Why this picture? I don't know, I just kind of thought it was funny.
We’re 17 games in, which means roughly 20 percent of the NBA season is put away, which means some trends are starting to come to the surface. You know, like what’s working in wins versus losses. Those type of things.
Obviously, in wins, you play better. Everybody knows that. It’s why you won. You shot better or rebounded better or played better defense or your players played better. It’s no revelation that in losses your numbers go down and your best players probably didn’t play as well. Again, it’s why you lost.
But at the same time, it’s somewhat key to determine WHAT those things are you’re not doing as well. Because common sense says, correct those issues that are consistently rearing their heads in losses and you know, they turn to wins.
So here are a few developing themes:
In wins, Oklahoma City averages almost four assists more per game. The Thunder dish out almost 21 a game in Ws, and just 16.1 in losses. That’s most punctuated by Russell Westbrook who averages 7.9 helpers in wins and just five a game in losses. But here’s what that says to me: It’s not that Russ is necessarily worse in losses (though in some circumstances he has been), but more that he’s had to shoulder the load more because his teammates either weren’t knocking down shots or playing well. He’s averaged 16.6 points per game in Ws and 17.3 in Ls. Russ has had to pick up the scoring in some losses because things weren’t working (the first Houston game really sticks out in which Westbrook had 33).
Kevin Durant scores four fewer points a game in losses, Jeff Green four fewer and Nenad Krstic a full five fewer. That could be a combination of Westbrook not creating and setting up as well, or just that they aren’t knocking down their usual shots. Add those points they have in wins and Westbrook is averaging seven or eight assists a game in losses too. That’s the thing about assists – it’s a two part thing. It’s easy for people to see Westbrook’s numbers, but at the same time, if he makes a great drive and frees Krstic up for an open 20-footer and Krispy clangs it, whose fault is that?
In losses, turnovers are up by a three a game. This was an issue last year as well. Naturally when you’re losing you start forcing things and start trying harder to make plays. It’s desperation. Westbrook turns it over 3.1 times in wins and 4.4 in losses. Durant goes from 2.8 to 4.0. Thabo even goes up a full turnover more. Again, it’s kind of a natural tendency for any team, but taking care of the ball was an issue last year and it’s something the Thunder has done much, much better with this year, highlighted by just 11 turnovers against Milwaukee.
Accentuated by last night’s loss, 3-point shooting is far different in wins versus losses. In wins, OKC hits six Thunder moneyballs (copyright: Matt Pinto) and shoots 40 percent from deep. In losses, that goes to four treys and just 22.7 percent. The Thunder takes nearly three more a game in losses and again, that’s similar to turnovers. You’re desperate for points so you start chucking like George Costanza. Durant goes from 32 percent to 17. Green 33 to 23. Sefolosha 50 to 11 (!). Westbrook 50 to 15. It’s clearly an issue.
Along the same lines, OKC is eight percent lower from the field in losses. That pretty much explains the lower numbers for Durant, Green and Krstic, three of OKC’s top jumpshooters. Durant drops eight percent. Green almost nine. Krstic an astounding 20 percent. Westbrook holds true basically shooting the same percentage.
Nothing all that revolutionary, but I love looking at the splits that make one game different from another. What’s different for the team home from away? In Sunday games or Monday games? In games on three days rest versus two days? Sometimes it’s coincidence. Sometimes it’s a trend. It’s early in the season and some of these things can tighten up or change a bit. But as we watch a team that’s slowly turning into a potential playoff contender, it’s key to understand what’s working and what’s not. Then correct it. That’s why we (and by “we” I mean “Clay Bennett) pay Scott Brooks the medium sized bucks.
lol its fine i dont mind discussing gortat, yes more of his minutes are at PF this year, but his RPG dropped from 4.5 to 4, and howards mins are 2 less per game, meaning gortat played 2 more minutes at Center this year and 2 more at PF, his RPG should have be up slightly. His PER is 14 compared to krstics 13.1, so he isnt a real upgrade from krstic, its not that i dont like gortat, i just dont want to spend so much money on him, when there are better options
@f5alcon
@justin
@Sammy
This is my last Gortat related comment for awhile I swear. As Sammy and Mr. Falcon have noted, Gortat's rebounding numbers did not increase porportionately to is increased minutes this season (from 12 to 16 on average so far). I think that many of those additional minutes averaged this season came at the PF position while Lewis was suspended, and don't necessarily reflect a dip in the Hammer's performance. Rodman in his prime would have seen his rebounding numbers drop if he had played alongside big Dwight. Just sayin.
@Sammy
I definitely concur with you re: "I'll wait till we have a much larger sample size before I jump to any conclusions.". I'd like to know which stat heads suggested that Marcin Gortat is a league average starting center based on under 1200 minutes of NBA basketball. I don't have the time to research this right now, but I'm sure many of Marcin Gortat's minutes last year in 'uncompetitive' situations. Even if they didn't, using 1200 minutes as a basis to award a long term contract befitting a starting center seems foolhardy.
I'd like to see something more from Marcin Gortat than erratic bench play before claiming him starting center material for any team.
@justin
Gortat's minutes =! garbage time. Would you call Etan Thomas' or Nick Collison's minutes garbage time (before the injuries)? The consensus among many fans/scouts/analysts/statheads is that Gortat is a league-average starting center stuck on a team with Superman, which is a pretty good deal for the MLE. His rate stats have taken a hit but I'll wait till we have a much larger sample size before I jump to any conclusions.
@Steve H
Marcin Gortat is an overpaid backup, I don't understand the fascination some of the fans here had with him in the offseason. I mean, he gets a five year deal after playing 12 minutes a game, mostly in garbage time on a great team? I don't get it. He's starting to get meaningful minutes now and we're seeing what this guy is really capable of, which is not much. Definitely not starting material on a good team.
@f5alcon
20 games is a small enough sample size that I still prefer his #s from last season as a predictor. If he could pull down 8+ boards and 1+ blks in 24 minutes, I would be a happy fan. I think his 5 year contract averages out to around 6.5 mill per- which is actually cheap for that level of production from a big not still under his rookie contract. If I fixate of Gortat, it is only because he could/should be gettable with the resources we have at a reasonable price. Delighted to see Mullens doing good in the D-league, but have to take it with a grain of salt- though like you say, I will be habby with an interim fix at this point like Camby or Haywood until we can fully develop a project like Mullens (or be in position to grab a free agent in another year or two).
I disagree, I'd ship Jeff Green and our first round pick to Memphis for Marc Gasol in a second. Good young center > good young forward. Gasol is playing like a top five center. It's a moot point anyway because he's not going to be traded.
yeah not worth it with the number of FA centers next summer
Marc Gasol would cost at least Jeff Green, probably Jeff Green and a pick. Scrubs like Weaver / White and low lotto picks won't do it.
@KingGondo
yeah, marc gasol would be good, but it would cost us maybe weaver+dj white and draft picks
@justin
We all knew Kaman can do all that, the question mark on him was whether he can stay healthy. so before he plays65+ game this season, I will believe in Presti.
@f5alcon
It's clear to me that our #1 need right now (besides a backup PG, due to injury) is a reliable inside scorer. Look how much better the Lakers are when Gasol returned--it takes a TON of pressure off of every player on the floor when they have to respect your inside offensive game.
Hence, Marc Gasol. He's young, cheap, and we have the assets to make a trade happen, especially with Memphis.
@Steve H
gortats rebounding numbers this season, but his career average is about the same, last year he did better 4.5 per 12 mins, which is about double krstic, but as this year proves it didnt scale when his minutes went up. I just think he is a risk, unproven player with a high salary, especially with mullens averaging 13.5 RPG in the d-league and ibaka on the roster, we may not need a long term solution and a 2 yera deal for camby might be enough until they develop
In retrospect, I think Sam Presti (and a lot of other GM's) missed an opportunity to buy low on Chris Kaman. He's the exact type of center we need, someone who can score at close to a 50% clip, play a bit of defense, rebound, block a couple shots..
So can we have a caption competition for pics like this?
For the pic in this article, "COOTIES!"
@Crow
What's important from here on out is that we beat the teams that we should beat, with an occasional win over a team like the Mavs or Spurs. Anything else is just gravy (such as wins over the Celtics, Suns, or Lakers). No more dropping home games to the Clippers, or losing road games against the Kings. And anything less than a season sweep of the T-Wolves and Grizz would be highly disappointing.
If we do that, .500 is absolutely attainable.
Only two teams in the west have more road wins than Thunder but only two have worse in conference records.
By coincidence he had his best game of the season tonight- 11pts, 5 rebounds in 20 minutes and a solid +/-.
A big not often discussed is Fesenko in Utah. Jerry Sloan is not a fan of his and Utah will need to trim payroll. Somebody could snag him. Whether he can be better than he is right now or better than Mullens I can't say but I'd have some "gambler's" interest.
Yeah his defense stinks at PF. By 82 games it is fine at Center. If you believe it.
But DJ can boost himself by playing better defense. He should know that.
Hey Crow, DJ stinks on defenee - he will never play bigger minutes until he getts better at defense - I like the PER stat, but his is irrelevant because it's mostly garbage time like you said . . .
White’s reference is more "early" Carl Landry, for now.
Landry has handled it fine.
Unless and until he gets bigger minutes White's reference is more Carl Landry than Boozer. But at some point you'd want to find out what he could do in bigger regular minutes.
I'm not really worried about our offensive production in the long run. Russell will become more efficient- with fewer turns and a higher shooting % with experience. KD will commit fewer turns. Harden is of course going to improve significantly. Ibaka could really become something spectacular at the PF position. We don't need to add any players or implement any different strategy to make those things happen- they will happen on their own with experience.
@Vega
I would love to get Gasol, but I can't see why they would part with him unless we are offering one of our core players. Gasol is giving them good numbers, costs them very little, and good centers are always at a premium. Same goes for Hibbert and Lopez, and I don't see the likes of Howard, Bynum, Jefferson or Oden breaking free either.
But it is spot minutes, much in garbage time.
On PER every player over PER25 and 50+ minutes played is an All-Star or soon to be except DJwhite and Nesterovic.
Essentially every player who has been PER22 in over 500 minutes in a season over the last 5 years has been an ALl-Star.
White last season and this season combined has almost 200 minutes and a PER22. An outlier.
A Boozer?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=a1STb
White shoots better and more often than a rookie Boozer. Not quite the same rebounder but not off by that much. White way better on blocks and turnovers.
DJ White's rebounding per minute has snuck up in the last 10 games. To the point where his offensive rebounding rate per 48 in the team's best and his defensive rebounding is only 1 rebound behind Ibaka and good for second place.
http://www.dougstats.com/09-10/OklahomaCityThunderLF.html
I'd try to get Gasol with a package of Etan, Livingston, both of the first-round picks, and maybe the rights to DeVon Hardin and Robert Vaden as well. We'd have to take Jaric too, but that's okay. We would have our center of the present and future, so it would be worth it.
@KingGondo
Depends on what Memphis wants in return.
I agree with many of the commenters; the biggest thing we could do to improve our shooting % is to get a solid inside scorer.
I'm pretty high on Marc Gasol right now--anybody else with me?
No meaningful difference in pace in wins and losses. Big difference in shooting quality.
I don't think you can call any team below average on offense a "contender". If you decided to maybe you could get OKC, Milwaukee and Miami in there.
Maybe you can grant "contender" to 2 teams below average on defense- Utah and Phoenix.
The ten teams neutral or better on both are the main contenders.
This is a nice display of how the team compares to others
http://www.nbastuffer.com/2009-20010_NBA_Regular_Season_Power_Rankings_Chart.html
Thunder take 2 more 3 pt attempts per game at home and because fo a better FG% hit 2 more.
The offense on average has been better the last 5 games than compared to earlier.
offense is about the same against playoff teams and lottery teams but the defense is worse against the worse teams and / or better against the better teams depending on how you want to say it.
Both the offense and defense are significantly better against the east, the offense even moreso.
7-0 when they score 100+. 2-7 when they don't.
I don't want to sound like I'm ripping this post, because I'm addicted to parsing stats as much as anyone. But I see it a lot in baseball, too. Someone will say something like "Well, when our 3-4-5 hitters don't knock in a run, we're 7-28!" Well, yeah, when we don't score runs, we lose.
A lot of times stats like these can be summed up easily with something like 1.) The Thunder play worse in losses than they do in wins
@f5alcon
I do like Gortat, and I'm suprised that his rebounding stats aren't higher than that. Is that a career average, or this season's output? Just watching the guy, he is in continuous motion and looks very active. Regardless, I'll be happy with any of those guys I listed- and I'm sure quite a few that I over looked as well. NBA.com lists us at 16th in rebounds per game, with KD, our leading guy at a little over 7 per, ranked 44th in the league. Where would we rank I wonder if we had a top-ten rebounder at center?
Assisted FG rate falls from 55% in wins to 48% in losses.
@Kev
Jeff Green's game hasn't changed at all, or hardly at all since his rookie year. Even though we've changed coaches it really hasn't. The only real difference is that he shoots a little better (last year especially). He's always played on the wing. He's rarely posted up and he's rarely been an aggressive rebounder. He's part of that new breed of four that plays out on the wing.It's all fine if you have a quality big man at the five (think David West and Tyson Chandler) or Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins, even Nowitzki and Dampier. But Green and Krstic is a non starter IMO. That's why I have been a proponent of matching the finesse guys with the power guys up front. However, Etan (power) and Collison (power) have very good player pair numbers.
@Kev
Phoenix's draft pick would probably be enough to get a guy like Josh Boone.
what stinks is the value of Phoenix's draft pick . . . bottom . . .
As far as bigs go, I'm expecting the unexpected. I think that Presti will pull a Thabo-esque trade for a lesser known center who will be put in position to break out in OKC.
Joe :I think it’s the offense. Seriously. Our defense is very very good, top 6 or 7 actually. You can’t be unhappy about that.
The offense shoots considerably more midrange jumpers than the NBA average while simultaneously shooting much less at the rim or from three than the NBA average. We take much more of the least efficient shots in the game and much less of the most efficient shots. It’s really that simple. Our offense is largely predicated on drive and dish, and the shot that results is usually a midrange. We need more better shooters to up our efficiency (Thabo stands out) or to tweak our offense.
We use screens all the time, but when is the last time you actually saw our screener roll to the basket and get a shot close in? Our bigs always pull up and shoot (Green and Krstic). We need to go to the rim and the PNR is one very established way of doing it. We have the athleticism.
If we upped our offensive efficiency by a percent or two we would be in the playoffs. We may still be, but it would be virtually assured all things being equal and our defense holding the line.
amen . . .
someone like you Joe, or anyone else that watched Green as a rookie -
WHY isnt he posting up more - for example, last night we are playing undersized 4s like Jeff - WHY isnt he posting up? Didnt he have a post up game at Georgetown???
@Steve H@16
minutes, minutes adjusted thats 5.9 in the same mins krstic plays, basically 1 RPG game better then krstic. pryzbilla, ilgauskus, haywood, biedrins, okafor, camby all have better rebounds rate then gortat and krstic.
I think it's the offense. Seriously. Our defense is very very good, top 6 or 7 actually. You can't be unhappy about that.
The offense shoots considerably more midrange jumpers than the NBA average while simultaneously shooting much less at the rim or from three than the NBA average. We take much more of the least efficient shots in the game and much less of the most efficient shots. It's really that simple. Our offense is largely predicated on drive and dish, and the shot that results is usually a midrange. We need more better shooters to up our efficiency (Thabo stands out) or to tweak our offense.
We use screens all the time, but when is the last time you actually saw our screener roll to the basket and get a shot close in? Our bigs always pull up and shoot (Green and Krstic). We need to go to the rim and the PNR is one very established way of doing it. We have the athleticism.
If we upped our offensive efficiency by a percent or two we would be in the playoffs. We may still be, but it would be virtually assured all things being equal and our defense holding the line.
@thunder tim
A lot of those rebounds were grabbed 20-30 ft out...
Sammy :Yeah, it was amazing how many times last night there were four okc players standing right around the basket waiting for the bounce, and the ball would either careem over all their heads to the rocket player standing 16ft away or it would bounce straight into the chest Carl Landry.
I didn't catch the game last night but I have noticed we don't really box out all that well (though nobody really does in the nba). doing so helps cut way down on those type of rebounds...
Yeah, it was amazing how many times last night there were four okc players standing right around the basket waiting for the bounce, and the ball would either careem over all their heads to the rocket player standing 16ft away or it would bounce straight into the chest Carl Landry.
Sammy :@BryanI’m not worried about that at all. While the stat sounds worrisome, two of those losses are away games against teams that are definitely superior to the Thunder (Magic and Lakers), and Houston beat us soundly the first time so the fact we lost to them again is neither here nor there. That leaves SAC and LAC, two tough luck losses that hardly represent a meaningful sample size.
Thanks for that... I feel better now. But if the Thunder lose many more of those, I'm crying foul!