A sweet road victory and three games over .500 baybeee!
Brian Davis made the point at the end of the broadcast that the last time this franchise was 3 games over .500 was in 2004. Just let that sink in for a minute. I watched nearly every game that season and most games since and I can tell you that there has been some very mediocre basketball, and at times some really terrible basketball in the old green and gold and now the Thunder blue. But that aside, how great was it tonight to see the team regroup in the fourth quarter and absolutely gut punch the Griz? I mean we flat out got ripped in the third period scoring and could only manage to score a measly 10 points. That same group came back in the fourth and got the run started before the starters (with the exception of Harden) put their foot on the gas and took us home.
The Thunder had complete control of this game for three quarters. What was weird was that the three quarters weren’t concurrent. We won the first, second and fourth and got smoked in the third? You would have thought that the Griz sort of figured things out and were getting the shots and the matchups they wanted and would take a close game to the final buzzer but that didn’t happen. The thing that stood out to me was the Griz having total domination in the paint in the third and the jumphots and every other kind of shot not falling for the Thunder all at the same time. Zach Randolph was busy being a rebound hound with 13 in the quarter and 20 total boards. Of course I couldn’t help noticing that he did have 11 Orebs and 13 missed shots….nice way to pad your stats.
But like a light switch being turned on the Thunder suddenly wrested control of the paint from the Griz. Krstic and Green just got absolutely tough as nails on Gasol and Randolph in the fourth. Also Brooks began to double team whoever had the ball in the post in the fourth. Usually it was Durant cheating over. His long arms are quite a weapon. That’s just good coaching there. They don’t win this game without taking back the paint.
Anyway, rather than talk about how the team lost a 17 point lead I will just say that I think it’s a sign of growth for one of the youngest teams to come back in the fourth against a quality team on the road (that’s right, the Griz don’t suck anymore). These were lost games last year. Now the team believes.
Notes:
- Lots of nice performances tonight. I want to again highlight the two bulls in the paint. Krstic had 15 and 8 and 2 blocks on 7/10 shooting in just 28 minutes. Colly was 8 and 7 in just 16 minutes.
- Where did Serge Ibaka go? That guy that rebounded and was a weakside terror?
- Harden had a bad shooting night but he was big in this game. 5 boards 4 assists and 2 steals. Thabeet swatted him twice, but you won’t see that when he gets some more experience. I also think the dude has been going crazy in the weight room; he’s getting some serious size on those guns.
- Westbrook was the good Westbrook tonight, he played Conley about even. I think Conley is a pretty nice option for the Griz. Not flashy but very smooth and efficient.
- I was excited to see Demarre Carroll in the game. One of my favorite college players this past season. He did absolutely nothing tonight however.
- I was watching Livingston tonight to see if he could stay in front of his man with the bionic knee. I think he did a good job on Jamaal Tinsley. He never got torched from my view.
- Did you notice Harden is finishing games instead of Sefolosha? Sef went back in with a minute to go but the game was over and Harden played nearly the whole fourth with the starters.
- O.J.Mayo is supposed to be 6’4″, yet he is shorter than Westbrook and considerably shorter than Harden.
- Sort of funny numerology with the box score. The two teams were within one of each other in made field goals, had the exact same number of free throw attempts, and the same number of of threes made and just one off on threes attempted. Yet, the Griz attempted 8 more field goals and lost by 8. One big factor was the TEN missed FT’s by the Griz. They can look at those 10 points they left on the board and see how they lost.
Just a great win for confidence with some of the league’s heavyweights up on the schedule.
Kev,
I meant +’s or -’s to give Brooks for his defensive coaching.
Vince,
I leaned toward thinking you were being sarcastic but thanks for the clarification.
Larry :@Royce
Seattle finished 04-05 52-30, right? That seems just a few more than “3″ over .500
What the quote was referring to is that the last time the Thunder/Sonics were 3 games over .500 was in the 04.05 season. Not that the team only finished three games over .500. Make sense?
they speak french...
Sweden and Switzerland aren't the same
@Taz-Maniac
@Tapdog72
Yes you are correct. But he is also fluent in Spanish as well so I suspect it won't be long till he learns English as well.
Also, to date, our SOS is .545, and the average SOS of our opponents, as of today, is .503. For the next 10 games, that opp. SOS is only .492. So while the SOS for the next ten games is high, the teams they built there records on are not as impressive. The biggest teams coming up with the weakest schedules are Denver with an SOS of .411 and Cleveland with an SOS of .473.
Since we have been talking about SOS, I figured I'd look at our next few games. For the next ten, before today's games our SOS would be .557. Since the end of that ten includes New Jersey and Washington, I looked at the next 6, and that comes out to .637. Ouch!
Crow :His stats can be useful. His analysis has sometimes been flip but I’ll look at and use what’s out there. He is the only one offering Adjusted Pair data right now.
I hope you realize I was kidding. Sarcasm doesn't always play well on message boards, and also I was drunk (not sarcasm).
Also, it could be pretty skewed, from one point of view. If they've played the Suns a few times, and played the Timberwolves a few times (as an example, I haven't looked at the Lakers sched at all) then the record could still be high based on the Suns' great record.
The Thunder have yet to play a really terrible team. The Clippers and Kings are the so-called worst teams we've played so far, and they've both overachieved. Maybe the 76ers start sneaking into terrible territory, but we have yet to play the Nets or the Wolves, which would make our schedule look even worse.
Maybe I'm thinking about this too much...
@jonnyweb
So, those are based on the team's opponents' records when they played them? I guess the next question is, who did those teams play? Like, the Lakers apparently have the most difficult schedule based on the opponents' records, but how difficult were the schedules of those opponents?
There's probably no way to properly measure this, any more than a simple eye test would, but it's something to think about. This week has me really scared, mostly for our guys confidence.
@Royce
Seattle finished 04-05 52-30, right? That seems just a few more than "3" over .500
Lefty :@Tapdog72Oui oui.
Does anyone know where to find the difficulty of shcedule for each of the teams? I have a hard time believing there are many teams out there with a more difficult opening two months than we’ve had.
I think this is what you're looking for.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi
sos is a clickable tab on there
@Lefty
Not sure, but Jeff Sagarin's website has strength of schedule listings here:
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/nbasend.htm
Under "SCHEDL" it says we have the 6th most difficult schedule in the league. Although we're a disappointing 1-7 against other teams in Sagarin's top 10.
I am not a +/- homer but it sort of proved what I saw was a great defensive stint for Imbaka. At +8 in 9 min. I thouht he played great position D tonight, it would be interesting to see how many times Zebo scored with Imbaka on him.
@Tapdog72
Oui oui.
Does anyone know where to find the difficulty of shcedule for each of the teams? I have a hard time believing there are many teams out there with a more difficult opening two months than we've had.
@Taz-Maniac
Actually, I believe the language they have in common is French.
"I was excited to see Demarre Carroll in the game"
carrol was one of the most exciting players in collbb last year and mizz was good largely because of him. he would have been a nice addition to us had we drafted him.
@Joe
I really enjoy seeing that... but I will enjoy it even more once we hit win 24
I distinctly remember the first one . . . he stepped up to help on the pick and roll when no help was needed - Marc Gasol slipped behind him, received the pass and scored easily . . .
HOwever, Collison did the same thing in the first quarter - on a backscreen Collison showed to slow up the cutter on the wing to deter the pass - he overdid it though, and Gasol slipped behind him and got an easy layup . . .
These mistakes I really dont mind as long as they are corrected and dont happen to often (yes, I did penalize both players for those errors) - what kills me is when you make a mistake due to lack of effort . . .
I didn't record this game, Kev did you notice the two layups Marc Gasol had almost immediately after Serge Ibaka entered the game? It seemed to me on first glance that Ibaka way over committed on help defense which lead to these points.
Crow :Kev, if you have +’s or -’s to give Brooks occasionally that could be another angle… if you want.
are you talking about overall for the season?
I have them on a spreadsheet that lists the points per game and on a per minute basis so I can equally compare bench players and starters . . . when I have a free second I will probably write a column detailing the points thus far . . .
Royce :@KevKev, how about Durant’s challenge on Rudy Gay that forced Gay into an airball? Just perfect anticipation of a jumpshot.
Durant has come so far. I can’t wait to even see what he’s like next year.
you are right - there are several others that could've made the "best play" honors . . .
I love rewinding great defensive plays . . . thank God for DVRs . . .
Because it never gets old:
We won game 12 last year on February 6th; our 50th game.
This year we won our 12th game in 21 games. Sweeet.
Jax Raging Bile Duct :
He’s a 19 year old rookie, so here in a season or so, he’s going to get the defensive rotations down, and will be better at English which will help him communicate on defense (a highly under-rated aspect of good D). It will be so much fun to see.
Also keep in mind that usually when Ibaka is on the court, Thabo has to be on the court since they both speak Swedish. This way Brooks can communicate to him more effectively. So Yes the language is important.
Man, Jamaal Tinsley is really terrible. I think the strategy when playing the Grizz is to make sure the ball is in his hands as much as possible.
Also, you could tell Durant was taking that Grizzlies run personally when he got those two consecutive deflections on out of bounds plays. He's got some real heart.
@Vince
Nice observation- Those wins helped confirm (in my mind at least) that our improved record is reflective of a significantly improved team (see the Bucks for roller-coaster for an example of false progress).
His stats can be useful. His analysis has sometimes been flip but I'll look at and use what's out there. He is the only one offering Adjusted Pair data right now.
Crow, how dare you quote a Wayne Winston stat on this board. You traitor.
I've been very comforted by the recents wins over the 76ers, Warriors and Griz. We won all three teams the way good teams do -- giving up a few runs, maybe not playing at our best for four quarters, but closing strong and relying on the defense in key spots. I think to get a road win when we started something like 2 for 16 from 3 and had a -18 quarter is just huge. There's no way this team could have overcome those two things last season. But good teams win those games sometimes. Bad teams never do.
Ibaka has gotten 5 games with 20+ minutes. White has just 2 games much above 10 minutes so far this season.
They've come far, fast, so far...
but I wrote this elsewhere:
Last season 10 teams were above the league median on both offensive and defensive efficiency. The top 8 regular season records and the final 8 playoff teams standing all met these dual criteria. Portland and Utah had the balance but couldn't get a final 8 seat.
This season so far 9 teams are above the league median on both offensive and defensive efficiency. 6 of the top 8 records meet these dual criteria with Denver just missing for now and Phoenix the main exception. Portland, Houston and San Antonio make the cut as well.
Denver and Utah slipped off of the above average balanced team list this season due to 8 spot drops on defense compared to last season. Dallas joins the list with an 11 spot defensive efficiency improvement.
The Thunder has some ground to cover to get to above average on offensive efficiency.
More Harden should help. To squeeze other offensive improvement in (besides payer development) you'd primarily have to do it on the interior.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
HAHA good point jax. We are seeing an Ibaka that can't communicate very well at all... I hadn't considered that until now.. +10 potential in my book :P
can't wait till he gets english down :) (and yes i'm an ibaka homer i know :P)
I figured we would get beat in the paint, but I'm impressed with how hard we tried to keep up there. Gasol and Zbo can dominate the paint in points and boards. I thought if we at least kept it close there, that the 3 point shot would be the difference. Both teams were nearly identical there, so it ended up coming down to free throws. I feel good about a game that comes down to free throws. We seem to be so money with the free throw.
Ibaka was a little lost tonight. We were on a hardcore roll there in the second quarter, and then Ibaka came in and the Grizz went on a run.
He's a 19 year old rookie, so here in a season or so, he's going to get the defensive rotations down, and will be better at English which will help him communicate on defense (a highly under-rated aspect of good D). It will be so much fun to see.
I must have BFS (Battered Fan Syndrome) from all the lost leads and second half arse-whoopings our team took last year. I was cringing like a dog at a rolled up newspaper during that third quarter. It took some not insignificant will power to keep my finger off the fast forward button and risk . I just kept telling myself "this is not last year's team". Of course it's not, but still, I cringed. Yeah, I'm weak.
I finally got to watch a Thunder game on TV! Haha, I don't have NBATV or League Pass of any kind. But I do live in East Tennessee so I got the Memphis coverage of the game! I was so excited with the way the first half was going; then felt sick during the 3rd. Only to have my faith restored in all that I've been reading by how the 4th and the game ended.
Great stuff, I think the team's confidence will grow from this game. It was a much needed 4th quarter effort against an average to above average team. Good tuner for future 4th quarter efforts against much tougher teams. I'd much rather be in a learning confidence building 4th quarter with the Grizzlies rather than the Nuggets or Lakers ya know?
All in all, a W!
@Kev
Kev, how about Durant's challenge on Rudy Gay that forced Gay into an airball? Just perfect anticipation of a jumpshot.
Durant has come so far. I can't wait to even see what he's like next year.
Kev, if you have +'s or -'s to give Brooks occasionally that could be another angle... if you want.
It makes "sense" for him to "be" out there then...
Defensive Details
Overall, the defensive score for the Thunder came out slightly above average. I thought defended well, and we forced them into some tough shots. I will elaborate below.
Defensive MVP – Kevin Durant (+10)
The great defensive play continues. Does anyone remember the old Bulls with Scottie Pippen playing lockdown defense? No, I’m not saying that Durant is at that level yet, but he’s getting there. Plus, he’s longer than Pippen, and he uses his length just like Scottie did. He ended up recording a block, five deflections (two were on consecutive plays), four “contests”, and a forced airball. His best play: it’s the end of the first quarter. Shaun Livingston is guarding Grizzlies’ point guard Jamaal Tinsley, who has the ball out top. Shaun stumbles and falls. Durant is guarding nearby. He leaves his man to check Tinsley while Shaun gets back on his feet. KD stays with Tinsley, as Jamaal tries to get around KD with a series of fancy dribbles and moves. KD hangs tough and holds his ground. Ultimately, Tinsley does get around him at an angle, but he has to take an off balance shot at the buzzer. It’s just another great defensive play that won’t show up in the traditional box score.
I also like what in the last thirty-five seconds of the game. The Thunder is up nine. Mayo gets the ball and shoots a three. Durant steps up and contests the shot. Most might not see it as a big deal, but even if OJ makes that shot we win by (at least six). We get the ball and we are fouled. Harden hits the free throws and Memphis gets the ball. Durant sinks when the ball is on the left side. The ball comes back up to Mayo and Durant flies out to contest him. Mayo hits the shot, but that’s not the point. That shot won’t affect the outcome, but Durant STILL wants to prevent the basket. That shows that he has the mindset to stop people on a consistent basis.
James Harden (+9)
Harden had a rough start. Right after entering the contest, He was offside and not paying attention to his man, Sam Young. Young slipped by him and Tinsley fed him the ball for an easy layup. Thankfully, Harden recovered to have a very good defensive outing. I had him down for a steal, a block, a deflection, an airball, and only two mistakes.
Thabo Sefolosha (+7)
The defensive play of the game came late in the second quarter. Thabo was on OJ Mayo. Conley was dribbling out top. Mayo circled behind him, and went to the left. Conley threw the ball to Marc Gasol in the high post and picked Thabo as he went around to chase OJ. As Mayo went in for the drive, Thabo accelerated and blocked the ball from behind out of bounds. When great defenders get picked, they don’t give up, they catch up. What a great play!
Nick Collison (+3)
Shaun Livingston (+3)
Another solid outing for Shaun. He seems to be able to do okay with guarding the backup ones. I only have him down for one mistake. Hopefully this trend continues.
Russell Westbrook (+3)
Thankfully, Russell’s transition defense was MUCH better tonight. He didn’t get out of position with his “advance toward the basket AFTER the other team is about to get possession” move.
Nenad Krstic (+1)
Serge Ibaka (+1)
Jeff Green (-2)
Green had issues with Zach Randolph, or Zbo, as the home team calls him. In the 3rd, Zbo had his way with the undersized Green. Zbo basically bulied him all quarter. Jeff tried, but he doesn’t have the bulk to offer much resistance. Zbo was able to score with postups and offensive rebounds. I actually thought they would pull Jeff after a series of defensive miscues, but he stayed in the game.
Good catch Joe on Harden finishing games. I see he played all of the 4th in 3 of the last 4 before tonight and half of the other. It makes for him to out there then, when he is going ok. Thabo was out there too some in recent games, maybe when they could go small.
While the third quarter was painful to watch, to me the fourth quarter was where I truly started to believe that we are a playoff team. On the road, against a good team, with everything going against them the Thunder dominated the fourth. This is the kind of game that we lost a lot of last year. This is the kind of game we let get away from us when Houston was in town a few weeks ago. In this game the Thunder stood in there and took everything the Grizzlies had (I know Gay wasn't hitting but Randolph was incredible) and still managed to get an eight point win on their home court.
Impressive.
Lastly, James Harden is the best dressed post-game interviewee in the entire league.
By Wayne Winston's Adjusted method Durant's best partners by far are Collison and Harden. Least- Green and Sefolosha. But he is apparently now good with all the main guys.
Harden for the season is a bit under 50% finishing inside. Not bad but not strong.
His 15% blocked rate when shooting inside compares to Westbrook at 16% and Durant at 12%. Thabo 10%, Green 9%. Collison has figured it out or been lucky so far and is at 3%. Kristic and Thomas are at 17%. Nobody has blocked White or Ibaka inside, yet.
Randolph's 11 offensive rebounds was exceeded only 10 times in the league in the last 5 years or 6000+ games. Rodman once got 18 in a game.
@Royce
This is true. When Z-Bo has 13 rebounds in one quarter, you're doing something wrong.
BTW, reading that post in Smart Thoughts about our need for a backup PG--the more I think about it, the more I think we should go for Nate Robinson. It just seems like he would fit in really well with our young guys, and provide a ton of energy off the bench. Not to mention if it doesn't work out, that's another expiring contract for ammo at the deadline.
And no matter what happens, he's better than Mike Wilks or Kevin Ollie.
@KingGondo
Though that third quarter nearly killed me.
Great win on the road--it's amazing to see these guys grow up before our eyes. I can count the number of cozy 8-15 point wins last year on my fingers, and we've already won TEN games by 8 points or more.
Fun to watch, and I appreciate not having a heart attack every time I watch them this year. :)
I saw that picture too. Awesome.