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Evaluating Oklahoma City’s draft

by Royce Young on June 26, 2009 at 10:24 am 110 Comments

I love how people immediately doubt Presti’s moves just because he didn’t take a guy you happen to like. Now of course everyone likes different players and we all have our thoughts, but the thing is, we don’t know about these guys yet. It’s pretty stupid to grade a draft before a guy ever plays. Just like I wrote about in my “What makes a bust” column, we don’t know how this will turn out. We could be calling the Timberwolves draft a major “F” in two years and crowning the Knicks as the huge winners. We just really don’t know.

But we all have our opinions about how OKC did, so let’s grade away anyway. Everybody’s doing it.

First pick: James Harden, shooting guard, Arizona State

It’s amazing how much momentum Ricky Rubio picked up in OKC over the last week. The fan pick went from Harden to Rubio faster than you can say Thabust. But we forget something all along – what’s the one position most everyone agreed needed to be addressed most? Shooting guard. And what did Oklahoma City draft? The best shooting guard in the draft. So how exactly is that a bad thing? Rubio would have been nice and he would have been cool. I probably would have bought a Rubio jersey. I’m sure every NBA 2K10 franchise would have been started with the Thunder. We would have been the coolest, most exciting team in the league.

But if “exciting” and “cool” doesn’t help you win games, then what do I care? Besides it’s not like Harden makes the team uncool. We’re still superfly if you ask me. Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, Somebody still looks pretty sweet methinks. And if I hear one more person say Harden is unathletic I’m going to throw myself down an empty elevator shaft. Look at his combine numbers people. LOOK!

I understand the Rubio love. I got hooked too. But did he really fill a need? And how sure are we he was even the best player at that position? Was he really that type of talent that you re-arrange your roster for? I’m not sure. If you think so, well bully for you. Sam Presti didn’t.

I flip-flopped on Rubio for a month. I still like the guy a lot but with news coming out that he may stay in Spain another year and that he’s not thrilled about Sota shows he may have been more trouble than he was worth. It’s doubtful Rubio will step on the court and play 30 minutes a night as a starter. I fully expect Harden to do exactly that. David Aldridge (who I think is pretty smart) already has Harden penciled in as his Rookie of the Year.

I really don’t know what’s not to like about this pick. Not only do you fill a need, but you do it with possibly the best player available. What’s bad about that?

Grade: A+

Second pick: B.J. Mullens, center, Ohio State

Look, I’m not some Mullens fan. I was pretty vocal about saying no to him. But that’s when I thought Presti would be trading up to 15 to get him. But at 25? As Jay Bilas would say, that’s a great value. Mullens was the top recruit in the country in 2008. He was projected as maybe the No. 1 overall pick before last year’s college season started. He didn’t live up to his hype, but he’s young and raw. He’s got top five potential. Some people said if he went back to Ohio State next year, he would have easily been taken in the top five. And instead of really having to leap a bunch of teams, Mullens fell basically right to OKC. But the Thunder lands him at 25 (technically he was 24 and traded, but you know what I mean).

Presti doesn’t deny it – Mullens is a project. But I think he’s a worthy project. What else do you do with this pick? Take another point guard? Got five of them, thanks. A shooting guard? Yeah, just got a new one. Small forward? Spot taken. Big man? That was a position that needed addressing and Presti took a flier. I see a very raw Tyson Chandler in Mullens. A 7-foot-1 guy that shouldn’t be as athletic as he is, but has a long way to go to being anything. But the Thunder needs a player like what Mullens can be. And in a draft where there were only two guys the size and position of him, I think getting him at 25 is a pretty stinking good value.

Sure Mullens stinks offensively but I’m pretty sure The Birdman does just fine without any offensive skills. It a risk. But a very low risk, with potentially a lot of reward. It makes sense to me and in four years we may be laughing about Mullens in the same vein as we do Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene. Or we could be talking about what a freaking genius Presti was for taking him. I’ll take the chance.

Grade: B-

Third pick: Cash traded for Robert Vaden, shooting guard, UAB

This is just kind of a “Ah, what they hey?” move. Vaden is a lights-out shooter. Really, I don’t know if anybody shoots the ball better than him in this draft. Not even Stephen Curry. Watch some tape on Vaden – he’s ridiculous. He can heat up faster than a gas stove. He’s got absolutely unlimited range, a quick release and he can shoot really well off balance. But he’s no sure thing to make the team. I actually imagine he’ll get signed and spend some time in Tulsa. But that’s just a guess. The Thunder needs a specialist shooter and Vaden could be that guy. Guys like this don’t work out hardly ever, but it’s worth the shot, I think.

Grade: C+

I remember last year when people were wondering what the crap Presti was doing. They looked at D.J. Augustin, Jerryd Bayless and Brook Lopez and couldn’t believe Presti passed on them for Russell Freaking Westbrook. People said that if Presti really wanted Westbrook, why didn’t he just trade down to get him? How could he possibly pass on a player like Bayless? Well, who’s laughing now? Westbrook just had one of the most dynamic rookie campaigns in a while and gave lots of reasons to get excited about him. Bayless rode the bench more often than not and Augustin played well, but not near as well as Westbrook. Though I will say, Brook Lopez would have been nice.

Like I said, I think it’s kind of silly to grade a draft. As I was handing out a score for Robert Vaden I was thinking, “How the heck should I know how good of a pick this is?” I like acquiring Vaden, but there’s not a ton of chance we see much of him. Second round picks don’t always make it. Some do though and it would be awesome if Vaden were a Roger Mason Jr. or Michael Redd type of steal. But we don’t really know. People are bummed about missing on Rubio. That’s fine if you wanted him. But they act like OKC just drafted David Godbold or something.

James Harden is a big-time player. All-American, PAC-10 player of the year, a 20 ppg scorer in college, one of the top guards in the country the last two years. I remember last year the No. 1 thing we complained about as Thunder fans was the need for a secondary scorer, a solid mid-range player and a guy that could hit an open three. And we got him. I didn’t hear anybody saying, “You know, what we REALLY need is another point guard to replace our guy that just had an awesome rookie season.” I think Rubio could have worked. I think him and Russ could have co-existed. But it probably would have taken time for that to develop. Oklahoma City got better immediately last night with the pick of James Harden.

Overall Draft Grade: B+

[poll id="9"]

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Crow
Crow 5pts

Vaden might end up a trade piece in a bigger deal. Unless they can move or buyout Wilkins. Or maybe they wait n see if he develops elsewhere like with DeVon Hardin and might bring him in after a year or two.

LuXiaoyu
LuXiaoyu 5pts

Only Harden at No.3 is a beautiful move.Acquisition of Mullens at 25 is also tremendous steal.
Vaden is a additive bonus.
I give the Thunder A.Nice Job.

sam
sam 5pts

The Thunder I think are doing this the right way. You draft the best player that will help the players that you already have in place. If they draft Rubio(if he would even play in OKC) I think that will hurt Westbrook in the long run. Harden is a smart safe pick that by mid-season will help with scoring. Who knows maybe some team will want to dump a big contract and they pick up a really good big man.

p
p 5pts

may not need an "all-world center" to win a chip ...

you SURELY need at least 1 all-star big man ... i would assume thats the next goal.

p
p 5pts

lilrip133 :
Vaden: The kid has a ratchet. If he makes the team, he could materialize to be an EXTREMELY good pick. I’ve watched a ton of his games just to see him light it up and not only is he a great shooter with unlimited range, he’s relatively long and plays with a cool and maturity that you don’t find in a ton of players. He’ll accept his role, and with the athletes around him, he’ll get a ton of good looks. I think the draft, once again, was a huge success.

i totally agree.

and don't see any reason why okc should take patty mills with a ton of point guards on the roster & a desperate need for shooting. (which vaden has the ability to provide)

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@Rosseposse
I understand, but it's pretty far down as concerns go. Jeff Green is pretty versatile as more than just a scorer. Russell Westbrook will develop his distributing skills. Thabo can fill the lockdown bench wing defender. Collison (at least while he's on the team) is the rebounding/energy/glue guy. No one is saying this team is in championship (or even contending) form just yet, but as young cores stacked with talent go, there's none more exciting in the league. OKC still needs depth and talent at several positions. I'm not of the school that you need an all-world center to win championships, but you do need at least a couple bigs that can lockdown the interior and bang around for rebounds.

A backup PG, a 2/3 shooter off the bench, and a few guys to bang in the middle... these are all valuable and necessary additions to a contending Thunder team, but time is one thing Presti has and as these assets become available over time I have confidence he'll make the right moves and decisions to obtain them.

Hank
Hank 5pts

Nice boat Spike

lilrip133
lilrip133 5pts

I think the Thunder honestly may have had the best draft out of ANYBODY. not only did they pick up great talent, but they got great talent that fit perfectly into their system. Harden was the best pick at number 3. I love Rubio's game, but let's be honest. He's not NBA quick, he's not extremely athletic, and he's an unreliable shooter with limited range. He's extremely crafty with the ball but we really didn't need a point man anyway, and I honestly think (especially with the TWolves) he won't materialize to the player so many think he'll be.
Mullens: Not a fan in the least bit, but when you look at the fact that we have 4 bonafide athletes and scorers accompanying him on the court not to mention thabo sefalosha, at the very worst we've got a 7' 1" space eater down low. Who wouldn't want that?
Vaden: The kid has a ratchet. If he makes the team, he could materialize to be an EXTREMELY good pick. I've watched a ton of his games just to see him light it up and not only is he a great shooter with unlimited range, he's relatively long and plays with a cool and maturity that you don't find in a ton of players. He'll accept his role, and with the athletes around him, he'll get a ton of good looks. I think the draft, once again, was a huge success.

spikedaddy72
spikedaddy72 5pts

yes, rubio has prima donna appeal for sure, hardin is definately the best possible pick, he is impressive so far with his mellow, laid back coolness. sooooo glad we didnt take rubio. anybody want to read my draft analysis, check my blog at www.spikedaddy72.blogspot.com

BigVessXpress
BigVessXpress 5pts

As more comes out on the Minny/Rubio situation I get more and more glad we didn't take him. Think I see a major prima donna in the making that will end up being more trouble than he's worth. I'll take the guy that pounds his chest with excitement about playing anytime over that.

MartzMimic
MartzMimic 5pts

@Bryan

They're also playing in the Orlando summer league beginning July 6.

http://www.nba.com/magic/news/summer_league_schedule_2009.html

MartzMimic
MartzMimic 5pts

@Rosseposse

To be honest, one reason I like Harden is that he's not going to take a lot of shots away from Durant. I'm too lazy to pull up the stats, but as I recall, he only averaged 13 shots per game. In one of the interviews, he was talking about how both his high school and college coaches kept wanting him to shoot more. He may take shots away from Russ, but he's going to do more with them.

Rosseposse
Rosseposse 5pts

@Sammy What I meant was those 4 are going to need a lot of shots each, where is our Horace Grant, Robert Horry, etc... Our team reminds me more of the Mavericks with Mashburn, Kidd and Jimmy Jackson.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@Rosseposse
A playoff contender? How about the Orlando Magic in 2008-2009? Sure they had Dwight Howard in the middle, but no one ever said Krstic was the final answer at 5. And Durant is already way better than Lewis or Hedo. Or how about the Cavs this year? They seemed to go pretty far in the playoffs with one and a half scorers.

Rosseposse
Rosseposse 5pts

I like Harden enough, but when was the last time a team with 4 scorers a playoff contender, let alone a champion?

Bryan
Bryan 5pts

Man, how do I get by between now in summer league?

Here's the Thunder's schedule if anyone is interested, not sure how coverage works just yet.

http://www.nba.com/thunder/news/summer_schedule090622.html

Andy
Andy 5pts

My buddies and I played a game where we rated players on their scores on NBA 10. Yeah... we're bored at work.

Here are the averages from important players.
B. Griffin- 85
Hasheem Thabeet- 75
James Harden- 84
Ricky Rubio- 80
Johhny Flynn- 82
Tyler Hansborough- 78

It's a fun game.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Interesting take over @draftexpress.
Givony had a pretty accurate mock draft and he and Chad Ford obviously have the most intimate knowledge of the machinations that take place pre-draft.

He had this to say about Presti:
"Sam Presti definitely played this one perfectly in terms of keeping things close to the vest, but he probably didn’t make himself any friends in the process. This was obviously the best fit in terms of his team’s situation, but you can’t fault their GM for trying to make the best possible deal he could find. He definitely had David Kahn fooled."

p
p 5pts

Latest pass ...

Draft was great. I can't see how it could get anything but an A ...

Best 2guard. Not as much risk as any other possible 3rd pick.

Don't like BJ or Byron. But @#25, what's not to like. Low risk, huge upside.
& I LIKE Darth. On shooting ability alone.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Everyone saying that DJ White is just as good as Blair needs to take another look at the numbers. DeJuan Blair is one of the best rebounders in the NCAA of all time. That's not an exaggeration. He's the best rebounder of the last 8 years, and an absolute terror on the offensive glass. A healthy Blair is a tremendous asset of the bench. Of course he may not be healthy for very long, but even if you assume Blair is finished in three years, in the meantime, you're paying a fraction of the MLE for production you can't buy anywhere else at that price.

He may not have been the right fit for OKC because of his long term injury risk, but I find it inexcusable that the Cavs, Bulls, Portland, and every other playoff contender with need for interior toughness passed him up.

Royce
Royce 5pts

I believe in Sam Presti: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-41-157/Ricky-Rubio--Playing-Minnesota-Poker.html

The Rubio-Minnesota situation is getting weird.

Bryan
Bryan 5pts

As I said above, Rubio was a potential disaster. Sure, we may have passed on the sports car in favor of something a bit more practical, but we are not going to end up in the guard rail.

okcnba
okcnba 5pts

@toni
YOU'RE DURANT/ODEN ANALOGY IS PERFECT...

Except that it's different: Players, Draft, Positions, Talent, Needs, and team... the fact that neither player was a premadonna not willing to play for multiple teams in the draft, the fact that Oden was thought of as the best Center to enter the draft in over a decade (and Rubio is not thought of that way, some believe he's the greatest thing since sliced bread, there are WAY more questions about this Rubio kid). So many HUGE differences in the analogy.

But other than all that you are RIGHT ON!

toni
toni 5pts

rubio would have gone to okc at #3, salary would have matched..altough I think Presti will be always remembered for passing Rubio,specially when natural PG westbrook lost his mind in some playoff crucial moment, actually Fegan(rubio's agent) did an atrocius work.

toni
toni 5pts

greg oden is a better fit for portland than durant, isn't he?..blazers fans were defending that two years ago, like some of you now with harden,shame that usually works for better player, right pritchard?...bj has no motor at all, but he is a late 1st round, so it's no risk at alaltough I think he will avg 1.6 p 1.4 r at best

okcnba
okcnba 5pts

I love how everyone assumes that we will be better than Pheonix this year. We will still be 1 of the bottom 10 teams in the league for atleast this year.

Bryan
Bryan 5pts

It looks like I missed all the activity earlier, but I'll leave my two cents anyway. Given the Rubio talk this morning I think it is safe to say that Presti's decision to hire a lawyer saved us from disaster. We dodged a bullet on the Rubio deal. He will be a really good NBA player eventually. But not here, not now.

And Harden will really help the team.

And, don't think that all the Mullens-Swift comparisons are really fair. Yeah he played limited minutes with mixed results at Ohio and yes he is a project. But, he has one thing that Sene and Swift never had: athleticism. You don't see many guys that big that can move the way he does. There is real potential there.

And Vaden. OK, so he's old and kind of a wild card. But what the hell. It's not like we wasted a pick on him, just cash. He's worth a shot and may help make Tulsa a better team for a while.

With that, I say the draft gets a B, primarily because presti did exactly what we all initially expected he would - well after he threw us all off.

Can't wait to see summer league...

Josh
Josh 5pts

@Dylan

Blair does have a Milsap-ish 7'2" wingspan and 8'10.5" standing reach, so I think the rebounding numbers will translate. His knees and weight are a risk, but in the late first or second (if you trade up) round I think it would have been worth it.

Andy
Andy 5pts

I like the gangsta mack in the cadillac part too.....

Steve H
Steve H 5pts

Harden= Perfect fit. Enough said on that.
Mullens is a great value pick at 25, who has all of the physical tools to become the sort of interior defensive, shot blocking, rebounding presence we need going forward- He's just not ripe yet. The exact same thing can be said of Ibaka. At least one of those two guys, if properly brought along, could/should develop into our starting center of the future.
So what do we do now? I have thought about this, and am convinced we no longer need to shop for Gortat, or Lee, or Milsap, or Boozer. Who we need for next year- and hopefully the year after that if he likes the franchise half as much as Rose did is....(drumroll)... Marcus Camby! Clippers have a log-jam in their front court they need to relieve, could use a quality veteran back up PG, and are looking to build for the future. We could package Watson and our own first round pick next year to land that big fella. In the short term, he is EXACTLY the sort of shotblocking,rebounding interior defensive presence we need. On top of that, I can't imagine a better big man mentor/roll model for our young center crop to come up under. We could even look to hire him as a big man coach to ride herd on our young centers when he hangs up his gym shoes.
As for the PF spot, platooning Green/White and Collison should be fine this coming year. Our PHX pick could realistically fall in the top five for next year's draft if they do in fact ship out Amare, and are un-able to re-sign Nash. Draftexpress's 2010 mock board is chock-full of beastly looking PF prospects. We grab the nastiest looking one next year with the PHX pick, and from there it's just a matter of re-signing all of the talent we have accumulated. Now how does that plan sound?

Dooney
Dooney 5pts

For those that are curious...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSyZMgsgNrs

Just the "bowtie round my neck" part.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

I only know of HoopsHype and USAToday... what are your other sources?

Andy
Andy 5pts

I remember when I was little the Orlando Magic had the magic sound after a free throw was made.... What if we had booming thunder or lightening crackle every time we made a free throw? or a 3 pointer?

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@Andy
No one's disagreement there. I already said my piece on the Rubio/Harden thing. And, in the larger scheme, I don't have a big problem with the Mullens pick, just saying there were some other guys I preferred.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Sammy
There are a few places to find out about contract info that's fairly up to date, I just recommend confirming it with two or more sites that don't credit each other as the source.

Every so often, espn is one of them.

Dooney
Dooney 5pts

@MartzMimic

My vote would go to Outkast's "Bowtie." But I seriously dig ThaBoTie.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Sammy
Personal feelings can certainly influence our ideas about picks and players, and seems to be affecting some media members more than others lately on their criticism of ALL of the draft picks. But reasonably speaking, I really don't disagree with the tentative nature you have towards taking Mullens at all. He's boom or bust all the way.

I'm just fine with a boom or bust at 25. If we would have traded up to get him at 14 and gave up Phoenix's unprotected 2010 pick...ugh, I think I just threw up in my mouth a little just typing that out.

Andy
Andy 5pts

@Sammy

I'd rather boom or bust with the 25th pick rather than the 3rd pick. He's just a 3rd string center but maybe we could turn him and a draft pick next year into a Shaun Marion type pick if we come out of the gates hot...

MartzMimic
MartzMimic 5pts

Song for when Harden scores: Ali & Gipp's "Hard in Da Paint."

I can't be at the meet and greet tomorrow, but if I could, I would so be wearing a bow tie.

I'm amending my suggestion for our shooting guard combo to ThaBoTie.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@J.G.
The first comment was just a personal prediction. Watson and Atkins are just taking up roster spots on this squad. Couldn't find Livingston's contract terms anywhere (including on HoopsHype).

Anyway, reasonable minds can disagree. Sure, I think Mullins upside is great, but this is the definition of a boom or bust pick and I'd put the likelihood of bust somewhere around 90-95%. Plus, well, I just personally hate the guy. :)

Dooney
Dooney 5pts

We need to get "Don't Shave the Beard" Harden on Twitter... I'd like to get some insight on his game, his thoughts about OKC, and how long it takes to fully grow that beard out.

I wouldn't mind seeing Uncle Jeff on there too.

KingGondo
KingGondo 5pts

Anybody seen Amare Stoudemire's Twitter? Says he's going to the Lakers. Seems to be his legit Twitter feed, so I don't know what to think.

Andy
Andy 5pts

@Dylan

Nah.. There are 10 or 15 TKEs on campus that are diehard like I am. Nothing better than going to the Ford center and praying the Thunder win.... but now that we have Harden hopefully those 3 point losses will turn into 3 point wins.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Sammy
You said that Watson and Atkins would be gone before the season started. Now you're saying that Watson will be traded by the deadline and Atkins contract actually expires next year.

I'm arguing with the first option. :) And the the "likelihood" that Livingston will be gone after next year. And the fact that the Livingston deal was for an undisclosed amount. It was for $854,957 this year, through next year.

I do like Calathes, but not as much as the upside of Mullens at 25.

Dylan
Dylan 5pts

@Josh

i know rebounds translate from college>nba very well, but blair is less than 2 inches taller than russ. That throws a wrench into the translations, I'd think. For every barkley there's a Tractor Traylor that could never get past his lack of height. Mix in his arthritic knees and teams got scared off of a one-dimensional guy.

Josh
Josh 5pts

@ James, Royce.

Not to nit-pick but I don't think Blake was projected 10-14. By the end of last year I think Blake was probably viewed as a top 5-7 guy, maybe even top 3, and the consensus favorite for #1 in 2009. I do think Mullens was worth a flier at 25, but I think he would have been projected as a fringe lottery guy next year.

Also, still not sure about passing on Blair. As several people have pointed out, even if his knees give out in 3 or 4 years, its hard to find a rebounding machine that cheap.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@J.G.
Huh. What are arguing again? I think we're in agreement that by the time Calathes would arrive, Watson, Atkins, and likely Livingston will all be gone.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

@J.G.
What I meant is that Watson is vocally unhappy on the Thunder, he has an expiring contract, and has requested a trade. I'd be surprised if he was on the Thunder next season (if he was, he'd certainly be traded by the deadline). Atkins' contract also expires next year. I don't see him filling any useful role on this team now or in the future. Livingston was signed to a "multi-year" contract with undisclosed terms. Speculation was that that simply meant he was signed for last season and this season, but I guess we don't really know. Calathes wouldn't arrive until 2010-2011 at the earliest.

Dylan
Dylan 5pts

@Andy

Excellent. I live about a mile from campus. I actually ran past the suites a couple of hours ago.

I thought my brother and I were the only Thunder fans here.

Dan
Dan 5pts

Tyson :
The Thunder was a cool team, until you called them “superfly”…
And we already have a Dejuan Blair, his name is DJ White, and I believe our version still has knees.

That's exactly what I was going to say. When I watched DeJuan Blair this year it felt like watching White his senior year. I was stoked when we picked up White last year, and I'm really looking forward to watching him come alive in the upcoming season.

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