Setting the Bar: Nenad Krstic and Shaun Livingston

weaver,westbrook,livingston,harden, sefalosha can all play both guard positions, so really its only split by who they guard and who guards them, so i wouldnt be surprised if it comes down to matchups and game situation, hopefully with our added firepower offensively with harden and white we will have double digit leads and the backups see more minutes.

Alright, good we can agree on some things.

Happy belated birthday personal and blog and best wishes for the future.

@Crow
I like Ryan Hollins a lot. I would have loved him.

Krstic got a guaranteed $16 million over 3 years.

The market shifted somewhat after Presti's big mid-season move with few bigs getting much money. Wilcox had to take 1 year $3 million. What would Krstic have gotten this summer if Presti hadn't bailed him out of Russia? I doubt much more than $3 million a year, very unlikely 3 years $16 million.

Which was the best way forward, when you had Collison already and were drafting a young center again? And went and got E Thomas when you didn't have to?

Presti is very likely to trade Collison.

Gortat, if you really wanted him might have been obtainable for a bit more per year than Krstic.

Or if you wanted a job-sharer you could have gotten Ryan Hollins for $2 million a year.

Krstic is alright but at that price? Not that good a decision, so far.

It is hard to say - by the numbers- how much Livingston played PG vs SG or just wing. He played 22 minutes with Atkins, 58 with Watson, 68 with Westbrook. If he was not the PG with these at all then only 12 minutes of 189 could have been at PG. And he played 87 with Weaver adding to the uncertainty.

But maybe someone with a good memory of the tape can estimate.

Probably last season reveals little of what Livingston would do as a regular PG backup. Both his assist rate, turnover rate, scoring efficiency, defense, everything. His role was different then compared to his Clipper PG past. And maybe his future or maybe not.

Don't you think that the starters' minutes are going to be toned down? The only other players that play 38-39 minutes a game are the Hornets (Paul, West) and that's because they have a sorry bench (thereby causing them to break down at the end of the season). I know that our starters need playing time but we are still developing everybody on the team.

I have selfish reasons as well. I want to see Durant play when he's 40 so limiting the wear and tear is key.

@Vince
Hey don't ever feel bad disagreeing. I am wrong far more than I am right.

My thinking is that Shaun is the primary point behind Westbrook. He'll probably see 10-14 minutes a night there with Russ on the bench I imagine. And judging from what we saw in summer ball and at the end of last year, Scott Brooks is looking to use Livingston at the two and three as well. So if he get 10 extra minutes at those spots, I'm thinking he gets around 20-25 minutes. Maybe 25 is on the high side, but I think that's a goal for Livingston in terms of being healthy. He says he's 90 percent and if so, he ought to be able to play some serious minutes.

I think Livingston is ahead of Weaver on the depth chart. And with the 70 games hope, that's more a wish of not avoiding injures, but being durable enough to play in back-to-backs and such.

Again, with the numbers and the things I set, keep in mind these are things that should be goals the player should shoot for. They're supposed to be realistic things and if they hit them, it's a major success. Maybe Livingston's stuff is a little ambitious but I think the organization has high hopes and plans to use him quite a bit.

I guess this is what I mean about stats are of the following stats who would you want shooting the 3 pointer to win?

player a had 9 seasons under 30% from 3 and 32.7% for career
or
player b had 2 seasons under 30% and shot 34.1 for career

I have to agree with both Vince and Crow. Asking for Livingston to be a major contributor is far too much. There are only going to be 10-15 minutes available each night at PG, almost nothing at SG (both Thabo and Harden being there), and KD plays almost the entire game at SF. And let's face it, Livingston has always been a pass-first, middling offense kind of PG. I think him staying healthy is a legitimate goal, but 25 minutes and pre-injury form (even better as it has been pointed out) is too much.

Livingston is a prime example of my quandry. We know he's still young and that he has talent, but improvement at this point is probably just back to a baseline. He's only been so good when healthy, and he's been in the league for a while now. I don't think he has it in him to be much better than we've already seen.

On Krstic, I don't think he should look to play some in the post, I think he should be given a mandate to play a great deal more in the post. Here's the thing. As a spot up shooter, Krstic does very little for the offense. He doesn't hit threes, and doesn't really hit at a very high percentage in the first place. If we are passing out on drives it should always be to Durant or Harden (or Green if he's beyond the arc). Also, Krstic simply isn't quick enough to do anything with the ball away from the basket other than shoot. As such, he simply has to play close to the basket where he can serve a useful purpose in our offense.

Did I mention that Krstic is a beast?!?!?!?!

The turnover rate comparison is per possession used rather than per minute. Russell uses more possessions per minute and is thus is higher on turnovers per minute but equalized Shaun turns it over at a higher rate per possession use.

Stats are fun. I will admit that if I miss a game I don't just look at the final score, I will check the stats also. But, and this is my opinion, I don't need stats to tell me that Livingston is the best passer on the team, or that Krstic is not as effective on his jumpshots as Durant. Watch a game, and you can see it. When Green hit that game winner against the GSW, I really didn't go "oh crap, he only shoots 35% from mid-range". I thought he can hit that shot. I agree with Royce on what he is saying or where he is "setting the bar" for these guys. I can see it happening, no I don't have the stats to prove it, but from what I watched last year, both of these guys could improve and actually end up raising the bar.

Well I went 40 some days without commentary.

So here is a little, since Royce asked for a sound off.

Westbrook penetrates (shoot 48% inside on average, not terrible but it is on the low end) but this time things don't work out so he looks for Krstic (41% on jumpers, "quite a weapon") or Green (35% from mid-range)... if he is smart he looks back for Durant or Harden first and second all the time and to those starting bigs only as a last resort or if they are moving right to the basket.

Krstic a bit weak as a rebounder by rebound rate... only to be exceeded in that weakness by Green.

The right pair choice by Presti?

Livingston the best passer on the team? Potentially but he finished 4th on assist rate last season and not much ahead of Thabo. His assist rate was less than half his peak rate. Livingston did have a very low turnover rate in those short minutes last season though. But who has a higher career turnover rate Livingston or "turnover prone" Westbrook? Livingston by 15%. After parts of 4 years. If he returns to the assist rate of old but keeps the new low turnover rate then he'll be a fine passer. But it will take both.

Royce, I love you and your blog, but if Livingston plays 25 minutes a game this year then someone better got hurt. I see 15 tops at the 1 and maybe 5 between the 2 and the 3 (although those minutes have to come from Thabo, which I would question at this point).

Your projected stats are in line with his career stats (almost exactly) in about 26 minutes per game, though his shooting percentages are much lower than your hopes. I don't think you can reasonably expect much improvement (certainly during the first half of the year) when he's played 12 games in the past 33 months or so. I'd also point out that he's never played more than 61 games BEFORE the major knee injury.
Everything you're looking for is an improvement from his pre-injury days and I don't think that's realistic. I think if Livingston stays in the rotation ahead of Weaver it's a successful year for him this year, and then maybe in 2010-11 we can start thinking of him as a unique player who can cause some mismatches.

@Chas
That's like using a wheelchair for the fun of it!

I love how Shawn is a mismatch, for basically everyone. If he ever finds a way to shoot the 3 effectively, he'd be a nightmare to guard. But until then, we'll have to take our mismatches on his post up game. Which is fine by me really. If a PG is defending his post game, he'll just shoot over him. Shawn has the skills to make those back screen passes if a 2 or a 3 is guarding his post game. And no 4 or 5 can keep up with his quickness when he's healthy.

We're such an odd mix of talents sometimes. Shawn has arguably the best back to the basket post game of anyone on our roster.

Costanza would not agree.

@Bryan
Ha! You're right. How did I forget this? I've been calling for that for months.

Good points all, but you forgot that Krispy needs to shave his head. I'm only interested in one stat: zero hairs!!!

Also,

I hope Kristic kills a man this season.

I think signing Ollie showed a lot of faith in Shaun. They didn't go after a 'future' backup PG in a PG heavy draft. Presti could have mustered all sorts of dark magic to land a quality point guard (again), but he didn't. The Thunder are good at understanding what 'isn't worth it' and they'll figure out when 'it's not worth it' to over play Livingston.