Wednesday Bolts – 4.28.10

I got 2 tickets in section 102 for tomorrow I need to sale. Will be out of town and can’t go and I have been offered $300 a piece for them but the guy is a Laker fan and I don’t want a laker fan there. If you are itnerested email me at osulingo@yahoo.com.

To adjust my comment a bit, I'd say it is certainly alright if some fans disagree with the substance of other fans. If they want to go after method or tone they can and will if they want to, for what that might be worth. And I guess they can be outright dismissive if they want to or even play the anti-geek card if they want to. If just that much is done, however that looks or sounds to others, it hasn't gone "too far".

If and when it goes to trying to stifle, as happens occasionally here and there around the net, that's too far. And it usually doesn't work anyways.

Many fans thinking about their sport team with a calculating mind at one time or another, to one degree or another.

Some like to push it quantitatively and see what they can find. There are a lot of data sets available these days. It is one of many ways to interact with and enjoy basketball, the challenge of good or great basketball. This site has more folks who can and will analyze the product more intensively than used to be common.

The receptivity of others to this activity will vary and come and go at different times but either you believe in letting people say and do what they want or you cross over into trying to tell others what to do and not do. I think folks should be able to do and say what they want and read or passover what they want.

I posted a lot yesterday because I found some things and that leads to other thoughts and there were also ideas from others that I thought deserved responses. On an off-day for the team, with multiple threads available, I let myself run with it and say what I found and felt at the time.

I hadn't planned on saying anything today and maybe tomorrow and maybe not much more til the draft but ultimately I take it day by day. Since you posted and wanted a response, I'll give you one.

I have experience doing quantitative analysis for organizations with large budgets and in the past I've explored consulting opportunities related to NBA analysis but I'll leave it at that.

Hard to know all about the analysis the insiders produce and use... and don't produce or use or use well... but you can see what teams actually do and don't do and either you can leave it all to them or mostly to them or you can throw in your own thoughts... 2 cents, a nickel, quarter or full dollar... about what they did and didn't do or accomplish and what you'd do the same or different. That is basically what sports fans have always done. It has gotten a lot more specific these days for some but it is not really that different in concept.

Dang ... do you guys watch games with a calculator in hand?

Just kidding ... kind of.

I hated stats class in college. I aced it, but I hated it. Do you guys do stat stuff for a living, or just sports stats for fun?

Looks like their "at the rim" FG% fell from 61% in the regular season to under 47% so far. Some drop is probably typical but that might be more than typical. The lowest any team shot at the rim in the regular season was 56%.

Looks like mid-range shots for the Thunder are down about 6 per game and 3 point shots up by about 3 compared to the regular season. Good. Most of the missing shots became the extra free throw attempts.

The Thunder have the lowest team raw FG% of any playoff team by a wide margin and it appears the eFG% would tell the same story. The 3 pt FG% is 4th lowest. FTA the very highest, by design... but the the earlier marks are somewhat a consequence of this skill and play emphasis. 5th lowest on team assists, 2nd highest on blocks. Tied for third on turnovers, 4th highest on fouls.

The pattern of big salary guys usually getting the max allowable increase has created an expectation and guys don't want to settle for less than a team "can afford" or "are allowed to offer". If the next CBA chops back yearly increases as I expect it will then the issue will lessen and front-load might even come into more favor. Especially if out years are subject to any lessening of the full guarantee.

A declining trend contract can be attractive to acquire and players may not want to be attractive to trade.

Decreasing salaries may not prevent high or very high pay on the next contract but it creates a lower visible "starting" point in the next contract salary negotiations and players may worry that will be used against them.

Some GMs may actually see it as lowering the amount of salary (and presumably value) they can get back in a trade too if they trade a contract. There are pluses and minuses of either approach, but it mostly comes down to the player and the value.

A player might also slide back in salary relative to teammates and peers and some of them might not like that feeling.

But I agree the tactic probably ought to be used more often. It can be win-win if done with the right guy in the right team situation.

Maybe teams can leverage the uncertainty of the terms of the new CBA to force a few decreasing deals so they can get the high costs out of the way before the new CBA goes in force.

Making less later on I mean..

Probably just the stigma of making less.

@justin

I'm actually surprised there aren't more front-loaded contracts. As far as I can tell, it doesn't really affect the player that much.

Let's use David Lee as an example. The only effect I can see for increasing vs decreasing is the final year of the contract is used to determine the max deal for your next contract. Let's say Lee is signed to a 5 year deal. At the end of that, he would be a 10+ year veteran, so the minimum max deal he can receive is $14,000,000.

For him to have a higher minimum max at the end of that 5 year deal, the last year of his contract would have to be higher than $13.3M; so basically a little less than a static $67M contract. That's probably the outside best he can expect, right?

Let's say he gets way overpaid and gets a $70/5y contract structured 12/13/14/15/16; so at the end of that deal, the minimum max for his next contract would be $16.8M, so on a contract where he's overpaid, he can be overpaid even more next time w/ a deal starting at $16.8M -- $2.8M higher than the default max.

BUT, a 10 vet also qualifies for the alternative default of 35% of max cap. Assuming a modest cap of $50M, the alternative default would be $17.5M

What I'm getting at is, his next contract will only be affected by this one if he is dramatically overpaid.

I get that it's uncommon; I just dont get why.

This Bucks team is amazing. Wish we were in the east.

I also don't think those guys agree to front loaded contracts those are still pretty rare. Best we should be doing is static contracts i.e. 13 mil a year.

I like the rotation but I'd lower Green's minutes a bit, more for Durant, and I'd lower Thabo's, more for Harden.

2010-11 is only $52.9M w/ Lee contract + all our current commitments excepting draft picks. Sort of trivial b/c its before Durant/Green contract extensions kick in.

Still in favor of Lee. He's not the perfect player, but I think he's the right player assuming the money is right. His salary/production value seems solid for our team. Some salary assumptions...

*Durant gets a $100/6 max offer
*Green gets a 31/4 decreasing (9/8.25/7.5/6.25)
*Westbrook gets a 55/5 (9/10/11/12/13)
*Collison gets a 18/4 (4/4.3/4.6/4.9)
*Lee gets a 60/5 decreasing (13/12.5/12/11.5/11)

I dunno much about decreasing, but I presume this structure is allowed under CBA? Or are there specific rules to how to structure it?

Anyway, this gives up a 9 man rotation for the next 3 years. Something like:

Westbrook 36/Maynor 12
Harden 24/Thabo 18/Durant 6
Durant 30/Green 18
Lee 30/Green 18
Ibaka 24/Collison 18/Lee 6

Assuming we only make qualifying offers to our 3 current rookies in 2013-14, the cost of this 9-man rotation would be:

2011-12: $54.5
2012-13: $62.2
2013-14: $67.8

Other roster spots can be filled up with prospects and picks. Keep Mullens, White and Weaver or drop them for draft picks du jour if you don't think they'll pan out.

This series has been pretty even on most things, both teams better on D than offense. Lakers not as bad shooting from the field but offset by shooting poorly from the FT line. Thunder getting about 5 more FTAs per game than their regular season average.

Probably not, the odds of actually getting any decent big by trade are low. But the odds of by trade may be better than by free agency or draft.

The time to acquire Sammy was the deadline. Don't think Philly trades him now...

I would not sell Dalambert as good value ratio in general but...

not yet 29, in last season of his contract, will cost less in the future, would temporarily help need to meet team minimum salary, is a true center, plays or can play defense, it is not coming from an always played huge minutes background, might be available at modest cost, has playoff experience and generally did about the same overall with an improvement in defensive rebounding being the notable gain...

I don't think it would be a terrible move... easy enough to end after a year. If they are willing to discuss I'd explore the possibility. There are worse names / contracts.

Summer league isn't really generally worth talking about but he will be able to experiment and try to expand his game there- post-up, passing, dribble-finish.

Sene was whatever he was in extremely few NBA minutes. But I probably should let his name and that usage go.

My main point was that there is a measure upon which Ibaka has a long way to go. If his year 1 estimate was too negative compared to his real impact or if he improves substantially, great. I do expect he will but I'd like to see it "confirmed".

Ibaka's got little BBIQ but it's still a mountain more than Sene had. Sene was awful.

If Sene had played enough to get Ibaka's 1 year Adjusted +/- score this season it probably would have been criticized but Ibaka gets year 2 and probably 3 to correct it. Primarily on team offense when he is out there.

Ibaka's Adjusted +/- will be more significant, to me, next season. Will want to see improvement.

Whether you look at the value of blocks in general or the ADP of superior block performance the Ibaka pick is good on those criteria. And some other things.

I forgive him for his volume shooting because that team doesn't have a lot of weapons, but he's also a much distributor than I thought he would be. And when he's on like he's been for the past few games he's electrifying to watch. Kid is 19, that's pretty impressive.

Jennings had a lower rookie TS% than Russ despite his 3pt shooting, that's a hard thing to do.

He's good when he's hot... reminds me of another PG I know..

Brandon Jennings has made me a believer.

I really don't like him but Chris Kaman might be available from the Clippers. Would probably have to give up Green to get him...

Guess not. Huzzah.

Well, I finally set an avatar... is there anything special I have to do once I set up my gravatar account?

I'd be much more excited about Amir Johnson than Nazr.

I suppose in the long list of potential acquisitions this summer, Nazr Muhammed would rate a .02 on the excitement meter, right around where Amir Johnson registers and orders of magnitude less than a Splitter or Love or Bosh or Lee.

Johnson is one of the better 20 minute per game bigs out there. Not that stellar a group to compete against and maybe he will never be more but nobody has let him try yet.

Waiting can help be surer, but the sooner you can make the right call on keep or move on, the better though usually as time to get it really right is usually shorter than you'd wish. It comes down to how sure you are in your assessment.

If they trade away a core guy, probably not til after next season or the one after, playoff performance should be a pretty big part of the decision.

If they add a veteran his playoff performance should be a pretty big part of the decision.

Nazr did poorly in the playoffs. Regular season and playoffs are different. I back off the regular season, against all teams interest I showed.

It is one thing if Green or Harden's individual stats lag relative to their draft pick level, especially in year 2 or 3. But if that and "fit" as measured by Adjusted +/- both lag and the latter continues to lag very badly as it has for Green then either the pick was not good or the role needs to change or a trade might need to happen to get the highest value. Harden has fit better than he has performed as an individual so far. You need to deliver on both though if you are a very high pick.

To date it doesn't seem that insiders in general have very high an opinion of Amir Johnson. Toronto should definitely try to keep him in my opinion with or without Bosh but I don't know if they will try or will succeed.

I like his stat case. That is not the end of it, inside perspective is helpful but you have to prove that it supersedes what the stats suggest on balance.

OKC has a western conference schedule. It may not be 1st choice for home but a western conference schedule may be preferred by some player. Johnson is from LA.

I wonder if the Lakers would try to add him. They need a PG far more but still.

From what I saw of Charlotte in the playoffs Nazr looked out of shape.

I still don't know what to think of Nazr Mohammed.

@Sammy

Serge had one of the beastly put backs on him.. and I get that impression too, yet somehow he's productive. Strange. Maybe he just needs the right environment because he seems talented.

@justin
He's come up from time to time, but, man, every time I watch him he does not impress at all. He seems like he has no bball iq and is generally disinterested in the game.

I am bouncing around but:

"Cost" broadly defined should be based on draft pick, 1st contract salary and 2nd contract salary.

Draft pick level and 2nd contract salary level should vary by player type and impact but in some cases it doesn't as much as it probably should.

Average salary for a certain level of performance by position is important to be mindful of. PER is probably the easiest data to assemble. Adjusted +/-, or statistical +/- or something else or a weighted average are also available options. To get a PER 17 PF or C the league on average pays X, to get PER19 Y, PER 15, Z etc. You need some benchmarks when you negotiate that next contract. Every team does it differently. Surely all use the stats but some will be more refined and better at getting impact for cost.

Bargnani got a big early extension because he was a high draft pick and he had large per game stats. He has terrible Adjusted +/- and it is not impressive on PER and has some rates that are average or less. I'd think the same amount of money could easily buy more performance impact used on other players.