Playoff matchupability: How the Thunder lines up in the West

Jeff has great hands and good mobility with the ball, and he's a decent finisher.. yet we seem to use him most often as a long range shooter to spread the floor. He should be moving, attacking the basket.. getting to the line more. He's not a good shooter, keeping him floating around the 3PT line doesn't seem like it's the best use of his skills.

justin :@Sammy
I dunno. Jeff Green just really bugs me sometimes, I think he could be so much better on offense with his skillset.

I keep thinking the same thing. My hope is that there is a plan at some point to implement an offense that takes advantage of his skills. More passing/motion, take advantage of his experience in the Princeton system. Then we'll find out if those skills really translate, or is it a mirage?

@Royce Young
Royce, my only problem with your playoff formula is that you forgot to take into account Harden's headband! How could you forget!

I like the analysis, and would be interesting to see another post with updated numbers as we get maybe 5-10 games out.

Holy Crap! Just seen thabo's contract? are you serious? Presti you genius!

@dream catcher

Wouldn't that stuff show up in +/-? Why does the defense perform so much better with Green off the court if he's good at all those things? As our starting PF isn't it more important that he's able to defend his position?

Just asking questions..

plus, he is still a young player and I don't think Presti is going to give up on him now.

justin :@Anonymous

What’s he doing on the floor that doesn’t show up in the stats?

closeouts, hustle plays, versatility to defend multiple positions, getting hand up in face. Plus he brings a lot off the court as well.

@Anonymous

What's he doing on the floor that doesn't show up in the stats?

@Royce Young
yeah if we miss at this point it would mean something horrible happened.

It is real small sample of course but the starters are positive against Utah and Denver, negative against Dallas.

Krstic is not much of a factor against playoff teams generally and notably against Dallas and Denver. He does better against Utah. The coach will have to get him some plays / shots. Can't have both Thabo and Krstic not being much a threat in the playoffs. Just because the starters managed to eventually stay even by the end of the game in the regular season against all teams that way doesn't mean folks should expect it to be the same. The slow first quarters could really be a major issue. Harder to come back just by applying more effort or younger legs in the 3rd, I'd think.

Westbrook's assists per game regular season were down 15-20% against Utah, Dallas and Denver compared to his average. It probably won't be a problem but he may have to work harder against them to move the ball the right places.

In the playoffs it seems like teams stuff the middle more or better. I don't know if teams will do a better job of containing Westbrook's penetration but surely they will try and dare him to shoot. He shouldn't shoot just because he is open but continue to look for better shots- his own or teammates.

Will teams try to double off Thabo more? Probably. Have to make them pay one way or another.

It is pretty amazing that we're talking SEEDING for the playoffs. We have 19 games left and we're not talking "God I hope they make it. I just got $$ for my birthday and I'm saving IN case we make #8!" No, we're talking about WHEN the playoffs arrive. Going from 23 wins to upper 40s or 50 (50+ anyone?) is truly insane. If we make it into the 2nd round playoffs and god forbid into the Western Conference finals, all of those people that didn't like Westbook (cough-traber-cough) as a P.G. or didn't think he could really be a difference maker need to publicly apologize to Westbrook. There will truly be no short list of people responsible for such an amazing turn around.

This is what March is supposed to be like...planning for April / May NBA games, not doing the lottery percentage calculator seeing how many tries it takes to get the first pick. I think we might get used to this. My only fear is that everything is great right now with the team and they're all very friendly with each other. Money makes people, friends and even relatives, do crazy things to each other. Is J.G. the type of guy to be cool with getting 4 yrs 20MM to 25MM while KD gets 5 ys 80MM? Will Westbrook demand the same thing the next year? Do these players see the value in winning championships over a few million more? I can't understand passing up a few million, but I also can't understand what it would be like to be part of a team with the potential the Thunder has right now either. There are national talking sports heads saying the Thunder is the team for the next decade. That's crazy! In 2020, the core group of guys will be entering their 30s! After reading Bird and Magic's book, I think it is easier to see how the ultra competitive (Durant certainly appears to be that) want that ring, banner and gold trophy. Remember Jordan in tears when the Bulls won 3 in a row? Think he was thinking of how many millions Nike was going to give him on the next contract? No way. I hope the Thunder choose to stick together. There is certainly the possibility for Durant/Westbrook to get to the point where you can't talk about one without thinking of the other. Kind of like Bird / Magic, only on the same team.

It will be a bit harder to shrink from a 9 man rotation compared to the 10 man rotations most others have.

Will be interesting if Maynor (or Ollie) gets 8+ minutes or if they try to run Westbrook 42-44 or more.

Durant will probably go 44+.

I'd rather Green didn't go 40+ but he probably will.

Does Ibaka play every game similar to now or much more limited? A philosophical choice.

In the playoffs the top teams will play their best players more. For some teams the change will be modest, for others (like San Antonio) pretty significant.

Presumably they will play their best lineups more, though not every coach acts they really know them.

@Royce Young

I probably can't afford more than round 1 playoff tix anyway. ;)

Also--@Lindsey--NICE!! Kamikaze the hurt hand of Kobe--I LIKE IT!!!

@girlballer
Don't worry, we're pretty much past the jinx stage now. I'm pretty sure we're locked in.

FINE!! Whatever gets us a first round draw with the Spurs is our best chance to advance to round 2. They are old and slow, and Westbrook OWNS Parker. What seems to usually steal our bacon so to speak is the 3-ball sharp-shooter at the end of a hard fought game. i.e. Lakers (OBVIOUSLY) or Nuggets. Anybody but these two gives us our best shot, but IMO the Spurs are who we want.

Are you happy now Royce!?!? I feel dirty just typing this..... Jinx, jinx, JINX!!!!!

f5alcon :@Sammygreen could come off the bench and be more efficient then now against 2nd team defenders and wouldnt have as much time on defense against starting 4s, could even keep his mins high and it still work and slide ibaka to the 5 for a bit each game. So it wouldnt be as horrible an idea as you might think.

Seriously, I like JG coming off the bench as the backup for both KD... Or, chip in to play some powerforward too. I know, or I think, he might have a bit hard time to play the SF competing most of other teams' SF starter but playing against the 2nd line should be a more than easy job for him... He does cause matchup problem to other teams with playing powerforward, but Thunder also give up alot in between also imo... Ibaka is better suit for that position and for sure will help a lot when he knows the game better... He's just a bit jumpy sometime, especially on defense because he seems to jump on every fake shot...

justin :@f5alcon
Or grow extra limbs to become his namesake..

Anyone watched Futurama? I just remember there is a five arms mutant who was created to play basketball... Lol...

Read Royce's column about possible playoff matchups for the Thunder, and now I'm sitting here reading through the comments, and how we're all talking about OKC's seeding for the playoffs and whether or not they can get through the first round, etc.

And all I can think about is, how incredible is all of the above?

You almost have to get a 1-1 split in the first 2 games, even on the road. If you do that you're ok, no matter how bad the loss or how close the win.

Royce's matchupability Rating, however he did it, was fine by me because it was just an intermediate step to the chance of advancing. I thought this was a fine article with lots of useful detail that could lead to further discussion.

I might generally shave 5-10 percent off most chances of advancing and maybe more off a few but I'll wait and see who they draw before trying to be precise or argumentative.

@Sammy
I see no reason why Green shouldn't get his percentages back to last year's level. After that horrible start, he shot 43% in Feb and 38.5% in March

@justin
He's definitely the most enigmatic player on the team. I still believe the organization will wait until next February to see just how much he develops before actively looking to replace him (not to say they wouldn't make a move this summer if a favorable deal presented itself). There's a lot about his game I still like; I haven't given up hope yet.

I become just a little bit more of a Serge believer every time he hits those shots where I shout 'NOOOO' at the TV. The turnaround baseline jumper he's hit the last two games have looked good. If he can just finish inside like he should be able to, I can't see how his offensive game is appreciably worse than Jeff Green's assuming Green doesn't get his 3pt% back near 38-40% and remains content floating on the perimeter.

justin :@f5alcon

Or grow extra limbs to become his namesake..

now i am thinking about goro from mortal kombat playing basketball, i kinda remember there being a cheat in nba jam for that too.

@Sammy
green could come off the bench and be more efficient then now against 2nd team defenders and wouldnt have as much time on defense against starting 4s, could even keep his mins high and it still work and slide ibaka to the 5 for a bit each game. So it wouldnt be as horrible an idea as you might think.

@f5alcon

Or grow extra limbs to become his namesake..

@KingGondo
stem cell replacement body parts, so he maintains a 25 year old body forever.

@Sammy

Green's handle and quickness at the position makes him valuable in that sense, but is it really worth a lot to this team? He's still scoring inefficiently overall, and he doesn't look to pass the ball much. When Green is hitting the three pointers he's a nightmare on offense, when he's nailing less than one out of three I'm not sure how much he's worth on that end.

I think the benefits for the team on defense and on the boards would outweigh whatever Green gives you on offense. This is assuming Ibaka makes some improvements to his BBIQ and other areas (not a guarantee). Especially if James Harden can make it to the starting SG.

I dunno. Jeff Green just really bugs me sometimes, I think he could be so much better on offense with his skillset.

@Sammy

Ibaka wouldn't need to bust seams in the defense like Green does because Ibaka can hang on the interior whereas Green is forced to "spread the floor" because he cannot maintain position down low.

@justin
green is also 3rd worst at 10-15 ft on the team. Really <10 feet and at the rim are his only worthwhile shots. I think ibaka will pass green the year after next, still needs some polish on his offense. next year ibaka will take collisons spot as 1st big off the bench. Ibaka is a true 4 unlike green.

@justin
Serge would need to grow substantially as an offensive player to start him over Green. Green has an ability to create plays for himself and bust seams in the defense that Serge has never shown.

@f5alcon
I figure by the time Durant hits 30, bionics and PEDs will be advanced enough to allow him to play until he's 70.

We'll be able to pave the streets with championship trophies! The team will give away KD's MVP trophies as hand-outs to the first thousand fans at each game!

It will truly be glorious.

Really, if Serge smartens up on both ends and begins to finish inside more consistently how do you start Jeff Green at PF over him? I'm not a huge Ibaka homer, but I think that's a legitimate question.

I can't get over how poor Jeff Green's mid range shot is. Is there any explanation for this? He's shooting 31% from 16-23 feet and that's been consistent through his first three seasons. Even Serge Ibaka is over 40% from that distance.

@KingGondo
well i was already expecting that to happen, just not starting this year. I mean we are so young, if we add a post threat we will be contenders until durant is in his mid 30s. So 15 straight championships and are only outnumbered by lakers and celtics.

Lindsey :
@j-mo You’re crazy. And I like it.
I’m calling OKC in the NBA Finals, because why the hell not? We were all too tentative to call playoffs this year and see where it got us? If your scenario plays out and we send Kevin Ollie like a kamikaze pilot to crush Kobe’s bad hand in the conference finals, we could get there! WE COULD GET THERE!!

Since nobody thought we'd make the playoffs this year, I'm gonna go ahead and call it:

DYNASTY!

I don't know about everyone else, but I will thoroughly enjoy being the Bulls of the 2010s.

@j-mo
yeah nba seeding is not like the nfl where top seed always plays lowest seed remaining.

the 3 division leaders are always a top 4 seed even if one has a worse record then the 5th place team. 1-8 always plays 4-5 and 2-7 always plays 3-6.

It is also possible that a lower seeded team has home court advantage because that is based on records.

kev :
I dont see how people say in one breath that “KD is a great guy” then “well if Green leaves then KD will be upset” . . .
KD is not four – I am sure will be upset for awhile, but I figure he knows business is business . . .

yeah thats true, and if we offer Kd max it isnt like he wont sign it just to get green signed.

@j-mo

memphis is not going to make it, if they do it wont be portland that misses, portland has the least games and a fairly easy schedule. the spurs are more likely to miss, lots of road games, back to backs and parker is out.

hollinger has memphis' chances of playoffs at 3% sportsclubstatistics has them at 4%. It probably isnt happening. The grizzles to make it to 46 wins and have a reasonable chance at playoffs have to go 12-5 the rest of the way and still have denver twice, dallas twice, orlando, san antonio, thunder, houston twice, and new orleans on their schedule still.

@j-mo You're crazy. And I like it.

I'm calling OKC in the NBA Finals, because why the hell not? We were all too tentative to call playoffs this year and see where it got us? If your scenario plays out and we send Kevin Ollie like a kamikaze pilot to crush Kobe's bad hand in the conference finals, we could get there! WE COULD GET THERE!!

@jeff allen
Would Durant get upset? Maybe, but I think he'd also be smart enough to know bidness is bidness. Would that upset chemistry enough to derail this team? Winning cures all ills; you bring in a capable PF and I think KD, RW and the rest will be peaches.

I dont see how people say in one breath that "KD is a great guy" then "well if Green leaves then KD will be upset" . . .

KD is not four - I am sure will be upset for awhile, but I figure he knows business is business . . .

@Sammy
I just realized (after looking at NCAA brackets) that 1 and 2 are top and bottom of the same side of the bracket. Keeps the top seeds from playing each other so quickly.

@j-mo
Or just have OKC get the 6th seed and have Denver or Dallas fall to the 4th.

@Sammy

oh def durant is getting his contract... but i was just saying it because of how good the chemistry on and off the court is. they entered the same year and have been through the first years of dreadfulness.