And now for the next trick. But don’t worry, I don’t think free agency is near as stressful and draft time. Especially when you’re a team that’s got very specific needs and the market doesn’t have a whole lot of drop-everything-and-sign-him type of players. So what’s the plan for free agency?
Sam Presti isn’t looking for the quick fix. He’s still looking to build long term. Which is something you may not appreciate next year, but you will in five. Reader Chas said it perfectly: “One playoff run is nothing compared to 8-10 stellar seasons where we are always in contention.” I think Presti and Co. have that exact same mindset. There’s no pressure to win and win big now. Everyone knows it’s a process and this organization is in no huge hurry. Which is a smart way to build.
The free agency signing period starts at midnight and with a little money in the piggy bank, some feel like this is a chance for Sam Presti to prove his worth again. There’s some good players out there that are looking to get paid – Trevor Ariza, Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu, Ben Gordon. There’s not a ton of top-tier talent, but there’s enough to pay attention to.
But I’m not so sure Presti will be doing much of anything. I’m sure he’s got his eye on a few players, but right now, he could live with the current roster. Of course it could and should be improved, but Presti appears to be the type of guy that likes to do that through the draft and through smart, sensible trades. Look at his summer free agent signing history:
- Signed guard C.J. Miles to an offer sheet.
That’s it. That’s all he’s done in summer free agency in two years as GM. Now he’s pulled a bunch of small signings like Chris Alexander and Derrick Byers for training camp, signing Kyle Weaver, inking guys like Eddie Gill and Ronald Dupree for 10 days and also of course signing Nenad Krstic last winter. But he’s not the type of GM that’s shown to jump into free agent waters and make a big splash. At least not yet.
Oklahoma City doesn’t really need a big name player. The keys to the car have been turned over to Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and now James Harden. While a Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap would obviously help right now, signing one of those two could set you back for your long term plans. You’ve got to let your existing parts develop and turn into your breadwinners. One bad free agent signing where you overpay for a player because he had a good postseason can set your franchise back years or leave you scrambling to dump the salary (see: Elton Brand, Philadelphia 76ers). It can decimate your cap room and handcuff you from making solid trades that improve your team. It turns you from a buyer to a seller, even if you’re in the playoff hunt (also see: New Orleans Hornets). And I just don’t think that’s Presti’s way. Maybe it is and maybe he’s got an offer sheet all filled out for Paul Millsap, but I’m just not so sure.
The Thunder needs complementary pieces, not a big star to stick in the middle. This team is basically close to being built. It’s just a matter of time before the parts grow up and turn their skill and talent into winning. While the Thunder can obviously improve in different areas, signing someone to a four-year, $50 million contract doesn’t necessarily do that. But if Presti does see a guy like Millsap worth the price tag, then I’ll just have to chalk that up to his vision for the team. If you can get a guy like that for $6-8M per, then go for it. But we all know that’s probably not going to be happening.
One huge hole the Thunder roster had last year was a quality scoring option at 2-guard. A guy that could hit a mid-range shot, slash and create for other players and hit an open three. James Harden supposedly has filled that need. So you can take guys like Ben Gordon, Allen Iverson and Nate Robinson off your wish list. If you even had them on it to start with. Another hole was some scoring off the bench. That need is still there, depending on where Harden plays. But who knows, D.J. White and Kyle Weaver may be able to provide some of that. They were just rookies last year you know and White only played seven games. That’s the thing, there’s a lot of bodies on this roster. Even guys like Serge Ibaka and DeVon Hardin haven’t been forgotten about. So if Ibaka could be a quality big man in this league, what’s the point of inking Millsap (or someone like him) to a multi-year, mega-money deal?
Here’s a stab at what the rotation depth chart the Thunder could have come opening night:
PG – Westbrook/Livingston/ Watson
SG- Sefolosha/ Harden/ Weaver
SF- Durant/ Sefolosha/ Weaver
PF- Green/ Collison/ White
C - Krstic/ Collison/ Mullens
Could that depth chart be better? Sure. But how much of it based on what’s already there improving? If four of those guys are for sure in OKC’s long term plans and guys like Thabo, Collison, Krstic and D.J. White are potentially long term players, there’s not a ton of leverage to go out and add two or three guys. So what positions could the Thunder look to improve in free agency this summer? The cap room is there to make a deal or two, but will they? If the roster’s just about full, what do you do?
That’s why you’re looking at adding selective pieces. A quality backup/starting big man that can rebound and block shots. A dead-eye shooter off the bench that can stretch defensive and provide a little offense. Really, that’s it. That’s the major needs. And while they’re probably a few years off from being there, those holes could have been filled by the drafting of Robert Vaden and B.J. Mullens. Heck, White and Weaver could be those players anyway. That’s why it’s hard to say if OKC will do anything this free agent season. A lot of it depends on how Presti views his youngsters.
But for now, Presti could target players that can fill those roles until his youngsters get there, assuming they ever do. But Presti doesn’t have to do that. He has the ability to, but if the price isn’t right he’s not going to jeopardize re-signing his cornerstone players just so he can ink a backup center or long-range bomber. If this team were a Carlos Boozer away from contending for a title, Presti would probably pull the trigger and spend big, no doubt. But its not. So there’s no need to hurry. I think the fans are willing to wait and as a result, the payoff could be fantastic. There’s a lot of players in this league and missing out on a backup center isn’t the end of the world. For the right price I think a guy like Marcin Gortat is a great fit. But there’s no sense in overpaying for a 20-25 minute a night guy. You just have to make sure your return is worth the cost.
I wouldn’t expect anything to blow your socks off this summer. There’s some big names out there and I’m sure Presti will prod and poke to see what he can get, but I doubt anything major will be done. Free agency for the Thunder is equally as important as the draft, but it may be more about cutting ties and freeing room than it is about bringing a bunch of new players. Don’t forget, as of midnight tonight, Robert Swift, Desmond Mason and Malik Rose come off the books as well. And I’m thinking it’s unlikely to see any of those three re-sign with Oklahoma City. So Presti will have a little spending money to play with and I think he’ll look to sign one, maybe two players that will fit in and fill a need. But even that’s maybe a stretch.
Presti views the trade deadline as his free agency where he can deal expiring contracts to other teams and get a good player in return that’s already been signed. It’s his way around free market capitalism and his way to get a guy with a reasonable contract. Instead of fighting and bidding against other teams, he gets his guy for a price he likes and for a term he’s comfortable with. It’s incredibly smart management.
The point is, it’s unlikely right now for the Thunder to do a cannonball into the free agency pool. Presti is a guy that prides himself on small, calculated shrewd moves. It wouldn’t shock me if the Thunder doesn’t do anything in free agency. Patience is the plan for Presti and he’s taking his time to build this team for long term contention. And you’ll thank him for that in a couple years.
@Roryk
no
What about a guy like Micheal Beasley? we know Pat Riley wanted to trade him at the draft, y not trying to pursue acquiring him for maybe Jeff Green and a 2nd rounder. He's a true PF, likes 2 play on the low block, grabs boards and does alot of the things Jeff Green does but better. Sure he needs a little motivation, but the oppurtunity to play with his childhood freind Kevin Durant would really bring the best out of him, do you think a trade like that would work? and do u think presti would roll the dice on such a trade?
Sometimes I can be brief and it is good to learn that other careful observers have the same assessment.
But we'll find out what Sam thinks soon.
@Crow
Agree Crow. For the money Lee is going to want, he's not worth it.
@Crow
Spot on about Lee. Nice post.
I wouldn't target David Lee. His defense is mediocre at best. Rebounding is not their biggest need.
If they can't include Wilkins in a trade, offer him a $1.5 - 2 million buyout. Move on.
If they have space CJ Watson might be a good backup PG. Improved at almost everything from year 1 to 2. Age 25.
we don't have any choice - it was a player option, not a team option . . .
@Greg
It's a player option. There's no way he's making more with another team on the open market this year.
Better yet, why would we bring him back?
Greg :Why is D-Wilk coming back?
the better question is why would Wilkens NOT come back???
Did Crow sign in as @Kev today or something?
Wilkins opts to return to Thunder
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4298351
Why is D-Wilk coming back?
I guess I shouldve stated that there is a rumor that we're one of two teams that might sign him to an offer sheet . . .
Lee may be headed here . . .
http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/60223/20090630/source_lee_leaving_new_york/
@Chas
I hope we sign Uncle Jeff to a long term contract at the end of this coming season because I love what he brings to the team- but ultimately I think he will be coming off the bench behind KD, and playing the 4 only when we opt to go small and run.
I don't think that it is too unreasonable to expect JG to increase his rebounding. He played outside a lot of the time last year and still managed to avg. 6.7 boards. If he brought his game more into the mid range and low areas, couldn't he increase his rebounding pretty drastically.
@soundguy
I honestly don't think bench production should be much of a problem this year. Remember that Livingston didn't join us till mid-season, White looked pretty capable when he got into a few games towards the end, and we should be bringing Krstic off the bench if we land Gortat or Camby this off-season. Also wouldn't be suprised to see some improvement in Thabo's shooting percentage- I think last year was his third in the league, and he is probably getting more minutes burn than ever.
Vega :@KevAnd those would both have been amazingly stupid trades.
of course they would have been stupid, but that's not the point. I was simply countering his implication that Presti shouldn't even think about trading Green . . .
@Vince
Green is small for a 4 and 6.7 RPG for a 4 is not good.
I will go one better - using Hollinger's rebound rate. Green's is 10.4. Compare that to Kenyon Martin (10.9: the lowest of his career but still better than Green), Kevin Love (21.0), David West (13.1), Darrell Arthur (14.5), Chuck Hayes (17.0), Dirk Nowitzki (12.8), Tim Duncan (18.9), LaMarcus Aldridge (12.5), Carlos Boozer (19.2). Those are the other nine projected Pfs in the Southwest and Northwest Divisions next year - of course FA may change some of these. Jeff Green is dead last. The average of those 9 is 15.5, so he's quite a bit below average. To ask him to go to 9 rebounds a game which would probably put him in the top half of this group is reaching . . .
@Kev
And those would both have been amazingly stupid trades.
"I can't see trading him ever crossing Presti's mind"
this part makes no sense - no one is untradeable . . .
Michael Jordan was almost traded in 1990 (the year before he got his first ring) to the Clippers - Kobe was almost traded to the Bulls - trades can and do happen - we have of alot of improving to do - if the right offer comes along, it would be silly NOT to do it . . .
if the right deal comes along, he's gone . . .
@Marcin Gortat (aka the Polish Hammer)
Sounds good. There's an 8:10 from Orlando to OKC. Be on it.
@Vince
Kudos! What a terrible problem to have! ;)
@Kev
Hmmm. Or playing Durant at SG was just another reason why P.J. was fired. I don't think anybody expects a 6'10" player to be a SG but I guess I really don't know. We also have JG at PF b/c we don't have anyone better and he might just end up being a very solid player at that position in the coming years. Somehow, I just don't think that Presti has already given up on that idea. I think the reason why Presti drafted them is b/c they are versatile and he thinks that where ever they are they play they are going to do very well. And, they havn't shown anything but that up until now. I expect JG to push his rebounding numbers up next year and be just what we end up wanting at PF and I expect him to learn how to defend PFs b/c he relishes those challenges. Any way, in a short amount of time, we will know a whole lot about Green b/c the 3rd season is so damn important to a player's development and I can't see trading him ever crossing Presti's mind. I could be dead wrong, but I hope I'm not b/c I want to see Green here for the rest of his career (I'm selfish like that).
In regards to the Green talk, let's try and remember that Jeff Green is:
1) age 22
2) heading into his third season in the league
3) coming off a season in which he averaged 16.5 PPG and 6.7 RPG, and signifcantly improved over his rookie year
4) by all accounts, a high-character guy who plays hard and is a credit to the team
Is he out of position? Possibly. Is it something the team will have to deal with? Possibly, maybe probably. But the advanced defensive metrics rate Green an above-average defender (2.4 Defensive Win Shares, for example). I'm surprised by that based on my perception, but I don't think I or anyone here has established that he's a poor defender.
But who cares? He obviously works hard in the off-season (his 3FG% went from 28% to 39% in a season) so he's likely going to improve. The idea that we should move him now because his value is "high" neglects the fact that his value will likely be higher if he puts up a 19/9 this season, which is a reasonable projection. And if we can get a legitimate big man down the road, that can help cover any struggles he may have in the post.
That's also the point of Presti's plan of stockpiling assets. We have picks coming, we have size developing, so there's a good chance we'll get a guy (whether Ibaka, Mullens, or the 2010 picks) who can spot him 15-20 minutes a game and/or in defensive assets.
Long story short -- if Green is the biggest worry going forward, man, is OKC going to be good.
Hey, it's me. I want to come to OKC. Sign me up. I want to smack down on that punk Pau Gasol.
I have enjoyed the topic and the posts. IMHO, the most glaring need we must address in free agency is a light-'em-up scorer on the second team. Right now, we must leave in either Du-rant or Uncle Jeff to have any legit scoring option in the second rotation. Fewer minutes for our stars will insure they are fresher in the 4th quarter and help them develop into lock-down defenders. While some of our young guys might step up to the plate and develop into a Eddie House or Ben Gordon, I'm not betting on it for next season. Who can we get that fills the second unit scorer role...and will sign a two year deal?
I spoke to Desmond recently, and he indicated to me that he wants to come back and further, he expects to come back. Let's don't forget the importance of veterans in the locker room. Can we start a re-sign Desmond petition? BTW - I bleed Sooner Crimson. We need Desmond!
I've also heard that the Pistons who just fired their coach (Dumars is completely screwed up) are hot for Lamar Odom and Ben Gordon.
Seriously, how do you fire Flip Saunders and Rick Carlisle, then hire Michael Curry, and then let him go after one season when you saddled him with an unhappy Iverson???? Dumars is screwed in the head.
He's almost as screwed up as Steve Kerr. Not quite, but close.
So if Booz and Okur are staying put, that means it will be harder for the Jazz to keep Milsap. I think the Jazz should be shopping Boozer immediately. Try to trade him and tell Milsap on the side that they are doing what they can to clear up salary for him.
Boozer would be welcome on a lot of teams for just the remaining 1 year of his contract.
@J.G.
ha ha . . . he's not crazy . . .
Boozer and Okur are not opting out of their contracts with the Jazz...
That means more people will be in contention for Gortat...decreasing our chances of getting him. It also makes next years Free Agency that much more massive. I bet we don't end up getting rid of our expiring contracts and we try to catch some mid tier players next year FA.
Chas :We don’t know what Green’s ceiling is yet so we wouldn’t have the knowledge to sell high on him even if we don’t think he fits the team well (and Presti really believed this, then why would he draft KD and JG in the same year?). Jeff’s a really strong guy with incredibly strong shoulders. If he learns from Collison, I think he could be a monster on the boards and if the Thunder are telling him that he needs to work more on his inside game then there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he will work over time on it.
I really hope that in the next couple years KD and JG can take a lesser load of the playing time. We keep talking about not needing a back up at SF b/c KD uses up 40 minutes a game, but that can’t persist forever. He’s so young, I’d just hate to watch him deteriorate b/c we never let him take breaks. 34-36 minutes a game would do wonders for him for the rest of his career and I think Presti has already worked that into his plan.
No one knows why Presti drafted them in the same year - the team was basically gutted with the departure of Allen and (eventually) the departure of Lewis. And remember, at the time, some thought that KD was a shooting guard - he even played a lot of shooting guard in his first 1 1/4 years in the league. Maybe he thought that they could play both the swing positions simultaneously. Obviously, we know now that KD can't stay with shooting guards, so JG has to slide to PF FOR THAT REASON. That's the only reason why he's there . . .
Any word on if Damien Wilkins exercised his early termination option...?
I mean that WAS a possibility...
...yeah, I know, I know.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Manu Pierce Jr... that's great... I'm going to start calling him that.
We don't know what Green's ceiling is yet so we wouldn't have the knowledge to sell high on him even if we don't think he fits the team well (and Presti really believed this, then why would he draft KD and JG in the same year?). Jeff's a really strong guy with incredibly strong shoulders. If he learns from Collison, I think he could be a monster on the boards and if the Thunder are telling him that he needs to work more on his inside game then there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he will work over time on it.
I really hope that in the next couple years KD and JG can take a lesser load of the playing time. We keep talking about not needing a back up at SF b/c KD uses up 40 minutes a game, but that can't persist forever. He's so young, I'd just hate to watch him deteriorate b/c we never let him take breaks. 34-36 minutes a game would do wonders for him for the rest of his career and I think Presti has already worked that into his plan.
@Kev
agreed
I think he goes in the overpaid category - I think Gortat is better and cheaper . . .
what about a guy like Anderson Varejo for the Thunder? He's all energy and can play C for a versatile team like ours. If the price is right, he can do a lot of the things we need and not demand to be part of the offense.
Yeah he's your link:
http://www.nba.com/jazz/news/09_boozer_opts.html
They've got to let Millsap go now.
Reported by the Salt Lake Tribune. I bet Detroit ends up with Millsap now. He's a good building block for a team with that much cap space.
KingGondo :Boozer just opted in for his final year, apparently. Heard it on a forum, awaiting confirmation from the ESPNs and Yahoos of the world.
pretty much expected - given the market and his injury the last year . . .
now let's see what happens with Milsap . . .
Boozer just opted in for his final year, apparently. Heard it on a forum, awaiting confirmation from the ESPNs and Yahoos of the world.
@KingGondo
I think thin at the three isn't necessarily a bad thing for us right now. With new guys like D.J. White possibly deserving more quality minutes at the 4, Uncle Jeff could slide over in some of Durants bench time and run 3 occasionally or have Thabo run 3 in the wake. Thabo can defend both spots easily and it's not like he'd have to shoot more.
Throw out some crazy lines here and there to get guys in the game. The team's versatility should help a lot of deserving guys find minutes that they otherwise would lose.
I was just reading SLAM's draft grades. They aren't too high on Vaden.
But really, it's hard to be high on 2nd round guys. I keep forgetting to include him in our draft in my mind. It's my bias, but since I don't know much of him, and there isn't much online to watch of him, so I just dismiss him altogether.
Actually, in my mind, I think of Harden as our draftee, and the other two as Tulsa consolation prizes.
I'd be very very happy with Gortat for 4/24mil. He's worth it, I guarantee it.
I don't think we need J.J.Redick anymore. I did, but now we have Vaden for 1/5 of the price, and he does most of the same things. Redick has had trouble being the gunner off the bench that I thought he might be, I think Vaden can be that guy.
Vaden will likely get a 2 year contract for about 8ook per year. Much cheaper than Redick's high first round salary.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
I'd also prefer Desmond, if not mainly because we have so few veterans who the rest of the team will follow by example and who could positively impact the future of the franchise.
Gotta have veterans on such a young team if you want to turn the corner and a great hustle-guy like Mason is always the kind you want.
Plus, Desmond is still better than Graham. Take that, Mr. "I get the biggest applause out of Gallagher-Iba when I walked across the stage and they announced my name at graduation."
But I don't hold grudges. :)
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
And between the two, I prefer Desmond for his leadership ability anyways. Agreed.
@J.G.
I doubt Joey will sign anywhere for more than $1-$1.5 million, we're pretty thin at the 3 behind KD, too.
But I'm probably just nostalgic for the Big 12 championship/final four teams... We don't need to turn into the Bobcats of Oklahoma and start signing only OU/OSU guys.