The guideposts to next year – 1. The NBA Draft

The core to me is Durant / Westbrook / Harden / Ibaka. Harden and Ibaka due to age and uncertaintly regarding their progression and Durant / Westbrook for obvious reasons. Everyone else should be looked at real close to determine exactly where they fit on this team long term. i.e. it's obvious Green is a SF, not a PF, not a SG. Do you really need two SF's as part of your core? Are you going to extend him and over pay him to come off the bench?

Jeff Green is not part of this core unless you accept that he is our starting PF. I can't see how anyone can accept that at this point, after seeing what he's done (and has not done) in his role this year.

@kev
I would agree with you, but they are not so far that you have to bust up the core by trading Green or making another dramatic move. This team got by all season on effort and chemistry - one wrong roster move and both go away.

I'm just saying that I don't expect Presti to rock the boat too much. When your superstar says he wants to stay here forever and play with THIS group of guys, I think you give that some weight.

this team (the way it is now) is NOT built to win a championship for the above reasons . . .

J.G. :@kev Green could definitely be extended then traded (sign and trade), but along what Bryan said, I’m thinking all is going to be pretty quiet on the trade front unless the PERFECT deal comes along or some high lotto team wants out of a Top 10 pick.@Bryan
That being said, the interior defense was not the Achilles heel of this team, interior scoring and efficient offense was…and I still don’t see anyone on the roster who can post up at the 5 spot and generate offense. I’m not saying they go out and grab a $12-15 million dollar center, but the need has to be addressed in some way with a SOLID center who can post up and continue the defensive mindset of this team on the other end.

I agree about interior defense not really being a weakness . . .

in order of importance . . .

defense at the point . . .
low post scoring . . .
outside scoring . . .

@kev
Green could definitely be extended then traded (sign and trade), but along what Bryan said, I'm thinking all is going to be pretty quiet on the trade front unless the PERFECT deal comes along or some high lotto team wants out of a Top 10 pick.

@Bryan
That being said, the interior defense was not the Achilles heel of this team, interior scoring and efficient offense was...and I still don't see anyone on the roster who can post up at the 5 spot and generate offense. I'm not saying they go out and grab a $12-15 million dollar center, but the need has to be addressed in some way with a SOLID center who can post up and continue the defensive mindset of this team on the other end.

I seriously doubt that Presti makes any major moves. Durant himself said he feels like the team already has the tools to win a championship and I seriously doubt that he is the only one on the team who thinks that way.

It seems to me like this is a dedicated group of guys that will be working their tails off over the summer. I would be very surprised if both Green and Thabo don't improve their game, esp when they know they are fighting for a starting role, the respect of their team mates, and a championship.

I would also remind everyone that this group of guys just finished a 50 win season by playing some solid interior defense (even if that is mostly because of help D from the 2 and 3 spots).

*breakqons = breakdowns . . .

J.G. :@kev I’m with you on everyone in that list except Ibaka, Maynor and Green. Green, because you won’t get the same value back because of his rookie contract and he’s a team captain and piece of the core, no matter how many individuals don’t want to see that.
Maynor because he’s a first year point guard who showed signs that he’s capable of holding down the fort if needed without making a fuss about playing time, which is rare.
And Ibaka because he is, without question, the third most untouchable piece on this team. Not only has he developed faster than ANYONE thought and raised his ceiling considerably, but he’s just as valuable as Collison and costs about $5 million dollars less and also is the only big on the roster who could develop into a legit star down low for the next decade (plus you absolutely could NEVER get equal value for him as well).
But Kev, you actually want to get rid of Collison? I’m kind of shocked by this. And I agree, no room for 4 draft picks, so I wouldn’t be surprised if those 4 draft picks don’t turn into 1 pick after it’s all said and done.

I love Collison's game - most people that read the breakdqons know that. I'm a big Thabo fan when he's healthy -

BUT someone has to be moved - and you have to give value to get it - if I was GM I would listen to all offers - we can't give up DJ White, Mullens, and some low first round picks and expece to get anything back - unless we sign a big man in FA - we aren't getting a decent one in a trade without giving up something . . .

Green could be extended then traded, right? . . .

@kev
I'm with you on everyone in that list except Ibaka, Maynor and Green. Green, because you won't get the same value back because of his rookie contract and he's a team captain and piece of the core, no matter how many individuals don't want to see that.

Maynor because he's a first year point guard who showed signs that he's capable of holding down the fort if needed without making a fuss about playing time, which is rare.

And Ibaka because he is, without question, the third most untouchable piece on this team. Not only has he developed faster than ANYONE thought and raised his ceiling considerably, but he's just as valuable as Collison and costs about $5 million dollars less and also is the only big on the roster who could develop into a legit star down low for the next decade (plus you absolutely could NEVER get equal value for him as well).

But Kev, you actually want to get rid of Collison? I'm kind of shocked by this. And I agree, no room for 4 draft picks, so I wouldn't be surprised if those 4 draft picks don't turn into 1 pick after it's all said and done.

EDIT - throw in Mullens, if anyone is foolish enough to take him . . .

There needs to be a step forward - we cant assume another 50 win season - why?

the major reason is luck - we had (probably) the least amount of (rotational) injuries in the NBA - that probably won't happen again . . .

Green, Ibaka, Thabo, Maynor, Collison, Weaver, and DJ White should all be on the trading block - as well as some of the picks - we dont have room for two 1st round players with guaranteed contracts -

make a package with some of the above to improve the team . . .

@jdstorm
Its not as if other GMs are unaware of the value of good contracts. Because Thabo has a good contract, he definitely is more valuable to us, but assuming other GMs are not idiots and also value money (which is a big assumption) then Thabo should be equally valuable to other teams (good for use in a trade). I also think Thabo is getting a lot of press this year, which has increased his profile and hopefully would make him worth more in the open market.

That said, I'd be fine with using Thabo only 15 minutes a game unless we play a team with a hot SG (like the Nuggets or Lakers at times)

Bob :

AD :So, is it crazy to think that Green will work this summer and come back more the player we need him to be? How about Thabo? Harden? Ibaka?

Thabo usually plays for the swiss national team in the summer.

Thabo has already said that he won't play for the Swiss team this Summer. He plans on working with two different coaches to improve his offense. Plus he plans on returning back to OKC early for extra training.

AD :
So, is it crazy to think that Green will work this summer and come back more the player we need him to be? How about Thabo? Harden? Ibaka?

Thabo usually plays for the swiss national team in the summer.

@AD

If we don't bring back Shakur next season, we'll have 12 players on the roster and be a little over $4M UNDER the required salary minimum. So we have to sign $4M worth of players this off season. Period.

So what do we do with it? I don't see us getting rid of Thabo or Green, even though I agree w/ Justin that there isn't really room on our team for both of them. (Short explanation: they should both be on the bench and both should be getting spot minutes at the 3, but there isn't enough left over after Durant gets his. There's only room for @ the 2 if he figures out how to shoot the corner 3, otherwise his minutes @ the 2 will need to go to a shooter.)

So we're probably going to spend money on a big man, right? Green is not a big man; he's a 3. Collison and Krstic expire after next season. We might extend one, but I doubt we extend both. I seriously doubt White sees any extended burn without an injury (probably more than one). That leaves Ibaka, Mullens, who may or may not ever be anything, and whoever we draft this offseason.

Depending on how much we overpay Green -- because he will be overpaid if we resign him this summer instead of waiting -- we have room for a $10-12M contract for the next several years.

So we could sign a quality player, or we could sign practice fodder. But someone will get signed. Do you think the organization is the type to waste the money or the type to "make a splash"?

So, is it crazy to think that Green will work this summer and come back more the player we need him to be? How about Thabo? Harden? Ibaka?

Everybody is going on and on about free agents, but when has Presti shown that he'd sign any of them to big fa deals?

Presti is all about growth and development. Don't expect some big fancy splash this summer with regard to free agency.

@Bob

we should definitely keep Thabo. he has a great contract. the real question in my mind is does he deserve to start given his level of offense? Right now i think the answer is yes, but it is conditional on improved accuracy from 3. i don't really care about any other parts of his game, but as a defensive player he should at least be able to space the floor for russ and KD. If he can't then maybe he becomes more like our Mickael Pietrus. extra wing defensive depth.

For the team to get balanced, either Jeff Green or Thabo Sefolosha must be moved or given much smaller roles... otherwise, Green's going to be seeing a lot of PF minutes and that seems to me like where our troubles start and end a lot of the time.

*trade DJ White and picks and move up for Aminu.

justin :
Another option, unlikely, is trading Sefolosha for a big body. Maybe Thabo + picks + something for Dalembert. Then a lineup such as:

Thabo has a great contract and we extended him for 4 years. He is a great defender, great rebounder and sets the tone defensively. When Presti aquired him he exactly knew that thabo isnt a offensive threat and thats why he drafted James Harden, to give us a boost offensively from the bench (ginobili style). And now the question why move him? Presti i think and hope won't move anyone. I just cant wait for the draft. If Presti could trade DJ White for draft pics and get Al-farouq Aminu... i would have a Tattoo of him days later. Aminu will be Rooke of the Year next season... You heard it here first.

Meanwhile, James Harden shot nearly 50% from the base lines this season, but they only accounted for a little over one fifth of his 3pt attempts. This is a reason Harden should start, BTW. Stick him into the starting lineup and in the corners and he'll be deadly. When he's initiating offense with that second unit he doesn't get to the corners as much, and he's not as good (still decent) a shooter from the elbows.

@jdstorm

There's no real rhyme or reason to Thabo's hot zones. He shot ~34.5% from the base lines this year, which is decent, but not great. And even that number is highly suspect because his right base line % seems inordinately high.

My advice for Thabo would to be to try and stop shooting threes from anywhere but the baselines. That alone would probably increase his 3pt% to 33%+, maybe higher if he works on it. Aside from that it's just about mastering technique, his jumper has been broken his whole career. His monthly splits are ridiculous.

I was a proponent of both Thabo and Kristic at the beginning of the season, not much has changed as far as Thabo is concerned. I think he brings a defensive presence to this ans maturity that really set the tone for the rest of the team. He is a legit top 5 defender in the league and makes up for his poor shooting percentage with the amount of fast break points that he initiates, or at the very least the amount of turnovers he forces that lead directly to offensive baskets.

Nenad is a different story, when he is on...he's on, his 15 footer at the beginning of the season was automatic, but for a 7 foot Serbian it's almost hard to believe that there were only 4 games the entire season he got 10 rebounds or more. He averaged 5 rebounds a game....our starting point guard (admittingly with more mins) averaged 4.9...think about that for a second.

My second gripe about Nenad...no heart, the guy showed no emotion during the games. If you saw any emotion at all it was a negative one, hanging his head feeling sorry for himself. I'm also convinced we lost game 6 because of of Nad. No because of the poor defense (which contributed) but because he's 7 foot tall and missed two unguarded lay ups... I mean, honestly he could have just reached up and dropped them in but he tryed to bounce one off the glass and one by the rim...both short. I knew that if we lost the game it would have been because of those two lay ups. My 6 year old cousin can make those unguarded, somehow a 7 foot Slavic center can't.

If we want an offensive minded center, why not go after Channing Frye who drops 44% from deep, get's 5.3 rebounds and adds a block every game.

@ JayJay
imo thabo could be a kind of our Trevor Ariza, he just needs a little bit more confidence in his drive and a better pct from deep 2 and 3. Ariza in 08/09 shot just about the same pct than Thabo this year (31%)...

C'mon, all the Ray Allen / Raya Bell stuff must be a joke.. Would you realy have a 35 year old that can not defend at all or a 34 year old on the wrong side of his prime who has never profen he can make the difference for a team to win it all, has not a better drive than tabo and shoots bearly better than him? I dont get all the hating on thabo, that guy is still young and has the best part of his career still coming. Why should you give up on him now (esp after we extended him) and get a Big (or a old SG!!!) back if you know that next season you might be better but not a top 3 contender? Let's give him one more season and 2 more off-seasons and see how he improves his shooting and prepeare be ready to win it all in 2012...

@jdstorm

i meant to say "in a good team"

@justin
So Any advice on why Thabo cant shoot, because as great as he is a defense he should probably be a 5th wing type player as in

SG defence with 3 ball/ Harden/ thabo
SF KD/ Uncle Jeff/ thabo

@justin

I meant Jeff Green could be a 35-36% 3pt shooter for his career...

Kevin Durant is much easier to solve. He hardly takes any threes from the baselines, they account for less than 5% of his 3pt attempts.

I think Durant just shot more threes and is a victim of volume. He shot over 120 more threes, so you expect the percentage to come down some.

Durant shot almost 50% on straight away threes last year, which just isn't a sustainable figure. This year those straight away attempts (often a foot or two back from the line) accounted for 10% more of his 3pt attempts this year, and naturally he didn't shoot them at 49% again. He shot 37.5% on elbow three's, a great figure on his volume of attempts, and not that much below his 41.75% mark from the elbows last year.

KD should probably eliminate some of those threes he takes from a few feet behind the line and get his distribution back to where it was last year, with more elbow threes and less straight away attempts. I think he could be a 40% shooter in good seasons, if he does that.

Jeff Green's 3pt shooting is tricky to solve.

Last year he had two huge hot spots. The right elbow and the left baseline. He shot above 40% from both areas, and right below 40% from straight away.

Aside from taking more threes in general, Jeff Green's distribution of 3pt attempts changed some. The right elbow, which was where he took and made the most of his 3pt attempts last year (38 for 95) accounted for 15% fewer of his attempts this season. Left Baseline was his best spot again this year, but not as good as last year (9% worse). He also took far many more baseline threes in general this year (37% of his 3pt attempts) than last year (23% of his 3pt attempts).

Looking at the percentages, I think he's probably a bit better of a shooter than he showed this year but nowhere near as good as he showed last year. I think he could be a 37-38% shooter from 3pt range for his career. He should probably try for more elbow three pointers where he seems to have more consistent success. His 3pt% last year seems high because of an abnormal % on the left baseline that season... he's been relatively consistent on the elbows.

@Deseps
i think Green is the "Stretch 4" of the future which puts him in a lamar odom, Rashard lewis category of good against certain match ups. which realistically means a 6th or 7th starter unless their is no one better, or a C that hordes rebounds

Speaking of acquiring i think this big F/A summer could be great for us.

The clippers have pick 8 and lots starting talent at all positions except SF which they are hoping will be Lebron.

since the best wing players will either be gone or aren't worth taking that high and the clips need more depth they would trade pick 8 for our three best picks. and a slightly lesser cap hit.

And we get a chance at pretty much whoever we want.

@jdstorm

If Green is the PF of the future, then we totally need to add someone.

If not, there's your guy.

@Deseps

I think we do need an additional wing shooter to add to the rotation.
though harden thabo and green shooting better would be great.
we need a back up for Durant. one of this team's biggest weaknesses was a lack of depth

How does Green shoot some 39% from 3 last year and was horrendous at times this year? At least he doubled his blocks per game.

And KD shot 42% from 3 last year as well, just 36 this year.

If we could get those two to return to their previous year three-point performances, that would help. Coupled with Harden's and maybe even Russ? (made 2 three's in the LA series)

justin :

Deseps :I think the focus this offseason should be three point shooting. Outside of a low post scorer, that’s what’s holding our offense back.

Where does a shooter get minutes?

I wasn't referring to acquisitions. I was talking about getting Harden and Green up to par with the three ball so that we don't have to look for another shooter.

There is nothing really novel in this train of thought but here is a quick and loose set of reasons why Krstic and his agent might possibly select to opt out:

Lots of teams with cash now

The uncertainty of the CBA

Wallace, McDyess got paid pretty big last season and K is younger. The MLE or most of it for multiple years is probably is obtainable from somebody

Potential uncertainty about minutes going forward

Shots are hard to come by and likely to get harder

Lock in that last long contract even if it costs you a bit the first season because there is the injury threat and your stats might go down and you'd be older, etc.

A dozen teams probably need somebody like K

He has gambled before (going to Russia) and eventually "won"

More likely they suggest they might possibly opt out and try to get an extension. And see what they hear from the Thunder and other teams.

I don't know how they see it. That is one way to look at it though.

Deseps :I think the focus this offseason should be three point shooting. Outside of a low post scorer, that’s what’s holding our offense back.

Where does a shooter get minutes?

justin :
Can’t imagine Krstic opting out.

We could only hope so.

justin :

Greg :Rondo is carving up the Cavs. This series is about to get interesting.

I noticed someone woke ‘Sheed up as well.

Sheed is valuable whenever he feels like going inside the 3 pt arc.

I think the focus this offseason should be three point shooting. Outside of a low post scorer, that's what's holding our offense back.

Very nice wrap-up article from Hoopsworld/Susan: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=16114

I thought before the series started that Boston had a decent chance..

Greg :Rondo is carving up the Cavs. This series is about to get interesting.

I noticed someone woke 'Sheed up as well.

Rondo is carving up the Cavs. This series is about to get interesting.

Collison, Ibaka, Durant, Harden, Westbrook

Spurs won with Bowen shooting 40% from 3pt range, and they had the best low post scorer in the game.

The Spurs won with Bruce Bowen, so we can with Thabo if we get a low post scorer. Id trade Nenad + a first rounder for Gortat. 7 mil/yr for 4 years is reasonable for a starting center. I just hope he wouldnt turn out to be Jim Mcllvaine part 2

Point is we should be finding ways to make use of our versatility more.. Weaver shot the three very well in D-League, he might have utility as a shooter. Adopt a 10 man rotation with Weaver mixed into the above and cut Ibaka / Collison minutes to go smaller with Green at PF if needed.

In any event, I think we need another big body, an active center type so we can operate in situations where Krstic is sucking without needing to play Ibaka or Collison at center all the time. Dalembert is one type, Gortat would be another (though I'm not high on him).

If we're going to keep Jeff Green, he's going to have to play more small forward. For him to do that, Durant is going to have to play more SG. For Durant to do that, Thabo's basically eliminated from the picture. I don't think Durant playing at SG is a catastrophe in a second unit situation. So to me, Thabo is the odd man out in the equation, if we keep Green.