If you think the Clips are gonna trade Thorton.... that's NOT gonna happen!