Part 1 is here.
The idea in part 1 was that in order to become an upper crust team, a team needed to field a group of scorers that consisted of either two class Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed). A class A scorer is a player who has his points per shot in the 1.3 range and above. A class B scorer is between 1.2 and 1.29. And both of these have to include shooting the ball around 12 times per game or above.
This of course doesn’t take into account defense, but as a starting point, the team still has to be able to outscore the opponent, and the model works on a very basic level. It speaks to efficient offense, something the Thunder lack.
The 06-07 Spurs were comprised of three A level scorers:
Duncan: 1.41 pps-14 fga/gm
Parker: 1.30 pps-14.2 fga/gm
Ginobli: 1.44 pps-11.4 fga/gm.
These three guys took roughly half the shots for the Spurs that year. In the playoffs things tightened up, but the efficient offense and great defense prevailed:
Duncan: 1.32 pps-16.7 fga/gm
Parker: 1.18 pps-17.5 fga/gm
Ginobli: 1.34 pps-12.35 fga/gm.
Notice that these three guys shot the ball even more during the playoffs. The star players took on an even bigger role.
This year’s Cleveland Cavaliers team had a makeup that didn’t conform to the model and had difficulty in the playoffs:
Lebron: 1.42 pps-19.2 fga/gm
Williams: 1.28 pps-13.9 fga/gm
Ilgauskus: 1.16 pps-11.1 fga/gm
D.West: 1.19 pps-9.8 fga/gm.
Here the Cavs had one A+ scorer in Lebron, and one B scorer in Mo Williams, but the supporting cast were in the C range. In the playoffs, the supporting cast fell off even worse:
Lebron: 1.58 pps-22.2 fga/gm
Williams: 1.16 pps-14 fga/gm
Ilgauskus: 1.06 pps- 9.85 fga/gm
D.West: 1.22 pps-11.2 fga/gm.
Lebron became even more efficient, and took on a bigger load, but big Z and Mo Williams took a dive. One A scorer and a bunch of C scorers were exposed in the playoffs.
In part one I explained that Kevin Durant was one of only 29 class A scorers in the NBA last year, and that Jeff Green just managed to fall into the class B range. Russell didn’t qualify as either, but he took enough shots. That left us looking for another potential class A or B scorer to pair up with Green, Durant and Westbrook. D.J. White might be a good candidate, but he plays the 4 as does Green.
The most likely way to conform to the model would be to bring in a 2 who is a bona fide Class A or B player. With the draft coming up, I took some time and looked at who the most efficient scorers were in this year’s crop of potential wings:
S.Curry: 1.41 pps
Harden: 1.55 pps
Budinger: 1.38 pps
T.Evans: 1.25 pps
Lee Cummard: 1.43 pps
G. Henderson: 1.28 pps
Ellington: 1.35 pps
DeRozan: 1.32 pps
D. Green: 1.27 pps
T.Williams: 1.17 pps
J.Holiday: 1.19 pps
Meeks: 1.5 pps
J.Taylor: 1.34 pps. And just for fun and comparison’s sake, here are a few recent pros and how they fared in college:
J.J.Redick: 1.49 pps
Durant: 1.39 pps
J.Green: 1.38 pps
Westbrook: 1.27 pps
O.J. Mayo: 1.27 pps
Derrick Rose: 1.36 pps
Adam Morrison: 1.50 pps.
Most of the guys on these lists were either the top scorer and go to guy on their team, or close to it. Defenses were built to stop these guys, and yet they still were able to retain great efficiency night in and night out. The exceptions are probably Gerald Henderson, Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, Budinger, Westbrook and Holiday.
In the wings from this year’s draft, a few players just weren’t that efficient. And if they can’t be efficient scorers at the college level, they likely won’t be in the pros anytime soon. Right off the bat I would discount Jrue Holiday, Tarrance Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyreke Evans and Danny Green. Notice the guy that most Daily Thunder readers love James Harden. He tops the list. His scoring is a unique blend of all of the traits that you look for in a scorer. He is unselfish (he took less than 13 shots per game), he is a great passer, he can shoot from deep and midrange, he can drive to the basket and finish, and he gets to the line almost 8 times per game at the college level. He does this all while being the focus of the opposing defense, and retaining great efficiency.
Stephon Curry also gets high marks considering he was looking to create for team mates and also being the best player by far on his team. Lee Cummard is an underrated scorer and probably won’t even get into the first round unfortunately.
Harden I think would fit perfectly alongside Westbrook providing great efficiency and intangibles. Ideally of course the team needs to improve on defense as well and not just the offensive side of the ball, but there is good evidence that teams improve defensive efficiency as they age.
How would Rubio fit in to this fomula if we draft him and move RW to the 2 spot?(or the best 6-man in the leauge!)
Don't get me wrong, I love Harden more and more ever post, but Presti might do what Chicago did and take a "CP3/D. Will type" potintial point, even though they already had Hinrich and Gordan.
Not that many top draft options are likely 2 way strong players in the NBA.
I dunno about Rubio. Hill might be capable but will he play hard enough? People might project Holiday that way but the offense may not be that hot.
Find a true 2 way player and that guy might need to move up the board some. Danny Green looks too low down to me.
Might be hard to get Durant in the post much without a second defender coming over to pester. Though I guess if you played 2 of Krstic, Green and White and spread them away from the lane it could work.
There are some guys who will probably be available in the second round who might be decent prospects. Especially at PF. If they like one maybe buy a 2nd rounder (if cheap- they should be this season). Never can have too many bigs... who can play.
I haven't seen him but based on what's on paper Cummard might be a good summer league / camp invite and / or let him play overseas and watch n see.
Man I love this type of stuff. Great info.
i think the inside out game is covered with durant, aren't we forgeting he is 6'10 with a 7'5 wingspan. he can post smaller defenders up and shoot turnarounds all day like kobe. uncle jeff can do the same. with westbrook slashing and harden's out side shooting and passing then the Thunder will be ungaurdble. plus even if green or westbrook dont become A scorers we still have 1 A scorer with 4 B scorers in westbrook, green, harde, and dj white off the bench. now the only problem is durant and green good defenders and a solid low post presince. also what do you think of gerald green. the dude is a freak athlete and was the 1 high school player when he came out plus he's a good shooter but was never realy given a chance to play, he's also a free agent this summer.
I do think the idea of inside-outside needs to be looked at a little more. It's one thing to say we need 2 great scorers, but if they are all three point shooters, or all midrange shooters, or both in the post, I can't imagine that would be conducive to winning. A team can shutdown the three point line, the screen game, or the paint. But if you have someone down low and another for the perimeter, it spreads the defense too thin and opens up the game for one of your class A scorers.
Very, very well done Joe.
Ok, I'm sold, now we HAVE to draft Harden. It has taken some convincing but I think he could really be a vital part to this team.
Great posts!
I wonder how Harden compares to Arenas coming out of college?
I should look that up...
excellent article . . . love the college stats . . .
@Crow
Presti obviously isn't looking at the roster in terms of class A or B, he's just trying to get the best basketball players he can at each position; and I just thought it would be fun to sort of put them into these categories based on that post on Hornets 24/7.
But yeah, Durant is an A, and Green will never be an A if he doesn't get to the basket more with drives or post play, which will get him to the line more for easy points. Just shooting outside and a bit of midrange will probably keep him as a B guy for most of his career.....unless I am wrong and he takes another huge jump forward in his shooting ability like he did from his first year to his second. Westbrook should also improve his efficiency by getting better shots and finishing better when he gets to the cup.
Harden to me seems like the guy that is the missing piece to the offensive puzzle. I say offense here because the defense is a whole different subject. Harden drives to the left and everybody knows it, but at the college level they still couldn't stop it most nights. He's got a good midrange game, an improving off the dribble game, and good deep shooting. Plus he's a great passer, which will really free up some of the ball handling duties from Westbrook. I can totally picture Harden handling the rock and Westbrook cutting to the basket for a dunk with his athleticism and size against smaller point guards.
Again, defense here is not really discussed, but when you are the worst offensive team in the league in so many categories, it's a good place to start.
If Presti is still thinking Durant-Green is going to be his 2 class As then Green probably should focus on the inside more. With a face up with space and drive game. Krstic probably helps creates space for that drawing his defender away from the paint. But looks more like 1 class A and lots of potential class Bs right now.
If you look at the successful 2 class A examples I think they are mostly inside-outside combos, giving each room to operate, two ways for the team to hurt you so the defense can't overload.
Magic and Lakers have that. So did older Lakers, Heat, Spurs, Rockets, old Detroit. Jordan-Pippen was perimeter but they both got inside a lot and couldn't be stopped from doing so, therefore it was fine. The 1 yr champs Larry Brown Pistons probably had less inside of any. They needed the super defense a lot.
For Thunder the inside-outside design still needs tuning. Outside and probably inside too as I think they can still be stopped from getting inside and doing big damage, I think.
I haven't studied it in detail but guys who can score several ways (including setting up teammates) might be more consistent on scoring impact than guys who are all outside (or all inside if they aren't an unstoppable beast and are facing a tough matchup).
nice post. thunder r going to be a fun team to watch next yr
Another factor is consistency, especially for the playoffs. If you go 2 class A guys they either need to largely avoid clunker games or one will have to have the ability to really amp it up to cover for the other. If you go 1 class A and 2 class B you might ride out the lows of any player a bit easier, more often but it also might be tougher to excel enough overall against the very best. The near class B guys are valuable and more available and not always expensive and you'd want a few of those too.