Well that was fun – The Lakers eliminate OKC, 95-94

Thabo does start for a reason as does everyone. But if he doesn't finish that often or isn't considered vital for that, he might not absolutely need to start either, in my opinion. Just play 20 minutes mostly against the starter sometime during the game, especially when he is hot. And perhaps changing to Thabo might disrupt, be a little different than a star beginning against him finding his spots & tricks and then flowing.

I think Green has the least unique, vital role with the starting unit- he is now the 3rd scorer, 3rd rebounder at best (by rebound rate) and 4th on assist rate.

I'd change at least one of Thabo, Green and Krstic. Probably based on who is the best new fit. To get a good lineup fit you might need to change more than one. Ibaka and Collison or Harden and Ibaka or Ibaka and Harden or one of these and a new guy.

if Thabo is going to play anywhere more than 10 minutes, he should be starting. Thabo is a defensive stopper, that is his role. No one needs a defensive stopper to shut down the 8th and 9th men of the world. Harden should get starter minutes and crunch time minutes, but Thabo should actually start.

Ideally-
Harden 28 minutes a game
Thabo 20

I can't see a 6th perimeter player so if there is a 10th man in the rotation it would probably have to be a 5th big. Seems unlikely. Hard to say if it would help til you know who it is. Ideally it would help for whatever the biggest match-up problem is on the inside. Whether that is a big PF who can score or a center who can score somehow I'll leave open.

If you relax the cutoff to 10 minutes more teams had 9=10 man rotations in the playoffs. Maynor would have been the 9th of course. Would they go to 10 next season? Wait n see.
If they don't that would mean the rotation would either stay the same or somebody gets bumped out.

Yeah I guess. A small difference anyways, less than a full 2 minutes. I guess battling Artest also required a bit more rest.

Crow :Green without Durant was actually better for Green than with Durant and was close to neutral in the series.
Durant plays almost 40 minutes a game in the regular season but only 38 in the playoffs? I expected 42-44.

I'm sure the two blowouts had something to do with Durant's minutes looking down.

Utah had to change its starting lineup. San Antonio sort of chose to. Neither replacement lineup was strong but both won.

The Suns had the 5th most used lineup in the regular season and it did pretty well. But with 2 weeks left they brought in a new guy to the team and the starting lineup and made that the most used lineup in the playoffs and it did alright, a little better than the one it replaced as top lineup and they advanced.

By this way of slicing. A different criteria might yield a different impression.

Whether to go more concentrated or stay with the same general pattern depends on who you have and who you can get.

Still, this comparison to other teams might provide some useful perspective.

For what it is worth, if you are interested:

Despite emphasizing the starting lineup no western playoff team played less guys for 25+ minutes per game than the Thunder at 4. Dallas nearly had 7. The average was almost 6.

Only the Suns played more guys (5) than the Thunder (4) between 15-25 minutes. The average was almost 2.5.

The average western playoff team used a bit over 8 guys more than 15 minutes a game. The Thunder used 8.

In terms of minute usage OKC was overall most like Phoenix.

There is no inherently right distribution but the Thunder were on the less concentrated tail-end.

There were 15 lineups used over 30 minutes beyond the starting lineup 5 were negative on raw +/-. All but one had 2 of Sefolosha, Green, Ibaka and Kristic on the court and in two cases they had 3 of them.

By contrast most of the positive lineups only had one of these on the court and none had more than 2.

There are different ways to field 5 and not have more than 2 of these guys and sometimes just one. Right now Collison is pretty critical to this. New players will give new options, options that need to evaluated ultimately in regular season games to figure out as much as you can before the next playoffs.

Maybe the named 4 improve and they figure out to fit them in better. Keep using the ones that do in their best lineups, consider all options if they don't.

Yeah Keith, used the right way... the playoffs can be considered educational and illuminating.

If they roll the same starting lineup out for big minutes at the start of next season I would not be surprised, even though I'd prefer the training camp and first month be a pretty open season for trials and evaluation.

If they roll the same thing out in the next playoffs I would lean toward being at least "disappointed", unless it changed its behavior against good defense, playoff level teams.

Not every team can choose 5 of 9 or more guys and find a nice handful of lineups that work well. Flexibility is not only good, it may be necessary unless you can absolutely bulldozer everybody and maybe only about 4 teams can do that.

I'd be all for heavy use of a starting lineup, if it was the best you had.

Keith :@justinI don’t see Durant moving back to the 2. His defense in Kobe is difference than a full season defense against speedy 2s. Kobe is essentially an outside shooter (bothered by Durant’s length) and post scorer (which he can’t get to against Durant). If he was speedy Kobe of the past, that matchup would not have worked (nor do I think it would against most opposing 2s).
If we shift someone to the 2, why not Green? He’s arguably more athletic than Durant, Kev has marked him consistently as being good at closing out but not post D, and Durant’s length makes him more suited to the 3. Granted I don’t really want to see either playing the 2 for long stretches. What is the point in having Thabo/Harden if neither play the majority of minutes at their natural position?

good point, but the designation is no big deal - either one of them can guard the two based on matchups . . . we need to ditch the "same starting five concept" - Harden, Green, and Durant could rotate at the two based on matchups - our scheme will cover up for the slight mismatch at the two AND we dont have to worry about the offensive side as much - our wing players will both be three point shooters - the way it should be . . .

@Crow
I think something important from this playoff series is that it reaffirmed what we already knew. We knew this team had to live or die with defense, and defense was the reason they played as well as they did. We knew that the frontcourt was weak, and that defensive rebounding was an issue. We were consistently carved up by the Laker bigs. We knew Green wasn't very effective in the starting lineup, that Thabo was a liability on offense, and that our offensive execution was still rather poor. All of that came through.

One of my fears going into the playoffs was that Thabo/Green/Krstic would just go off for a game or two and the team would have no choice but to blindly stick with them forever. By reaffirming what we already thought, it cements our needs. We don't have to jump at small samples (maybe Ibaka can play C) or short trends (was our defense breaking down at the end of the year). Presti, Brooks, and the guys can go into the offseason knowing exactly what they need to do to improve. That may very well be the most important thing any team playoff team can say.

Another to look at it:

Starting lineup -36
Next 8 most used team lineups +35 (6 of 8 were positive)
The remaining 24 lineups -9

There are plan Bs that worked in the time given.
You can what if, if you are willing / want to.

Too bad those 4 particular positive in the regular season and playoffs lineups were only used for 20% of Green's time in the series. I guess they make decisions another way.

Small samples but the 4 lineups that worked most / best for Green in the playoffs were also positive in the regular season too. The regular season didn't prove it was good because it was small sample but it did end up working the same. So I pay some attention to this stuff.

Green without Durant was actually better for Green than with Durant and was close to neutral in the series.

Durant plays almost 40 minutes a game in the regular season but only 38 in the playoffs? I expected 42-44.

Durant at SG in the playoffs was +7 in about 50 minutes. He was exactly even for his total time on court so his non-SG time was -7 in about 180 minutes. Maybe they could have used him a bit more at SG in that series. It worked alright.

I've felt Green at SG in general might be worth a look too, a power guard to match-up against power guards or exploit smaller, lighter guys- and to put Durant initially nearer the post more often to score, get fouled or pass or just shake things up.

I dunno if it would have worked against Kobe. Durant's length was the main thing that could bother Kobe.

Do it in practice and pre-season first and see what it looks like / does. Might need to drop 10 pounds if they were to shift the focus away from PF much.

Durant without Green was +22 in the series. So -22 with. Never bought the Green is a great partner for Durant thing.

@justin
I don't see Durant moving back to the 2. His defense in Kobe is difference than a full season defense against speedy 2s. Kobe is essentially an outside shooter (bothered by Durant's length) and post scorer (which he can't get to against Durant). If he was speedy Kobe of the past, that matchup would not have worked (nor do I think it would against most opposing 2s).

If we shift someone to the 2, why not Green? He's arguably more athletic than Durant, Kev has marked him consistently as being good at closing out but not post D, and Durant's length makes him more suited to the 3. Granted I don't really want to see either playing the 2 for long stretches. What is the point in having Thabo/Harden if neither play the majority of minutes at their natural position?

Great post!

The only western team that had a worse producing starting lineup in the playoffs was Dallas. They like OKC just had neutral results from it in the regular season, but at least they only used theirs less than half as much as the Thunder did. If the Thunder had cut the starting lineup usage back some it might have been enough. But roll on...

There are a lot of ways to improve team shooting efficiency, from development to minute shifts to new players to new plays & shot instructions. To move up they just need to get it done.

The progress at the end of the regular season was encouraging but that is a time of year that is subject to teams coasting or teams that have quit playing D.

They did better than expected and will get better. They have one side of the court figured out and about half of the other side.

@Crow

Starting Harden over Sefolosha would probably help this. Well maybe not shooting efficiency (eFG) but definitely scoring efficiency (TS).

They were bottom 5 on shooting efficiency or real close to it at the PG and SG positions for the regular season, a bit better than average at PF and C (helped by Ibaka and Collison) and top 5 at SF. They probably need to change one of the bottom 5s to near average or one of the near averages to strong. Two changes would be a major success.

Starting lineup lost by 36 in the series, rest of lineups won by 26.

Compared to the scoreboard on a game by game basis the starting lineup's time on the court lost 3 games and contributed to the loss of the 4th. They won despite the starting lineup results in one game and it actually deserves credit for winning one game. But 5 out of 6 times it was negative on +/-.

Match-ups matter and there was plenty to show it was not likely to work much against the Lakers. They call the shots but I call it a predictable, preventable, unfortunate choice to stick with that starting lineup quite as much as they did. The five lineups I thought before the series they should use even more than they did in the regular season in aggregate were in fact the reason the series pulled as close as it was.

Still they also had 3 guys who shot in the lowest 8 on eFG% in the playoffs among guys who played 50+ minutes and 6 of the lowest 20. Maybe next time fewer shot that bad, but clearly the offense needs major revision.

They were the 3rd worst team on shooting efficiency in the regular season to make the playoffs and the worst in the west. To then shoot the worst of any against a decent Lakers defense has no real surprise. They both deserve plenty of credit for other things, but responsibility for this issue lies both with Brooks for his play design & calls and relative lack of emphasis & insufficient team and player development over the year and Presti for making other things a higher priority over shooting efficiency in so many roster decisions.

In the first round in the West the better shooting team in the regular season won every series and the worst defensive team managed to win 3 of the 4. Shooting efficiency really matters a lot. Hopefully they get or develop or simply demonstrate more next time.

To KD: Man, you really cemented yourself as a superstar and a leader for this team. I really enjoyed having a great person, not just great player on this team, who my own children could actually look up to...well other than me. I can expect to see even more growth and maturity next season from you.

To Westbrook: You proved the doubters wrong all season with your playmaking skills and your determination to be a good PG. You were the heartbeat of the team and continued to step up to the plate as a floor general. I see an even more dynamic season for you next time you lace em up for the 10-11 season.

To Green: I know you had a up and down season, but there were times that you made the winning plays and the stone cold blooded clutch shots. You gave it your all every game and left it all on the court, for that I am truly grateful. Continue to work on that jumper and your propensity to attack the basket.

To Harden: I was one of the fans who didn't even wanna draft you (ask J.G.) but i've come to love and respect your game. You're a smooth operator and have so much potential to be a great player. You have came along well this season and if this team has showed me anything, I know next season you're gonna set the NBA on fire. Work hard all summer with your pals and I know you will start and punish all your naysayers as you did with me this season.

To Ibaka: Where do I start with you? You learn so fast i'm almost scared to fathom where you're gonna be in respect to your game next season. You're easily my second favorite player on the team next to KD, I knew you would be awesome, but not this fast! A lot of fans didn't know what to think about you before you came over from europe, but for some odd reason I knew you would be a key piece to this team. Judging by your speedy learning curve, I know you'll be a core player by next season.

Thanks to all the Thunder players and the whole organization for making this a memorable season for me and my family!! Champions next year??

We could always go with that lineup if and whenever Harden still has his inconsistencies.

Mark! :

justin :Could we conceivably see a return of KD to the SG spot? Westbrook / Durant / Green / Lee / Ibaka. Now that’s versatile.

I don’t see it. Maybe it looked different at home, but I thought KD was exposed on defense @ SG. He was amazing one on one, post or perimeter — especially in iso — but there were stretches early in the game where he was absolutely abused in pick and roll. Not sure why the Lakers went away from that, but I think it would be an issue if KD played the 2 on a regular basis. I know that goes aginat what kev said but again, maybe it looked different on TV.

he had issues on pick and roll, but mot moreso than Thabo or anyone else on Kobe - I am just saying he could see plenty of time there or conceivably start there - he was better on Kobe than anyone else we had . . .

justin :Could we conceivably see a return of KD to the SG spot? Westbrook / Durant / Green / Lee / Ibaka. Now that’s versatile.

i think it's a possibility

justin :
Could we conceivably see a return of KD to the SG spot? Westbrook / Durant / Green / Lee / Ibaka. Now that’s versatile.

I don't see it. Maybe it looked different at home, but I thought KD was exposed on defense @ SG. He was amazing one on one, post or perimeter -- especially in iso -- but there were stretches early in the game where he was absolutely abused in pick and roll. Not sure why the Lakers went away from that, but I think it would be an issue if KD played the 2 on a regular basis. I know that goes aginat what kev said but again, maybe it looked different on TV.

@Kev
I meant the 3rd quarter, when Kobe was going off for 16.

@justin
I like that lineup a lot. If KD could work on his ballhandling and penetration in traffic A LOT this summer, it could work. Same with JG, sliding to the 3.

Could we conceivably see a return of KD to the SG spot? Westbrook / Durant / Green / Lee / Ibaka. Now that's versatile. :)

Kev :

Greg :So if KD guards Kobe in that 4th quarter, rather than Thabo, we win the game, right?

Greg :So if KD guards Kobe in that 4th quarter, rather than Thabo, we win the game, right?

Thabo didnt even play in the fourth quarter . . .

EDIT - he came in for the last half-second . . .

Greg :So if KD guards Kobe in that 4th quarter, rather than Thabo, we win the game, right?

Greg :So if KD guards Kobe in that 4th quarter, rather than Thabo, we win the game, right?

Thabo didnt even play in the fourth quarter . . .

So if KD guards Kobe in that 4th quarter, rather than Thabo, we win the game, right?

Defensive Breakdown

The Thunder played well, they did better than expected this season, they took the Lakers to a competitive six games, they have a great future, blah, blah, blah. And it’s true that they had a good defensive game (+28 above average). But there were several defensive “IQ” mistakes. Correct any one of them and the Thunder wins. That will be the theme of this breakdown.

Kevin Durant (+11)

First, I have to comment on KD’s flawless performance on the defensive end. Kobe Bryant played thirty six minutes, and Thabo played only thirteen. KD guarded Kobe for the other twenty three minutes. He was excellent. Kobe scored on him, but KD didn’t give up penetration once (leading to a Laker score). Also, KD didn’t need any help. There was no double to free up shooters. Contrast that to what Kobe did against Thabo (see below). I said earlier this year (several times) that KD can’t guard twos. I was wrong. KD fought over picks very well, and his skinny frame allows him to do it with little difficulty. He also has better lateral movement than what he showed late last year (better conditioning and effort?) Whatever – I rescind my earlier comments. KD can play some two next year – on both ends.

Jeff Green (+6)

Green did well defensively, but here’s one of those boneheaded plays. It’s early in the 4th, and Green is checking benchwarmer Luke Walton. The ball is on the left. Walton sets a pick and drifts to the right corner. Green slid inside to protect the rim after the pick, but Collison was there after recovering. Green was guarding Bynum (Collison). He should have run right out to Walton. But he was confused, as he locked in on the ball on the left side. Lamar Odom hits a wide open Walton in the corner, and Walton drains the three.

Russell Westbrook (+6)

Again, Russell had a good game, but mental mistakes kill you against championship teams. Late in the third quarter, Odom (Durant) has the ball on the right wing. Fisher (Westbrook) is on the left wing. Odom fakes a shot and gets KD in the air. Odom moves left toward the lane, and he has a half step on KD. Westbrook is in proper position to cut off the lane. Artest is shut down and Russell hops back a step towards Fisher. So far, so good. But then Westbrook gets greedy and tries for a swipe. KD has Artest hemmed up – any pass from there would have been tough and the clock was under ten. But no, Westbrook darts back away from Fisher to take a swipe at the ball. He misses – Odom (who is a GREAT passer) kicks it out to Fisher for a three.

Earlier in the game, Russell had another key mistake. Fisher strips Green on a drive, and Kobe grabs the ball and takes off. Fisher and Russell are standing RIGHT NEXT to each other under the rim. Fisher takes off; Russell should have done the same. Instead, He watches Kobe and the Lakers run. Fisher gets a good 2-3 step head start. This is NOT acceptable in a closeout (or any) game. Fisher gets the go ahead pass from Fisher, and our guys are confused. Ibaka sprinted to close out on Fisher, but thanks to Westbrook, no one knows who is guarding who. This confusion allows Odom to get a nice pass on the dive from Fisher. Odom scores easily.

James Harden (+5)

Harden picked up two steals, one of which led to a nasty dunk! Still, the matchup issues (he cant guard Kobe) led to him receiving only thirteen minutes of time.

Serge Ibaka (+4)

Late in the first half, Lamar Odom (Ibaka) dribbles up the court. Kobe (KD) comes up to set a screen. Ibaka drifts backward and runs into Kobe. He points for KD to switch. This is dumb – if you have to leave Odom or Kobe open, I think Odom should be the choice. After the switch, Ibaka has to guard Kobe. Kobe puts a move on him, and draws a shooting foul in the lane.

Eric Maynor (+1)

Nenad Krstic (+1)

Nenad gave up three post baskets to Andrew Bynum, but he also got two stops, and he forced two turnovers down low.

Nick Collison (+1)

ABC analyst Jeff Van Gundy criticized Collison for not blocking out on the last possession when Gasol scored, but it was actually Jeff Green’s fault. Earlier in the possession, Green was in contact with Gasol on the weakside. He had a hand on Gasol. Everyone and their brother knew Kobe (Westbrook) was shooting. So Collison did the right thing and came over to help in case Kobe got past Westbrook. Green (the non rebounder) LEFT Gasol to drift up to the top. HUGE MISTAKE. Gasol (who grabbed eighteen boards) scored easily on the putback.

Thabo Sefolosha (-7)

Thabo gets his much needed break. He had a lousy series. Look at his scores

• Game 1: +3
• Game 2: +2
• Game 3: zero
• Game 4: +4
• Game 5: +2
• Game 6: -7

That an average of less than a point a game. That’s horrible for our “ace” on defense. Hopefully he gets healthy and refreshed over the summer.

Earlier, I mentioned that KD cut the lane off on Kobe. Meanwhile, in limited time, Thabo gave up penetration to Bryant twice. He also had a dumb defensive play. Early in the second half, Fisher comes off baseline off a screen to receive the ball on the right wing. Westbrook trails. Thabo is programmed to cut off the lane, and he does that. The problem is that he’s guarding KOBE BRYANT. Why help off one of the greatest players in the game to stop Derek Fisher???? Even if he doesn’t stop Fisher, we had all three of the frontcourt players near the lane to help. Fisher is old, but smart. After Thabo digs down, Fisher ships the ball out to Kobe for the three.

Did anyone else see the interview with Kobe at the end of the game when he commented on the Thunder being a team they'll have to deal with for years? It may have just been sportsmanship at the close of a series, but it still brought a smile to my face.

Thanks Royce! This site is my favorite.

Royce had some great updates last summer so I would expect nothing less. Especially when your constituents need you!

You think that Brooks will do what he did last summer and check up on the guys' progress over the summer? Probably, since Brooks is extremely consistent. Does Brooks have the chops for offensive strategy, does he include an offensive coach like he did Ron Adams for defense? What is Cheeks future hold? Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Sefalosha probably does, but I doubt he's traded after we extended him.

Do Sefalosha or Krstic have any sort of trade value? After all they were starters on a 50-win team

does anyone have a clip of the end of the game? i was at the Ford Center and didn't get to see the tv stuff.. i wanna hear that crowd again, wanna see KD's huddle, wanna see the exchange between KD and Kobe, and wanna hear what the ESPN crew says about us..

pau had ta do us like that

Much of our offseason will hinge on what's going to happen with Jeff Green and Serge Ibaka. If Sam Presti and Scott Brooks are dead set on Jeff Green at starting PF, then we'll probably look at defensive centers like Brendan Haywood.

Serge Ibaka is the big wild card though. Other than Westbrook, Ibaka is our only player who played better in the playoffs than the season. If the team thinks Ibaka is going to usurp Jeff Green's spot in the front court, then they will probably look for someone who can score a bit.

There's going to be a lot of talk after the season and we'll see who is available. We're set at the PG, SG, and SF positions with Russ, Maynor, Harden, Sefolosha, Durant, Green. Collison will probably be around, and Ibaka will be around. That leaves Krstic, who I think should be gone / benched. So one opening in the nine man rotation to replace Krstic. If the team decides Green isn't the starting PF, trading him might be in their best interest to get a front court upgrade.

Lots of options..

Have to get a big who can score in the post and rebound well, whether it be at the 4 or 5 position, and preferrably be a long-term solution. What's the short list of hopefuls on that one? Other than the two names thrown out the most such as Bosh and Lee, and even Haywood (he struggled down the stretch for the Mavs)

@Greg

I can't believe that Sam Presti will not use the cap space either to facilitate a trade or sign a free agent. We're so far below the cap, below the salary minimum. It'd be a slap in the face to the fans of the team if they went into next year with a payroll that low...

If we can't work a sign-and-trade with anyone, I really hope we can package our first-rounders and a second-rounder to move up into the backend of the lottery.

@Greg

Just think where Utah would be right now without Millsap and you've got your answer...

@justin
What's the point of hanging onto him if they extend Boozer who plays the exact same position? They could get good talent in return for Milsap.

IF we somehow landed Milsap, do you think a fron-line of he and Ibaka could work? Milsap seems like he could match the toughness and rebounding, except exceed that, of Collison. But a massive upgrade offensively, especially scoring in the post.