Jeff Green comes through again in the clutch as OKC wins 94-92

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
yeah pure firepower doesnt win championships.

Forgot to leave my email, eric4mayor6@yahoo.com

@Gunnar Þór
I have all Thunder games from this season (Huge fan, once they got Eric Maynor). Tell me your AIM (instant messenger) name and we can talk up, etc.

@kev
I wouldn't mind of those spreadsheets either. Also thanks for your reply on my question. Maybe you can give me some ideas on how do one on offense perhaps.

@f5alcon

Ha! ZING!

I guess they should modify the cliche to say that good offense beats good defense, but any offense beats no defense every time.

Thanks for the feedback Jax.

It may not be popular or necessary to have theme threads. But it is an alternative if you for some reason want a change of pace. Maybe you don't right now but maybe folks will in some future year.

Here are some other ideas I'll post then leave it:

You could have a "What's Presti thinking right now/" thread during a game. Or just say make your comment but try to thru a rhyme into it. Or use a song lyric. Or have a "Attack of the Stat Godzillas" thread vs a "No Stat(ist)ic At All" Thread. Let folks have it their way and see how many comments go in each. Maybe if you goof up you have to go to the other thread for a bit. Or try inviting a "guest star" to game threads. Or have a "Ciche-away" thread where you encourage them. Or have a Celebrity impersonation thread where you pretend to be that celebrity in the chat or at the game.

I don't know. Maybe lame or too much structure. Just ideas. Bubbles.

@kev
Right, great defense will win out, so why penalize a great defensive play if the shot ends up going in? I don't know if you follow baseball much, and, if you do, whether you keep up with sites like Fangraphs, but they try to stay as distanced as possible from results-oriented statistics/thinking because it's less predictive of future performance than other 'purer' measures.

I'm not trying to criticize; I'm pretty amazed at your commitment. Just arguing that I think the system could be more accurate.

Mark! :@kev
Do you happen to have a total defensive score for the season so far for each player?

yes (not including the first three games)

I have all the data on a spreadsheet, but I need to go back and add the minutes played to get the points/per minute - for me this is the key stat because it lets you compare starters to bench players . . . I should have it updated by this weekend if you want me to email you a copy . . .

@Jax Raging Bile Duct
it doesnt seem to work for don nelson, or dantoni, they can create playoff teams based on offense but not championship teams.

@kev

Do you happen to have a total defensive score for the season so far for each player?

Sammy :@kevOf course, it’s your system and I appreciate that you’ve thought about it. What I’m trying to argue is that past results don’t predict future success. Hitting a leaning three with a hand in your face is great, but if I’m the defense, I’m ecstatic if every possession ends with a leaning contested 24 footer.

so am I, and in the long run the great defense will win out . . .

thanks again, i enjoy the conversation - I came up with this idea in February or March last year, and I am still excited about it . . .

My grand plan is to score each team in the NBA at least three times this year, but with work and family I doubt I will have the time to do it - I may just comparer the top 8 or 10 teams to the Thunder and see what happens . . .

@kev
Of course, it's your system and I appreciate that you've thought about it. What I'm trying to argue is that past results don't predict future success. Hitting a leaning three with a hand in your face is great, but if I'm the defense, I'm ecstatic if every possession ends with a leaning contested 24 footer.

@Sammy

But the game of basketball isn't set up that way. Good offense will beat good defense every time. It isn't like that in football or baseball, where defense and pitching dictate so heavily.

You can play outstanding defense, the best of the league, and teams will still score 85 points on you.

Sammy :@kevI understand where you’re coming from, but what I’m saying is that an open squared up 15-footer should be scored the same every time regardless of whether the ball goes in or not. There was a defensive breakdown somewhere to allow that shot.
Just because I hit my gutshot on the river doesn’t change the fact that my call on the turn is a bad play.

I am just showing you the offensive corollary - I score it the same way -

If you are wide open and you shoot a fifteen footer and you miss you get zero points - that's results oriented as well . . .

again, I tried it both ways and I like this way better, but I appreciate the feedback . . .

that's why I have stated over and over that there is an element of subjectivity to this - but I like the system and I continue to tinker with the numbers . . .

@kev
I understand where you're coming from, but what I'm saying is that an open squared up 15-footer should be scored the same every time regardless of whether the ball goes in or not. There was a defensive breakdown somewhere to allow that shot.

Just because I hit my gutshot on the river doesn't change the fact that my call on the turn is a bad play.

Sammy :

kev :

gunnar þór :@KevHow come you don’t award points for a closely contested shot that goes in ? The defense was just as good even though he hit it.And then do you penalise a guy for giving up an uncontested shot even if it doesn’t go in ? Looks to me like that should be penalised.Basically what I’m trying to say, you should rate your system on how the play was actually defended and not on the results

for the same reason that they don’t award you points if you have perfect form on your jump shot – the only thing that matters is if it goes in . . .

Do you play poker at all? This is what’s called results-oriented thinking and it’s what keeps the fish at the table (and the volume shooters chucking contested fade-aways).

no - my point is that the scoreboard doesn't care about your shooting form . . .

that's short term - long term (obviously) if you have perfect form you will tend to score more than a guy with terrible form . . .

kev :

gunnar þór :@KevHow come you don’t award points for a closely contested shot that goes in ? The defense was just as good even though he hit it.
And then do you penalise a guy for giving up an uncontested shot even if it doesn’t go in ? Looks to me like that should be penalised.
Basically what I’m trying to say, you should rate your system on how the play was actually defended and not on the results

for the same reason that they don’t award you points if you have perfect form on your jump shot – the only thing that matters is if it goes in . . .

Do you play poker at all? This is what's called results-oriented thinking and it's what keeps the fish at the table (and the volume shooters chucking contested fade-aways).

Gunnar Þór :I found a torrent for the GSW @ OKC game and I’m downloading it now so if you have the spreadsheet and the score for the game you could send it to me at gunso1@gmail.com

will do it this evening about 8CST . . .

ryreeboo :
Was the game a little fuzzy last night or was it just my TV? I was watching it in HD and something seemed off… Maybe it was that awful looking court.

the feed was bad, I think it was the cameras in minnisota, they might not have a high def system there so they were just stretching the SD signal.

I think Crow had a brilliant idea. I like the creativity of posting comments to a game thread according to a theme.

I'd have a hard time prying my thoughts away from the game in order to participate well, but I guarantee I could come up with something during the commercials.

About the system Kev uses to grade. We've discussed before how it's hard to read a coach's mind on a defensive gameplan. So if Russell makes Tyreke Evans drive left, because that's the gameplan, but Tyreke happens to score anyway... how could you grade that fairly? It's just a judgement call. Over the course of the game, sound defensive principals should average out to a good score regardless of any gameplanning that might disrupt the normal plan. You know, sometimes you purposefully dare Shaq to take that uncontested 18 footer. But those types of plays aren't always obvious.

Ultimately, the coaching staff would be the only ones who could grade a contest play by play, since they know what they're asking their players to do overall, and game by game, matchup by matchup. Also, they're the only ones who knows the defensive priorities.

Until that happens (which it never will), we have what Kev does, and overall I think it works well. Honestly, if it weren't for Kev saying so, I'd think Krstic was garbage... err... I mean basketball challenged.

Was the game a little fuzzy last night or was it just my TV? I was watching it in HD and something seemed off... Maybe it was that awful looking court.

I found a torrent for the GSW @ OKC game and I'm downloading it now so if you have the spreadsheet and the score for the game you could send it to me at gunso1@gmail.com

@kev
Yeah I realise that you would have to take into account things like you want Shaq to shoot a 3 even though it's uncontested. I would try and recognize which player the defender would be guarding and which options he really has and try and figure out what the gameplan was by noticing trends on who they give up shots too. Probably undoable for one man over a whole season, however would be interesting to check out one game just to see how close it is to your breakdown even though the sample size would be too small to really mean much.

kev :

gunnar þór :@kevIf there is a place where you can download a full game somewhere on the internet and if you could send me the sheet on how you evaluate defensive plays I could take the time and check out one game according to those things I mentioned and see if there would be a big difference in the score

I don’t know if there is a place to download a game – but I can email you the spreadsheet of a game . . .

also, pretend you were guarding Doug Gottlieb - the coach probably told you to back off and let him shoot the jumper - so to penalize a guy for not contesting the shot wouldn't be wise - I actually did it your way last year, but I revised it - I think the current way is better for reasons I explained above . . .

gunnar þór :@kevIf there is a place where you can download a full game somewhere on the internet and if you could send me the sheet on how you evaluate defensive plays I could take the time and check out one game according to those things I mentioned and see if there would be a big difference in the score

I don't know if there is a place to download a game - but I can email you the spreadsheet of a game . . .

Mark! :Wow! Quite a backlash against criticism on this thread. Here’s a suggestion for everyone: Stop trying to tell other fans how to be fans.
Some of us will love everything about the team and any negativity directed at any aspect of the franchise — whether it’s someone on the roster, a ball boy or the coach — is taken as a direct affront against a loved one. THAT’S OKAY. We need these fans!
Some of us will always want the team to be better. If we go 81-1 someday and sweep the playoffs, some people will STILL be looking for ways for our team to improve, to carry their success into the next season. THAT’S OKAY TOO. We need these fans too!
This is a great blog. There are a lot of very opinionated people on here. Debate is healthy. But don’t take it personally. And especially don’t start attacking other people.
It’s possible to disagree with statistics and be excited about a player. It’s possible to be disappointed with a player’s performance and still like them. These two things are not mutually exclusive.

Definite smart thought of the week! I'm GAP and I approve this message. :-)

@kev
If there is a place where you can download a full game somewhere on the internet and if you could send me the sheet on how you evaluate defensive plays I could take the time and check out one game according to those things I mentioned and see if there would be a big difference in the score

gunnar þór :@kevYes but you can’t measure the defense purely on the results, you can make a great defensive play on the post and the other guy still scores simply because sometimes the ball just goes in now matter how unlikely it was.
For example (and excuse my abololeration on your english language it’s my third language so it might be hard for you to understand what I’m trying to say) A guy posts you up, you taka away alll his options excluding that he can still throw the ball behind his head and he makes that basket – according to your breakdown he would get a minus.
However in that same play you give him every option available and let him go in for an uncontested dunk but he still misses it and he would not get penalised for that.
I recommend the Shane Battier article which was in the NY times i think about these kind of things, Shane recognizes that he can only do so much on defense and the best way to play defense is to try and force the man into his worst position and let the law of averages take over, there’s not much else you can do on defense, to me it looks like your breakdowns, as good as they though are, simply don’t take those things into account and therefore are too incomplete.
Great job though on putting in the time, those were only my 2 cents (I thinks that’s your way of saying it) in how you could evaluate the breakdown even better.

thank you for the feedback . . .

@kev
Yes but you can't measure the defense purely on the results, you can make a great defensive play on the post and the other guy still scores simply because sometimes the ball just goes in now matter how unlikely it was.

For example (and excuse my abololeration on your english language it's my third language so it might be hard for you to understand what I'm trying to say) A guy posts you up, you taka away alll his options excluding that he can still throw the ball behind his head and he makes that basket - according to your breakdown he would get a minus.

However in that same play you give him every option available and let him go in for an uncontested dunk but he still misses it and he would not get penalised for that.

I recommend the Shane Battier article which was in the NY times i think about these kind of things, Shane recognizes that he can only do so much on defense and the best way to play defense is to try and force the man into his worst position and let the law of averages take over, there's not much else you can do on defense, to me it looks like your breakdowns, as good as they though are, simply don't take those things into account and therefore are too incomplete.

Great job though on putting in the time, those were only my 2 cents (I thinks that's your way of saying it) in how you could evaluate the breakdown even better.

This is the kind of situation where having a messaage board would be nice. I know it's been brought up with Royce before, and I think he's said he'd think about it? But with a message board there could be a whole thread for talking about what different players need to work on, a thread for venting frustrations with players, and a seperate one for venting our enthusiasm for how well the team is doing. I think we all feel a little of all of that at times, and it would be nice to be able to do it all without "crossing the streams" as Egon might say. It would keep tensions down around here a lot, too, I think.

Still, they are a lot of work to maintain and keep trolls out and stuff, so I understand the cons to them also. Either way, I think this is a great community. :D

Mark! :Wow! Quite a backlash against criticism on this thread. Here’s a suggestion for everyone: Stop trying to tell other fans how to be fans.
Some of us will love everything about the team and any negativity directed at any aspect of the franchise — whether it’s someone on the roster, a ball boy or the coach — is taken as a direct affront against a loved one. THAT’S OKAY. We need these fans!
Some of us will always want the team to be better. If we go 81-1 someday and sweep the playoffs, some people will STILL be looking for ways for our team to improve, to carry their success into the next season. THAT’S OKAY TOO. We need these fans too!
This is a great blog. There are a lot of very opinionated people on here. Debate is healthy. But don’t take it personally. And especially don’t start attacking other people.
It’s possible to disagree with statistics and be excited about a player. It’s possible to be disappointed with a player’s performance and still like them. These two things are not mutually exclusive.

post of the year . . .

thank you . . .

gunnar þór :@KevHow come you don’t award points for a closely contested shot that goes in ? The defense was just as good even though he hit it.
And then do you penalise a guy for giving up an uncontested shot even if it doesn’t go in ? Looks to me like that should be penalised.
Basically what I’m trying to say, you should rate your system on how the play was actually defended and not on the results

for the same reason that they don't award you points if you have perfect form on your jump shot - the only thing that matters is if it goes in . . .

@Vince

I get caught up in the moment like everyone else does during the games..

I'll try better to keep it cleaner, I shouldn't call the players garbage, you're right. :)

@James
Green gets a lot of playtime with the bench without Durant as well.

Wow! Quite a backlash against criticism on this thread. Here's a suggestion for everyone: Stop trying to tell other fans how to be fans.

Some of us will love everything about the team and any negativity directed at any aspect of the franchise -- whether it's someone on the roster, a ball boy or the coach -- is taken as a direct affront against a loved one. THAT'S OKAY. We need these fans!

Some of us will always want the team to be better. If we go 81-1 someday and sweep the playoffs, some people will STILL be looking for ways for our team to improve, to carry their success into the next season. THAT'S OKAY TOO. We need these fans too!

This is a great blog. There are a lot of very opinionated people on here. Debate is healthy. But don't take it personally. And especially don't start attacking other people.

It's possible to disagree with statistics and be excited about a player. It's possible to be disappointed with a player's performance and still like them. These two things are not mutually exclusive.

Ok since Green seems to be the topic that's all the rage on this board, I just want to make sure I make my position clear on him:

I do NOT want him traded. I want him on this team. I let his rookie contract run out and if he is willing to re-sign for a reasonable amount we keep him (I'm thinking about $5mil/year). But just because he is on our team does not mean we stop looking for a legitimate starting PF. The long term role for Green needs to be like a Toni Kukoc, Lamar Odom type versatile sf hybrid 6th man on this team

@RedDirt717

I would wear this shirt everyday. I honestly don't think I would ever take it off.

@Kev
How come you don't award points for a closely contested shot that goes in ? The defense was just as good even though he hit it.

And then do you penalise a guy for giving up an uncontested shot even if it doesn't go in ? Looks to me like that should be penalised.

Basically what I'm trying to say, you should rate your system on how the play was actually defended and not on the results

I was going to point out that Green's defensive "game saving play" was only necessary because he and Westbrook fought over the inbound pass, but I'm afraid it will set Justin off some more.

Seriously, did Jeff Green steal a girl from him at some point?

MartzMimic :I’m a Green fan, but I wouldn’t say that he is the leader. If you follow the guys on Twitter, it’s usually one of the others who organize their outings on the road and activities at home. Jeff’s likely to be the one napping and watching old movies.

Maybe he doesn't set up the recreational events, but Green is the one most likely to send the guys a tweet urging them to get to the gym.

justin :@Chef
If Jeff Green is so good, how come our team outscores the opposition by 17.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench? How come we get outscored when he’s in the game? How come he’s below average relative to other starting PF’s in almost every relevant measurement?
I respect your opinion of Jeff Green’s basketball skills (not mine, though.. are you seriously playing that card?), but it’s still a fact that the team performs better when he’s not on the court. How is he helping the team if the team is better when he’s not in the game? For a team that’s six games over .500, it’s tough to be a -54 net points on the year. But Jeff Green is.

Maybe because our bench is pretty darn good. When he goes out our reserves are for the the most part playing against their reserves and our bench is pretty stout right now. Especially since KD usually stays in with our bench against the opponents reserves. Our bench + KD against the opponents bench = + a bunch!

I'm a Green fan, but I wouldn't say that he is the leader. If you follow the guys on Twitter, it's usually one of the others who organize their outings on the road and activities at home. Jeff's likely to be the one napping and watching old movies.

On a similar note, does anyone else get the idea that Maynor is the one most likely to get everyone in trouble? He's never said or done anything bad, but I just get the impression that he's more likely to push the boundaries.

@bball
Ahh...AK, Crow, Myk, Menace, Mr. Baker, Xteve, Seafan...good times...

We need a "PAUSE.....DOINT" tshirt and a "That's THUNDER Basketball" tshirt with brian davis' caricature on the back and a thumbs up.

I would buy and wear said shirt daily.

Just be happy that you don't have an "AK1984" on your forum.

That's a shout-out to all the old-school sonicscentral.com faithful!

Eric4Mayor :@KevQuality stuff, kev. I appreciate your break down each players defensive nightly basic. But how does your rating work? Also do you re-watch the games or this is off strictly off seeing it live?

thanks for the kind words -

there is NO way I could do this without Tivo - I'm really a numbers guy, my visual skills of observation stink enough as is . . . sometimes I will rewind a play ten times to assess if it is a scoring play . . .

Due to time constraints, I will give you a brief overview . . .

when we are on defense, three things happen -

1) the other team turns the ball over

2) the other team shoots and misses

3) the other team shoots and makes it

In case #1, was it turnover forced? If so, I award a defender points. Also, I award a “loose ball” point to a defender if it was a steal or a block that was up for grabs.

In case #2, was the shot “closely contested”? Was there a defender close to the shooter with an arm extended that was close to the ball or the vision of the shooter? If so then that defender gets a point. I also award points for deflections even if the other team retains possession.

In case #3 (the most subjective) was there a defender at fault? For example, If a player hits a fadeaway over a defender’s outstretched arms, then there is no penalty. I penalize for

• Giving up penetration (without a legitimate pick
• Losing sight of your man in rotation
• Switching causing a severe mismatch of which the other team takes advantage
• Bad transition defense (trotting upcourt or trying to steal the ball instead of getting back
• Going underneath a shooter on a pick and roll
• Getting posted up down low
• Not blocking out when help was not necessary
• Trailing (severely) a down pick or baseline pick

I hope that helps . . . one of these days I will write a full length explanation . . .

(Programming note – I admit up front that this is a crude and (somewhat) subjective way to individually score players on the defensive end) but it is better than what we have now – which is the +/- system that a) combines offense and defense and b) inextricably links performances of teammates or worse, c) merely saying “so and so is a good defender because he won a defensive award three years ago” . . .

@Justin
One thing regular posters have to guard against is the Gallagher Syndrome. Sledge-o-matic was unique the first couple times you saw him smash a watermelon, but the same thing over and over got old pretty quick.

You make a lot of great points, and few of us would disagree that Green has significant flaws. But those points are lost because as soon as we see your name on a post, we know Sledge-o-matic is coming.

@Kev
Quality stuff, kev. I appreciate your break down each players defensive nightly basic. But how does your rating work? Also do you re-watch the games or this is off strictly off seeing it live?

Can't sleep at the moment.

Had an idea.

Maybe I'll run with it and see what folks think.

A season can get long and some points might get repeated. I know I have been guilty of that.

What to do?

Maybe try an themed Alt Game Thread for a bit of variety
and a standard game thread where the normal stuff rules.
or a complete replacement if folks are into it.

Some Alt Game thread ideas might be

What if Ernie, Chuck and Kenny were calling the game?
All comments have to be identified as being from one of them and try to make it realistic and funny.

or a Thunderdome where you invite the opposing fans to come and cross-talk, hopefully smart or funny or something

or "Heard that" / "I Ain't Eva Heard That"
where for every comment somebody responds with one or the other. Go for the overplayed or the novel.

A Seinfield edition with the voices from there

What's my line- where you try to use lines from movies, TV or somewhere else in a basketball way

Or "Hot Chick". Every basket, name a hot chick. I guess you could use a 1pt , 2pt and 3 pt scale. If you didn't feel too silly or out of line.

Or. maybe to balance it, a Ladies Night where all the chat is from the ladies unless they ask for input

Money vs D'Oh for good plays / bad plays

"Scottie On Fire" / "Scotty Don't" (tip of hat to Dr. Evil)

Or you could do something similar but instead you have to say "That's Thunder Basketball" or something sorta the opposite

Real-time chat with the Broingtons
where al' the talk has to be what you think the players are saying to each other for real or should say or should say if they were just having fun.

Or if I was an Announcer
where folks take turns and say what they want to say, but maybe a little different, as if they were calling the game for TV

Or other stuff that I thought of and am now forgetting

Or maybe dueling threads separating "warring" factions, if only for a game.

Offense vs Defense

Pro-Green / Anti Green

Were Playoff Bound Because vs Not

or whatever

Maybe I'll stop and try to go back to sleep...

But this is fair game for other ideas or any feedback

Later

IMO this is basically the same as when The Don started posting on this site.. At first he created quite an uproar but eventually most of us have gotten used to him and his live and die by every play attitude (Like when he claimed RW could never become a serviceable PG.). The only difference is that Justin has more substance to his posts with all his stats and such. I will admit to being irritated by his compelling argument against Green just as much as any other guy.However, I think we all feel a little threatened by the reality of his posts and that is why we feel the need to make what are usually ridiculous arguments against him. As Vince said, he could do himself a favor by maybe limiting every 5th post to bashing Green though :)

@justin
I respect your opinions -- you're obviously well-informed and you make many good points about the team and its players (including some guy named Green, I think he's a guard or something).

That said, two points:

1. We heard you the first time. And, on a game thread, it's annoying to root for the team and see negative comments every time we hit "refresh".

2. When you say things like Westbrook and Green are "garbage", yes, that's going to be polarizing.

I think the disagreements with you are less over substance (my brain agrees with you and you make some very good points about Green and others) than with style (Jeff Green is awesome and I don't like you talking down on my boys).