Coming into a draft, there’s so much hope. Hope to land the next big thing. Hope to fill a major need. Hope to find that diamond in the rough. Hope that this player can turn it all around or maybe make a good thing better.
Every team has their picks and every team has the highest of hopes for the guy they take. But the inevitable happens every year. Players bust.
They don’t live up to their potential. They never contribute. They don’t find the success that they were supposed to. Like Ricky Barnes at Bethpage, they just fold.
The thing is, everybody has different definitions for bust. Maybe it’s a guy that was taken in the top 10 and never averaged more than 20 minutes a game in his NBA career (Kwame Brown) Maybe it’s a guy that came into the league with a ton of hype, had a fairly productive career but yet didn’t live up to the expectations placed on him (Joe Smith). Maybe it’s an international player that never makes it over the United States (Yotam Halperin, among many). Maybe it’s a talented guy that gets plagued by injuries and can’t produce (Michael Olowokandi). Or maybe even it’s just a nice college player taken in the late first round that never makes any kind contribution. It all just depends on how you look at the player.
Obviously, the highly regarded and highly drafted players that bust are the most visible. Those disappointments are unavoidably going to come up around this time of year. The Darko’s, the Robert Swift’s, the Michael Olowokandi’s. A guy like Andrea Bargnani is a nice NBA player but since he was the top pick in the 2006 draft, he could potentially be tagged as a bust. The expectations on the No. 1 overall guy are higher than anybody else. Really that’s true for any top five pick. They are supposed to be game changers. Guys that may need some grooming, but will surely have a positive impact on the team they are on.
One thing to remember is you have to stay relative with each pick. Maybe a guy averaged six points, four rebounds and 16 minutes a game for his NBA career. Bust right? But maybe he was taken with the 18th of the first round and is set to play behind an established star for 10 years, does his job and plays great minutes off the bench. But he does his job and does it well. He’s no bust. He was just a piece to the puzzle.
Some guys like Sam Bowie are forever a huge flop because of their unfortunate circumstances. Bowie battled injuries his entire career and had the misfortune of some guy named Michael Jordan behind picked one slot behind him. People forget that Hakeem Olajuwon was taken No. 1 overall in that 1984 draft. But he’s no flop because you know, he’s a Hall of Fame player. But he also wasn’t Michael Jordan. Bowie goes down as the ultimate draft failure not because of what his career didn’t amount to, but because of who Portland could’ve taken.
That same situation is staring Portland in the face again with Greg Oden. Maybe Oden is a decent player and produces fairly well a la Bargnani, but if Kevin Durant goes on to superstardom, Oden is a major bust because he was taken in front of Durant. Don’t you think we’d be talking about what a major bust Kenyon Martin was if say, LeBron James was taken behind him? But since really nobody of value came from that draft, it’s almost like Martin was validated as the top pick. Probably the best player out of the 2006 draft is Brandon Roy. He was taken sixth. If he went right behind Bargnani, don’t you think we might be talking a little more about Bargnani’s busty-ness. Kind of a funny thing.
Come Friday morning every team and every fan of that team will have a a new player on their roster. And while they may not agree with the pick, most everyone will be excited and have high hopes for it. But the reality is, only five or six of these guys will probably be big-time contributors. Maybe two or three will be All-Stars. In five years, what guys will we be looking at and laughing that they went in the top 10? Sure there’s tell-tale signs and things we could peg, but you’ve also got the can’t-miss players. The guys that there’s no way they’ll bust. But it happens. Even though people can scout, do tons of homework, interview players and whatever else, in the end some of it comes down to luck. You can’t really know how a player will pan out. Right now, we all say Blake Griffin is a lock for stardom. It’s a no-brainer. But in four or five years, will we be laughing at the fact he went in front of Jordan Hill? It may sound crazy now, but it’s entirely possible.
It’s too early to tell with last year’s draft. We’re still waiting for some of these guys to pan out, to find their spot on a team and to contribute how they will. But the flops of the 2007 draft are beginning to take shape. Yi Jianlian, Greg Oden, Morris Almond, Acie Law, Julian Wright - all guys with solid resumes and reasons to be successful. But all guys that have definitely not lived up to expectation. Someone like Acie Law was a great leader in college, a big shot taker and maker, an excellent point guard with great passing skills and a top-notch defender. But the most he’s done in two seasons in the league is ride the pine and watch Mike Bibby lead the team to the playoffs twice. Now it’s not all over for a guy like Law, but all signs point to bust right now.
The thing is, the reason some of those guys could be “busts” is because of the expectations we had for them out of college. Corey Brewer was an excellent college player and he was taken in the top 10 of the draft. He’s been a nice player, but some expected him to be an absolute stud. And since he hasn’t panned out that way, he could be considered a bust. That’s not necessarily fair because it’s not his fault he was taken in the top 10 and was labeled the way he was. He’s just a good player that happened to be drafted ahead of 50 other guys. Doesn’t mean he’s totally a bust.
But right now, as we sit here looking at this draft class, you don’t see guys necessarily for potential busts. You see all the upside and potential a guy could have. But in just two years we may be going, “What were the Warriors thinking taking Stephen Curry so high? The most he’s played is eight minutes in two seasons.” But there really weren’t that many warning signs to see it coming. Just like Acie Law. Some guys show all the signs (*cough* Hasheem Thabeet *cough*). But in the end, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will. Will we be laughing about Ricky Rubio? Pointing at DeMar DeRozan? Could James Harden be the next draft bust poster child? We don’t know now, but we will in a few years.
Joe took a look into this year’s class, hunting for potential busters. Now don’t be mistaken, this isn’t a list predicting busts. He’s not saying these players will bust. It’s simply trying to dip into that hindsight before the fact. It’s positives and negatives of each players and the offset presented a bust potential score. The more stars, the more ticks on your resume and the more reason to bust. But also realize that sometimes the guys with the most bust potential have the most upside. A guy like Dwight Howard was ripe with flop potential, but he also had a ton of actual untapped potential, which he obviously found. So just because someone gets four or five stars doesn’t mean it’s all over for the guy. It’s really just so Joe can say ‘I told you so’ three years from now if he’s right.
Blake Griffin * – Will likely play for the Clippers.
Ricky Rubio ***** – Contract/buyout issues, poor shooter, weird agent. Hasn’t or won’t work out for anybody. Potential?
James Harden * – Poor showing in the tourney. (Even though he didn’t score well in the tourney, he was the leading rebounder with 13, 2nd assist guy with 8 and leader in steals with 4 in the two games, and only shot 18 times.) A do it all guy.
Steph Curry ** – Not a true point, NBA defense, not as quick as other combo guards. Handled a huge load for team (38% of possessions) 8th in nation in assist rate; good thief.
Hasheem Thabeet ***** – Three in the key, soft, zero offense. Questionable work ethic. Doesn’t get back consistently. Didn’t get measured. Didn’t test at the combine. His workout schedule has been shrouded in secrecy. History of African 7-footers.
Jordan Hill *** – Has shown zero ability to defend. Looks like Chris Wilcox. Benefiting from weak draft. Dead last at combine in Agility. Poor free throw shooting. Doesn’t get to the line. Good rebounder.
Demar DeRozan **** – Where’s the all-world athleticism? Hasn’t shot the three. Hype. Not dominant in college. Isn’t in the top 25 in any statistic. Poor free throw shooter. Short for the small forward position. Not good enough shooter for the shooting guard position. Mid-range game a plus.
Brandon Jennings *** – Immaturity. Delusions of grandeur/cockiness. Didn’t get measured. Hasn’t played well in Europe. Hasn’t found his shot. Lack of strength. Creativity. Good thief. Doesn’t turn it over much. Very, very quick.
DeJuan Blair *** – Knee issues. Undersized. No face up game. Poor free throw shooter. Long arms. Explosive. Strong. Best offensive rebounder in NCAA in eight years. Great overall rebounder. Strong finisher. Very efficient offensively. Toned up. Wowing scouts in workouts. Warrior mentality.
Jonny Flynn ** – Size. Hasn’t hit the three. Shaky jump shot. Turnovers. Defense. Gets to the rim. Gets to the line.
Tyreke Evans ** – Not a point guard. Turns it over. Shoots a lot. Inability to hit the three. Wowing them in workouts. Projects as an all around shooting guard. Good size and athleticism.
Ty Lawson * – Toe problem. Short body, short arms. Great scoring efficiency. Most pro-ready point guard on the board.
Jrue Holiday **** – Never did anything in college. Immaturity. Hype. Westbrook factor. Not impressing in workouts.
Earl Clark *** - Tweener forward. Turnover prone. Inefficient scorer. I’m not sure what he’s good at.
Eric Maynor *** – Good scorer and assist guy. A bit shaky with turns. Size? Defense? Small college.
B.J. Mullens **** – Never did anything in college. Seven feet of stiff stigma. Athletic. Will likely go to a decent team and have time to mature and gain skill and experience.
Austin Daye **** - Super skinny (15-20 pounds lighter than KD). Doesn’t get to the line. Foul prone. Who can he guard? Doesn’t like contact. Got punk’d by Omri Casspi. Can block some shots and rebound defensively. Not a strong finisher. Good 3-point shooting.
Chase Budinger *** – Seems uninterested. Can he defend? Short arms. Good shooter. Good athlete. Looks like Luke Walton’s clone.
James Johnson *** – Not good free throw shooter or 3-point shooter. Fairly efficient scorer.
Gerald Henderson *** - Nothing special about this guy. Two-point FGA is lowest among shooting guards. Not exceptional at the three. Why is he in the first round? A bit short for NBA shooting guard.
Jeff Teague *** – Small for shooting guard, can’t play point guard. Great scorer.
Josh Heytvelt *** – Not a strong rebounder. Likes to play on the perimeter. Off court issues in the past.
Terrrance Williams ** – Doesn’t shoot well. Great size for shooting guard. Great passer.
Omri Casspi ** – Skinny. Scrappy. Good shooter.
Wayne Ellington *** – Poor workouts. Can’t create his own offense. Good shooter from anywhere. Winner. Played in pro style program.
Jeff Pendergraph * – Very basic offensive moves. The most efficient big man in the country. Knows his limitations. A hustler and worker.
Tyler Hansbrough ** – Can he score in the NBA? Seems like a role player.
Taj Gibson **** – Skinny. Blocks shots and rebounds. Long arms. Skinny.
Darren Collison *** – Small. Decent scoring potential. Leadership.
Patty Mills ****- 40% on his two-point FGA’s, doesn’t rebound, not a strong assist guy. Shot selection. Doesn’t get to the line. Is he a point guard?
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@Royce
That's a pretty good article, basically says oden will probably be better than he looked as a rookie. Do i think durant will stuff the stat sheet more? Yes. Is Oden on a better team and will win more? Yes. Hard to say how this will play out. At least you have presti.
@Dawg
Is that little article like the battle flag for Portland fans?
Look, I didn't saw Oden WAS a bust. I was making the point that a guy can have a nice career but be considered a flop because of the guy drafted behind him. Try reading for comprehension. It's fun. And if you deny Durant's skill, well, then you're clearly looking some colored glasses.
www.lolsports.com/nba/oden
Just cause you can't take the facts. Have fun being in the lottery for years to come Memphis, oops I mean OKC.
[Post removed due to douchebaggery]
"I think you are missing the boat on Thabeet. He was by far the most dominant defensive player in the nation last year. Not sure how you could characterize his defense as “soft” in any way."
Does anyone realize that Connecticut's whole defense is predicated on getting blocks? That they sacrifice to funnel players to their shot-blockers? That in the last 6 years, they have ranked 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, and 3 in block%? Yes, they were not first last year--for the first time in over 5 years. THAT IS WHY THABEET HAS SO MANY BLOCKS! He is a SYSTEM player in the blocks department.
I don't know how many people realize that... Connecticut forces no turnovers (always in the 330s nationally) in order to get blocks. Thabeet was the perfect match for the system.
It doesn't happen that way in the pros!
people also make a big deal about him improving in the last two years - if you have limited experience its alot easier to improve. Take any middle school player that has only played a year or two. It's a safe bet to assume that ALL of them would improve markedly with a couple of years of good coaching. The guy barely knew the game as a freshman - of course he should improve - that doesn't mean he will continue to do so. In fact, Ive often read there is no time for real individual teaching and coaching in the NBA because of the long schedule.
Agree with Bernard. If scientists genetically engineered the perfect bust, out would saunter Thabeet. I'm starting to think I'm crazy because I've yet to read any mention of the fact Thabeet *took himself out of the game with only minutes remaining* in the Final Four against Mich St (I mean did this or did this not happen -- I'm starting to question myself) after he took a hard fall. He was supposedly the leader of his team, in the biggest game of the year, and he wasn't even hurt! He came back in (when the game was decided a few min later) and seemed fine. Merely frustrated and tired and didn't want to play any more, which describes his performance against any real competition. He didn't grow up playing or watching basketball, and doesn't care much about the sport; he'll take his rookie millions, probably swing one more contract to a delusional team, and that'll be that. I go in more depth on my stupid blog if anyone's interested, but one could really go on forever plumbing the depths of Thabeet's busty essence.
@Dave
Thabeet has one game-ready ability and that is shot-blocking. No one can question that. However everyone can question if the defensive 3 second rule in the NBA will diminish if not seriously negate his shot blocking ability since he camped in the lane for the majority of his "defense" and, like I've said many times at this point, it wasn't just Blair having one big game against Thabeet. Suton (probably undrafted), Heytvelt (second round), Monroe (2010 lottery pick) all showed that Thabeet struggles against banging post players and his production seriously diminishes when he comes up against anyone near his size and strength.
I love Thabeet's shot-blocking, but he is NOT a post-up defender. He is a help-side shot-blocker. Every comparable post-player he's had to body up in the post on defense has had their way with him.
That being said, if he's still on the board at #6...I think he's a VERY intriguing prospect. But not top 3. You don't draft top 3 because a guy has one definitive skill.
That he "doesn't like contact" is just not true. He definitely needs to get stronger in order to hold his position, but its not like people in the Big East were just backing him down at will. I guess we can agree to disagree on that point
soft means he shies away from contact - this is well documented. His man defense (before the shot) is weak.
There is no way you can draft a guy at #3 who plays inside who doesn't like contact . . .
I think you are missing the boat on Thabeet. He was by far the most dominant defensive player in the nation last year. Not sure how you could characterize his defense as "soft" in any way. The Big East had more NBA caliber players than any conference and Thabeet demonstrated clearly that he could protect the rim without fouling. Dejuan Blair having one big game against him does not really demonstrate anything, except possibly that Blair is a lottery talent as well. Comparing him to past African busts is an asinine argument given his three years of college production (and dominance). Think Dikembe Mutombo-lite rather than DeSagana Diop. Question his offense, work ethic, measurables as much as you like, but if you followed the Big East closely the past couple of years, his game-ready abilities are apparent.
@Vince
The real problem, as can be seen in Joe's original bust factor charting for players, is that this draft is just filled with question marks. Most of the players with the most physical skill have shown the least production. Players with the most production in most cases have put up some serious physical red flags. GMs are kind of forced to choose between long term potential (physical prowess) versus short term impact (college production). That's how guys who have bombed are in the lottery (DeRozan, Holiday, Jennings). Why that makes sense, I don't know.
I'm huge on the bust wagon for DeRozan and Earl Clark. I'm a Big East fan, and Clark is just not an NBA player. He's not tough enough to play inside and doesn't have the agility or the handle to play outside. "I'm not sure what he's good at" is perfect. DeRozan -- I just don't get how smart people can talk themselves into putting him in the lottery. He may be a great athlete, but he's not a great shooter and not a great basketball player. At #25 I'd like him but he strikes me as high-risk/high-reward and not enough for a lottery pick.
i think Thabeet needs one more *.
he is on his own level in terms of bust-ness.
great stuff, Royce! I'm also sick of all the butt-kissin' going on with certain analists. I think they're just posturing for future interveiws/segmients... and an autographed ball for ebay!
btw
I think Lawson is gonna be great at the next level. (also Flynn, Curry, and Rubio...)
Two very important characteristics that are usually overlooked are character and work ethic. Let's face it; most of these guys are either atletic or talented or both. What will separate the busts from the stars??? The above two qualities.
WHY are these qualities overlooked - because they are difficult to measure. Anyone can say that so and so averaged 14 and 7 last year, or that this player can blow by defenders or that player shot 41 percent from three.
How will these players handle adverse situations (losing streaks, bad teams, etc). I still remember Tracy McGrady (fake superstar) was on a team (Orlando Magic late 2003) that had lost nineteen games in a row. The media junped all over McGrady (supposed leader of the team) and his only response is "Why are you all gettin on me???" Are you kidding, who are they supposed to blame - the popcorn guy? The janitor?? Obviously, this stuff is hard to discern when a guy is leading his high school or college team to great success (Do you think that McGrady was shying away from the press in high school?). I think that character flaws are tough to find - but it's possible. Look at Brandon Jennings running off at the mouth. How about Thabeet not doing ANYTHING before the draft?? How about Jrue Holiday citing his coach and system for the lack of his success last year?? Some read into this stuff more than others, but the above three guys I wouldn't touch - no matter how much they might dazzle physically.
Work ethic may be even harder to figure out unless college coaches are willing to give this info to scouts (I doubt this). I am sure scouts and GMs try to talk to old girlfriends and professors and roomates to get some of this information. Still, this info is not widespread. I went onto realGM draft board a few minutes ago. I read where Thabeet's college coaches criticized his work ethic. Was it made up? Possibly, but I havent read ANYTHING else about his work ethic. That's including listening to and reading all the "experts".
I think that some GMs just say - 'so and so is athletic - he's flashy, he can put people in seats and we will hope he improves'. That's not a good way to draft players. Without high character and great work ethic, you are likely very overrated.
@p
Not so much his height, but his weight. 164 pounds. Can you imagine him fighting though screens? Plus the small college thing. He's going to be facing Baron Davis and Derrick Rose and Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Not the kind of guys he faced in the Colonial Athletic conference for teams like Drexel, William and Mary and Old Dominion.
I like Maynor though, he has always played big in big games.
i would say that maynor is more pro-ready than lawson ... & i wonder how his size is questioned ...
like you said though, its all relative ...
& another factor is organization ... some teams just are notoriously bad with player development (speaking of the warriors selecting steph!)
Good stuff. This kind of highlights just how much of a roulette game the draft is. All the talent and work ethic in the world can't prevent a rash of injuries. All the red flags in the world don't mean a player can't jump to stardom.
If anything were set, if we really knew what players would become, there would be no argument. And really, where would the fun in that be?
But just like my gambling tendencies (which are almost non-existent), I say go for broke. You don't win championships with a fine group of role players (unless you are the Pistons), you win with stars. If our guy doesn't pan out, we really did no worse than most every other team will. But if we hit it big, we're no longer just a talented young team with promise... we're a team to be reckoned with.
@Kev
Exactly Kev. People act like every player is going to work out and fill their need. They say things like, "The Pistons go big here with B.J. Mullens because they need a big man for the future ... the Raptors take DeRozan because they need a scorer and someone to help at the two." It's like they never consider whether or not the player will work out.
And when you inevitably see people "grade" the draft when it's over, it'll be the same thing. Only a handful of these players will be successful. The rest will go the way of Wayne Simien and Kris Humphries. Guys that were supposed to help a team when they were picked, but you'd have to put out a missing persons to find them now.
Outstanding article, Royce.
These are the things I like to read - right now, if you listen to the media, it's Christmas Eve. No player can bust. Listen to the "experts" on Thursday night. Listen to Bilas and Vitale. Watch some of the previous drafts on NBATV this week. VERY LITTLE is made of each plater's weaknesses. If you hadn't watched any college basketball, according to them EVERY pick would be very beneficial to their team. I wish they would be a little more realistic when assessing players. We shouldn't have to come here (even though I love this site) for more realistic conversation.
Being a fan this time of year is kind of like playing Deal or No Deal on your cell phone - regardless of what's offered, you're going to pick another suitcase because losing doesn't really matter.
But as we get closer, I find myself wondering, "Do we take the money (Harden) and run, or do I go for broke? There aren't a lot of numbers left on the right side, but that potential for $1 million (Rubio) is still there."
"What makes up a bust?"
you'd have to ask Dolly Parton to get the definitive answer on that....
It is a good list Joe, though I'd give Harden at least 2 *s
Should watch his diet (got to hold on to enough quickness, especially with his low elevation on most shots) and avoid taking a Michael Redd (I just care about shooting and the money that comes from it) path.
No way, shape, or form, is Ty Lawson the most pro-ready point guard in the draft. He NEVER ran a slow-paced, half court offense in his entire career at UNC. All they did was run. So unless he plays with the Knicks, Suns or Warriors, Johnny Flynn takes the tag of most all-around pro-ready PG in the draft hands down.
Good work though, Joe. And the asterisk for Blake floored me with laughter.