We’ve spent the last month talking about what Oklahoma City will do with the third pick in this draft. So much time in fact, that it’s easy to forget that the Thunder have a second pick in the first round. I know, who knew?
So what to do there? Obviously, the 25th pick is directly related to what happens with the third choice. If the Thunder goes big at three, then they need to address guard issues at 25. If OKC goes guard at three, then they could take a big man or maybe take a guard opposite of what they took at three. Know what I mean? That’s not some big sports revelation there – if you draft a position with your first pick that fills a need, then you take something different with your next pick. Someone should let the Detroit Lions know that.
(If you really want to know what I really think about this pick though, I see the Thunder trading out of this pick or possibly taking another international player to stash away for a bit. Heck, you could even move into the middle-to-late second round and take another international project. Right now, OKC’s got a lot of playable assets and adding another player either pushes one of its current guys out the door or will leave the new guy stuck on the bench for a while. You can’t forget that the Thunder added Shaun Livingston, Kyle Weaver and D.J. White to its current roster last year and also has Serge Ibaka potentially ready for time. The Thunder depth chart could be getting really crowded, really fast. A good package deal would be for Presti to target his man – Harden, DeRozan, Curry, whoever – judge where he’s apt to go and send the No. 25 pick along with the three to move down to that spot and hopefully grab an immediate contributor in the process. I just don’t see the worth in keeping the 25 pick, unless a guy is there you really want or unless one of the current guys on the roster aren’t in the future plans (Kyle Weaver?). But hey, that’s just me. I’m all for upgrading a position and if you can do that with the 25th pick in this draft, then go for it.)
So based on what happens with the third pick, you’ve got to look position by position. Typically, when you’re drafting in the lower regions of a round, you’re either looking to try and fill a small need or maybe find something that could be a home run years from now. The Michael Redd’s and Carl Landry’s don’t come along all that often. So you need a sense of the needs at each position.
POINT GUARD
Current situation - Russell Westbrook/ Shaun Livingston/ Earl Watson/ Chucky Atkins
If the Thunder goes with Rubio, then point guard obviously isn’t necessary. But if OKC takes Harden of Thabeet or someone else, it needs to look for a quality backup point guard. Livingston is only signed through the end of next year and if he’s successful, he’ll be looking for a team that will make him a full-time point guard. If he’s not successful, then you’re looking for a quality backup anyway. Either way, it’s a position that needs depth. Right now there’s a log jam, but Earl Watson and Chucky Atkins have about as much chance to be in a Thunder uniform by the end of next year as I do.
Three that fit the bill:
Rodrigue Beaubois - I didn’t have him as a top 30 player on my big board because honestly, I didn’t know enough about him. But now, I see him as a definite top 30 player in this draft. His real value is that he doesn’t have to be here right away. Just like Serge Ibaka, Presti could take Beaubois and stash him for a year while he figures out what to do about Shaun Livingston. If Livingston is in the long term plans, you trade Beaubois down the line. If Livingston isn’t, you can bring over your backup point guard when you’re ready. And let me tell you, Beaubois is an impressive athlete – 6’2″, can leap out of the building (39″ vertical) and is a solid shooting point guard. He’s a little like the Euro version of Russell Westbrook, but he’s more of a true point guard. From what I see, pretty good player. And a cool name to boot.
Darren Collison - He’s an excellent defender, although undersized (6’0″). I don’t know how much of an offensive thread he’ll be at this level, but he has quality backup point guard written all over him. A roster spot would have to be cleared to make room for him, but would anyone really be all that upset with waving bye to Chucky Atkins and/or Earl Watson? That’s what I thought.
Patrick Mills - Mills is similar to Beaubois, but not as big. But he is probably quicker. He’d be a similar player to Collison in that he’d likely be playing behind Russell Westbrook for the majority of the time and doesn’t have the look at of a starting point guard, but he could be a nice contributor for sure.
SHOOTING GUARD
Current situation - Thabo Sefolosha/ Kyle Weaver/ Desmond Mason
Again, totally dependent on the third pick. If OKC goes with Harden (or Demar DeRozan or Stephen Curry), then it’s been addressed. There would be a lot of depth there with the pick, Thabo Sefolosha and also Kyle Weaver. But if OKC takes a big man early on or a point guard, then they could use the pick to find an outside shooter/scorer to fill that two-guard position. It’s a position that needs help. Statiscally, the Thunder had the worst production in the league coming from shooting guard. You’ve got a quality lockdown defender there in Thabo, but unless he develops a Bowen-like speciality shot, he’s not going to give that complementary scoring that the Thunder needs. Kyle Weaver has shown flashes but the jury is still out. So if you’re not going to find a guy that could start there, you need a speciality guard, someone that could complement what Sefolosha and Weaver bring. So if it really boiled down to it, the Thunder should go for a marksmen with this pick.
Three that fit the bill:
Jermaine Taylor - He’s a big body at 6’4″, gets to the rim with ease, but has a perfect shooting stroke. His game in college was more of the mid-range style, but he absolutely has the ability to back it up to the NBA 3-point line. I see him as a bit of an Eddie House, Leandro Barbosa-type player in the sense that he could give you instant offense of the bench – something the Thunder could definitely use. Last year when the first unit took a breather, you just had to hope the other team didn’t score any, because OKC sure as heck wasn’t putting it in the bucket. (Another player that’s similar to Taylor is Jerel McNeal from Marquette. Similar size, similar game. I also like Alex Ruoff from West Virgnia. Excellent shooter.)
Wayne Ellington – Ellington was one of the most efficient 3-point shooters in the nation last year. The major concern is that he’s got a bit of a windup on his release, so that could make it difficult for him to get good shots off. But the guy can hit an open look with the best of them.
Jack McClinton - McClinton literally has unlimited range. He reminds me a lot of a right-handed Michael Redd. Someone that is ready and willing to pull up from anywhere with the mindset to make it every time. The good thing about him is that he could easily roll over and play the point a little.
SMALL FORWARD
Current situation – Kevin Durant/ Damien Wilkins
Filled, thank you very much. Some scouts and analysts like OKC taking Omri Casspi here, but I really don’t see why. Sure, Kevin Durant needs a solid backup, but Thabo’s natural position is small forward and Kyle Weaver can even play there a little. And heck, don’t forget about Jeff Green playing some there. If you added a swingman that’s locked into that position, you’re putting a guy in basketball purgatory. He won’t see a lot of minutes because Durant will take up at least 75 percent of them. I could see Presti springing for a guy like Terrence Williams if he were available though. Someone that can play both the two and three, so that you’re not locked down into selecting a lifelong backup. Presti loves them tweeners and if he’s going for a small forward, that’s exactly what he’ll take here.
Three that fit the bill:
Terrence Williams - He’s a total intangible guy. He passes, he shoots, he scores and he rebounds. I would call him Brandon Roy lite. He doesn’t have quite the refined game and still has plenty to improve on, but he could contribute because he’s versatile. And every GM loves a versatile swingman.
Chase Budinger - He’s much like Williams but a little more athletic. Budinger played almost exclusively at small forward at Arizona, so it would take a little learning to grasp the two. And I’m not sure what his range extends to. But he’s a good player that finds ways to score and an underrated defender.
Danny Green - For some reason, I feel like three years from now we’ll be talking about how much of a steal Danny Green was and how it’s unbelievable he dropped all the way to the second round. He’s just a nice player. A good defender that can play two positions; a good shooter; a good passer; and a good rebounder. He’s just a good player. I think he’d fit in nicely with what Sam Presti is trying to build. A bit of a Thabo-type player, but with a pretty good shooting stroke. I think he’s a second round guy so it might be wise to trade No. 25 for something early in the second round to take Green though.
POWER FORWARD/ CENTER
Current situation - Jeff Green/ Nenad Krstic/ Nick Collison/ D.J. White/ Malik Rose/ Robert Swift
This depends a lot on what Sam Presti thinks of D.J. White. Nick Collison is a nice power forward, but not a starting man. He’s the type of veteran glue guy every team wants, so he definitely has value. Jeff Green plays both this and the three. The Presti Pick if he wants to go big here is to take a guy that can play the four or the five. There’s only a handful of true centers in this draft, so you’d either have to move up to get B.J. Mullens, or find a guy that plays bigger than he really is. A quality center would be ideal, but this far down, you’re not going to find much more than an international project.
Three that fit the bill:
Jeff Pendergraph - As close to a center without being one as you can get. He’s a solid 6’10″ with an extremely long wingspan. He’s more of a finesse big man, but he was a good rebounder at Arizona State. He was one of the top field goal percentage players in the country last year and he’s got a refined post game. With only two true centers in this draft, he might be a worthy pick.
Tyler Hansbrough - The problem with Hansbrough is that Oklahoma City already has him on the roster in Nick Collison. And I don’t think Hansbrough can Twitter quite like Nick can. But he’s going to be a good backup pro. And if he’s there at 25, he might be worth looking at just because he’s good value.
Taj Gibson – Gibson is an undersized shot blocker. He’s Tyson Chandler trapped in Jeff Green’s body. He’s not an incredible athlete by any means, but he’s definitely no slouch. He was one of the top shot blockers in the country last year and while a lot of his scoring comes from put backs and rebounds, that’s not exactly a bad thing.
To be on the smart side I see mason, chucky, and earl leaving the team, keep brooks, and get curry that give them points but still keep some d, mason wasnt really physical to me on d and not a good shooter, honestly chucky has been the father time of the team, love the guys support on and off the bench but you got to contribute to the floor and be able to be put in rotation to allow the starters some rest.
The list of above average talents on the team would also include Westbrook on rebounding. And White and Sefolosha both finish pretty well.
I think I'm almost as anxious to see what - if any - moves Prest makes in free agency as in the draft (unless, of course, the draft would involve a trade for a significant veteran).
We're still a year away in the process of just ridding ourselves of bad contracts/unproductive players.
@Joe
I'm with you, man! We have to have the threat of the long-ball to free up our "weapons" in KD, RW, & UNKIE JEFF. It will take the rest of the league 20-30 games to catch up to what we about to bring!(I hope!)
I believe...(cheese)...
but 4 real though...
@Crow
good point here. The "new" player should be able to create and distribute the ball w/o any threat to our beloved KD.(also run the point in situations.) !!!BTW! hit the long-ball at the HIGHEST rate of any of our squad...This has to be Harden or Curry, right?
Going back to the idea of midrange vs. threes: I notice that when Weaver is in the game, and there is a defensive rebound or turnover, Weaver runs directly to the corner for a three in transition. Thabo did the same quite a bit, and so did of course Wilkins. Desmond didn't because he doesn't take that shot.
The point is, if that person was a Curry or Harden, that would scare the hell out of the other team. With Weaver and Thabo, not so much.
Scotty knows that that is the most efficient shot in the game. It's as short as a midrange straight away, but has the extra multiplier of 1.5.
Scotty needs more guns. I can totally expect the three to become a bigger part of the arsenal if we can replace Weaver and Thabo at the two for quite a bit of the SG minutes. To me, Thabo and Weaver, Livingston and perhaps a third PG become part of a wing bench mob that are used situationally where defense is needed.
Praised for his mid-range game Richard Hamilton is one of the very lowest on high percentage takes. I wouldnt want him, especially on this team.
We need to pick up Harden with #3, grab a good role player at #25 and pay Gortat the $6million he'll want, which is fine for a starting center and can even be moved to the four if Krystic or Collison comes in for more size. If we can stay active and financially smart when FA starts, we can upgrade our bench, which has a lot of dead weight at the moment and several have expiring contracts.With Harden/Equivalent quality 2 guard and Gortat, we will have a mean starting five, but can we produce when they rest?
Among free agents with the highest high percentage possession usage (this time with foul shots) are Kleiza, Ariza, Odom Milsap Varejao N Robinson Turkoglu Alston
and Carney
Love is strong on this.
That was more a blend issue and probably more an issue with the other guys.
Allen and Lewis were outside oriented but this season Allen is at 64% HIGH PERCENTAGE INSIDE OR 3 POINT SHOTS AND l%EWIS IS AT 69%.
Crow :Krstic’s job is partially to lift a big out of the lane to allow Westbrook, Durant and Green to drive the lane of course. But it has got to happen and end up in a higher % of inside shots and foul shots, not as many mid-rangers. If it doesn’t then the design didn’t work.
excellent point . . . I had hopes for Krstic to be a legit starter but he doesn't provide enough on either end to warrant a starting gig . . .
Well, pretty different at 3 of the 4 spots.
Noah is #1 in the league on inside shots among those who qualified at 94%. Chandler was #3 so maybe Presti sees this need. Recently.
On the Lakers Gasol was 58%, Bynum 65%, Odom 72%, Ariza 76%, Fisher 55%. Bryant only 40% like Durant but his cast is very different.
Krstic's job is partially to lift a big out of the lane to allow Westbrook, Durant and Green to drive the lane of course. But it has got to happen and end up in a higher % of inside shots and foul shots, not as many mid-rangers. If it doesn't then the design didn't work.
Start Collison over Krstic- at least in a static model- you are improving the frequency of high percentage shots. Start Weaver over Sefolosha you are doing the same. That fits with what I was seeing / feeling otherwise. With a new guy at SG this will be an important criteria. Same at point.
Green is fine or even helpful compared to White (or last season's version) on this. But Collison could also be an option there and make a big contribution especially if you stay with Krstic for his height/ lane clogging.
To some extent you got to balance starters with backup lineups.
I figured the 76% - acatually surprised its not more, seemingly all his shots came on dives off pick and rolls or offensive rebounds. I think he can help our defemse. The Magic never let him post up, which may mean he has no low post offense. I love his defense though - which is NBA proven, unlike Thabeet's.
Yes, we do agree a fair amount. I wouldn't be surprised if we have one or two fairly major trades this summer, as we have guys playing now that may fit better on other teams.
Seems we agree a fair amount Kev.
Gortat is pretty good for his role and current salary. But he isn't a team quality up=shifter on his current team. Team offense is worse with him on the court (because he is certainly not Howard and not that strong on his own either). The defense is about the same and that is a compliment for a backup. But take him out of the Magic system and put him in the Thunder's and who knows if he raises the level of the defense or just swims along at everybody else's level. By the way 76% of his limited shots are inside.
hopefully Westbrook is working on his outside shooting . . .
Does Green have a low post game?? If so, he is not using it . . .
We need a low post game BADLZY, of course, so do a lot of teams . . .
So Westbrook-Durant-Green-Krstic on the court together looks like a bad design or at least bad shot choice to me.
Durant can be your main mid-ranger option. In lieu of him it might be Livingston or the new guy or Krstic / White. It is not looking like Westbrook or Green. You need one, maybe sometimes 2. Probably don't need 3 on the court together. That is going too far.
hey Crow, what do you think about Gortat???
interesting numbers . . .
we know why Krstic is 31% - all he did was shoot 18 footers . . . Krstic is okay, but we need a big to get the tough points inside . . .
At the individual level Green is at 58% from 3 or inside, Westbrook 53% Durant just 42% and Presti's choice of a starting big, Kristic- 31%. That is not a high high-percentage core of a starting lineup.
Collison 65%, Weaver around 72%, Sefolosha around 58%. White 44%. Livingston 25%.
That's why we have to add AT LEAST one if not two legitimate three point shooters - your forwards (Durant and Green) shouldn't be taking all of your three point shots . . .
agree with all your points - we attempted a lot of those mid range shots due to bad decisions (Westbrook) or just lack of three point ability (Westbrook, Weaver, Thabo, Livingston). The one thing Atkins was supposed to do well was shoot threes, and he FAILED miserably . . .
The main legit reasons for the mid-ranger- occasionally- are to keep the inside or 3 point games going, efficiently and as a late on the shot-clock bail-out or in last resort response to great teams who deny a good share of the inside and / or 3 point game.
Thunder last on team eFG% mostly due to too many mid-rangers and too few 3 pointers or alternatively more inside shots, though they are pretty average there.
Don't like the age, defense, salaries and Seattle affiliations of Allen & Lewis, fine. But they probably end up having to replace them some day. Unless they get a stud inside.
Add % of shots that end up in foul shots in a crude way and the Magic re-take first place. Denver third. Lakers at I guess good enough 13th. Aided by 5th best team eFG% and a strong defense. OKC improves to 5th lowest. So I take it the inside emphasis )instead of the 3 pointer) hasn't really worked yet. Too many times ending in the far far less efficient mid-range shoot. Basketball purists may like players who can hit that shot and it is a necessary piece to the puzzle that can't be completely eliminated but nobody I mean nobody should be "trying" to take that shot.
I hate it when players take the 19/20/21 foot jump shots - even worse is when a guy steps on the line when he's shooting a long jumper . . .
I think the midrange game is useful at times, you have to have that shot in your arsenal if you have a big guy or two waiting for you at the hoop . . .
Only NY was higher than the Magic at 68% from 3 or inside.
D'Antoni simply understands this better than most. To quote Fat Bastard- the mid-range is crap.
Chris :Do you guys think Westbrook wont get it done on D or more that he just didn’t and that there is still potential for him being that he was a rookie learning a new position on the fly?
you have to hope so if you are a Thunder fan - Brooks will have to get on him - hopefully Westbrook is looking at tape this summer and maybe he comes back as the stopper he is supposed to be . . .
last comment (#49) is easy to see from us - we are weak behind the line and we have no post game . . .
Do you guys think Westbrook wont get it done on D or more that he just didn't and that there is still potential for him being that he was a rookie learning a new position on the fly?
The Lakers won but the inside-out design of the Magic might be better- at least on paper. 67% of team shots from hig-percentage 3 pt land or inside vs 57% for the Lakers. Thunder at 50%. Only 3 teams lower (Suns, Raptors and Pistons)
A guy like Curry might be even more valuable to a team in need of such a shift than other teams already more optimized. His heavy 3 pt attack that you might not call ideal (though some would and I might be one of them) in the abstract might help team balance. Harden would help some but not a s much- if he remained a more moderate usage guy and Curry were allowed to be high minute high usage. But maybe Harden would be allowed to be an even bigger offensive force on the team and maybe Curry would be quite as big. It comes down to team design.
To be more precise shift 7-8% of total shots from mid-range to 3 point land and the Thunder would be like the Lakers... on shot distribution. This is huge- but doable. Will Presti / Brooks do it?
If the new guy takes the #2 spot in the offense then Green and the others may have to adapt to some extent or move on.
Using nba hotspots it looks like the Thunder shot distribution is pretty balanced left-right and pretty similar to the Lakers. The Lakers just shoot better. And maybe get those shot under less duress?
If they take a SG (or a PG) they better take one who likes to take and can hit shots from spots and parts of the shot clock that compliment and doesn't overalp / compete too much with Durant.
Harden and Pendergraph played on a successful emphasize the 3 ball or getting inside team.
good points Joe - a Livingston and McClinton backcourt would work well - Livingston guards the bigger 2 guard while manning the point - McClinton guards the small speedy point while Livingston guards the bigger two guard . . .
I still think the team has a need for somebody who can play the backup pg who is smallish, but has very quick feet defensively. We don't have anyone on our roster who can consistently stay in front of the little quick guys like Tony Parker and Barbosa. Watson used to be able to when he was younger, but not anymore. As Kev said, Westbrook didn't do it, and Thabo and Weaver and Livingston are all too big. If McClinton can be that guy, and also hit some shots and get some minutes bringing up the ball he would be a nice guy to have. He is small, but powerful, and very fast. Eric Maynor could do it, but he won't be there at 25; same with Flynn and Lawson. Maybe Collison as somebody mentioned.
I like Lawson, Pendergraph, and Hansbrough - any would be acceptable at #25 . . .
I still like McClinton . . .
there are a few other SGs would be alright
Guys in draftexpress top 20 who might fall out of top 15:
Jennings, Daye
don't want 'em
16-20 I'd have some interest in all but especially Lawson and Hansbrough
After that I might trade down for Pendergraph or Danny Green if you anything meaningful for it. Otherwise just take your prefrence.
And you are right Livingston shot well in very limited action. Team results were quite weak but I wouldn't trust either much. Will be an interesting case to see how it turns out.
Westbrook above average at drawing fouls.
Yeah I was coming back to say Weaver (and Mason) as glue guys
scratch Westbrook from defensive list - he might be talented defensively , but he didn't really show it last year . . . I'd change Westbrook to Weaver . . .
the rest of your list is pretty accurate , but I'd add Livingston to shooting mid range - he was very good there . . .
sorry, my computer is acting up