It’s April 7th 2009 at the Ford Center. There’s a seemingly meaningless game in the house, yet it’s not so meaningless. On one side of the ball there is the Oklahoma City Thunder, at the time a 21 win team with no post season prospects, and on the other the San Antonio Spurs with their 49 wins in the bag, playing for playoff seeding. Even more, the Thunder had managed to eek out two wins against the Spurs in the previous 2 1/2 weeks or so. The Thunder really believe they can win, the Spurs are both pissed and determined to step on this bug that keeps swarming them at a time when they’re trying to close out the season with some winning mojo.
The Thunder actually take a lead into half time at 51-50, showing some spunk and confidence. In the third, both teams make runs. First OKC goes on an 11-5 swing, followed by the Spurs and a 12-3 run of their own. Late in the fourth, the Thunder lose ground, but make a little push and get the game close, down 89-85 with 2:31 left. Coach Popovich calls a timeout and both teams plan their strategy; the Thunder need some scoring and they need to hold the line defensively.
It doesn’t happen. The Thunder manage 3 made free throws and a meaningless 2 point jumper by Westbrook with the game clock expiring. In that final 2:31 the Thunder were 1-5 from the field. The shots were there but they weren’t falling. It was a winnable game that we didn’t win.
In that last 2:31 Coach Brooks used a lineup of Durant, Green, Krstic, Westbrook and Livingston, with Thabo subbing in for Livingston in the final :25 for defense (the Spurs went with Parker, Duncan, Finley, Udoka and Drew Gooden). Durant and Green have established themselves as effective three point shooters and are offensive weapons suited to this situation. Krstic is the best we have in the middle with a balance of offense/defense. Westbrook, Livingston and Thabo are the weak links here when we needed scoring punch and quick offense.
- Livingston is an average shooter at best, with a career .231 shooting percentage from three.
- Thabo also is a lightweight shooter with career marks of .427 from the field and .313 from three.
- Westbrook stroke looks good, but better shot selection and experience are needed before he becomes a potent weapon. He’s at .398 from the field and .271 from three.
A situation just like this is why I am so excited about our new Draft picks, and why I give Presti an A for a draft grade. In that last 2:31 there were repeated ball stops for timeouts and free throws. Brooks looks down his bench and wonders where he can find somebody to hit shots. Coach Pop knows he has to keep an eye on the big three for the Thunder, but is probably less concerned with being burned by Thabo from deep, or Livingston.
Now, consider Brook’s options. He can sub offense for defense on the ball stops and actually put out a high powered offensive five. I’m thinking a lineup of Harden, Vaden, Durant, Green and Krstic can make shots. Who is Pop going to cheat off of? How can he defend all five spots when the ball begins to swing around the perimeter? Good luck with that. If anybody was paying attention in the Orlando/Cleveland series you know what I’m talking about. Dwight Howard in the middle being guarded by Ilgauskus and 4 deadly shooters around the perimeter, swinging the ball and setting screens and double screens. I think Harden is a good enough handle that he can be the primary ball handler in that hypothetical lineup.
And don’t count out Vaden. He is an absolute gunner; an assassin. He shoots the three like few others in the nation. He’s one of only three other players in the NCAA’s that attempted 300 or more 3 pointers last season, the other two were Steph Curry and Lester Hudson; and he’s one of only a handful that made over 100 of them. In 07-08 Steph Curry and Vaden were 1 and 2 in both three pointers made and attempted, and Vaden shot a very nice 40% from beyond the arc.
Vaden doesn’t pass the ball much, or rebound. Draftexpress says he has some ability defensively, but let’s face it, on a team that didn’t shoot or hit the deep ball much, last actually, Vaden’s skill is a needed commodity.
Ricky Rubio has great upside, but if we want to win games now and begin to build confidence and a winning swagger, the tools that Harden and Vaden bring to the roster are going to prove more helpful in the upcoming season.
on the for reals.
@ all
I have to say that I'm real excited about next season and the up coming summer league. I think that even if Harden ends up just being a quality bench guy (worst case scenario IMO), he will add a lot to this team. One of the things that happened to the Thunder a lot last year was that other teams would just run their benches at them in heavy rotation, exploiting their lack of depth and wearing the Thunder down.
This year, with at least five reasonably good guards: Westbrook, Livingston, Weaver, Thabo and Harden and maybe Mason or Vaden (three of which can play a little SF) the Thunder should not have that problem.
And when the Thunder run into superior teams and/or teams without depth, they will be able to substitute energy for talent by doing the same thing to them: rapid rotation.
The Thunder now have the available depth to offer different looks without sacrificing talent on the floor. And when Durant is resting, they can slide in three guards, showing all shooters a la Weaver, Harden, Vaden, Green and Kirstic, or some other guard combo, or they can go big by sliding Green over to the 3, keeping Thabo and Westbrook at 1 and 2, and adding Collison or Mullens in with Kirstic (which created problems for teams last year. That big Kirstic, Collison, Green, Weaver, Westbrook combo did some serious damage when Durant was injured last year. If they could play Durant at the 2 for short spurts then they could create serious match up problems for people.
The addition of Harden will really give the team some flexibility. If Vaden and/or Mullens pans out, then we have REAL depth. If Mullens flops, the the team has some guard talent and expiring contracts to spare to make a nice trade if they can't get the FA they want.
Things are looking up. Here's to 30+ games next year, maybe more.
@K
I personally hope Weaver sticks around for a while. I think he has real potential. He did a surprisingly good job defending Kobe when they were in town the first time (though not as good as Thabo). I think my favorite play of the year was actually when weaver was defending Kobe. Kobe posted up about 12 feet out and was trying to muscle his way closer to the basket. Instead of pushing back (as per standard post defense), Weaver simply moved out of the way. Kobe fell right on his ars and got called for traveling. Loved it!
GAP :
I hope this link works.
http://s693.photobucket.com/albums/vv294/GAP28/
Works fine.
Great pics! I'm jealous - I never even saw Scott Brooks at all. Don't recall seeing Tramel either, I did see Baldwin. I thought about going up to Grant and initiating a conversion, but chickened out cuz I wasn't sure I'd be able to come up with any (non-dumb) to say. But Grant did a great job of emcee. I felt a bit sorry for him, because he must have been out in the sun longer than anyone else (and he didn't even have a hat on).
How come no pic with a Thunder girl? Oh wait, I think I know the answer - it may have something to do with who was taking those pics.
;)
I think Weaver is very likely to spend half of the season getting 30+ minutes in Tulsa. With the Thunder owning the team, and having their player development personnel down there, I imagine it will be something of an AAA club. Weaver was the beneficiary of the Thunder's lack of depth after Mason went down, I'm not sure he's proven he's ready for big minutes. And actually, I could also see Presti bringing back Mason on a veteran's minimum contract.
@Crow
"Probably always want at least one of Westbrook, Harden and Weaver on the court."
I think that's right. Thabo/Liv doesn't score much.
Ideally you trade stuff (junk and/ or good stuff) for a PG who you want to play, who becomes a part of the core.
With Minny giving Lawson away I would have outbid Denver.
That group of six as Joe noted could be considered 1 learning PG and 5 SG / wings. That isn't balance.
If they go Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Green-Krstic as they probably will they you can ask how goes out first? If it is Harden then you pretty much bring in what you need. If it is Westbrook then it will probably be Livingston. He only played a little but he was far better at SG than PG last season. And while I wish him the best he was never a good PG looking at team performance. Weaver still has basically no NBA PG experience. They may end up using Watson or needing another guy to take that backup PG job. Harden at point? Probably not in the plan, but they need somebody to be able to fill 10-15 minutes there per night and give more when needed.
The norm is for rotations to be based on 4 guards. A few top teams go to 5. If the Thunder use a 6 guard rotation that is a bit unusual and you'd have to ask it this good, necessary and why is it necessary.
My word choice earlier might not have the best and I can see how folks might disagree or agree.
Joe's scenario of Harden-Vaden would appear to represent a heavy tilt toward shooters. Westbrook-Sefolosha was pretty close to the opposite on that. If Presti-Brooks truly went heavy with Harden-Vaden or even in the last 5 minutes a game that would suggest the previous pairing was deficient in a key area of guard play, namely outside shooting. That is mainly what I meant about past decision=making but maybe Presti realized that Thabo was just a part not necessarily the starter.I got the impression when he was added it was to be a starter but I can't see that happening now.
But between these 6 guys there are 15 combos.
Try 'em, find what works.
Probably always want at least one of Westbrook, Harden and Weaver on the court. And 2 or 3 at a time probably would do well.
Brooks with have to orchestrate the insertions of the other 3 to the right times.
They are different. Presti has given Brooks a tool bag.
But whether this set is average or can get above average we'll have to see.
@Joe
Heck I wish....i'm 28yrs old that's 4yrs older than Sam Young and you see what happend to him on draft night.....lol
I would also say that on a second round pick you take a flier on someone and let them show what they can do in training camp. If they can beat someone out, then they deserve a contract. I think that Weaver and Sefolosha overlap somewhat. If Darth can bring something else to the table that the others can't that is great. If not he can show what he can do in the D league. Not much risk. Same with Mullens. If he can beat someone out great. If not try to develop him for a couple of years on the cheap. Survival of the fittest
Yeah, I don't think Vaden gets many consistent minutes next year unless Harden gets hurt. Harden and Vaden are the only "true" shooting guards on the roster. Weaver and Liv and Thabo are combo guards/forwards (or in Liv's case a combo point guard). Westbrook is a combo learning to play the 1.
I think Weaver's long term position will be as a backup 1, 2 and occasional 3. I think he will definitely be our 3rd or emergency point guard.
I think Atkins will be bought out, which can happen for 760k if you can't unload him this summer. I think Earl will be and has been shopped. I don't see any scenario where some player gets hurt and a contender needs a PG for the stretch run, like Rafer Alston was for Orlando, with his expiring contract.
I don't see Mason coming back. And I think Wilkins will rot on the pine or be traded in this expiring contract year.
I also think one or two guys will catch Presti's eyes in Summer league or as free agent invitees to camp. Last year we had John Lucas, Derrick Byars and some big 7 footer from the D-league and none of them made it, but that is how Wilkins got his shot 5 years ago.
I think in the end, our Center rotation will be Krstic, Mullins and Devon Hardin, with one of the latter two or both alternating between minutes in Tulsa. Unless of course Presti can get ahold of the Polish hammer. I think Vaden will get some minutes in Tulsa too.
@GAP
Hey Gap, your about as tall as Scotty, guess you can NBA point guard. :O)
@MartzMimic
Every decision, win, or lose should say something about past decisions. Look at Portland. They didn't know that Oden was going to be hurt and mediocre, but it still makes it a bad decision. If the team excels with a Harden-Vaden (again unlikely since Vaden probably won't play much) combo, then it makes me question even more Westbrook being the PG.
As you said, you make the best decisions at the time with the best information available. But that doesn't somehow make your decisions not reproachable. Perhaps it means you need to change the way you make decisions or gather information. Or perhaps it means you are right on.
I would disagree about calling into question past decisions. You have to make the best decisions at the time with the best information that's available. The converse would be that if the rookies don't work out, it would validate Presti's decisions prior to the draft.
What it simply says is that some players are better than others, at least for this team at this time.
I hope this link works.
http://s693.photobucket.com/albums/vv294/GAP28/
@Vince
I think if they play Harden-Vaden for extended minutes, it will certainly call into questions some previous decisions. However, playing them together for specific situations (down by three, need a scoring punch, maybe against undersized back-court) shouldn't mean much. Every coach should utilize his players to the best of their abilities in the best situations. Personally I don't see Vaden playing much next year, with Weaver working on his outside shot and becoming a consistent threat off the bench (with better defense than Vaden).
Crow :
If they play Harden-Vaden much it would call into question the goodness of fit of earlier decisions taking Livingston and Sefolosha and the long-term wisdom of Westbrook.
Livingston was a gamble signing that cost less than $2M. Huge upside, very little risk. Sefolosha is a glue guy who can defend 4 spots, who we got for a pick used to take Taj Gibson, who few project as an NBA starter (certainly not anytime soon). You can't argue with either move.
Vaden is not projected to play much next year, if at all. He's not guaranteed a roster spot and may likely wind up in Tulsa. The minutes battle will likely come between Livingston and Weaver, with the loser getting a lot of DNP-CD's.
If they play Harden-Vaden much it would call into question the goodness of fit of earlier decisions taking Livingston and Sefolosha and the long-term wisdom of Westbrook.
If.
These guys provide varying mixes of outside shooting, penetration, ball distribution and defense.
At all times you'd want to have at least one of each on the court and some quality in multiple.
Right now Westbrook is penetration, ball distribution and defense
Livingston is penetration, ball distribution
Sefolosha is defense
Weaver is perhaps harder to agree on the scoring of but could be said to be outside shooting, penetration, ball distribution and defense when he is playing well.
Harden probably will be outside shooting, penetration, ball distribution and defense
Vaden is outside shooting
Westbrook- Harden Or Weaver probably offers the most over all.
When Livingston plays PG you probably need Harden or Weaver still.
If Weaver plays the point you could go Sefolosha or Vaden for specific matchup needs.
Westbrook-Sefolosha doesn’t look good from an offensive standpoint but maybe you can get by if the front court is stacked with 2-3 scorers.
Harden-Vaden is better than Livingston Vaden by this method and better than maybe Westbrook- Vaden. Depends on Harden. He is what you want in a SG but he is not a 100% sure thing in my mind. On his outside shot elevation, defense and how much his passing translates over to NBA. On th elatter it didn't with Green really.
Watson Atkins Wilkins. You want to clear at least 1-2 of those spots next season. By 2010-11 of course they are all gone for sure. Probably by 2010 trade deadline by one means or another (waiver).
Westbrook, Livingston, Harden, Sefolosha, Vaden, Weaver
between the guard spots and 15 minutes at SF backing up Durant they have at most about 111 minutes a game available.
Westbrook 30, Livingston 15, Harden 30, Sefolosha 20, Vaden 5, Weaver 10? That is 110. Push somebody up 5 or 10, gotta pull somebody down.
It is options but the pairings will matter a lot.
I don't know if Harden is a playmaker like Roy
or just got assists passing to 3 point shooters in college.
In 2 years probably only 4 remain. Hopefully the 4 that play together the best.
With the White-Vaden roommate ties on top of the other connections Presti is knitting together a group with ties to each other. That could help to some degree on the court and maybe in terms of free agent decisions down the road. Or it might not. It is the NBA, a business.
I'm pleased as punch to have James Harden on the team. I can hardly wait to see the summer league games.
You know, Byron Mullens seems like a sharp kid. Makes me wanna pull for him. I hope he learns quick.
Ok last one, I must be going Vaden crazy,but here's a real nice character story on him that just makes u like him more and more.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/10656061/1
More on Vaden during his training for the draft.
http://www.al.com/uabbasketball/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/124583144232960.xml&coll=2
I guess all news can't be good news.
http://www.al.com/uabbasketball/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/1224058606257490.xml&coll=2
@Keith
Right on.
A lot was made of how poorly this team did in close games (statistically coin flips). Hollinger and others said how this team should have had anywhere from 7-10 more wins just from those games. One thing that I think is overlooked is how not close they really were. Just because the final score reads "Team X wins by 4" doesn't mean it was a two possession game. We would go on runs against teams' scrubs or lose big leads at the end.
As useful as Vaden might be in specific situations, I'm glad for Harden. We need someone who can eat up 30 solid minutes at SG. Someone who won't be a liability on either end of the floor. Someone who can actually pose a threat to score points AND keep his man in check. No more clogging the lane because all the PGs and SGs can't shoot.
On a side note, while I don't expect to see Vaden much, can we please please PLEASE not do the Dunleavy/Every dumb coach in the league thing where we don't play him all game, then force him to hit a deep 3 in crunch time? I get that shooters should be able to shoot, but there is a difference between having a shooter who is ready and a shooter who is colder than ice off the bench.
Nice lil story on Vaden by Mike Baldwin from da oklahoman.
http://www.newsok.com/robert-vaden-confident-of-his-chances-with-thunder/article/3381382?custom_click=lead_story_title
alright Joe, love the dramatic intro to your post...
"It was a dark and stormy night at the Ford Center. An epic battle between David and Goliath raged on as Thunder and Spurs traded licks. Now it was down to wire with only two minutes left. Popovich looks at the clock and tenses up. Brooks looks at the clock and wipes his brow. Scanning his bench, who would he send in to save the day? Little Timmy from the D League squirms in his chair - he knows he can make the shot, but will the coach trust him?..."
Heh. I can see the Hollywood movie in my head. Little Timmy hurls up the shot at the buzzer and it flies thru the air in super slow motion. Up and up and up and up then finally down, down, down.... swish. The crowd erupts. Players jump up and down and hug with wild excitement. The symphonic music bursts in with a rousing crescendo as the camera zooms in on Little Timmy's face, smiling and a tear of joy rolling down.
Except... we didn't get the Hollywood ending. You're right Joe. We lost a number of games last season in the final minutes for lack of a reliable shooting option. Not a few games, a *bunch* of them. Which is why I think we may see quite an increase in the win/loss stat next season.
slight elaboration on Livingston - he's probably the best midrane shooter we have (DJ White is up there as well) . . .
Depending on Vaden's defense, you could go with the Harden/Vaden backcourt with backups elsewhere for short periods when the offense would stagnate last season, like the middle of the second quarter right before the regulars came back in.
I like the addition of Vaden. Every team needs a three-point specialist.
Love the fact that Vaden can create his own shot too. And that above lineup with Harden,Vaden,Durant,Green,and Kristic would be just like putting gas on the nets and lighting them on fire.