Kevin Durant is obviously awesome, but not always in the fourth quarter

FROM DARON

You guys all know that Presti plays Moneyball with the roster. He's not going to sign big AL for 40 million since he doesn't play defense, period. He would spend the bucks on somebody who does (Thabo's extension) the failed Tyson Chandler trade (he used to really protect the basket), traded for Kyle Weaver, Etan Thomas etc. He showed interest and inquired about Gortat before he signed with Dallas. But he won't even consider Al.

He wouldn't do it. NO way NO how.

And a coach that gets him to shoot inside more and mid-range a good deal less.

If you take Jefferson you better have the right pieces to put around him. Whatever they are. Probably a defensive center. And a pentrating, skillful, probably veteran passer.

@Aenema
We have no shot at winning the playoffs because we aren't a championship team if we stand pat. That's really the issue. I don't expect a single trade makes a championship team this year regardless, but I'd hate to see us stand pat when we have so many assets and never again have the chance to add that missing piece.

justin :
Al Jefferson is not ‘too expensive’. Even if he played zero defense, he’s been one of the best offensive big men in the NBA. He’s definitely worth his contract if he plays the way he played the last two seasons, there’s no doubt..
How you can not like three years of Al Jefferson for ~$40 million and you seem to be OK with $100 million for Chris Bosh is beyond me.

well if he plays zero defense I wouldn't want him on this team.

@The DON
It's not the worst thing in the world to just stay put and be patient. We came into this season barely hoping to make the playoffs. Let's be honest, even if we make the playoffs, we have no shot at winning them. It's a huge step, but this team is still very young. Look at how much we've improved in one off season, just give them another one to see how they do. We have some really nice pieces on this team that just need some time to develop. We have 3 rookies playing significant time and another one that's just starting to get some looks. Let's see where they go from here. Presti's strategy is built on long term development. You are calling for a complete disruption of all of his work, which is what has gotten us to this point in the first place. Just give them time and see how they do. These kids aren't finished, they still have a lot of potential.

@justin

1) Chris Bosh is superior to Jefferson

2) I never once stated I would be ok with anything close to $100 for Bosh, who I have on numerous occasion tagged as a 2nd tier star

@justin
his numbers havnt been as good since his injury, 17.7 PPG and 9.1 RPG. last year he was 23.1PPG and 11RPG, now thats not all his fault nor horrible, but id rather wait for the free agency bonanza

justin :
Our whole team plays poorly in fourth quarters, especially on offense. It’s a coaching problem, our whole philosophy offensively changes to end games and I’ve written enough about my opinion on this ’strategy’ to fill a book.

This is my take as well. However, the players share the blame, but to a lesser degree.

I think if James really can master the PnR, and the team learns to play off of it, that will really help. And of course, there is no post option yet on this team, but that's been discussed ad nauseam .

Al Jefferson is not 'too expensive'. Even if he played zero defense, he's been one of the best offensive big men in the NBA. He's definitely worth his contract if he plays the way he played the last two seasons, there's no doubt..

How you can not like three years of Al Jefferson for ~$40 million and you seem to be OK with $100 million for Chris Bosh is beyond me.

Our whole team plays poorly in fourth quarters, especially on offense. It's a coaching problem, our whole philosophy offensively changes to end games and I've written enough about my opinion on this 'strategy' to fill a book.

@f5alcon

Agreed.

So what do we do? Do you guys really support staying pat? I know being patient is supposed to be the "hip" thing to do right now, but for god's sake this team is ready to make the playoffs NOW. We need a right piece or two and we can be deadly. But I can't think of any good scenarios right now. Bosh is the #1 ideal player but we can't get him until the summer unless we want to risk having him walk after this season

@The DON
yeah he is too expensive for not playing defense

f5alcon :@The
DON
his contract is 12m this season 13m the next 14m the one after and 15m the last year

*THROWS UP*

There is no way in HELL he will be on this team then

@Dustin
Not midway through; it was during the first quarter when he was sitting out after the 2 quick fouls. No clue why.

Did anyone notice that KD changed shoes midway through the game?

Jax Raging Bile Duct :@f5alcon

Can you find RW’s minutes played per quarter as well? It’s hard to infer how he performs assist-wise without taking that into account.

yes

1st qtr 9.2 m ast/min 0.22
2nd qtr 7.8 a/m 0.2
3rd qtr 10.4 a/m 0.24
4th qtr 8.3 a/m 0.13

@The DON

his contract is 12m this season 13m the next 14m the one after and 15m the last year

@f5alcon

Can you find RW's minutes played per quarter as well? It's hard to infer how he performs assist-wise without taking that into account.

RW assists by qtr
1st 2.1
2nd 1.6
3rd 2.5
4th 1.1

@The DON, @andrew

I think RW has a part to play in this scenario, but I think it's small in comparison to our offensive play calls and the opponents defensive scheme.

Andrew, faulting Russell for KD's turnovers is bordering on silly. RW can't help it when he gives the ball to KD, who chooses to dribble 42 times through the middle of the lane where he gets stripped all the time.

The team does not run many double screens for Durant late in the game, probably because they take a ton of energy to accomplish. The one way to get open without much energy is to go to the isolation play and let Durant get the ball 6 feet outside the 3 point line, which they do a lot. Our offensive schemes are not hard to defend if you dare one or two guys to shoot open shots. We've seen a transition in the last 3 weeks though. Several times we've seen Harden run the PnR exclusively in the 4th quarter. I would imagine part of the reason for doing that is just what I mentioned, that it's easy to defend a team with one dangerous shooter.

I think where RW comes in to play moreso than any mentioned so far, is that if he ever gets to the point where his dribble-drives into the paint end up in converted layups, KD will find himself open. Especially if Harden masters that PnR. Once you have 3 guys that you consider dangerous, you can't get away with doubling and over helping on one of them.

I know in the other thread I was being a tad vicious at the idea of al jefferson, but I'm coming around to it.

What is his contract like exactly? If it's reasonable I'd consider being open to us acquiring him. But he is a horrific defender and our need for a post defender does not in any way get solved by his acquisition. Although he would bring some desperately needed defensive rebounding and post scoring that we need.

This is exactly the point where Jeff Green needs to step up. If you are earning your starter minutes you need to be the #2 option when the game is on the line. Nuff said.

The other night against the Hornets, they clearly had drawn up a play for Harden, which didn't work out. The DIME article about it was spot on--http://dimemag.com/2010/01/kevin-durant-needs-an-ally-mcdyess-isnt-done-and-more/

That doesn't deny the fact that Durant appears tentative sometimes, and that Westbrook has a tendency to put his horns down and charge on ahead! That combination of traits I think explains the lion's share of our late game misfires.

All I'm saying is, I find it troubling that his point guard has yet to grasp the concept that it is his #1 job to find and create for him. When RW starts looking for KD as much as he does Nenad for some reason, then KD will start having better 4th quarters. RW seems to be absolutely obsessed with passing to Nenad. I would love for him to channel that obsession away from NoNads and onto KD where it belongs

f5alcon :@Joe

lol if thats the case he should be trying to get out with a win, maybe the team needs a no action unless you win from women to get their effort up

Totally. If you don't play well, you don't get to play after the game.

f5alcon :@The
DON
RW doesnt affect his lower FG%, higher turnover rate. Westbrook only affects the number of shots KD gets, the rest is all KD. Another reason for KD having less shots is that he usually site 3 or 4 mins of the quarter.

False. If RW is not setting Durant up with easy looks, then Durant is having to create for himself, resulting in more turnovers and more difficult shots. More difficult shots result in lower field goal percentage. Also, is there a stat out there for percentage of points assisted per quarter? That would be another great measuring stick for the RW-KD 4th quarter relationship IMO.

@Joe
lol if thats the case he should be trying to get out with a win, maybe the team needs a no action unless you win from women to get their effort up

yeah i agree its a factor, but whether or not its the main factor im not sure.

Also i dont know how many games we lost in the 4th, for the most part our 4th quarter performance, usually on defense has been great.

It absolutely is the fact that the opponent doesn't fear our other shooters, allowing them to bracket and double KD. That's why Harden was drafted, but he's still a rookie and doesn't know how to impose his will on the offensive end yet consistently.

That's why Brooks needs to get Maynor into the game as another shooter. He is a good shooter. He just needs to find a way.

Either that is the reason, or perhaps KD is just hoping to get the game over quickly so he can get to Hooters to see his girl. :O)

@f5alcon

I did not disregard KD's faults, but you also cannot disregard his point guard's tendency to not look for him as well as his inability to set him up and create good shots for him as a factor in his up and down 4th quarter performances this year

@The DON
RW doesnt affect his lower FG%, higher turnover rate. Westbrook only affects the number of shots KD gets, the rest is all KD. Another reason for KD having less shots is that he usually site 3 or 4 mins of the quarter.

yeah a lot of teams let RW shoot and so he does, maybe we need to run a 2 PG lineup in the 4th, having maynor and westbrook out there, maybe then durant can get the ball easier. Unless we are going up against big SGs we really dont need thabo on the floor, put a more offensive group on the floor, for the most part we are playing a slow pace when we are winning are limiting their possessions so even if we are trading baskets the clock is ticking down.

What is our team FG% from quarter to quarter? Teams generally lock in on defense a bit more when the game is on the line (in the 4th barring a blowout), and I have to wonder how much that affects the Thunder, who are an already below average offensive team.

A large part of KD fading in 4th quarters can be attributed to RW and his affinity for activating hero-mode. He has frozen KD out in far too many 4th quarters this season, and a lot of times it was in games where KD was hot throughout the game.

A very large variable in KD becoming a better 4th quarter performer is RW understanding that it is his primary job to set up his team's go-to player and make his life on offense easier, instead of being an obstacle, which he has been far too many times this year.

I don't even notice him touching the ball much in the 4th quarter, which means he probably needs to do better at demanding the ball. Then again, I don't typically notice Westbrook appear like he considers passing much in close and late games (likely because defenses are daring him to shoot--maybe "double dog" daring, because he doesn't back down).

It seems like they always try to give kd the ball early in the possession and make him create his own shot; instead of setting up screens and dishing him the ball. I hate when he gets the ball and is forced to create a shot and eventually just shoots up a prayer. In the last minutes of the game it seems like everyone just stands around and watches him shoot up a prayer instead of getting him open.

Article of the Year award

This is something I've always been thinking, but you finally put numbers to it.

Excellent article