This was sent along by reader Jay and I found it interesting:
Just thought I’d pass this along, for what its worth. I was thinking about how close the West was this season and when I noticed that the Thunder were only 7 games behind the #1 seed Lakers, I thought I’d go back and check what the typical separation has been between #1 and #8 seeds. Here’s what I was able to find:
Since 1983 (when the league went to the current 8 team format for each conference) there have only been 2 times when an 8 seed has finished within 10 games of the 1 seed in its conference. Once was in 2003 when the Magic finished 8 games behind the Pistons. Strange thing about that season was that Detroit was the 1 seed with 50 wins, so the Magic was close by default with their 42-40 record. The other time was in 2008 when the 50-win Nuggets finished 7 games behind the 57-win Lakers. So, in the history of the league (at least under the current playoff format) there has never been a closer first round match up based on regular season record. If that weren’t compelling enough, here is a list of all the other margins between 1 and 8 seeds since 1983 (minus the strike-shortened season in 1999):
37, 31, 30, 29, 29, 28, 28, 27, 27, 27, 27, 26, 25, 25, 25, 25, 24, 23, 23, 22, 22, 22, 22, 21, 21, 21, 21, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 18, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 16, 16, 15, 15, 15, 14, 14, 13, 11, 10
So that’s an average margin of 21 games between #1 and #8 seeds. So as compelling as the history of #1 seeds beating #8 seeds is (only two series wins ever), this particular matchup is a lot harder to get a feel for.
The depressing part of the story is that the 2008 Nuggets were swept by the Lakers. I do believe the circumstances are different this season however. If you recall, that was the season in which the Lakers acquired Gasol in the middle of the year and they were playing there best ball to end the season. This Laker team is easily playing their worst ball of the season right now. In fact, the Thunder were the team that started this rough patch for the Lakers (after winning 7 in a row, the Lakers are 4-7 since the Thunder game). Kobe and Bynum still have major health concerns too, so I think this is a much different scenario then the one from a couple of years ago. (btw…the 2003 Magic took the Pistons to a Game 7)
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think anyone can reasonably predict that the Thunder will win the series. However, I do think that 1 vs. 8 doesn’t quite sum up the matchup.
@Joe
The 1999 NY over Miami series was also best of 5. I think they swithches the 1st round to best of 7 around 2002.
@justin
I dunno. The main factor in play is that it's Memphis, and Heisley is Heisley. Getting rid of Gasol is not a smart play.
If Memphis loses Gay, they have a real problem with depth. They'll be running Conley, Brewer, Mayo, Randolph and Gasol next season for a starting lineup next season, I assume. Who's their second group? Hudson, Young, Carroll, Arthur, Thabeet? I guess?
We may not be able to give them a superstar replacement, but we can fix their depth issues if they want to bank on Mayo becoming something worthwhile.
I wouldn't make the deal if I were Memphis, but if something like this happens -- with us or someone else -- I won't be surprised.
f5alcon :http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/04/16/fanhouse-preview-lakers-vs-thunder/
What kind of clown wrote that? The kind who likes to think "I am a great writer because I have mastered the ability to use a thesaurus!" What a tool.
@Dustin
In 94 when we lost to Denver, it was a best of five game series, as all first round playoff series used to be. Now they are all seven games. But your point does stand, it was an 8 seed beating a 1 seed.
Mark! :I’m not 100% convinced that we couldn’t get Marc Gasol in a trade.
For who?
I'm not 100% convinced that we couldn't get Marc Gasol in a trade.
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/04/16/fanhouse-preview-lakers-vs-thunder/
@Dustin
the 1999 year was great as a knicks fan, i still remember the alan houston game winner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syZWs5eeJQ4
So I've heard more than a few people say that there's only been two 8 over 1 upsets. But I count three.
1994 - Denver over Seattle
1999 - New York over Miami
2007 - Golden State over Dallas
I heard Brian Davis say this and Mike Tirico. Is everyone not recognizing the NY over Miami win because it was the lockout year?
@Joe
only 2nd time ever an 8th seed has had 50 wins.
Yeah all this is true, and another interesting fact is how rare it is for an 8th seed to have as many wins as we do. I averaged them out for the last ten years and the average was 44 wins. 50 wins for an eighth seed is really a lot.
Another interesting stat of note: Since January 1st, the Lakers are 32-19...the Thunder are 32-18.
another thing is momentum going into the playoffs.
last year lakers had a 16-4 record in there last 20 games. 4-1 in their last 5.
This year they are 11-9. 2-3 in their last 5.
in comparison to other #1 seeds
cavs this year 16-4(1-4)
cavs last year 18-2 (4-1)
celtics 2 years ago 16-4 (4-1)
lakers 2 years ago 14-6 (4-1)
in fact the last time a #1 seed came in anywhere near as cold was the pistons in 2002-2003
@MastrMatt
That's the perceived notion in the media as well.. most have the Lakers winning in six or seven games -- strange for a defending champ going up against a bunch of playoff newbies.
The point differential and the original post about games back just confirms what everyone is already talking about: this is going to be a dog fight for the Lakers if they play through this series the way they played through the regular season.
@justin
A full strength, focused Laker team would probably win 8 of 10 and sweep 4 pretty close games. The current injured, distracted version probably wins 5/10 and will probably win the series in 6 or 7. Just my two sense. I'm hoping we pull can pull out a few close ones, but our track record isn't super good at the wire. It should be an exciting series no matter what.
FYI... David Stern places revised '10-'11 cap figure at $56.1 million, a boon to teams pursuing free agents. #NBA
I think this is a good thing for us. It drives the maximum contract up to $16.83 million or so, but we weren't giving out max dollars anyway. Gives Sam Presti a lot more latitude to fit in a mid range free agent (COUGHDAVIDLEECOUGH).
@RH
Ah, appreciate that. They switched them up a while ago and I never fixed it.
Royce, for what it's worth, the Thunder Rumblings link on the right actually goes to Baldwin's blog instead of Mayberry's.
A close west and I believe we have a chance! I like our matchup against LA. The Thunder can play with the best of them!
A difference of +1.2 isn't that significant. Houston beat Portland last year without home court advantage with a differnet of +1.3. Cleveland's regular season differential over Orlando last season was +2.2.
Granted, matchups play a big part of determining the winner in playoff series, but if the Lakers play to their average performance across the season against us we have a very strong chance at beating them. If Andrew Bynum comes back and is effective and their roster busts out of their malaise, then that +1.2 probably doesn't represent the difference between the teams any longer.
An even better way to measure this is point differential. Here's the difference in point differential between number one and number eight seeds in the West the past nine seasons:
+6.2
+4.2
+4.4
+4.8
+5.3
+6.9
+3.6
+4.9
+1.2
Obviously, you can see which season stands out.