Building a reputation for Thabo

Well, he's my favorite player. Hope he can feel me cheeringl du er sexig kanna vi ga ut pa en dadel.

I almost forgot to come back and check this thread.

It's not that I'm saying Russell is a good defender despite what you say Kev. I think it's clear that he has potential, but isn't giving defense the focus he should. Which I can understand, if his focus is on shifting to a pass first point guard, then I'm cool with it. A guy can only focus on so much at once. We see KD and Green have made big strides defensively in their 3rd year, and their positions aren't as hard to learn how to play.

What I wonder about is coaching priorities. The two best examples that are easy for comment style discussion are his rebounding and switching. I've heard Etan and Brooks both say in this past week that it is a priority that all 5 guys rebound the ball. While they didn't specifically state "offensively rebound the ball", it makes me wonder where they are drawing the line. Maybe it's acceptable to them to let Russell go for offensive rebounds, especially since he has a knack for it. Well, that obviously puts him out of position to get back on transition defense. Maybe he gets a -1 in your system for that, but maybe in Brooks system he doesn't.

Also, I'm sure it depends on matchups for defensive switching, but maybe in your system Russell gets a -1 for letting a teammate switch to his man during the pick and roll. Is that something Brooks is allowing though? Is that switch acceptable? What is his opinion on going over or under the screen? Does it depend on the matchup or the offense that the opponent is running?

It's hard to tell what Brooks wants from him until we see him develop more.

and to further elaborate - I know that my rating system is subjective (and amittedly crude) - but I think it's much better than us say "I think he's a good defender" with the only think to base it on is steals and blocks . . .

I will probably write a longer piece explaining my system in detail at a later date . . . I love comparing players with numbers, and the system lets me do that :)

- to add to that, assuming (at best) RW's best game is +4, compare that to Ollie's best game - which is +13 . . . and considering the fact that usually Ollie plays about 1/2 the time of Westbrook, then you see comparison clear as a bell . . .

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@J.G.
If I were to really do it right, I would have to start accounting for all sorts of defensive plays that the stats don’t show.*Such as only counting plays when Thabo is in the game with Roy.*When the offense was set up in a half court game so that Thabo has the full assignment.*Transition offense that happens because someone turned it over and Roy gets an easy fastbreak dunk without Thabo on the scene.*Transition defense where Thabo is on the scene.*Those situations when the offensive player makes a move to force a defensive switch to a matchup that he wants. A good defender won’t allow the offensive player to force that matchup.
And so on.
I know you’re joking, but being a stat expert for any NBA team would be a dream job, and I don’t necessarily love working with stats and numbers (though I do it enough in my current job already). But I’d do it in a heartbeat for the Thunder.
One other thing. It’s hard to establish a measure like this because you have to take into account the coach’s priorities. Ultimately, a player listens to his coach and tries to abide by that gameplan. I know Kev has his rating system for defense, and the last time I remember him explaining it, it sounded really well thought out. However, Russell scored a -2 against the Heat last game, yet coach Brooks claimed that it was Russell’s best game as a whole and that he was most proud of his defense. He even went so far to say that he thought Russell’s good game started with his focus on defending well for 94 feet. So is Russell scoring a 10 on coach Brook’s defensive scoring system? Or is it just coach speak? I think it’s quite possible that Brook’s defensive priorities and Kev’s defensive priorities for the PG position are different. So, if it’s that different, what is the only fair way to accurately rate Russell’s defense? It has to be according to the coach’s priorities, because that is Russell’s goal.
It’s these kinds of intricacies that make stats meaningful. Otherwise we’re just interpreting stats as our own mindset sees fit, and that may not be entirely accurate.

good points about Russell Westrook - let me elaborate on it, because it's a great source of discussion.

Yes, I noticed that Russell was picking up 94 feet, and he hadn't done that previously. That helps RW become more aggressive. But really, at the NBA level, all that does is take another 2-3 seconds off the shot clock and put a little pressure on the guard. RW didn't force a turnover by doing it. I think Brooks was just using coachspeak. He's never said RW stinks on defense even though that's my opinion. Obviously, if a player is performing badly in some way, the coach (usually) isn't going to berate him in public. I know that someone on the coaching staff sees what I see

1) not getting back on defense
2) giving up ALOT of penetration without picks (shocking given his youth and athleticism)
3) getting lost in transition
4) going underneath picks
5) switching off much more than anyone else on the team

actually, according to you, Brooks said it was his best defensive game as a whole - but his best game this year (on my rating scale) is like +1 (sorry I am not on my home computer so I can't check). So it could be close to his best game this year, but his best this year is only about average for any other player. IMO, he's got a long way to go.

Jax Raging Bile Duct :
I think it would be a good idea for a few stat heads to establish an average stat line for a player, and then choose a few benchmark defenders to see how they all compare.
For example…
Brandon Roy season averages:
44% FGA, 38% 3FG, 24 points, 2 turnovers

Roy vs Battier:
41% FGA, 36% 3FG, 19 points, 3 turnovers
Roy vs Sefolosha:
29% FGA, 20% 3FG, 16 points, 3 turnovers
etc.
Over time you could show the standard deviation from a player’s normal offensive production. Then you could also find other defenders who defend in a similar way statistically. So if Battier is a no-brainer for 1st team defense, and Thabo is similar statistically, you could make an argument using those comparisons to a player with an established reputation.
Of course, that would take some work, and there may be a better idea out there (or some good tweaks to this one), but surely there’s a Thabo apologist with some time on their hands… right?

I've got a stat and a site that charts a version of what you are talking about. I will do a post on it this weekend if I get time.

...at the moment

@The DON (AKA your favorite poster’s favorite poster)
Hope you are right... but it will be hard to displace Thabo in the starting lineup... and Harden makes so much sense coming off the bench, since we don't have a back up PG that can create plays.

KingGondo :

f5alcon :
Once harden becomes a starter, thabo can be that much more aggressive because he wont have the minutes to get really tired

I actually really like Harden off the bench, as a scorer/distributor. Keep Thabo as a starter!

This season, yes. But Eventually Harden will come into his own and his talent will be hard to keep out of the starting lineup

@DeWayne
I had seven once. That was a dark day.

@KingGondo

I agree! Thabo starter, Harden 6th man!

Off-topic comment to follow:

Is anyone else excited about the possiblities of 5 Updates on DT today? There are 3 so far, with pre-game and post game entries fortcoming (hopefully). It's so encouraging to see all the excitement about this team. I've been reading DT since about 2 weeks before the draft this year. I would have been here sooner, except I didn't know it existed. I'm sure glad I found it though. Royce runs a nice blog here, and the comments are, for the most part, well thought out and interesting reads.

I actually asked Thorpe at ESPN to help give Thabos some recognition--granted it is just a "chat" but still here was my question and his answer:

Alex: Dallas, TX
Did you see Thabos Sefolosha pick Wades pocket and take it coast to coast? Hopefully Thabos starts to get some national attention--he has to be in consideration for best wing defender right?

David Thorpe (12:04 PM)

You are exactly right. I've been a fan for years.

spike :@DSMok1

What does defensive rating measure? Jason Kidd is a top 10 defensive guard? Dirk is the 3rd best defensive forward? Jeff Green AND Kevin Durant are top 10 defensive forwards?
Seems like it has some funky results.

The formula was created by Dean Oliver. The results could easily be anomalous this early in the year; it's a tiny sample size. It should approximate the defensive value of the players so far this year, though. The equation is here: Basketball on Paper

f5alcon :
Once harden becomes a starter, thabo can be that much more aggressive because he wont have the minutes to get really tired

I actually really like Harden off the bench, as a scorer/distributor. Keep Thabo as a starter!

It seems to me that Thabo's value lies in his ability to alieviate pressure on the other four defenders. It's not like the team can completely forget about help defense or crowding the lanes, but having Thabo on the floor delays those rotations and reduces the need for double and triple teams.

And I think this gives the Thunder a distinct advantage over team's who's best scorers are at the 1,2 or 3 and in Thabo's size range. This is why the Thunder can play well against teams like the Lakers (minus Gasol) and Heat (with O'neil somewhat contained).

However, team's who's strengths lie elsewhere, like the Clippers for example, are a tougher matchup for the Thunder, because they don't play into this advantage quite as much.

Tonight's game should be really interesting, because last time, without having to guard Carter and Lewis, Thabo was able to concentrate on help defense and cloging passing lanes to deny Howard the ball. Tonight, he will have his hands full, and the front court will have to carry a bigger load.

Once harden becomes a starter, thabo can be that much more aggressive because he wont have the minutes to get really tired

If he continues to get 32+ minutes a game Thabo will probably end up in top ten in steals (10th), and probably top ten among guards in rebounding (3rd currently) and blocks (5th currently). He'll get plenty of notice if this happens, though he'll have to be considered a SG.

With the way guards are dominating the league right now, having a player like Thabo to stop the ball and defend the wings may be more important than a shot blocking big man.

The only stat that will get Thabo recognized is our record. If we get in the playoffs Thabo will be considered for the all defensive 2nd team. If we don't, he won't. It is unfortunate because everyone who watches the Thunder understand that he is an elite defender and should be in the top 10 discussion. Until we reach the playoffs it will only be discussion and speculation. Perhaps this year.... more likely next year. Glad we locked him up.

Wow, yeah that answers a lot of questions I had. Just in watching the guy, I was wondering how he could come off the elbow all the way to the opposite wing and still get a hand in a shooters face. When you're a quick as he is and you got a wingspan like that it does make some sense.

I know KD's length bothers people as well now that he's actually getting after it on the defensive end. I'm not sure who it was shooting on this particular play last night, but KD just stood there and put a hand way up high to contest it. They flopped hoping for a call, but I don't think they realized he never left the ground so the contact would have had to be initated by them. They also didn't get the call, so at least the ref's were watching.

@justin
Haha! Well done!

Investigative stat-journalism at its finest!

@justin
You're probably right, but since Thabo's height without shoes was listed at 6'6 (per ESPN), and the average wingspan for someone at 6'6 without shoes is 6'10 (standing reach average at 8'7 and a half inches) per draft express, that would mean he has EXTREMELY impressive length.

Here you go: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Word-on-the-Street-Early-Entry-Deadline--Last-Update-1036-PM--1355/

"Thabo Sefolosha was surprisingly not invited to the physical-only portion of the NBA pre-draft camp, but DraftExpress has managed to obtain his measurements taken by an NBA team that worked him out last week in Orlando. Sefolosha measured out at 6-7 in shoes, 207 pounds, with an astounding 7-2 wingspan and 8-11 ½ standing reach."

Nailed that one :)

Thabo's wingspan is definitely over 7'

Thabo's standing reach is a bit short of 9', probably around 8'11". His wingspan is probably around 7'2", but I'm guessing there. His length is well above average for NBA small forwards, much less shooting guards. His length was highly publicized in the Chicago media when he was drafted, with enough digging you could probably find something in black and white. If considered a SG he's probably the longest starting SG in the NBA.

@DeWayne
I'd honestly think 7'0 is a bit of an exaggeration, but 6'10 would not surprise me at all. As anyone who has followed Thabo since his days as a Bull...or the 2006 Draft class, only a fool would/has said that Thabo doesn't have the wingspan/length to guard 2's, 3's and even some 4's (I'll give everyone one guess who that person was).

@DeWayne
In an interview with Scott Skiles on Fanhouse, I believe Skiles was quoted as saying that Thabo had close to a 7'0 wingspan but besides that article, since he came from Europe before the big institution of the Pre-Draft Combines in the last 2 years, I haven't been able to find any solid measurements on his wingspan.

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2007/04/23/playoff-revelations-thabo-sefolosha/

@DSMok1
What does defensive rating measure? Jason Kidd is a top 10 defensive guard? Dirk is the 3rd best defensive forward? Jeff Green AND Kevin Durant are top 10 defensive forwards?

Seems like it has some funky results.

Thabo is listed at 6'7", but does anyone know what his wingspan is? At 6'7" he's a big SG and about the size of an "average" SF so I can see why he can guard either of the wing players. I hear about his length being a problem, but I couldn't find his wingspan anywhere.

Also, does anyone know if they have played a Westbrook/Harden/Thabo backcourt when resting Durant?

It's very hard to get on the all defensive teams these days. Guys who aren't actually good defenders (Wade - gambler and uncalled fouler, Lebron - consistently guards nobodies and roams but has some big blocks, Josh Smith - great weakside blocker but poor man defender) will get on the team simply because that's who everyone wants to see. Even Kobe, who I admit is a good defender, doesn't much guard top opponents unless he has to at the end of games. Do any of those guys really deserve top team honors over guys like Thabo, Battier, or even Rondo? No, but I think it's going to take more than getting the word out. Voters are going to have to actually think about who does what, and that almost never happens.

@J.G.

Right,it's kinda weird. It's like he's out there wondering "where is a superstar i need to be shutting down right now?"

and when he's on the floor vs. a team that has no such player, thabo turns invisible and extremely obscure

But again, with most players, its the other way around, and I much prefer someone that performs great against good players as opposed to vice versa

@The DON (AKA your favorite poster’s favorite poster)
Agreed, if the other team is without an elite scorer, watching Thabo elicits the oddest feeling or irrelevance I've ever experienced in a game.

Luckily 20-25 NBA teams all have a great scorer!

Here are this year's guards and how Thabo stacks up defensively, by "Defensive Rating":

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=0Sj3K

If thabo had that ONE redeeming value as an offensive player, like Bruce Bowen with the corner 3, he would be disgustingly incredible

I just feel like when we're facing off against a team who doesn't feature a 25ppg+ wing scorer, he becomes very useless

Luckily, WHEN not IF, we make the playoffs, chances are we will be playing a team with a premier wing player sooooo in the end thabo I suppose is very valuable

@Dooney

Ha!

But if Crow did it, at least you know it would be done right. Those kinds of comparative stats aren't immediately available on the aggregate, so one would have to compile them all individually and do all the aggregation themselves. It would be a lot of work.

@J.G.

If I were to really do it right, I would have to start accounting for all sorts of defensive plays that the stats don't show.
*Such as only counting plays when Thabo is in the game with Roy.
*When the offense was set up in a half court game so that Thabo has the full assignment.
*Transition offense that happens because someone turned it over and Roy gets an easy fastbreak dunk without Thabo on the scene.
*Transition defense where Thabo is on the scene.
*Those situations when the offensive player makes a move to force a defensive switch to a matchup that he wants. A good defender won't allow the offensive player to force that matchup.

And so on.

I know you're joking, but being a stat expert for any NBA team would be a dream job, and I don't necessarily love working with stats and numbers (though I do it enough in my current job already). But I'd do it in a heartbeat for the Thunder.

One other thing. It's hard to establish a measure like this because you have to take into account the coach's priorities. Ultimately, a player listens to his coach and tries to abide by that gameplan. I know Kev has his rating system for defense, and the last time I remember him explaining it, it sounded really well thought out. However, Russell scored a -2 against the Heat last game, yet coach Brooks claimed that it was Russell's best game as a whole and that he was most proud of his defense. He even went so far to say that he thought Russell's good game started with his focus on defending well for 94 feet. So is Russell scoring a 10 on coach Brook's defensive scoring system? Or is it just coach speak? I think it's quite possible that Brook's defensive priorities and Kev's defensive priorities for the PG position are different. So, if it's that different, what is the only fair way to accurately rate Russell's defense? It has to be according to the coach's priorities, because that is Russell's goal.

It's these kinds of intricacies that make stats meaningful. Otherwise we're just interpreting stats as our own mindset sees fit, and that may not be entirely accurate.

These stats also don't show how many of these points were scored on James harden. He had a hard time with a few of those guys. Those stats actually might be even more impressive if they were specific to when Sef was actually guarding them.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

...and speaking of numbers, what is the over/under on consecutive posts by Crow in response to your request? I'd put it at 9 and probably take the over, personally.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
What are you doing, Jax? You could have used this idea (and the time if you had to do it) to become a defensive stat expert and get hired on by the Thunder?!

And I'm only half-kidding with that. If the Rockets pay undisclosed amounts of money to their specialized statisticians...is it really that crazy?

I think it would be a good idea for a few stat heads to establish an average stat line for a player, and then choose a few benchmark defenders to see how they all compare.

For example...
Brandon Roy season averages:
44% FGA, 38% 3FG, 24 points, 2 turnovers

Roy vs Battier:
41% FGA, 36% 3FG, 19 points, 3 turnovers

Roy vs Sefolosha:
29% FGA, 20% 3FG, 16 points, 3 turnovers

etc.

Over time you could show the standard deviation from a player's normal offensive production. Then you could also find other defenders who defend in a similar way statistically. So if Battier is a no-brainer for 1st team defense, and Thabo is similar statistically, you could make an argument using those comparisons to a player with an established reputation.

Of course, that would take some work, and there may be a better idea out there (or some good tweaks to this one), but surely there's a Thabo apologist with some time on their hands... right?

@Zorgon
Elite scorers FIND ways to score, hence why their great. What makes a defender great isn't his ability to do the impossible and altogether stop the NBA's elite scorers. No one is going to stop a Kobe, but Kobe himself.

What makes a defender great is his ability to make that elite scorer WORK for every point they earn, to disrupt their offensive flow and lower their FG%, to force them into turnovers and poor passes and, here's perhaps the most important part, make that scorer AWARE that you are doing these things to them, which in turn forces them to change their game and means that you have won half the battle already: you're in his head.

Defense is as much mental pressure as it is a physical/effort/intensity pressure on the ball. And that initial mental note from the scorer, that initial realization that, "I'm going to have to work harder" or "I'm going to have to adapt and change the way I play against this defender" is the first step in getting a great scorer off of his game and out of his comfort zone, i.e. disrupt their ability to score at will.

You put (OT) after Kobe's stat line...You should have also put (It's Freaking Kobe Bryant) in there as well...

Thabo's great, but who all will start ahead of him on the all defense team?

Starting last year at the 2 was Kobe the 3 was Lebron. D-Wade and Battier were second team.

I guess I could see Thabo taking Wade's place, but you have to think Artest will be making a jump into first or second team. It's gonna be pretty tough to make it on either team. I do think Thabo is a better defender than Wade, but not so sure about the other 3 on last year's list or Artest likely joining this year's.

maybe all defensive 2nd team this year, 1st team requires him to unseat kobe or chris paul, once we get more national games his reputation will get better.

Hollinger gave Thabo a shout-out in his PER Diem today:
"Speaking of Miami, how about a shout-out to one of the league's rising defensive stoppers, Thabo Sefolosha, who held Dwyane Wade to a season-low 22 points on 6-of-19 shooting and induced six turnovers in Oklahoma City's impressive road win over the Heat on Tuesday?

That was no accident, either. He's already harassed Kobe Bryant (9-of-22, seven turnovers), Brandon Roy (5-of-17) and Kevin Martin (5-of-19) into rough nights, helping explain why the Thunder rank a healthy fifth in defensive efficiency. It also explains why the Thunder were so willing to ink their long-armed Swiss stopper rather than let him test restricted free agency in the summer of 2010.

As certain members (ahem) of the Swiss diaspora revel in his success, Sefolosha has a chance to earn another milestone for his continent. For all the talk of the rise of the European payer, nearly all the achievements have come at the offensive end. Only one European, Andrei Kirilenko, has made the league's All-Defense team, and none has won the defensive player of the year award. Sefolosha is a long, long way from the latter honor, but the former seems within range -- perhaps as soon as this season."

Granted, only geeks read Hollinger, but Thabo's rep will rise with more high-profile coverage like that!

I dont know if any you guys read the excerpts from the tim donaghy book, but in it he talked about how refs usually try to get players that are known as 'star-stoppers' into foul trouble. I would be careful what you wish for. He might be better off without the reputation.

Last night when the Heat came back in the 2nd quarter, Wade started scoring when Sef wasn't guarding him and kept scoring (a lot of them from the ft line) until the 3rd when Sef was back on him.

One thing I would like to see happen. When we are playing teams where their primary scorer is being guarded by Thabo, I'd like to see him stay in until the opposing teams stud goes out. Harden should be the first in off the bench for Westbrook and then bring Ollie for Sef when he goes out. When their stud comes back in, bring Sef back in.

I think he's good, but not great. Nobody goes off on him, that's for sure, and he is pretty much the entire reason we blew out Miami, but the fact remains that while these guys missed a couple more shots or had a couple more turnovers, the large majority of them found ways to score. And Manu only played 18 minutes, Butler and Redick belong on the bench, and and pretty much everybody had a bad night against the TrailBlazers. Again, he's a good defender, but I don't think he should be making the All-Defense team or feared throughout the league just yet. It's only been 11 games.

Thabo needs to be respected/feared more. There is no way we would be 6-5 without him.

Is Thabo future all-defensive team material?

Surely he is. But how good will the Thunder need to be before he gets that consideration?