(Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)
(UPDATE: Right on cue, Russell Westbrook has been named this week’s Western Conference Player of the Week.)
There is a reason you’re supposed to stay patient with young point guards. Common sense says they will progress. They will improve. Stay patient, stick to the plan and you will be rewarded.
And that’s exactly what’s happening with Russell Westbrook. Everyone likes to talk about what Kevin Durant has done over the last 24 games, but how about Westbrook (since the Eric Maynor deal): 16.4 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.9 rpg, 3.0 turnovers per game and 43 percent from the field. Right now, Westbrook is eighth in the league in assists (7.5 per game) and 20th among point guard in assist to turnover (2.36).
I mentioned before the season that this Oklahoma City squad was likely on track for around 35 wins unless Russell Westbrook started to make a leap into stardom. Well, I think he’s doing precisely that. Just like Durant a year ago, Westbrook is really making strides in the new year, even more so in February. The sample size is small, but in three games thus far this month, Westbrook is averaging 19.7 ppg, 9.7 apg, 8.0 rpg, 3.3 steals per game and only 1.7 turnovers per game. And he’s shooting over 47 percent from the field.
Rewind two months ago. Westbrook was a daily topic of Thunder discussion. Some said he’s not a point guard nor will he ever be. Some wondered where he could fit in with this team. Some wished for Ricky Rubio. We all wondered whether or not Westbrook was going to be the point guard you could rely upon down the stretch of an important game. Last week, he gave you three pretty good examples that yes, you can.
Derrick Rose is an All-Star and gets a ton of praise nationally, and deservedly so. But compare Westbrook’s numbers to Rose. Rose averages 19.9 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.8 rpg, shoots 47 percent from the floor and has an assists to turnover of 2.06. In a lot of ways, Westbrook is outperforming the All-Star Rose. Now, don’t get this twisted and think I’m saying Westbrook is better than Rose or something. But what I think should be pretty obvious is that Westbrook deserves more credit throughout the league for making a huge improvement in his second season. I still get questions about Westbrook being a point guard and if OKC should look for a more veteran presence. Heck, there was some questions a few weeks back wondering if Eric Maynor would be better starting at point with Westbrook off the ball. Thankfully, I think we’re nearing a close to those discussions.
For perspective’s sake, here are some other top point guards in their second seasons:
Player PPG APG RPG FG% TPG
Chris Paul 17.3 8.9 4.3 43.7 2.5
Deron Williams 16.2 9.3 3.3 45.6 3.1
Rajon Rondo 10.6 5.1 4.2 49.2 1.9
Jason Kidd 16.6 9.7 6.8 38.1 4.0
Russell Westbrook 16.2 7.5 5.0 40.8 3.2
And compare that to their numbers in their rookie campaigns:
Player PPG APG RPG FG% TPG
Chris Paul 16.1 7.8 5.1 43.0 2.3
Deron Williams 10.8 4.5 2.4 42.1 1.8
Rajon Rondo 6.4 3.8 3.7 41.8 1.8
Jason Kidd 11.7 7.7 5.4 38.5 3.2
Russell Westbrook 15.3 5.3 4.9 39.8 3.3
My point there isn’t saying, “Look! Russell Westbrook is going to be as good as them!” but it’s more saying, look Westbrook is right on track to be a really, really, really good point guard. Different guys blossom at different times, but it’s clear Westbrook has serious talent and right now, he’s blooming like sunflower in June. I’ll keep saying it over and over again: It’s easy to lose sight that this guy and this team is so young. He’s a 21-year-old second-year point guard. And he’s maturing into one of the 10 best in the entire league. With the recent injuries in the West, you could make a legitimate case that Westbrook should be an All-Star. Whoever gets chosen to replace Brandon Roy/Carmelo Anthony/Kobe Bryant will have a resume similar to, or not as good as Westbrook. It’s true.
He’s naturally progressing the way Sam Presti and Scott Brooks thought he would. He had some rough patches. He’ll have many more. The elite point men in this league aren’t flawless. They have bad games. But what Westbrook is doing is forgetting about those 2-12, five turnover nights and putting up a stellar line the next. And more importantly, he’s helping his club win. You hang with young point guards with talent and you’ll be rewarded. Any time you give a 21-year-old the ball for 35 minutes a game, he’s bound to screw up. But if you keep letting him have it and he’s willing to work and learn, you’ll reap the benefits.
Durant is getting a long look for Most Improved. Well, why not Westbrook? His maturation and progression is reason 1A as to why this team is eight games over and sitting in seventh in the West right now. Durant’s ascension into unquestioned superstardom is a huge part of it, but Westbrook has become a playmaker this team can rely upon in the late stages of a game. And plus, over the last few weeks, his defense has jumped by leaps and bounds, accented nicely by his eight steals against Golden State.
But here we are a little past the midseason point, approaching the All-Star break and it appears things are just about set in Thunderland. Kevin Durant is the superstar he’s supposed to be. Jeff Green is the glue guy this team needs. Thabo Sefolosha is the stopper. And Russell Westbrook is the point guard to make it all go. I don’t know if many saw that happening this time last year.
Who's to say we wont have 50 wins this season. If you break the past two seasons down into trimesters (just over 25 games) we have staedily improved over every time period. and the last 25 games we have gone 16-9 (.640 win percentage). Apply that percentage to the next 32 games (thats the rest of this season) and we come out at about 20 wins (20.48 really), which puts us with 49 wins. Couple that with the previously mentioned improvement and...... 50+ wins...
Also, last game Russ had a steal and clear breakaway in which he turned around and gave the ball to an ICE COLD Kevin Durant, which truly got him going. Without that, KD ends the 25 point streak with a very underwhelming game.
A player of this type isn't enough to muck up a good team. Often not enough to "make" a good team. Not sure how much of the current success is Westbrook but it is quite successful compared to expectations so far with him this season. But going from 23 wins to 45 is one thing and from 45 to 50-55 wins and advancing in the playoffs another. Not sure which is harder but they are different.
The general pattern I was referring to was just within the bottom 6.
But of course Rondo is a good example of a player of this type making it work on a good team. But the difference between Rondo and Devin Harris or Stuckey is mainly being on a good team.
@Crow
You covered your bases with, "a general pattern", but Rajon Rondo is not a good shooter away from the rim and I would consider him easily top five pg's.
I have always considered Westbrook as similar to Rondo. Westbrook is bigger and more athletic while Rondo is a better and more creative passer, but they have overall very similar skill sets.
I hope Westbrook can end up playing like Rondo
I'm with Boots, I think this team will improve significantly, even standing pat. Things like eFG% will increase, and players will get better. If the team stays at this level it will be mediocre, but it wont. Are we giving up on Harden as a three point shooter? or a shooter in general? I dont think anyone will disagree that a post presence would be great, but it is very reasonable to assume that our offensive efficiency will improve greatly over the coming seasons regardless of wheelings and dealings.
And see if that is enough to get you all the way to where you want to be. If it isn't in 2, 3 or 4 years then you re-assess.
You want realistic expectations about Russell ... and enough good shooting from elsewhere.
Right.
Russ has improved his shooting inside of 16 feet this year by almost 6%. His shooting outside of that range has fallen marginally. It comes down to shot selection. If Russ limited his shooting to 16 feet and in his FG% would probably be a few percentage points higher. If he eliminated that leaning jumper then maybe a fraction of a percentage point..
He probably won't ever by an efficient scorer, but I don't think it's beyond him to be at or slightly above league average for his position. Shot selection, shot selection, shot selection..
Russell is probably in pretty close to the ideal place for him; whether Russell is ideal for the place is harder to say.
It is hard to find a good shooting PG on a bad team offense.
Udrih and A Brooks are pretty good shooters on average to a bit below average team offenses.
Congrats to Russell on his award.
His value to the team comes from passing, defense, individual offense and whatever that does to set the table for others. His individual offense might be the least valuable / important but it is part of the package.
Look at the current bottom 6 on team Offensive Efficiency:
25th Detroit young PG without an outside shot who drives a lot and shoots a lot including too often outside.
26th Clippers older PG without much of an outside shot who drives a lot and shoots a lot including too often outside.
27th Indiana older PG without an outside shot who drives a a fair amount and you have to worry he might shoot too much.
28th Minnesota young PG with a decent 3pt shot who drives a fair amount and does ok / nothing special but maybe shoots a bit too much including too often from mid-range.
29th Chicago young PG without an outside shot who drives a lot and does ok / nothing special. Shoots a lot including too often outside.
30th New Jersey a fairly youngish PG without an outside shot who drives a lot and does ok / nothing special. Shoots too often.
There is a general pattern of PG with little outside shot, not really making up for that by going inside. This doesn't jumpstart a team's offense.
@Crow
That much is certain..
Without Durant this team is surely no better than 25th on Offense and might be in a race for dead last with the Devin Harris style of leading the Nets.
Harden 41% FG at the rim so far.
An inside shot from Westbrook isn't like an inside shot from most players. He hits 51% FG at the rim. Noticeably better than last season but really just average shot in the league. It is isn't going to kill you quick most nights. Getting fouled is usually a bigger payoff. Most good inside shooters are 60%+ FG and that has massively larger impacts over a string of shots compared to an average shot.
Thabo is the second lowest starting SG on Individual Offensive Rating. You can say that isn't his job but it is still a factor and having that next to Westbrook at 11-12th lowest at PG is an overall weak guard combo.
You hear things about Westbrook hitting some mid-range jumpers but that is a filler shot to be avoid as much as possible. He makes about 35% of them.
For all that is going well with Westbrook he still ranks 3rd lowest on eFG% among starting PGs and just outside 10th lowest on Individual Offensive Rating. His assist are impressive but it would be more impressive if the team's total assist were top 10 instead of being 23rd. He has the ball a really large % of the time that is not in Durant's hands (and therefore lots of chances to make assists). He is more likely a top 5 or 10 PG (at least on offense) to me when they get to top 10 on team offense or near it. It is about team performance first, individual stats second.
Rhett :I was listenin’ to Ice Cube’s “Today was a Good Day” and the part where he’s singin’
“Called up the homies and I’m askin y’allWhich park, are y’all playin basketball?Get me on the court and I’m troubleLast week f**ked around and got a triple double”
made me think of RW ’cause he’s well on his way to be a nightly triple-double threat.
and I’d forgotten about this line:“It’s ironic, I had the brew she had the chronicThe Lakers beat the Supersonics”
Classic man, you just took me back a while. ;-)
@justin
yeah, I agree, but having Marbury as his ability ceiling is an amazing possibility, Stephon has always been incredibly talented.
and Russ doesn't seem like the kind of guy to leave his teammates to their own fates, like Steph in every single place he played in.
@Bruno
I think the Marbury / Kenny Anderson type is his peak.. with some better physical tools and the proclivity for rebounding.
awesome post Royce, and nice timing to it too :p
I'd love to see Russ evolve into a non-selfish Stephon Marbury, with the same ability to take it to the rim and shoot it mid-range but without the 3-point barrage and the me-first attitude.
actually, Russ is probably a better defender than Marbury just because he tries harder.
@Boots
OKC is 22nd in eFG% and 20th in opponent ORB%.. translation, we can't shoot and can't rebound defensively. The shooting is much more of a problem..
Our shooting efficiency is negatively affected by everyone in our starting lineup being below average except Kevin Durant..
Parker and Duncan do their inside work to a level roughly equal to Westbrook and Durant. The Spurs just have a lot of really light at taking it to the rim guys- Finley, Mason, Bonner, Bogans, McDyess.
I was listenin' to Ice Cube's "Today was a Good Day" and the part where he's singin'
"Called up the homies and I'm askin y'all
Which park, are y'all playin basketball?
Get me on the court and I'm trouble
Last week f**ked around and got a triple double"
made me think of RW 'cause he's well on his way to be a nightly triple-double threat.
and I'd forgotten about this line:
"It's ironic, I had the brew she had the chronic
The Lakers beat the Supersonics"
Chris Kamen will replace Roy in the All-Star game...
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/news/story?id=4897767
Yeah Jax the Lakers should be top 5 inside and it is because of Kobe that they aren't.
David Lee is 5th highest on inside shots this season, presumably aided some by teammate misses. He was #2 in the league last season.
When James Harden heard that Russell was named POTW,
he was suprised!
.
.
but happy!
After Westbrook and Durant (who make up about 40% of the inside game of the team), the next most frequent at getting shots at the rim per minute are Ibaka and Harden then Green and Collison. Thabo and Maynor are the lowest for guys getting minutes.
The right bigs to defend well and rebound might be as important or more important than scoring or inside scoring.
Westbrook is about 25th in the league on shots at the rim. This doesn't include the FTAs that come with inside takes at various rates. Tyreke Evans leads the league with shots at the rim at 8.3 per game. LBJ is 9th at 6.6. Durant is just outside 30th.
Thunder players earn West. Conf. POTW two weeks in a row:
Durant last week
Westbrook this week
The good news for this team just keeps coming
someone slap me... I must be dreamin!
:)
Crow :
The highest average shots at the rim per game by a team is just under 32. OKC is at 27 and just barely above average.
The leader is Memphis. Utah and Denver are 3rd and 4th. But the Lakers are just one spot ahead of the Thunder at 13th. Atlanta 18th, Cleveland 19th, San Antonio 21, Boston 22, Dallas 23, Orland 26, Portland 29.
Not sure how I’d interpret this yet.
Maybe big man scoring is more important than the location it comes from.
I would interpret part of that to mean that Kobe won't pass Gasol the ball in the paint like he should. You can tell which team depend on perimeter scoring. I would have thought the spurs would be higher on that list though, since Parker and Manu can get to the rim so well.
justin :Well deserved..
x2...
interesting stat there noted by Stein:
during Durant's 25+ ppg streak, the Thunder have won twice as many games as they have lost.
that's no .500 record, sonny
impressive!
@ Justin
if Westcrook turns into mark Jackson I would be thrilled :)
also what will help westbrook is another scoring option preferably post scoring, paul having chandler added 1-2 more APG for him, if westbrook had an option like that he could get to 9APG
The highest average shots at the rim per game by a team is just under 32. OKC is at 27 and just barely above average.
The leader is Memphis. Utah and Denver are 3rd and 4th. But the Lakers are just one spot ahead of the Thunder at 13th. Atlanta 18th, Cleveland 19th, San Antonio 21, Boston 22, Dallas 23, Orland 26, Portland 29.
Not sure how I'd interpret this yet.
Maybe big man scoring is more important than the location it comes from.
@justin
No I dont want that. Obviously.
Please give me a link that supports us being horrible in offensive efficiency or defensive rebounding, or that these are the two things we need to win a championship.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable2.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top
This site shows us as a top 5 rebounding team. And that we average 2 more rebounds per game than our opponent.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable1.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top
This shows us ranked #16 in FG%, but #4 in opponents FG%. Clearly we can improve this number, but doesn’t it make sense that as our young players progress (and get older), their FG% will increase? This has been happening three years running for KD, and RW is improving as well.
The thing is RW never was a full time PG until the thunder the others grew up PGs.
Also looking at when these PGs peaked kidd was in his 6th year when he averaged his highest assist total, williams 4th season, rondo 4th season, paul 3rd season.
so really next year or the year after should be westbrooks peak year, also the average age for peak is 24 years old out of those PGs, so westbrook still has a few years.
Stein's new Power Rankings: OKC up to #9
Marc Stein's NBA Power Rankings
see, I told you last week Marc was too stingy... he seems to agree
money quote:
"My bad: OKC was way too low last Monday and has been hurt more than any team by our recent struggles to sort out the weekly jumble in the middle. At 16-8 during Durant's streak of 25-point games, it had to jump."
@justin
No I dont want that. Obviously, as I said already.
Please give me a link that supports us being horrible in offensive efficiency or defensive rebounding.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable2.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top
This site shows us as a top 5 rebounding team. And that we average 2 more rebounds per game than our opponent.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable1.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top
This shows us ranked #16 in FG%, but #4 in opponents FG%. Clearly we can improve this number, but doesn't it make sense that as our young players progress (and get older), their FG% will increase? This has been happening three years running for KD, and RW is improving as well.
I just go with NBA 2k10 rankings. We need at least an 80 at center.
oops, make that POW not POY!
Since January 1 Westbrook is at 7 shots at the rim per game and it has stayed that way in the last 10 games. Don't know if the recent 10 shot games are just part of that distribution of if he might be able to move up further.
wow Royce, you timed the post on Russell perfectly!
did you, umm, have some insider info about the POY announcement???
;)
@Boots
As someone else said, do you want to be a perennial playoff flame out or a contender? We're not going to win with our offensive efficiency the way it is or our defensive rebounding the way it is unless we become All World Defense..
@justin
Justify it how you want, but we shoot at a higher FG% than our opponents, and have more defensive rebounds per game than our opponents.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/teams/stats?team=okc
The stats may say the Thunder are bad at those two categories, but we are still getting Ws and are better than our opponents in each category when we are playing them. Maybe we would do better with a dominate big man, but I just don't know if we can afford it or if it's even necessary.
Well deserved..
oh and,
hey Russell....
WAY TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!