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The No. 3 pick of the 2010 draft did not come with a lot of flash or hype, bow-tie aside. He’s been steadily under the radar and perhaps even under appreciated by the league and his own fan base due to the stratospheric rise of Kevin Durant and even the marked improvement of Russell Westbrook.
But if we’ve learned anything in the past week and a half, it is this: The Thunder need James Harden.
Since Harden’s hurt hamstring has caused him to be out of the lineup, the Thunder has gone 3-3. At first glance, this doesn’t look all that bad. After all, .500 ball is not horrible in the NBA and you could argue that it’s such a small sample size that maybe there’s no real merit in their record.
And that would be a sound argument…until you look at their level of competition and their record before Harden went down.
The Thunder has faced the worst team in the league in the Nets, a team struggling to stay above .500 and keep the 8th seed in the East in Toronto, a team struggling to stay above .500 and keep the 7th seed in the East in Charlotte, a lottery bound Indiana team, and then the playoff bound Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs. Compared to the teams the Thunder played before this six game stretch and will have to player afterwards, this should have been the time that they piled up some wins even if half of them were on the road because they faced inferior competition. And they’ve only gone 3-3.
Now onto record, in the six games since Harden was lost to injury, the Thunder has lost three of them. Know how many games it took for the Thunder to lose three games before Harden got hurt?
Try 15. The team went 12-3, needing 15 games to rack up that third loss before Harden went down. And after that loss, they won three straight before losing Harden, going 18-3 since the last time they lost 3 of 4 all the way back to January 27th against the Chicago Bulls. Or in other words, this team was on a roll.
Because you can absolutely say that looking at only the last handful of games before a player went down is selective and ignores the season as a whole. But that in no way negates the reality that this team was trending in the right direction, competing for the fifth seed before they lost their spark plug off of the bench. And isn’t the right now, the homestretch to the end of the season the time you want to look at how a team is playing as they head into the playoffs?
Now obviously, the Thunder’s recent struggles are not all because James Harden has been injured. You’ll never hear me say that. But it’s crystal clear when you look at the last six games that the Thunder have really, REALLY missed him and his production. And it’s cost them.
So with that in mind, let’s have a look at the production from the shooting guard position and the bench that the Thunder have had since Harden has gone down, shall we?
New Jersey Nets:
Thabo Sefolosha – 4 points in 33 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 0 points in 10 minutes
Bench Production – 20 points
Utah Jazz:
Thabo Sefolosha – 13 points in 26 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 0 points in 15 minutes
Bench Production – 14 points
Charlotte Bobcats:
Thabo Sefolosha – 2 points in 26 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 0 points in 12 minutes
Bench – 26 points
Toronto Raptors (blowout win):
Thabo Sefolosha – 6 points in 28 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 12 points in 20 minutes
Bench – 34 points
Indiana Pacers (blowout loss):
Thabo Sefolosha – 8 points in 23 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 4 points in 28 minutes
Bench – 44 points
San Antonio Spurs:
Thabo Sefolosha – 0 points in 21 minutes
Kyle Weaver – 0 points in 15 minutes
Bench – 15 points (Serge Ibaka being 10 of those)
Are you seeing a trend here?
Just for reference, on the season James Harden averages 9.9 points in 23.0 minutes.
Through these last six games the Thunder’s shooting guards are averaging 4.05 points a game in 20.75 minutes. Yes, Harden single-handedly doubles the Thunder’s other shooting guards’ production in scoring average.
Thabo Sefolosha is averaging 5.5 points in 26 minutes, Kyle Weaver is averaging 2.6 points in 16 minutes and the Thunder Bench is only averaging 25.5 points which isn’t all that bad, but if you take away the blowout win and loss where the starters saw a significant drop in playing time and the bench players got a lot more, skewing the point totals because of more bench playing time, you come to the Thunder Bench only averaging 18.75 points.
The reason you have to factor in the blowouts is because the game was already over and in a regular game/crunch time scenario the bench would see far fewer minutes and thus their production (or lack thereof) would be that much more critical to the Thunder’s chance for a victory.
Since Harden’s injury, Kyle Weaver has gone scoreless 4 times and Thabo has gone scoreless once. On the season, James Harden has never been held scoreless in a game.
Since Harden’s injury, the shooting guard tandem of Weaver and Sefolosha has scored in double digits only twice. In the six games before his injury, Harden scored in double figures 4 times, actually averaging double-digit scoring at 11.83 points.
4.05 points a game from your starting and backup shooting guard? Sorry, but that’s just not going to get it done. Especially not in a playoff hunt. Yes, at this point, it is officially a hunt again.
And I understand that Thabo and Kyle are defensive players. I get that their value and first priority is to defend. But that just highlights the fact that on one of the league’s least efficient offenses, the shooting guard position and the bench has got to contribute offensively in some way (scoring, playmaking) for that team to have a shot at a win and it’s not happening.
Not only that, but also don’t forget about the rotation changes that have gone into effect with Harden hurt. As a few people have noticed and commented, since Weaver has been so anemic on offense Kevin Durant is spending more time at the 2 instead of his natural 3 with the second unit, which means he is trying to guard quicker shooting guards instead of small forwards. And as his first year and handful of games showed, Durant really struggles trying to keep shooting guards in check (probably because, you know, he’s not a shooting guard).
So not only is Harden’s absence being felt on the offensive end but also on the defensive end, where Harden made truly remarkable strides from game to game throughout the year.
What does this all mean?
Well, for starters, we’re all getting a crystal clear picture of just how much James Harden contributed to this team so anyone who thought losing him to injury would not be a big deal need to rethink that position because he might be the third most important player to the Thunder when it’s all said and done. Secondly, it confirms what we pretty much already knew: James Harden is vital to the Thunder bench when it comes to scoring. And without him, that group struggles to put up enough points to put the Thunder in a position to win a ball game.
Now there are other contributing factors to this recent slide, but the fact of the matter is that the Thunder is going to have to find point production from their two shooting guards or from another position/player to make up for the loss of James Harden.
And so far, it’s been hit or miss.
Bell's a 40%+ 3PT shooter.. his injury this year was to his wrist. If he can still move his feet he might have a job in the league.
Harden is back tonight.
Raja Bell a couple of years ago was an excellent player. But he'll turn 35 next season and he's played 6 games this season. He might be done.
Raja Bell would be a great option..
OKC needs shooting, we already have three guards that can't really shoot in our rotation. Weaver, if he's not hitting threes and scoring, doesn't have much of a place on this roster..
If we had a shooter in Weaver's place right now maybe we don't feel Harden's loss as bad.
Raja Bell was released by Golden State. He can defend and shoot the 3. Sounds like someone this organization could use.
maybe package weaver and a pick and move up a bit in the draft. something crazy like a 3 way trade with us, miami and philly, we get dalambert and sixers pick(top 10). Sixers get below the cap, miamis better of 1st rd picks(top 15) our 2nd rd pick, and white. miami gets weaver and both our 1st rd picks. They can then extend wade, sign Bosh, and have 3 1st rd picks to build around wade/bosh/beasley
Weaver is only going to cost $900,000 next season, he's young, he can play defense and he's shown a little bit of offensive versatility. There's very, very little chance he's going to get cut. Even if he and White are kept on the roster there's still room for 3 new free agents or draft picks.
We need The Beard!!
In case you hadn't seen the reference, this column mentioned / discussed some at http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/
So it is fill 5 spots from 5 current guys, the draft and free agency. It seems fairly tight but 15 spots is a lot really. They might prefer to just fill 14 but they've got to make minimum team salary so 15 would seem to help that.
Not counting Weaver, White, Ollie, Thomas and Shakur, there are only 10 returnees, so I guess you have one more wildcard selection, which could be a shooter, perhaps veteran.
If they carry 15 players from the start next season they can go 3 PGs, 5-6 wings, 6-7 bigs.
Weaver or Shakur or Ollie or a new guy can be the 3rd PG.
Weaver or a new guy can be the 6th wing, if they carry it.
White or a new guy can the 6th big.
A new guy can the 7th big, if they carry that.
Keep Weaver and White, you need a perimeter and a big and they'd probably be the first round picks.
Man, I'm really happy for Shaun Livingston. It's really nice to see a guy come back from an injury like his and play well.
Thabo's going to be 26 and he's finishing his fifth year in the league.. his shooting #'s are all at or below his career averages. It's possible he'll improve but it's much more likely he is what he is.
Weaver has more to work with and actually shot the three pointer alright last season. His injuries probably have ended his shot with the organization going forward unless he really turns it up with Harden out. Presti commited to Thabo, Weaver doesn't really have a spot on the team when we desperately need another end of bench shooter..
@justin
Weaver CAN be good offensively, as can Thabo, but it's is just happening too infrequently right now. I'd say Kyle's getting "screwed" by the fact the Thunder are way better than we all thought so the amount of time he's getting to develop is cut short. The Thunder are getting ready for the playoffs and should be in the conversation for the forseeable future, so maybe he'd be better off playing more often for a worse team.
@Joe
Agree with everything except the fact that Harden isn't efficient yet. The best thing about Harden, and the reason I've been excited about his growth, is that despite his low overall FG%, his TS% is still fairly good due to his 3pt shooting and DrawF rate. He's got a higher TS% than Tyreke Evans, for example, who's considered a much better scorer than Harden.
I expect one of Thabo / Weaver to be off the team by next season for a scoring guard, unless Weaver can demonstrate some kind of shooting ability. Most likely Weaver, of course, since Thabo is locked up.
Harden's game and development are crucial..
I like the write up J.G.; I think we've mostly all felt the void that is left from Harden's absence. And for what it's worth I think a scoring shooting guard is likely to appear in our summer league/draft/free agency plans. Thabo and Weaver aren't scorers and neither can create their own offense. JHard can, Durant can and Westbrook can. Green to a much lesser degree. Proof of that is that Harden gets to the line and scores even though he hasn't really gotten efficient yet (I blame the fact that he's a rookie).
We have 1 or 2 second rounders and two firsters. Likely something will happen with some of that in regards a trade or something, but I think at the end of the day Presti gets an 11 or 12th guy that is a bomber, much like he tried to do with Robert Vaden. Maybe they give Vaden another shot next year in training camp.
I'd find an extra point anywhere I could.
The entire Thunder organization efforts have made them 223 points better than their opponents after about 160-170 days since training camp started.
I guess I should add that "average" is based on a lot of smart work and isn't easy but still find anything that adds value, even a little, that is meaningful and informed fans can do that.
Yeah Tim White's time has mostly been junk time but that is a coaching decision. He can only use what he gets. Whether it will change next season I don't know but I am not that confident it will.
A player could post anonymously and that probably happens some, somewhere. More often it might come from friends or family.
As for knowing stuff, the very best 3 teams in the league are 6+ points better than the average. Over the course of the season that is about 500 points. Differences in player talent, effort, chemistry, coaching, management and luck go into that 500 point edge. So a team of players and all the staff find 500 points of edge over 82 games or about 200 day season. If anybody in that group does something to make or save a single basket (once and only once) that is pretty close to meeting the quota for a day for the entire organization... to be one of the 3 best teams in the league. If 40-45 insiders find half that edge then they are likely to get out of the first round. Half that again and you still are likely to make the playoffs.
It doesn't take that much to go from average to good or great but you better find it somewhere and apparently most insiders find it hard to do because they don't get it done.
@f5alcon
Well, I was joking. But do you think that IF a player actively reads this blog he would post publicly?
I sometimes wonder if players do read the blogs and don't say anything because despite how much we think we know about basketball in truth we really know nothing, nothing!
@johnnycougar
The majority of the oklahoma based commenters that post a lot have met, so unless the players sent an impersonator to throw people off.
Guys, how do we know that none of us IS a player? HMMMM?
Crow :
Per minute White outscores Krstic by 50% and beats him on offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, assist, turnover, block,steal and FTA rates and FG% and FT%. But nah can’t allow him to play. I’d try him at center some against reserves. 5-10 minutes a game somewhere, sometime, every game for a week or two and see what he does.
I would like to see White more, too. However, keep in mind his points have mostly been coming in junk time. I'm guessing his minutes will pick up next year and he'll move into the regular rotation.
Actually I shouldn't comment much on Thunder communication efforts since I don't pay much attention to anything they do unless it gets mentioned here.
maybe we should sign
http://dimemag.com/2010/03/stephon-marbury-sinks-threes-in-china-from-coney-island/
Not much guiding about "this is what we've accomplished" or "isn't he great?" or "if you think this is a problem, let me explain why it really isn't" stuff. I guess you can call that focus on the work. It is not often that teams say much that is that interesting or enlightening.
Some teams do more to feed active fan interest & knowledge.
Some teams are more prone to resist or dismiss the "knowledge" part. The Thunder seems to pretty much publicly leave it alone.
If this wasn't a strong blog I would have had a much easier time leaving.
The inside 30 might be more like 40-45 now that I think about it a bit more.
@Crow
yeah though our fanbase is much more involved/knowledgeable then 2/3 the league.
How many of the inside 30 feel they can speak up and notice stuff and how much weight that gets... that is important in the long-run.
Reading and using what you want / can / need to is a different thing than commenting publicly. I wouldn't do the latter as a player at all and coaches and GMs do so modestly or less and I can understand that.
Between players & basketball operations you've got 30 or more people to notice stuff. They probably see / feel / find out most stuff. But if you wanted to be sure you weren't missing anything, I'd have somebody reading / data-mining your own team, other teams, the league. Wisdom (at least occasional or partial wisdom) of the masses.
@justin
i bet some read them, KD reads truehoop i remember seeing.
really we are the reason they have jobs, so we should be important to them
If I were an NBA player I would be best served to stay away from sports blogs lest I single handedly alienate the entire fan base with my responses.
I'm not so good with conjecture.
It is easier for players, coaches and front-office staff not to, but there are things that could be useful to them, however they hear it or want to use it.
I'd read blogs if I were an NBA player.. comment on them too. Wish more of them did that.
I hate the Red Sox but it used to be neat when Curt Schilling would interact with some of the popular fan sites..
I don't think players read blogs much or at all, but it can't hurt for Thabo to have your strong support Bob.
I might note his stats, but good luck to him.
@J.G.
That sounds about right to me. Basketball is a crazy sport - if Weaver could just be a consistent THREAT from 3, maybe 2-5 every game, and take it to the rim a few times a game, it would make a far bigger difference than just the six to ten points.
you guys wont be questioning thabo after the houston game. :)
he will be 6-6 from downtown!
@johnnycougar
I appreciate the clarification. And obviously (I think it's in the article, but maybe not) I don't think Harden's absence is the sole reason for the 3-3 record, but I absolutely think that having zero to sub-par scoring production or playmaking from the SG position is one of the biggest reasons for the record and thus eliminating that reason via Harden could be the difference between a 3-3 record and a 5-1 or 4-2 record.
My main point is that Harden's production was essential to the team and they've been unable to duplicate it thus far...but if Weaver or Thabo could shoot it might actually help the team stop losing now that you mention it though. :)
Way off topic, but I just had to point out that in the picture it looks like Will Smith is peeking through James' right elbow.
Maybe they wait til they clinch as you suggest f5alcon but that time is also a good time to roll your standard stuff to keep it humming. Different strategies. Maybe do a little now, a little later.
Situational use might be the way to go next season but I'd still think you'd want to know a little more about White on an NBA court, maybe in minutes that matter, before the playoffs and before the draft and the off-season. It is not a high priority yet they could get it done without too much trouble. But whatever.
@Crow
yeah i agree with that, especially with krstic, he hasnt fully healed his fingers as he still plays with them taped, so he could use some time off once we clinch.
@johnnycougar
i agree in that harden isnt the only reason we are better, durant playing at mvp level and westbrook learning to play PG are bigger factors.
Do the White trial time right and you can use the "keeping guys fresh for the playoffs" excuse.
@Crow
brooks wont play 10 guys. I personally think the team is close enough that they wont have chemistry issues if we situationally used more players. I think yesterday playing etan for a few mins in the 2nd to send a message when it was getting a bit physical would have been useful.