Jeff Green, home vs. away

I'm not an expert but I tend to think that moving the game away from home.

You shouldn't be shooting the three if you cant hit more than thirty percent of them . . .

Platoon like in baseball. If Green sucks on the road, bench him and start Collison. When he can bring up his game on the road, brng him back in to the starting lineup.

@girlballer

I get that. Like I said, I'm not looking for a sophisticated offense right now. I understand and accept that defense comes first. But our playbook is eeeeehh...

*Westbrook creates his own shot from top of the key
*Durant creates his own shot from top of the key
*Durant curling off a screen
*Krstic pick and pop
*Thabo/Green/Harden stand around in the corner and catch a pass if the defense gets lazy

What % of our offense do those 5 plays represent?

I also disagree a little about transition offense. I usually see whoever got control of the ball keep it, for better or worse. And if they do happen to pass it, it usually would've just been better had they kept it or they made the decision too early/late to pass. Not saying I've never seen good passing, but that doesn't seem to be the norm.

...move the ball COMMA operate a mean little transition....geez

@Mark!--I believe it is a philisophical approach by the coaching staff, and really the entire organization for that matter. You can go down the path of "defense wins ballgames" and "let your defense create your offense" or you can follow the Pheonix Suns/Golden State run-n-gun and let the other team chase you approach!

I would argue that our guys DO move the ball operate a mean little transition passing scheme when they are playing well, but as young teams go, the whole trick is putting it together for 4 quarters. And I would add it is HORRIFICALLY complex to do everything well--defense, transition--outside shooting--finishing @ the rim--that's why the teams that can often have those nifty little silk banner thingies hanging from the rafters!

(**as I believe we will someday)

@Vince

I don't get the whole "focus only on defense" thing. I understand it in the context of Ibaka; he's only been playing basketball for a few years. But why should our whole offensive scheme be so vanilla? We play top NBA tier defense and rec league offense; it doesn't make sense to me.

I'm not suggesting we should have been trying to plug in the triangle or Princeton offense or something. You can keep it simple and still make it worlds better than it is. How about teaching the kiddies the pick and roll? Or how to move off the ball? Maybe a little transition passing? Doesn't have to be complex.

Royce: Cool NBA Transaction Flowcharts that someone (I guess Wyn Douglas) put together:

http://wyndouglas.com/projects/flowcharts.htm

He needs glasses

@Boots

Bah haha I just read I am a towel.... hehe good reference though :)

There's a huge luckbox factor in a race this close, but on talent alone, I think Memphis and OKC are in, with NOH and Phoenix headed to the lottery. Houston could snag a spot as well at the expense of Portland or (as crazy as it sounds) San Antonio.

So apparently Durant spent the summer on his friend's couch, he also drive a minivan, and wants to win way more than getting a big check. Maybe we convince him to take a big pay cut so we can sign Bosh. Thats probably the only way it would happen, sign the combined for $30 mil a year in their prime. We wouldn't do that to KD though.
Meanwhile in reality, Memphis again showed how well they play at home, beating the lakers tonight. I think Memphis and OKC are the bottom 2 playoff seeds. Phoenix has some issues. And the Hornets won't be competing without Paul.

@justin
Houston is fading ridiculously fast, if they don't get considerable help at the trade deadline I don't see them making the playoffs. I don't see any way the Hornets can survive losing Chris Paul for a month and still make the playoffs. That leaves 9 teams for 8 spots. I like Memphis more than us and there entire fortunes dont rest on the shoulder of one player. Lets face it Durant is due for a couple of bad games and we havent shown the ability to overcome it when he does. We are 0-5 when he scores less than 20 points. Also, Memphis hasn't really been inconsistent. They started slow (1-8) but since then have gone 25-13. Finally, I think we could still end up as the 8th seed with phoenix being the odd man out.

That's a strong statement.. the West is crowded right now and Memphis has been on a tear, you don't think they'll come back down to earth? I think we have a better shot than Memphis since we've been relatively consistent all season and we play defense.

It's funny because Zach Randolph would be the perfect kind of forward next to Kevin Durant and we could have had him for peanuts.

It was the Lakers 8th roadie in 12 days, I wouldn't read too much into it. However, I do think the Grizz are a lock for the playoffs barring trade/injury.

Also, I don't feel so bad about what Z-Bo's done to us this year. 22 points and 17 boards against the Laker bigs. Who knew?

First round this year should be a pretty amazing show. I'd be surprised if we don't see at least a few 7-gamers.

@justin
I was watching this game. Really ugly all around until the last few minutes. Rudy Gay is cold-blooded. Lake show had the ball down two with 23 seconds left on the clock, Kobe took it up the floor, dribbles around till ten-seconds left, Pau comes up to set the screen, Kobe scrambles, is doubled, fakes the shot and swings it to a wide open Artest, back iron.

Memphis just beat the Lakers..

@Sammy
Yeah, that's not good. I'm actually not real happy with Brooks' decisions coming out of timeouts and at end of games. Like I said, I'll give him one more camp (coaches develop just like players do) but I'm a bit wary at this point.

@Vince
I saw a quote after the Nugget's game that Brooks apparently uses a lot of George Karl's end of game plays because "they're good plays." Suddenly, everything became clear. Karl is a great defensive coach, but his end of game decision making is unquestionably his greatest weakness.

@justin
I would argue (from observation and experience at lower levels, don't have the stats and I ain't looking them up :) ) that the mid-range game and, particularly, finishing at the rim would be the biggest adjustments moving from the Pac-10 to the NBA. So I think that bodes well for Harden's growth going forward.

As for the offense's struggles, I think there's a real possibility that Brooks just hasn't FOCUSED on offense yet, as opposed to not having the ability to be a good offensive coach. As good a pure point guard as he was, I would think he'd be a damn fine offensive mind. We already know he's not coaching up Ibaka much on the offensive end, and I wonder if something similar doesn't translate to the team as a whole. I'd like to see what the team does off a full off-season and camp into 2010-11 before I'm hollering for Tex Winter to come in and run the offense. (And if I have to live through this for another 14 months, I will be hollering.)

*there = their

I guess I saw the Curry/Gordon comp more due to the fact that they're both undersized twos who are both adept one-on-one players and they can both get there shot off with ease. Harden, despite his size, seems to need to labor more to get separation. Interesting numbers though. With Harden's size and passing ability, there's no reason for him to not turn into a terror driving the lane. If he hits his ceiling, holy crap, we would need only league average production at the 5 for this team to be a contender.

Steph Curry doesn't get to the line like Ben Gordon does or like James Harden does.. he's much more of a spot up shooter. Harden, like Gordon in his rookie year, has shown a knack for breaking down a defense, but he struggles finishing consistently (like Gordon did early in his career). Gordon and Harden actually have identical rookie FTA/36. Harden's got the size to absorb contact.. it's one of the things he's doing well.

I agree on the ranges, there. It'd be very disappointing if Harden is the type not to work on his game and add things offensively.. I've noticed recently he's been incorporating mid range jumpers without much success so I think he's trying to adapt to the NBA.

Harden will be devastating with a mid range game. He creates a lot of space with his long arms but usually wastes it by bull rushing to the paint. A Paul Pierce step back jumper would be easy money for Harden..

I think we'd all be pretty ecstatic if Harden turned into Gordon (minus the volume shooting). Skill-wise, I don't see it at all though. I actually think Curry's probably a better comp for Gordon, though with better passing ability.

Anyway, I agree with the larger point re: Harden. It's pretty impossible to tell what happens with Harden.
His floor: it turns out he was simply an early developer and he doesn't have nearly as much growth in him as we would all like to believe. His shot-selection/efficiency doesn't improve like we expect and he becomes a pretty average bench guy/mediocre starter. Bounces around the league forever and has a long forgettable career.
His ceiling: borderline all-star. A third or fourth option on a championship team that would immediately be the best or second best player on a bad team. He learns how to use his big body and length to score efficiently at the hoop. Learns how to draw fouls, can consistently knock down a pull up three off the screen, develops a solid in-between game along with solid assist/rebound numbers for a 2.

Ben Gordon is actually a very close comparison as a rookie to James Harden.. almost uncanny as far as production is concerned..

@justin

'The only player to shoot 37.5% from three less than 40% from the field and higher than 50% TS'

@Sammy

I don't mean as a compliment to Krstic, I mean i.e. bring in David Lee (or one of the other PF's) and find a cheap C that can play defense to stick next to them.. I don't think anyone sees Krstic as a long term piece.

James Harden is the X-Factor of our future success, IMO. His production right now is really ambiguous.. obviously he's talented, but what he accomplishes this offseason into the next will tell us a lot about what kind of play he's going to be.

The only player in the last 20 years to shoot 37.5% from the field and still maintain a TS higher than 50% in their rookie year is Kirk Hinrich. James Harden's much younger than Hinrich was, but a similar progression would bode well for our team (although Hinrich has since fallen off the table, he was really good at one point).

Guys like Ben Gordon and Cuttino Mobley come to mind also as players who struggled early on finishing but rounded out their games and became more efficient scorers.

If James Harden can start and contribute 38%+ from 3pt and shores up his in between game, then we can worry a bit less about our eFG% and run with Kevin Durant / Jeff Green / Defensive Center. I don't think for a minute that Thabo is envisioned as the starter at SG long term. James Harden's very skilled offensively and if he makes the right kind of progression our offense will be O.K.

Green has the potential to be a starting four on a contender, but Krstic could never start at center for a championship team. Trading the guy with more upside in order to bring in a complement to Krstic makes no sense, even if true 4s are easier to find than true 5s.

@dork
I was goin for an obscure South Park quote there, from the good ole' character of Towelie. :(

When Green and Durant are on the floor together, our team performs much better when Collison is the center. Our offense runs better, and our defense is better (especially defensive rebounding). Two of our best, most used lineups are Russ-Harden-Durant-Green-Collison and Russ-Sefolosha-Durant-Green-Collison.

@justin

I agree that the problems could very well be coaching related. I'm always confused about the impact of coaches in the NBA. For the most part, coaches don't seem to have a whole lot of impact, especially not positive impact.

So on the one hand, I love Brooks because he has managed to have a HUGE positive impact on this team on the defensive end. Maybe it's the players' character or whatever, but that Brooks found so much traction is pretty special.

But he needs help on offense. That's fine; a head coach doesn't need to be an offensive genius. Jackson had Winter. Even Brown had Kuester last year. What on earth are the assistants doing? Can't we hire an offensive mind for an assistant?

i.e. get Jeff Green attacking the basket more.. get him mismatches on the perimeter.. use him in pick and roll situations. He's very skilled offensively yet his primary function in our offense seems to be shooting long jump shots (which is not one of his best skills).

It might be viable down the road if Kevin Durant makes that type of progression. There's no reason for KD to make the slide to PF any time soon, and I was just saying in terms of historical impact he'd probably be better off there.. not necessarily the best thing for the team.

Like others I'd like to see how Jeff Green / Kevin Durant operate at the forward spots with a legitimate center to clean up defensive boards and maybe play defensive enforcer. I don't think this helps our main problem (FG shooting) but it'd be a good step in the right direction.

It'd just be easier IMO to replace Jeff Green in the PF rich NBA than it would be to find the perfect center to compliment him and Durant.. I'm starting to think that it's execution / coaching problems on offense that's causing our poor shooting #'s and that perhaps Green / Durant could be a successful forward pairing offensively if used correctly.

I like Jeff Green, I say he's a long term keeper. He might get better and become an all-star or be a great 6th man type. Good team player has some clutch in him and he's still young, just needs to get determined. Gerald Wallace is 30 years old, Green's only 24. He just needs another year or two to improve find his real niche. Don't trade Green. The Thunder are a good Big man and a sharpshooter reserve away from the finals.

@justin

So, let's say the Thunder decide to resign and keep Green instead of dishing him in a trade. I think we all know this is a probable scenario.

I believe you're of the opinion that Jeff could benefit from a situation that allows him to slide over to the SF position. He should be a decent rebounder for that position. You've said he could be a great defender at the 3. And he definitely has a good enough slashing game at the position as well.

Yesterday, you mentioned that for KD to be more efficient, he might have to slide over the PF position. Obviously, he has a little more bulking up to do to guard at PF, but do you think this is something viable the team could do? What on earth does this team look like flip flopping Green and Durant? Especially if we can acquire a decent rebounder to play center?

@justin
Wins produced is very heavily influenced by rebounding. He gives basically the same value to points, rebounds and steals, so as you can imagine, Thabo doesn't do bad (he's a good rebounder and steal man), Durant is great at everything, and Green and Krstic are lite rebounders.

It's still a good metric though as far as "one number" metrics go.

Thought this is interesting: http://www.wagesofwins.com/AllTeamMid0910.html

Dave Berri's Wins Produced stats for all players / teams at the mid point of the season. I believe a WP48 of .100 is average. His metric looks very favorably upon Thabo Sefolosha and Serge Ibaka, does not rate Jeff Green or Nenad Krstic favoriably at all. Kevin Durant is obviously rated well. James Harden is the third best rookie guard (behind Lawson and Evans), Ibaka is the second best rookie forward (behind Blair). He projects us to 46 wins on the year.

@dork
The bad news is that Darren Collison is playing out of his mind in reserve. 17 points and 18 assists the other night in a win over Memphis.

@Boots

Oh soo many dirty towel jokes to be had there...

Noone else as happy as I am that paul went down... I mean basically eliminates one team from the playoff race... (its well known i'm not a paul fan :))

Royce check out the team's shot distribution home vs. road.. it might be a team wide thing where we're attempting more jump shots and not attacking the rim as much.

@justin

..ignore that comment about KD's splits I was looking at his 3PT%.. LOL

Interesting. I never would have expected Green to be the player getting road jitters.

@dork
...you're a towell!

And actually like doing this kind of random stuff, so I guess I am lazy this time :)

Jeff has to have a talk with whoever it was that convinced Josh Smith to stop shooting so many jumpers. He's been effective taking the ball to the rim, and he's a good FT shooter who doesn't get to the line enough.

That's a big gap in production but I think it's probably a coincidence. Jeff actually performed a bit better on the road last year..

One thing is for certain, Jeff is much more effective playing inside out basketball. When he starts shooting jumpers from the opening tip and trying to work in from there, it's usually not very successful. When he gets a couple to go near the basket early it usually means it's going to be a strong night for him.

But yeah it's probably coincidence. KD had a similar split last season, he shot under 38% on the road last year. I wouldn't look too much into it unless it becomes consistent over the course of multiple seasons..

@Boots

Be honest its not a time thing.... Your just lazy like the rest of us :)