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Setting the Bar: Serge Ibaka and Byron Mullens

by Royce Young on September 18, 2009 at 10:28 am 28 Comments

We took a look at a list of goals for the entire Thunder team a couple weeks ago. But let’s get detailed. Let’s get specific. I’m going to dig in and hit on some individual goals for a few players that would define a successful season. So what meters for success should we set for Serge Ibaka and Byron Mullens?

Serge IbakaSerge Ibaka Thunder

Don’t become Mo Sene. In other words, don’t become best buds with the Gatorade jug. Sene had potential but never found a way onto the floor unless OKC was down 30 with a minute to go. Ibaka showcased a far more polished game in the summer than Sene ever displayed, so that’s encouraging. He’s just 20, so I understand if he gets put on the end of the bench to learn and work. But the point is, don’t get trapped there. Show some improvement throughout the season, forcing Scott Brooks to give you time. Whether it be four minutes at the end of a game or 15 meaningful ones in the first half, just get some time on the floor. Sure, I’d love to see him explode and have a big year, but let’s be realistic and keep our minds set on player development.

Learn help defense. This will be a major goal for Byron Mullens as well, but with Ibaka’s length and absurd athleticism, there’s no excuse for him to not be swatting shots from little guards that try and come to the rim. He was late helping during summer ball, but that’s understandable as he learned the pace and feel of the game. But like I said, if there’s one thing he should do well, it’s rejecting shots from the weak side.

Figure out the post. Much like D.J. White, Ibaka has a nice face-up game. And much like White, he needs a baby hook or some kind of move on the post. He pulled out a couple turnaround jumpers in Orlando and Vegas, but he needs to consistently get on the block and try and score. Ibaka has ridiculous tools, but he’s the type of guy that’s going to have to work a little to harness them. If he’s a worker, he could be special, especially offensively.

Ideal stats: N/A. I just don’t know what to put here. On one hand, I’d love to see a season of 15 minutes a game with seven points per game, four rebounds per game and two blocks a game. But what if he just plays in 10 games and see a total of 50 minutes this year? So I don’t know what to peg him for. My wish would be for him to get at least 10 minutes a game and while in, shoot over 50 percent, grab around 3-4 rebounds and block a shot or two. That would be ideal. Will he have that chance? To be determined.

Byron Mullens

This record is broken – post game. Again, like everybody else, find some offense in the post. I wrote extensively about this before, so I don’t feel like I need to go into too much detail but here’s the idea: You’re 7-1, you’re long, you’re skilled. You should be able to score in the post. Don’t settle (and settle is the perfect word) for jumpers. Put in the work and round out your game.

Byron Mullens Thunder

Help. Again, like Ibaka, figure out how to peel off and help. During five games in Orlando, Mullens had one blocked shot. That’s just… bad. He’s slow rotating, he’s apprehensive going up for the block and he’s lazy defending the paint. This is a guy that has the body and the skills to play like Tyson Chandler, but he’s choosing to be more like Yi Jianlian.

Become and aggressive rebounder. During summer ball, Mullens was hesitant on the glass. He didn’t go up strong for rebounds and it looked like he’d often release too early on the defensive end. He didn’t often fight for offensive position and was easily pushed around. He should be at least pulling down a good number of rebounds instead of having guys like James Harden and Russell Westbrook out-board him. It’s about effort and right now, Byron appears to want to finesse his way instead of working his way.

Ideal stats: N/A. Just like Ibaka, hard to say. Technically he’ll be listed behind Nenad Krstic and Etan Thomas at center, but will he actually be that? Or will it be a rotation of Collison, Thomas and White playing behind Krstic? Mullens has said he wants to be a power forward but that’s not his role here. If I were wishing, he’d see about 15 minutes a game, score five points and grab seven boards a game with 1.5-2.5 blocks a game. That’s very wishful thinking so I think we’re probably more in line for a handful of appearances, some time between Tulsa and OKC and a lot of frustration while he hoists 22-footers.

Give me your thoughts on the matter. I would like to hear them.

More:
Russell Westbrook
| James Harden | Thabo Sefolosha | Nenad Krstic and Shaun Livingston | Jeff Green | Nick Collison and D.J. White

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nickel24
nickel24 5pts

I am a Buckeye fan and season ticket holder, so watched him play several games, and honestly cannot see where Mullens will ever fit into the NBA. He cannot play power forward (where he got this in his head is a mystery) and has neither the skills, strength or mindset to play center. He has nice touch and that is about it, 7 foot and cannot block shots or rebound, and forget defending. He left for money which was good for him and his family, and to be sure even a few more years in college would not have made him a better NBA player, so leaving was the right call for him. He will D-League for a few years and then more than likely head over seas where they play the style he seems to want to embrace.

Crow
Crow 5pts

You can argue Presti is set up to get his next draft haul and compete for 2010 free agents and he can try that... within his roster spot limit and within the constraint of giving people playing time and the constraints of free agents not wanting the threat of lots of competition for their playing time from existing players or more young players who might have the long run favor of management and the constraints of how much they are willing to spend in free agency before Presti's boys ask for big bucks and possibly walk out if they don't get it all after being allowed to become big minute, big point guys already and wanting even more individual success so they can make the most money or walk if a certain player or as likely or more the shoe company paying him $70 million, some of which may be bonus based on circumstances, wants him in a bigger market. Challenging balancing act needing to be performed ahead.

Crow
Crow 5pts

In the next draft, if they keep all their picks, they need to target a pure PG and 2 guys 6-10+, at least one a traditional center, probably emphasizing defense over offense though both would of course be nice.

Unfortunately there are few pure PGs next draft and the choice of bigs who can play center instead of PF isn't dynamite.

I'd consider trading 1 or all the draft picks if the right vet were available. I doubt Presti will but that difference of perspective has been noted before.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Mullens starts out as 4th or 5th string center. They plan to move him up to 3rd string next season. Then move to 2nd string. I won't project beyond that yet.

Could he really play PF? They didn't let Swift try. Maybe Mullens is even more suited to it but they probably won't let him try either.

Whether they should, I don't know enough yet.

Crow
Crow 5pts

How much they try Ibaka or even White at center will be interesting to me and will affect the immediate future of Collison and might further assure the long-term future of Green here or not depending how they perform at PF and compared to while at center and compared to Green at PF. I'd focus primarily at team results and Adjusted +/- but obviously the individual statistical data will be a part of how it looks and plays out.

Crow
Crow 5pts

For both Ibaka and Mullens my advice to them- and the coaching staff- is focus on learning position defense first. Help defense is an advanced art and you need to know how to defend 1 on 1 well before you divert too much of your attention to help. And emphasizing help defense first with young guys doesn't seem to work well. Trying to do both at the same time is too much. Guard your man well first.

Crow
Crow 5pts

My mistake I was focused on Ibaka.

7 rebounds in 15 minutes is too much for Mullens.

So take what I said about Ibaka as my statement on Ibaka and not as response to Anil.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Anil, Royce said "On one hand, I’d love to see a season of 15 minutes a game with seven points per game, four rebounds per game and two blocks a game."

It was 7 points in 15 minutes, which is not impossible. That is Jeff Green to DJ White point per minute range.

And it was just 4 rebounds in 15 minutes. That is about Nick Collison range or a little more.

Presented as pie in the sky, this combination is not that outlandish.

The block rate goal was excessive as you say though.

Then Royce went on to say: "My wish would be for him to get at least 10 minutes a game and while in, shoot over 50 percent, grab around 3-4 rebounds and block a shot or two. That would be ideal."

Ideal might have been not the right word. Good enough or satisfying enough might be how I'd put it. Those are standards I don't have trouble with.

Chas
Chas 5pts

Wait! Guff?!

Steve H
Steve H 5pts

Ibaka is the biggest mystery on our roster. He might never develop beyond a raw, athletic big. He could turn out to be Kemp/Amare good. I don't know if getting limited back-up minutes with the Thunder this year, or starters minutes with the 66ers is the best way to develop his talent, but I have a lot of conficence in the guys that are going to make that decision. As for Mullins, I can't see him playing any minutes with the main squad this year- guy has potential, but is nowhere near NBA ready for now.

Chas
Chas 5pts

Heh heh. Bunch of nit pickers out there.

Royce
Royce 5pts

I've taken more guff for the darn "Setting the Bar" posts than anything I've ever written. Possibly deserved, but still.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Anil
I'm confused. I didn't set ideal stats for these guys.

And I guess I should have explained everything in much better detail. Like I said, I didn't intend for this to be an ongoing, linked set of goals for each player part of the bigger picture. Just separate individual meters. So don't look at it as adding up points for each guy. Especially because some will see less playing time for others.

Again, it's IDEAL stats. Seven boards a game in around 15 minutes is CLEARLY wishful thinking. And I prefaced it with that. If I were dreaming, that's what I'd see for our 7-1 big man.

Anil
Anil 5pts

Oh, and one more thing. I could be wrong, but you have the team's ideal scoring averaging at 96.5 ppg I believe, excluding the numbers you want to see from Mullens and Ibaka. I assume you are going to want another 25-ish from KD too. I think 130 points per game is maybe just a little bit TOO ideal.

Anil
Anil 5pts

Love the blog but be sensible on the block shots, if they were blocking shots at the clip you think is ideal they would be the top 2 in per minute stats in that category, with the lone exception being chris anderson maybe. Also 7 rebounds/15 minutes is ridiculous, thats a better clip than Dwight Howard and...probably everybody else in the world since dennis rodman.

dj
dj 5pts

Serge Ibaka's athleticism reminds me so much of a young Shawn Kemp. Here's hoping he has twice the smarts, as good a career & half the children.

ben Fanning
ben Fanning 5pts

the reason for Thomas is to make them earn it....

Keith
Keith 5pts

I think both guys will be in Tulsa other than a few games throughout the season where Brooks gives them a little tryout for the year after. Mullens, as much as I liked him coming out, has really had me sour on him since. The fact that he says he wants to be a PF (translation: wants to have a significant size advantage and not work as hard down low) is very disconcerting. He's not Lebron who can play any position well. He's a 7 footer without the quickness or range to play away from the basket, but without the will to fight inside. The fact that he was the 24th pick in a weak draft should be lighting a fire under him to prove himself, not sit back and give up on the potential he was drafted upon.

Joe
Joe 5pts

No doubt Mullins and Ibaka will have to either earn their minutes over established contributors like Krstic, Collison and Thomas (not to mention D.J. and Green)or wait for injuries to one or more of the above.

Mullins will see a lot of nights on the 66ers team bus, and Ibaka will also, but less so I think. I also think if Brooks gives the minutes I expect to Livingston and Harden, Weaver will see some time in Tulsa.

Vince
Vince 5pts

It's going to be really tough for Ibaka to get consistent minutes. If you look at the 4-5, and give Green 35 minutes, Krstic 30, and Collison 20, you've only got 11 minutes left over for Ibaka, White and Thomas. If you cut Krstic a few and let Green play the 3 a bit when KD's out, you could maybe split White and Ibaka for 10 a piece. (I'm not counting Mullens, as I just don't see how he could possibly crack the rotation this year. I haven't heard one positive thing about his current game besides the fact that he's tall, which Mullens himself doesn't seem too psyched about.) I really think this year that Ibaka and Mullens are going to be 10-12 games/50 minutes kind of guys who are (hopefully) starring in Tulsa. They're both just too raw to get minutes this year and I do think that this is an important season in terms of laying the groundwork for a playoff run next year.

One thing that these individual projections have done is really show what a tough job Brooks is going to have this year. We like nearly every player on this roster in different ways for different reasons. We want to see them grow, and I imagine Brooks and Presti do, too. But there just aren't enough minutes and it's going to be interesting to see how Brooks handles that. It's going to be even more interesting to see how Presti handles this problem from now until the draft next June, with 5 more picks coming into the logjam along with the rights to Hardin.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

during preaseason i think we will get to see them before they are shipped off to tulsa barring injuries to another big

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Brett
Especially because you might have a chance to sit really close. Could be fun.

Brett
Brett 5pts

@Royce
Absolutely. It's getting harder and harder to temper my hopes. I KNOW these guys will be great in a few years. I have to learn to wait (you'd think that as an NY Jets and OSU football fan I'd have waiting down by now...)

I'm thinking this might be a good year to drive up the Turnpike for a couple games this year. Getting to watch Mullens, maybe Ibaka, and even Weaver/White would be fun.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@Brett
Me too. Whether he develops those skills I mentioned in OKC, Tulsa or in his driveway doesn't matter to me. Just as long as he gets better.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

Ibaka is the one guy I'm looking forward to seeing the most. I'm looking forward to watching Harden start his career. I'm looking forward to seeing Jeff and Russell and Kevin improve from last year. But the one guy that excites me the most is Serge.

His athleticism amazes me. If there were no winners or losers at the end of the game, I'd still pay money to see an athlete display their skills, and Serge has as much athleticism as I've ever seen in a guy his size.

I realize that this year will be all about learning the pace, learning the competition, learning the grind of 82 games and the travel that goes with it. I realize that there will still be a communication barrier that he'll have to work with. I realize that he's still raw in lots of ways and will be unsure how to act and react on the floor in most situations.

But my hope is that he gets enough minutes that the game slows down for him and he can manage his learning curve. I can hardly imagine how fun it will be to watch Serge play once he's as comfortable with the NBA game as he needs to be to let his athleticism work for him.

Brett
Brett 5pts

I want to see Mullens spend a lot of time in Tulsa this season. I don't see how there is a chance he gets much playing time here. Even though he's our 7 footer, he's just not physical enough and doesn't have the touch of Krstic. Let him play in Tulsa as much as possible, get some good competition against adult players his size and see what he needs to do to improve. I really hope he's been working on adding bulk.

I have no expectations of him contributing for the next two years, so I think Tulsa works out. Playing time is better than sitting on the bench and only getting work in practice.

Trackbacks

  1. Outside The NBA » Blog Archive » LeBlog James, featuring the new All-OTN Team says:
    November 2, 2010 at 12:02 pm

    [...] last year and I’m too big a fan not to keep him around. I want to start this by directing you to this Daily Thunder piece. How hilarious is it that he was grouped in with Byron Mullens? How ridiculously conservative do [...]

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