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November down, December now: What should we expect?

by Royce Young on December 1, 2009 at 1:59 pm 38 Comments

In case you haven’t been paying attention: After a full month of play, the Oklahoma City Thunder is one game December_2009_Style_3over .500 with a 9-8 record. I’m not sure how many of us saw this coming. We all knew the team would be better and there would be no 1-16 start, but this much better?

A winning road record, wins at Utah, San Antonio and Miami and a dismantling of the mighty Magic at the Ford Center. Back in August, I saw the team going something like 6-11 through the first 17. And I’m loving how wrong I was. But now November is behind us and today is the first day of December, a month that has Boston, Cleveland, Denver, Dallas, Houston, the Lakers, Phoenix and Utah all on the schedule. Another plus-.500 month would be huge, because the road ain’t easy.

The schedule:
Dec. 2 – Philadelphia
Dec. 4 – Boston
Dec. 7 – Golden State
Dec. 11 – at Memphis
Dec. 13 – Cleveland
Dec. 14 – at Denver
Dec. 16 – Dallas
Dec. 18 – Detroit
Dec. 19 – at Houston
Dec. 22 – at L.A. Lakers
Dec. 23 – at Phoenix
Dec. 26 – Charlotte
Dec. 28 – at New Jersey
Dec. 29 – at Washington
Dec. 31 – Utah

Eight home games, seven road. Eight games against winning clubs. A three-game road trip going to the Lakers, Phoenix and Houston. And for good measure, four back-to-backs. If this team showed us one thing in the first month it’s this: It’s capable of beating anyone in the league, but also capable of losing to anyone in the league. No game is safe, no contest is a gimme. So yes, a road game at the currently 0-17 Nets doesn’t feel like a sure thing to me. But at the same time, this week’s home game against Boston appears winnable by all means.

Looking at the run of games, what are reasonable expectations? 8-7? Better? Worse? Let’s look.

The rest of this homestand (three games), has two very winnable games against a 5-13 76ers squad and a 6-10 Warriors team. Obviously Boston is very good, so there really isn’t expectation to win there. But finishing up 2-1 and going 3-2 during this Ford Center run would be nice.

If this team showed us one thing in the first month it's this: It's capable of beating anyone in the league, but also capable of losing to anyone in the league. No game is safe, no contest is a gimme.

The next five has two should-wins on it with Memphis and a home game against the Pistons. But at Denver, home against the LeBrons and Dallas at home will be tough. However, with the way OKC is playing against top tier teams, I’m saying they take one of those three, most likely the Dallas game. So if all goes according to plan, that’s another 3-2 stretch in a bundle of tough games.

The following three game road trip is darn near impossible. Houston, the Lakers, Phoenix. I’d like to think the Thunder could pull one off against the Rockets because it’s hard to beat any team three straight times and OKC really had the last one against Houston had it not been for 298 offensive rebounds for the Rockets. But I’m not holding my breath here. This has three-game losing streak written all over it. Which really isn’t that big a deal because dang, that’s a really tough rough trip.

The month rounds out with a should-win against Charlotte, a big SHOULD-WIN at New Jersey, a trap game in Washington and what will likely be a tough one at home against Utah. This looks like a 3-1 stretch but for some reason feels like it will go 2-2. But since I’m a shameless homer, I’m going to go with 3-1.

That rounds out to another plus-one month at 8-7. And honestly, if OKC can escape a tough December with a 17-15 overall record, color me outlandishly excited. This team is kind of hard to predict because its going to lose a couple it should, but probably win a few it shouldn’t too. That’s why I think it’ll all kind of balance out. The Thunder might lose at home to Detroit, but could very well win at Denver. Hey, if Minnesota can do it, I’m pretty sure Oklahoma City can to.

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Andy Sweeter than Candy
Andy Sweeter than Candy 5pts

yup alex those shirts about kd where pretty tight

Chas
Chas 5pts

Mullens didn't mind lettin' Hardin take all the post up opportunities did he?

B-RY
B-RY 5pts

@Durantula
Nice....

GAP
GAP 5pts

@MartzMimic
Yeah I guess I wanted it too much. Devon Hardin and Mullens playing right now online.

MartzMimic
MartzMimic 5pts

@GAP
Sneak an extra game in there? :)

I think we're 8-7, 7-8 depending on which way the ball bounces.

GAP
GAP 5pts

sorry 8-7

GAP
GAP 5pts

Although we might get up for that Laker game and show the world that that game there was a fluke, so 9-8

GAP
GAP 5pts

I would have to say 8-8 month

Durantula
Durantula 5pts

Mmmmm... I think our team emerges from the Houston loss and will strike down upon the NBA with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy the Broingtons:

Dec. 2 – Philadelphia W
Dec. 4 – Boston W
Dec. 7 – Golden State W
Dec. 11 – at Memphis W
Dec. 13 – Cleveland W
Dec. 14 – at Denver W
Dec. 16 – Dallas W
Dec. 18 – Detroit W
Dec. 19 – at Houston W
Dec. 22 – at L.A. Lakers W
Dec. 23 – at Phoenix W
Dec. 26 – Charlotte W
Dec. 28 – at New Jersey W
Dec. 29 – at Washington W
Dec. 31 – Utah W

15-0 December.

Joe
Joe 5pts

@justin
I agree with you. I am fine with Wilks as a third guard and a replacement for Ollie. And also that Livngston never really thrilled me as a point guard. Ollie is just what we needed (big props to Presti) and his 4 week absence will be a shame.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

he will sign with the sixers tomorrow

dork
dork 5pts

@cpt.c-note

bench? Bench? BENCH? I don't play off no *&^% BENCH!...

and that is why AI will be done after this season... AI the new TO of the NBA

cpt.c-note
cpt.c-note 5pts

Then again...I'd like to rout for him and his points off the bench...

cpt.c-note
cpt.c-note 5pts

@Dan2
There's no way that Presti and co would want AI at THIS stage of his career. I thought the same thing, at first, then realized this with our recent history in making moves.

Dan2
Dan2 5pts

What if we added Allen Iverson? We have the cap space, he would be cheap, and if he is willing to be a backup, then it could fit, although he doesn't play the greatest defense. A.I has to be an upgrade to Mike Wilks and Livingston.

cpt.c-note
cpt.c-note 5pts

*Toddler ;>

cpt.c-note
cpt.c-note 5pts

I think we go 7-8
We beat some lesser teams, still have problems with back-to-backs, and the "top teams" take advantage of our youth/possible injuries to starters.(not trying to jinx us, but its gonna happen at some point.) This would leave us at 16-16, and on pace to go .500!
Not too shabby, me thinks...

Dec. 2 – Philadelphia W
Dec. 4 – Boston L
Dec. 7 – Golden State W
Dec. 11 – at Memphis W
Dec. 13 – Cleveland L
Dec. 14 – at Denver L
Dec. 16 – Dallas L
Dec. 18 – Detroit W
Dec. 19 – at Houston L
Dec. 22 – at L.A. Lakers L
Dec. 23 – at Phoenix L
Dec. 26 – Charlotte W
Dec. 28 – at New Jersey W
Dec. 29 – at Washington L
Dec. 31 – Utah W

btw...
I got to Tree & Leaf around 4:30 with my 20 month old baby girl,(maybe toddle sizes next time?), just in time to get my "NWA-Krisic" tee and, of course, my official "Zombie Sonics" Tee!! (both in my size, to!)
I'll be representing on Friday vs. The Celtics. But first things first...BEAT THE 76ERS!! GO THUNDER!!!

Dan
Dan 5pts

I think we go 6-9

Dec. 2 – Philadelphia W
Dec. 4 – Boston L
Dec. 7 – Golden State W
Dec. 11 – at Memphis L
Dec. 13 – Cleveland L
Dec. 14 – at Denver W
Dec. 16 – Dallas L
Dec. 18 – Detroit L
Dec. 19 – at Houston W
Dec. 22 – at L.A. Lakers L
Dec. 23 – at Phoenix L
Dec. 26 – Charlotte L
Dec. 28 – at New Jersey W
Dec. 29 – at Washington W
Dec. 31 – Utah L

15-17 to end the year not bad.

dork
dork 5pts

HAHAHA anyone seen Collisons pic on his twitter? http://twitter.com/account/profile_image/nickcollison4?hreflang=en

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

Royce :@J.G
.
You’re such a buzzkill. Next you’re going to tell me the Thunder’s not going to win an NBA title this year. Go ahead. Go ahead and tell me that.

haha, its possible, the 1999 knicks went to finals as the 8th seed

Alex
Alex 5pts

Let me know what you guys think of this shirt design "Nicknames"...I did a couple different colors http://img162.yfrog.com/i/nicknamesblacka.pdf/
http://img49.yfrog.com/i/nicknamesfilled.pdf/
http://img160.yfrog.com/i/nicknamesunfilled.pdf/

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Royce
....gulp....

Royce
Royce 5pts

@J.G.
You're such a buzzkill. Next you're going to tell me the Thunder's not going to win an NBA title this year. Go ahead. Go ahead and tell me that.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

Well now I just sound like a downer, people. Thanks. :)

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

i hope to have 15 wins at least by jan, 20 wins is my stretch goal, which is basically all the teams with losing records and half the games against the better teams.

justin
justin 5pts

Mike Wilks is an adequate Kevin Ollie replacement. Shaun Livingston's career appears to be done, at least at point guard. I don't think I saw him play any point guard in in summer or preseason. I'd rather have Mike Wilks in there, really. They seem to want Livingston to play more as a swing man.

It'll be an accomplishment to be at .500 going into January. I don't think this is really a tough month, though. Seven of the fifteen games are against teams under .500, and another of the home games is against Utah who aren't that strong this season. I think we match up well against Dallas, also.

Dan2
Dan2 5pts

I think the growth of Ibaka and White could really determine how far we go this year, much more so if Collison and Kristic keep getting injured.

Dan2
Dan2 5pts

I think the injuries were a big part to loosing to Houston, we were leading at half time, tied going into the 4th, but they crushed us in the 4th, I think partly due to fatigue and a complete lack of veteran leadership off the bench, I don't consider Mike Wilks as being decent veteran like Ollie. We had 2 true rookies, Ibaka and Harden, and White is kind of a rookie with so little experience last year, coming off the bench. We really really needed some classic Collison grit off the bench. I think it can be small minutes here and there by Collison and Ollie that prevents big runs, even if they aren't a part of big thunder runs, they keep our opponet's bench in check. Landry had the same game this time around, 21 10, but Collison usually has 6-9 rebounds, which wasn't replaced by Ibaka or White.

ATH
ATH 5pts

@Royce
Agreed. It's just hard to imagine them winning any tail-ends of their back-to-backs against Denver, Houston, Phoenix, or Washington unless the bench gets healthy fast or another significant acquisition is made. It's not out of doubt in the team's talent that some cloudier predictions could be made. I think their success this month rest more on the shoulders of Brooks and perhaps Presti than on Durant and co.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Royce
I'd agree that they're not huge game-changers, but I fear that they're significant enough to be able to turn close games the other way. Collison alone affects the outcome of games with his rebounding and gritty post play down low (pretty sure he would have made a dent into the Rockets rebound-a-thon), but even if he plays he is still not the Collison from last year.

The loss of the entire backup PG rotation is the biggest "uh-oh" to me because, if RW starts having a horrible game, does anyone take him out to replace him with Wilks? And when Wilks is in the game, he doesn't really contribute offensively all that much, and his size makes him a defensive liability. And this is no offense to him at all because I love how hard he plays, but it's just the reality of having to play a career third string point guard as your key pg reserve.

And even if Livingston gets back, he hasn't looked like the Livingston from last year at all.

Tack on the daunting nature of this month (3 game road trip, 4 back-to-backs like you said) and a glaring lack of depth at the point and post positions if anyone else gets hurt...and that just spells 6-9 to me. Obviously I hope I'm wrong, because if they can somehow head into January at 17-15, then they WILL make the playoffs as the rest of the way is straight downhill.

Royce
Royce 5pts

By the way, I tried to be as sensible as I could in judging this. But I also didn't want to sell this group short just to err on the side of caution. I think they can win some games this month, I really do.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@J.G.
Well I suppose those factor in, but I feel like they aren't HUGE game-changing injuries. You might see it differently. Collison will play tomorrow so that's good, but Weaver being out really doesn't bother me a ton because this record was built mostly without him. Of course, all three of Ollie, Livingston and Weaver being out kind of hurts though.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@Royce
Weaver being out 4 months when he was looking like a contributor and Collison still being banged up and not 100% from the ankle injury in addition to the latest set back, on top of Ollie and Livingston.

ATH
ATH 5pts

Long-time reader, first-time poster here. I grew up in Oklahoma and now spend a few evenings a week chasing down Thunder games from various locales in Northwest Arkansas. It's been a great first month. And while it seems somewhat reasonable to be optimistic about the upcoming stretch of tough games due to the Thunder's tendency to rise up/stoop down to the competition, most of these good teams have good coaching, and, as was pointed out in an earlier thread, the Thunder seem to be (potentially) figure-outable. When you factor in the inevitable wear of fatigue on an injury-depleted squad and the forgettable fact their they're SO young, a lot of late-game meltdowns could be on the way. It wouldn't be a big deal really, and it wouldn't necessarily keep them out of the playoffs, but December could be disappointing.

P.S. Ordered a Zombie Sonics shirt for myself and a Beard shirt for my girlfriend at 8:00 this morning. We're both big fans of the blog, and we'll be representing at the Cavs game December 13.

Royce
Royce 5pts

@J.G.
Which injuries? Ollie and Livingston?

Durantula
Durantula 5pts

Is there any chance we pick up a guard that can really contribute instead of Wilks? He doesn't seem like he is going to contribute much...

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

Royce, did we factor injuries into these predictions?

I won't just be excited if they go 17-15 with the current lineup of available players, I'll be outright ecstatic...if not borderline shocked in need of a paper bag.

Trackbacks

  1. Wednesday Bolts – 12.30.09 | Daily Thunder.com says:
    December 30, 2009 at 12:55 pm

    [...] the Thunder were 10-8 and headed into a gauntlet that we all thought would prove their worth. I saw them coming out of it 17-15, and even I felt like that was a little ambitious. Now with one game to play, they’re 17-14 [...]

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