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Wednesday Bolts – 6.3.09

by Royce Young on June 3, 2009 at 8:06 am 64 Comments

Sean Deveney still has OKC taking Hasheem Thabeet (I think he’s the only one), had this to say about James Harden: thunderbolt232“James Harden, Arizona State. Harden is approaching this draft as if he is a top-five pick. And he might be. Certainly, word has spread that the Thunder will take him at No. 3 or the Wizards at No. 5. That feels like smokescreen information, though. Given the fact that the Wizards could trade their pick, and that Oklahoma City, too, is weighing its trading options, it seems that Harden would be wise to work out for some fallback teams later in the lottery.”

Hey guess what? A mock draft!: “Oklahoma City Thunder – James Harden: Many had Harden a lot lower than what I picked but James Harden is the goods. The Thunder are quite pleased with the way Westbrook has developed at the PG position and to under cut him by drafting another PG would just mess everything up (look for them to sign a free agent to play back up) Harden gives the Thunder options at shooting guard, he can score, he can handle the ball and he can create. I can also see Harden handling the ball for extended periods of time as his career continues, kind of reminds me of a shorter Paul Pierce.”

The Blazers are eyeing Stephen Curry: “Don’t be surprised if the Portland Trail Blazers trade into the lottery, looking to acquire Davidson’s Stephen Curry. The way I hear it, the Blazers (currently picking 24th) are nosing around to trade up and have Curry in their sights. Enough teams are willing to deal down that this is a real possibility. And it would be great for Curry in this regard: A long-time NBA scout told me months ago that the ideal situation for Curry is to play point guard on a team with a shooting guard who can also handle the ball. That would allow Curry to spot up some, and maximize the impact of his shooting.”

Seems like everybody compares any sleeper picker now to Russell Westbrook. Therefore my Google alerts go crazy, but the story only has one teeny tiny mention of Russ. For instance, SLAM this week: ”[Terrence Williams] isn’t going to be the guy to light up the scoreboard every night and he isn’t going to be the guy to dish out 15 dimes. He’s going to be the guy that fills in the holes wherever they spring up. If Augustin and Wallace are on the floor, he lines up at the off-guard spot and plays solid defense. If Bell is in, TWill can shift to the 3 and bring help on the glass from the perimeter. Williams is likely the closest thing that a scout will find to a utility infielder in this draft and is a guy who can impact the game without dominating the basketball. Also lets not forget what happened last year with a super athletic guard who had question marks about his scoring ability but excelled on the defensive end and was a pretty good playmaker; Russell Westbrook anyone?”

Ty Lawson is falling down draft charts: “Ty Lawson is coming off a rough week: Some GMs didn’t like him in the combine setting, he measured the shortest of any point guard in the draft, and there were questions about his conditioning and a potential toe injury. Put all that together and Lawson seems to be the one guy slipping on a lot of boards. Two GMs had him ranked as high as sixth on their point guard list, but a number of others had him much lower, with two GMs ranking him 10th and one GM ranking him 11th.” He’s already taken a pretty good hit in Joe and I’s revised Big Board which is coming soon.

The draft is overrated (Insider): “But Insider’s D.R.A.F.T. Initiative (Data-Related Analysis For Truth) crew has been poring over draft data for months, analyzing draft picks and their subsequent careers, and we’ve arrived at a surprising conclusion: The NBA draft isn’t that big a deal. That’s because, in any given year, there isn’t enough talent to give many teams any hope of landing a star, let alone a reliable backup.”

Sounds like LeBron James had similar surgery to what D.J. White had: “James underwent a procedure Tuesday at the Cleveland Clinic to remove a benign growth along his right jaw line. The five-hour surgery was performed by Dr. Frank Papay to remove the tissue from the parotid gland, which produces saliva … Operations in that region often take such time because the parotid is located in a delicate area of the head that is surrounded by many nerves and blood vessels.”

Thunder players talk playoff memories: “Back on the east coast, Durant and Green grew up in Washington Wizards territory. Green, for one, attended a pair of Wizards-Cleveland Cavaliers first-round playoff games not too long ago. “Just the atmosphere and the intensity of the playoffs, it was a sudden change,” Green said. Green said he’ll always remember watching classic videos of a young Magic Johnson, who as a rookie led the Lakers to the 1980 league championship over the Philadelphia 76ers. Durant, meanwhile, said he thinks of one thing when the playoffs come to mind: Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals between the Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz, when Michael Jordan captured his sixth league title by hitting the game-winning shot with just under six seconds to go.”

In the TrueHoop Playoff Smackdown, I had climbed to as high as 12th before the Conference Finals, but with an ill-advised pick of the Cavs, I’m back down to to tied for 18th. I’ve got the Lakers in 6 here, but it seems like everybody else does too. Even the President.

I wrote a little thing about Blake Griffin last week for Kevin Arnovitz of Clipperblog. Just thought some might like to read it: “When most think of Blake Griffin, they think of “powerful,” “strong,” “skilled,” “aggressive,” “No. 1” or “Beast.” But when I think about him, I see that annoying little kid that used to run around and climb on everything during baseball practice. We all called him “Blakey” and everyone was always asking him to get out of the dugout.”

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Kev
Kev 5pts

You are overestimating what Curry did against good teams

44 against Oklahoma (Elite 8 team)
29 against Duke
26 against St. Mary's
44 against NC State
27 against WVa

his only subpar game against decent competition was 13 vs Purdue

and unless you have watched him play, you can't just assume that the only reason why he averaged 5.6 assists is because "he was probably kicking it out of double and triple teams" . . . the guy passes the ball ahead in transition ; he finds the open guys - for the talent that was around him, I don't know how he racked up that many assists. He was the ONLY option they had last year - the guy is a point guard - you have to see him in aaction to judge that. Again, from what Ive seen form BOTH players, his point guard ability superceded the PG ability of RW.

And as far as Rubio is concerned, I put him at #3 due to all the off court nonsense . . . I wish he would just stop it - either you're playing in the NBA or you aren't . . . it didnt bug me a few weeks ago, but I can't stand this "picking my team" (see Kobe Bryant, Eli Manning) garbage . . .

Nix
Nix 5pts

@Kev
I'm guessing there's no way I can get you to move Rubio over Curry?

I definitely moved Curry up on my board. I think his height is what did it for me. I was under the impression Curry was around 6'0. I pegged him as an Iverson. He definitely proved that wrong being 6'3.

My number one concern with Curry is his defense.

-All the major moves we made last year were for defensive purposes (Drafting Westbrook, DJ White and Weaver; bringing in Thabo). I know we need offense, but at what expense? If we have a 1 that can't guard it's only going to allow more people in the paint.

I put Rubio above Curry because I think Rubio will ultimately be a better PG then Curry.

-I think Curry has a shoot first mentality. I don't see anything other then that from him. I would bet most of his assists last year came from kicking out of double/triple teams. I just don't put his PG abilities over Rubio.

I understand the argument would be that he has awful teammates and he still found a way to average 5.6 (also averaged 3.0 turnovers). I just think you also have to factor in the talent he played against.

I have NO doubt he'll be able to score at the next level, and I bet he'll be able to run a fast paced offense. I just don't see his PG specialties fitting our team. Or his PG abilities being enough to bump him over Rubio.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Ty
As Joe said, Bayless isn't even close to being worth the third pick. He doesn't fit any of our needs. He's too small to defend the 2, and has never been much of a distributer. Maybe if Portland wants to give up something along the lines of Fernandez and Przybilla, then we could talk. But none of their backups are going to buy Curry or Harden out from under us.

Kev
Kev 5pts

@Pennington

our lists are close . . .

as to your #5 - I don't even like to type the guy's name . . .

Pennington
Pennington 5pts

@Kev
My wish list
1. Griffin
2. Rubio
3. Curry
4. Harden
5. anyone but Thabeet

Joe
Joe 5pts

Bayless wasn't really mentioned in that first tier of players last year. It was OJ Mayo and Beasley and Rose. Then the second tier seemed to be Gordon, Bayless, Westbrook, Love etc; depending on who you liked. Bayless isn't quite as good a shooter as Gordon, and not quite as good a PG as Westbrook was expected to be. A true tweener. Much like a Jeff Teague in this draft.

But I was keeping an eye on him because Presti never tipped his hand. The point is that there is no way we trade our #3 for only Bayless. They would have to give up much more than that.

Ty
Ty 5pts

I don't know about you guys but i would rather take an Earl Clark before a B.J. Mullens.

Ty
Ty 5pts

call me crazy but the blazers want Curry and if we trade our draft pick for Jerred Bayless..... it might work becuase Bayless isn't a point guard he is reported to be a Ben Gordon type of player with great athleiticism. I am pretty sure last year everyone thought that we were going to pick him but passed to take Westbrook.

Nix
Nix 5pts

He also had no problems getting into the lane...

Kev
Kev 5pts

one think I like about him you know he's going to be a factor even if he doesnt shoot - you can't say that about most perimeter guys in the NBA . . .

Dustin
Dustin 5pts

I just watched my first video of Rubio.

He has no hop in his step when he shoots.

If he doesn't adjust that his shots are going to get swatted.

Did anyone else notice that?

Nix
Nix 5pts

@Kev
That's what I noticed defensively as well.

There was one point (one of his first defensive plays coming into the game) when he played the passing lanes and ended up finding himself contesting Carmelo for a 3. Melo made the 3, but what got Rubio over to him was following the passing lanes. A lot of his gambling comes from really being able to figure out what the offense plans to do.

Can you imagine him doing that against poor PGs? He's doing that against Kidd, D-Will and CP3...He'll destroy Telfair, Conley, & (insert lower tier guard)

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

Rubio's underhanded bounce pass will always blow my mind.

I mean, seriously, doesn't an "underhanded bounce pass" break the laws of physics?

Yeah, anyone who leads their entire league in assists AND STEALS, is not going to be a defensive liability.

Kev
Kev 5pts

my Rubio observations (watched 1/2 the USA contest and all the Germany game)

a) he has great decision making - usually when he turns the ball over, it's a technical error, but not an error in judgment. Example, usually, when you see a person drive in the NBA, and they're tightly guarded, they still throw up a shot and hope for contact. The great ones (Kobe, Wade, James, etc) get away with it because they are highly skilled. The marginal players all do it hoping for the same results. That's not basketball. I saw Rubio do this a few times and he always brought the ball back out or passed it out if he didn't have a good look.

b) Whoever said he was going to be a defensive liability is kidding themselves. The guy is ALWAYS active, and he's pretty disciplined on the weakside. His problem is that he gambles too much (reaching in).

c) The guy has to work on his finishing. One on occasion he has three attempts to finish (vs minimal opposition) and couldnt do it.

d) He gets a lot of love from his one handed passes. That's incorrect from a technical standpoint, but he's talented enough (see John Stockton) to get away with it .

My updated wish list

1) Griffin
2) Curry
3) Rubio
4) Harden

Curry is a much better shooter and you don't have to worry about Rubio's buyout and unwillingness to go to a certain team . . .

Clark Matthews
Clark Matthews 5pts

I've rewatched some of that Gold Medal game and some things that stood out to me:

1. Rubio's free throws are really flat. They go in, but they aren't pretty. That is kind of a good thing in that it says he has a flaw that can be corrected.

2. No one mentions Rubio's rebounding, but he seems to have a nose for the ball. Kind of like Chris Paul in that regard.

3. I'm not even to half time and he's made several passes that made my jaw drop. Had his teammates done their part, they would have been highlight reel.

Clark Matthews
Clark Matthews 5pts

Nix :(He’s 17 in that video)

And going up against Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Jason Kidd. Talk about trial by fire.

Nix
Nix 5pts

basising is not a word

Nix
Nix 5pts

@J.G.
It depends on how big of a risk you see it as.

I think he's better now then Calderon was when he played Euroball and Rubio is 18. So I'm basising Rubio off Calderon. One thing to note is that his 3pt% went up drastically this year and he had a broken hand throughout.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

Make that breaks, good grief it's a typo day.

Although, brakes could also work. Hmmm...

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Nix
But how many times can you go out on the limb before the branch brakes?

That's right folks, we're not just about Thunder basketball here at the Daily Thunder. You also get to contemplate the finer intricacies and conundrums of life with proverbial anecdotes, too.

Nix
Nix 5pts

@J.G.
Definitely makes sense...and that's probably exactly what Presti is trying to figure out.

I come down on this.

When I first saw RW at the beginning of last year I thought he reminded me of Barbossa (Fast and gets to the rim). Then I really started to compare Westbrook to Wade's rookie year and I think that is a better comparison.

I think Westbrook was so focused on developing as a PG he failed to develop his jumpshot. No one can deny RW got better at the point as the year went on, but that's because he practiced it.

Also, I really think Rubio will develop into a star. The key in this is the development emphasis. I think Rubio's ceiling is FAR higher then Harden's.

Safe bet is drafting Harden. Going on the limb is drafting Rubio.

I go on the limb cuz that's where the fruit is.

(I say that everytime I catch a flush on the river)

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Nix
Yes, but does Westbrook fit all of the "Best SHOOTING guard" needs?

My biggest issue is not with Rubio at the point or Westbrook at the point (for now), my issue is how much of an upgrade at the 1 and 2 would Rubio and Westbrook really be, versus Westbrook and Harden at the 1 and 2.

If Rubio could be a 4.5 out of 5 point guard but Westbrook could only be a 3 out of 5 shooting guard, then is that really an upgrade over a 4 out of 5 point guard in RW and a 4 out of 5 SG in Harden, who could, you know, actually shoot threes from deep to spread the floor.

That's my dilemma, Nix.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Kev
Haha. Now I'm on board!

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Keith
Did somebody say TOE INJURY?!!

Why would you do that?

In all seriousness, if we've learned anything about toe ligament injuries, it's that they tend to...linger.

So either way, I don't see Lawson getting any benefit from what happened at the combine, injury or not.

Kev
Kev 5pts

an addendum to my "pure point definition" : a guy that is willing to get his TEAM the best shot trumps getting HIMSELF a shot . . .

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Crow
The toe injury is one of those maybes you hear about this time of year. It could be his agent spreading a rumor to ease GMs minds about the combine showing, or he could actually have a lingering injury that isn't going away. The problem isn't that he did terribly compared to everyone, but that he needed to show supreme athleticism to alleviate fears about size and his team's impact on his game. In college, the media was calling him the fastest guy in the nation, who could get past anyone he wanted at any time. The combine showed otherwise.

As for Rubio, I doubt his sprint would turn heads, and his agility would likely be about average for PGs, but he'd probably measure out as tall and long as Holiday. The thing is, teams aren't drafting Rubio for his athleticism. They don't expect him to be beating guys off the dribble and scoring 15-20 points per game. Teams are looking to draft Rubio to be the next Jason Kidd, someone who can score when open (coincidentally Kidd is a 41% shooter) but who makes great passes and decisions that get make the whole team better.

Kev
Kev 5pts

I liken his game to Nash - NO I'm not saying that he will be the next Nash, BUT he can play like him. Nash can score if he has to, he's dynamite from three point range, but he can run a team. Curry has the court vision and intelligence to run a team and find the open man. He HAD ro shoot last year because he was playing with a bunch of guys that could barely play Division 1 ball. Next year (with us hopefully) he has a bevy of guys to set up AND he can shoot.

Good discussion . .

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Nix
At this point, my fear of Rubio is exceeding my love of him.

Which means Harden is just about a lock at this point, especially if we can acquire other assets while getting him.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Nix
Wow, a "Hook" reference.

Well played.

@Kev
But Curry doesn't look to pass first. But unless you're saying that Curry is not going to be a shoot-first guard and is going to re-wire his playing style to think pass first when he gets an open look, then he can't be a pure point in your book. Right?

Again, I don't care if I have a pure point guard or a diluted point guard, just a good one.

Kev
Kev 5pts

of course :)

Nix
Nix 5pts

@J.G.
Ru-B-O Ru-B-O (fits all of those 'pure' point requirements)

Kev
Kev 5pts

IMO, a pure point looks to pass first. Paul can score with the best of them, but he looks to set up his teammates first. Ditto Williams in Utah. I think Curry fits that mold. I have seen both guys (Curry and Westbrook) play point for one year, and even though they were at different levels, one guy showed the things you need to be a true point, one didn't. Westbrook COULD improve, but then so could most folks - I'm only going off what I have seen so far.

Nix
Nix 5pts

I really think Presti is going to ultimately go with Harden here. He's the best fit and arguably 2-4 best player in the draft. I personally would prefer Rubio, but I just don’t see it happening. If not Harden then my next best guess is a trade no one would have predicted.

I definitely expect a trade within the first 5 picks of this draft. I would put big money on that.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

"after not having played the position" - typo, my apologies

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Kev
Actually, regarding pure points, I was using your previously established requirements for a player to be called a "pure" point. And Curry does not meet them. Remember the "played it his entire life" and "looks to pass first, not shoot" standards?

I don't necessarily disagree with your standards, but I do disagree that a guy who hasn't played the point his whole life can't be switched from a combo guard to a point guard and then become a "true" point or "natural" point after an appropriate transition time.

So if you're saying that Curry IS a pure point or natural point now after now having played the position for the majority of his basketball career and is definitely not a pass first guard...then couldn't, in fact, wouldn't, the same have to be said for Westbrook? Judging by your stated argument for Curry, the answer would have to be yes.

Though clearly Curry appears to be the better initial decision maker regarding turnovers and vision, at least in the NCAA's. No arguing there.

Crow
Crow 5pts

His sprint time was better than all the PGs rated ahead of him. What would Rubio score? I tend to doubt it would be impressive.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Keith I didn't know about the toe injury. It might be part of the reason for 17th on agility (though that is still top 1/3rd and way way better than T Evans). He did still finish 6th best on the sprint.

Kev
Kev 5pts

Bernard :i dont know if this has been discussed, but workout measure of Harden shows that he is not un-athletic at all.

we did that yesterday . . .

J.G. :@Kev Wouldn’t have helped or hurt him in anyway because it all would have been followed by either …AND or …BUT “…he’s 7′2 1/2.”
Slow, horrible vertical and weak results: “But he’s 7′2 1/2, he doesn’t need to be any of those things to change anything. He should be a top 3 pick.”
Fast, great leaper and strong: “And he’s 7′2 1/2, he should be a top 3 pick.”
And the assumption that Curry is not a true point is because, well, he’s not. He’s a scoring point guard, who has only really played point guard for one year in college and played shooting guard his entire life. I think he can be a great point guard in the league, but based off of MANY, MANY debates between you and I, a guy who has only recently played point guard and hasn’t grown up his whole life playing it, can’t be labeled a true point guard. Remember? (*cough* RW *cough*)
But like I’ve argued a thousand times, I don’t need a “true” or “natural” point guard, just an effective one.
Oh, and upside is why people would take Holiday ahead of Curry. Not that I necessarily agree with it, but that’s the reason. Higher risk/reward than Curry.

yes it was the NCAAs, but Curry had MUCH better decision making, court vision, and passing ability last year compared to RW's rookie year. Yes it was the NCAAs but he basically double teamed throughout . . .

to each his own - we just have to agree to disagree - I think he's a pure point, you don't - nothing wrong with that . . .

as to Thabeet, the guy has to be able to run the court - even lateral agility counts when you have NBA defensive three second rules - my point is by refusing to test, your agent is saying that he has nothing to gain, and there's nothing wrong with that, but it also means he has plenty of flaws. No one would compare him to the smaller players, but it would nhave been nice to see how he stacked up against the only other true center in the draft (Mullens) . . .

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Bernard
Check out the Tuesday Bolts and you might see just a smidge of discussion about Harden's results. Haha.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
You beat me to it. :)

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Kev
Wouldn't have helped or hurt him in anyway because it all would have been followed by either ...AND or ...BUT "...he's 7'2 1/2."

Slow, horrible vertical and weak results: "But he's 7'2 1/2, he doesn't need to be any of those things to change anything. He should be a top 3 pick."

Fast, great leaper and strong: "And he's 7'2 1/2, he should be a top 3 pick."

And the assumption that Curry is not a true point is because, well, he's not. He's a scoring point guard, who has only really played point guard for one year in college and played shooting guard his entire life. I think he can be a great point guard in the league, but based off of MANY, MANY debates between you and I, a guy who has only recently played point guard and hasn't grown up his whole life playing it, can't be labeled a true point guard. Remember? (*cough* RW *cough*)

But like I've argued a thousand times, I don't need a "true" or "natural" point guard, just an effective one.

Oh, and upside is why people would take Holiday ahead of Curry. Not that I necessarily agree with it, but that's the reason. Higher risk/reward than Curry.

Bernard
Bernard 5pts

i dont know if this has been discussed, but workout measure of Harden shows that he is not un-athletic at all.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

Kev :
someone please explain to me why Thabeet skipped the athletic testing????

Because he thinks that after most GM's read the 7 foot 2 and a half part, they skip the rest?

Kev
Kev 5pts

someone please explain to me why Thabeet skipped the athletic testing????

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Crow
I feel like the combine just hurt Lawson a lot. Everyone knew he was small, but they thought he was incredibly fast and quick. When it came out that he is just average (possibly due to a toe injury), all of a sudden teams realized he's probably not the guy they thought he was. Also, it hurts him that he played on, by far, the most talented team in college. GMs are probably thinking that much of his production had to do with that team, not necessarily his skill.

Crow
Crow 5pts

That is, I'd rate Lawson 4th or 5th best point guard in the draft.

Rubio- no workouts, none scheduled yet or at least leaked. Isn't going to happen this week. If it is going to happen next week it would probably have to be schedule already and if it was it would probably get leaked. He might well do none or just Sacramento and maybe a team trying to trade up if they are not afraid of the tipoff. June 15 is the withdrawal deadline.

Kev
Kev 5pts

Good points JG - but some of your post assumes that Curry is not a true point - I think that some GMs think he is, and that's one of the reasons I think he's a lock in the top 5 . .

I've read almost everything I can get my hands on with regarding Holiday and besides height, I can't see why anyone would pick him in the top 5 . . .

Crow
Crow 5pts

I'd rate Lawson 4th or 5th best but I am not that informed. 6th is fine. I'd guess the GMs that rated him 10th or 11th are whack. A good GM of a good team is likely to trade up to nab him. He might not be good enough to make a bad team good but I'd give him a very good chance of being fine on a good team.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

The GM landscape in the NBA is still rather disparate in terms of competence. I wouldn't be surprised to see a GM like Pritchard pull a deal like this off.

If Curry does fall past the Warriors, I'd be shocked to see him fall past the Knicks.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

I'd honestly expect Jrue Holiday to go before Curry, given the teams' philosophies that are in the top 5 as he's more of the defensive stopper/true point that so many people (and apparently GM's) crave above a lethally effective player like Curry.

The Kings are looking for more of a team general and stand-out defender than a scoring point, so I can't see the Kings taking Curry. And the Wizards could certainly use Curry, but the upgrade factor and the issue with them wanting to be competitive NOW means that's a no go. Then you have the T-Wolves at 6...now that's an interesting one but word is they like Tyreke Evans if available and, (Kev, here's the ironic part for you at least), the T-Wolves want either a "true" point guard (most teams don't see Curry as one) or a big combo guard that can guard multiple positions (hence Evans) instead of an undersized combo point.

So it's really the Warriors and the Knicks for Curry, either way. He definitely want drop past those two. Not top 5 most likely, but definitely top 8 at the very worst.

And Kev, I wish I could also not see Memphis passing on Rubio at 2 for that organization's fans...but between the advice Rubio's been given about the Grizzlies from Spanish team members who were former Grizzlies, his $7.5 million dollar buyout and the fact that it would be a TERRIBLE fit for him (Mayo and Gay are scorers who need the ball in their hands instead of spot-ups), I can see the Grizzlies passing or only taking Rubio to be used as a trade chip.

Prediction...Rubio WILL NOT be wearing a Grizzlies uniform. But hey, I hope I'm wrong for their fans.

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