On the day he won NBA coach of the year…

Berri also chose in his blog post to ignore the improved performance from multi-year APM and then downplayed its application in a specific way after I raised it, without acknowledging the basic improvement in performance compared to the 1 year APM he focused his attention on.

By 'quoted there", I mean anything in the brief Hollinger post and Berri's article.

None of those quoted there addressed the most recent innovations- regularized APM or Adjusted Factors. I asked Dave Berri about regularized APM and he made one relevant observation but left other questions unanswered. There are current discussions going on about trying to improve the models further.

more on plus/minus and adjusted plus/minus

http://tinyurl.com/29csyyb

Krstic high on facing post-ups but about average at defending them.

Ibaka low on facing post-ups but quite poor (so far) at defending them.

Some select results from a study somebody else did from Synergy data:

Center's defense against post-up play calls:
Code:
Plays PPP FG% %SF %TO
1. Al Horford 284 0.69 36.1 7.7 13.7
3. Dwight Howard 212 0.71 34.2 9.4 13.7
7. Andrew Bynum 175 0.76 38.2 6.3 10.9
15. Marcin Gortat 124 0.81 40.2 9.7 7.3
25. Pau Gasol 176 0.87 43.3 8.0 10.2
27. Nenad Krstic 222 0.87 44.4 9.5 8.6
43. Serge Ibaka 98 1.04 50.0 16.3 7.1
out of about 50 (Collison got missed)

SF% is % of possession resulting in shooting fouls
PPP is points scored per possession

Number of post-ups defended / 48 min

among the highest
7.8 Chuck Hayes
6.4 Mohammed,Nazr
6.1 Krstic,Nenad
5.5 Gortat,Marcin

among the lowest

3.8 Bogut,Andrew
3.7 Andersen,Chris
3.6 Howard,Dwight
3.6 Ibaka,Serge

I am assuming they visually ascertained the post-up denfense rather than from assumed play by play match-ups.

Another observer suggested that Ibaka routinely got the least likely to post-up guy, at least when Collison was out there.

Look at the Lakers lineup in the 4th in close games. There was no Andrew Bynum so Gasol played the center spot and Odom battled with Green. Odom plays a terrible series and wasn't a real matchup for Jeff.

Especially if you looked at total body of work versus the focus on just the last year but I guess the latter is the measured timeframe.

OKC and Milwaukee split the hardware and alternate finishing 1 and 2 on coach and exec of the year. You could order them either way.

Presti finishes a close 2nd on exec of the year...

Yes, sorry and thanks for the clarification. My typing is not the best.

Crow :His best three lineups used over 1 minute per game were
RW, TS, KF, JG, NC (he provides a 3rd 3 point shooter and a 3rd scorer, something not coming as much from Thabo or Nick) and
RW, JH, KF, JG, NCRW, JH, KF, JG, NK(he may be a bit less “necessary” here, but it still works)

Just for clarity, I assume KF should be KD? Those keys are close together.:)

Jeff Green doesn't really stretch the floor since he's a bad shooter.

Against Mavs he hits his pts / min average,
Spurs he is clearly above,
Jazz clearly above,
Suns a bit above.
They are short of the top cutoff I selected though.

@Sam
If he gets consistently beat by every PF on playoff teams, that might be a very good indication that he shouldn't be a starter on our playoff team. Unless some significant improvement is made, Green will probably have to be a high minute (25) 6th man and clutch player. If we are a consistent 50+ win team, we can't afford Green starting without a dominant rebounding/post center.

Again no western playoff teams among his best, but only a few among his worst.

If scoring is Green's main contribution, then here are his best and worst opponents for pts per minute during the regular season:

Best- Chi, NJ, Toronto, Phil, Det, GS, Sac, Wash
Worst- Char, Den, Lakers, Mil, Bos, NY

Jeff Green would play well against the Mavs, Spurs, Jazz, Suns, and, maybe, nugs. Especially with Okur out for the rest of the playoffs, Green has the size to guard Millsap and the versatility to either be effective on the perimeter or dribble drive. The suns play fast, and I think a lineup of RW, JH/TS, KD, JG, and SI can match them. Put Ibaka on Amare if he's abusing Green, switching Green to Lopez/Frye. I don't think collison can keep up with the suns, a point driven home by his foul trouble the last time they played. For the Mavs and Spurs, they need Green's perimeter defense.

Just because Kobe can beat him off the dribble and Pau forces him to become a jumpshooter, doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a starting role in the future.

@Anonymous
Have you not been reading all year? Unless this is meant to be sarcastic in response to previous doubts about Harden, we've been on Jeff Green to be a better PF (not just player) all year.

@Anonymous
Well, I'M certainly not. Nor do I think Joe is. Uncle Jeff has a tendency to hit the big shots and make the hustle plays when the Thunder need them most, and that's an important asset to have. Plus, it's nice to have someone who can stretch the floor like he can.

On the other hand, it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to acknowledge the following argument as both valid and sound:

1) Green is playing a bit out of position at the 4.
2) Out-of-position players tend to match up poorly against players whose physical attributes and skill sets are more suited to the position.
3) The Los Angeles Lakers have Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, who are both well-suited to play the 4.
4) When we have a matchup problem with our normal starters, we should correct it by giving more time to other players.
CONC) We should correct our matchup problem at the 4 spot by giving more of Green's time there to other players.

Among players playing 30+ minutes per game. Bynum 28th.

Green 58th and 4th from last in this group.

Westbrook is 8th best on playoff PER. Durant 26th right now.
Gasol 13th, Kobe 33rd.

Durant's 19 reb performance was his career best by the way.

Ibaka's block % in the playoffs is second to Dwight Howard (well if you don't count Petro in his 10 minutes)

His best three lineups used over 1 minute per game were

RW, TS, KF, JG, NC (he provides a 3rd 3 point shooter and a 3rd scorer, something not coming as much from Thabo or Nick) and

RW, JH, KF, JG, NC
RW, JH, KF, JG, NK
(he may be a bit less "necessary" here, but it still works)

Green's offensive and defensive rebounding rates are well down in the playoffs from his already unimpressive regular season numbers.

The main lineups Green should be in are the ones that need addition to the scoring capability or 3 pt shooting in particular.

By these criteria the starting lineup has the 3 point shooter but none of the stronger on average offensive rebounders.

In the playoffs so far though Krstic has really hit the offensive glass well.

Maynor, Collisn and Ibaka have had elevated trouble with turnovers but have done other things well.

Of the just 8 lineups that got used more than 1 minute a game in the regular season, they included on average almost three 3 point shooters (if you count all above 30% on accuracy) and barely more than 1 of the stronger interior rebounders (Ibaka or Collison). I'd think a second strong rebounder, especially on the offensive glass would help, especially if they actually shot more 3s.

I mainly just answered the question of what the +/- shows. I didn't say how much weight to give this information.

Every lineup is different in some ways but replacing Thabo, Green and and Krstic with Harden, Ibaka and Collison does roughly replace the 3 point shooting and length provided by the starting lineup. Maybe that helped Brooks feel comfortable with RW, JH, KD, SI and NC, that it still fit the basic design principles.

Great write up, great thoughts and great comments from the peanut gallery. This team, and coaching staff, are growing up so fast before our very eyes and we have a lot to look forward to in the near and far future.

@Crow

Stats lie... especially the +/- records.

@Joe

Frank Brickowski was awesome.

Jeff Green's problem is simply that he's out of position. It's not like Ervin Johnson (who just wasn't skilled), he just can't capably play PF against most of the matchups in the West.

I'd guess the most change they might be willing to do with Green next season would be to cut him to barely over 30 minutes (to get Ibaka a bit more), still let him be the starter, but maybe be a closer in only about half the games.
See how he reacts to that- on the court and otherwise- and then go from there.

Denver was a problem for the Thunder in general and I guess with Green on the court too.

The current Thunder big man rotation is 4 guys. It could stay the same size next season with close to the same minute distribution or there could be tilt away from one or more especially Green. Or they could try to replace one guy entirely or squeeze in a 5th. 4 different approaches.

The worst cut-off line for listing above was -7 per 48. The very worst were Chicago and NJ at about double that.

Per minute Green's best +/- this regular season came against these teams (+7 or better per 48 minutes): Atl, Det, Miami, NY, GS, Phil, Sac, Tor (the best), Wash. No western playoff teams on that list. He did show good results on this against Atlanta.

The worst: Bos, Chi, Den, Lakers, NJ, Orl. Only 2 western playoff teams there and the Lakers were one of them.

I guess he is middling for him against most western playoff teams, in fact he is at -2.6 per 48 against them, or about 5 points worse against this much tougher competition than his raw +/- average for all teams.

He is pretty good against Dallas but a bit less than the top I named at +5.5 per 48. His time on the floor against San Antonio was just short of the bottom cutoff at -6.2 per 48.

One thing I wanted to mention but forgot to was that what Brooks did was in no way unusual amongst NBA teams, it was just unusual for us.

Back in 95-96 when we went to the finals and were one helluva team, Kemp, Payton, Detlef and Hawkins started nearly every game, and would have started every single game had their health been perfect. But the fifth starter was Ervin Johnson. Ervin started most games at the five, but only averaged 18 mpg. The real minutes at the five went to big smooth Sam Perkins and Frank Brickowski because they could do more things.

There are lots of examples but for a lot of different reasons coaches frequently start a group of players but that group doesn't get the big minutes or the minutes in crunch time. Matchups matter.

For sure Krstic is in that situation now, I'm just wondering if we are beginning to see the same with Jeff Green either for good or until he learns to make himself too valuable to come off the court. I think he could do that by attacking the rim, getting to the line, not settling for long twos and threes, and rebounding like a madman. If he did that I think we would still see Ibaka and Collison taking Krstic's minutes, but to a lesser degree Jeff Greens. He would be too valuable to remove.

The problem with green isn't green, it's durant, we all know that green is a very capable sf, he just isn't what we need at pf. He would be a good option of the bench for around 25 minutes probably but I don't think he would like a role like that, if he would accept it I would be thrilled but I doubt it

I love the core of KD RW and JG but with all due respect this off season the coaching staff and managment will have a lot to think about and if we find ourselves in a situation that a trade comes along in which we can bring in a quality player,JG will be the first to go.Not cause hes a bad player,on the contrary,but in my humble opinion hes just not putting in enough.Hopefully im wrong and well see a different Green starting from tonight and in the coming seasons too.

@sas
Green would see huge minutes against the Mavs as he would be needed to guard Dirk. The same probably can't be said for a matchup against Utah, Portland, or even Phoenix if they have Amare and Lopez. I think Green could see big minutes against a team like Denver since Kenyon isn't the threat down low that he once was (still a solid rebounder though).

Seems like Jeff and Nads both played well in both Atlanta games.

sas :Just curious, but are there teams in the Western Playoffs against whom the plus/minus would dictate playing JG more? Obviously he’s having matchup problems with the Lakers’ bigs, but there’s been other teams where he’s gone to town. If so, who are they?

The Spurs would be one of my guesses.

Jeff Green's sporting a PER of 6.3 in the playoffs so far.

Just curious, but are there teams in the Western Playoffs against whom the plus/minus would dictate playing JG more? Obviously he's having matchup problems with the Lakers' bigs, but there's been other teams where he's gone to town. If so, who are they?

Green and Krstic would be better if they didn't play TOGETHER almost always. Really hate that...

Yeah, the deviation in style charged the team, charged the crowd, and beat the Lakers. Good article.

"Green and Krstic are fine players in their own way and have been key contributors to what the Thunder have going this year, but eventually it had to happen that they would find themselves on the bench in favor of more productive players in crunch time. I tip my hat to Coach Brooks."
Agreed. Coach made some good subs in Game 3.