The Thunder were a unique team this year. Four players started all 88 games the team played in. The fifth guy only missed six games. For a full season, Oklahoma City had the most consistent, constant lineup of anyone in basketball.
And the big question going into the offseason is how it can get changed up. Kind of odd, isn’t it?
The thing is, one should expect it to change. James Harden wasn’t drafted to come off the bench for his career, though that might be a worthy role. Serge Ibaka made a push for more minutes and maybe a starting spot. Jeff Green’s place has been a topic of often discussion. But the rub is, do you mess with what worked? Do you tinker with a starting five that was so consistent, and oh yeah, surprised everyone by winning 50 games and pushing the defending champs and potentially eventual champs to six grueling games?
Darnell Mayberry asked the question earlier this week: Should Ibaka start next year? The obvious assumption is that Ibaka would replace Nenad Krstic in the five first, meaning Ibaka would play center. I think everyone would agree – Ibaka needs more minutes. If he showed anything this past season and especially in the postseason, it’s that he’s ready to affect games in a positive way for the Thunder.
And while the are gripes to be had with Krstic, is Ibaka really the answer there for the next 82, assuming OKC doesn’t find a snap replacement? Let’s step aside and let those pesky advanced metrics do some talking.
The Thunder’s top overall adjusted five-man unit last season according to Basketball Value was Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Ibaka and Nick Collison. The second was Westbrook, Durant, Jeff Green, Ibaka and Collison. The third, Eric Maynor, James Harden, Durant, Ibaka, Collison. The theme here? Ibaka and Collison pairing at the four and five was successful last season, at least in terms of the often wonky plus/minus stat.
What about lineups in which Ibaka manned the center position? Two lineups where Ibaka played the five had OKC well in the negative. The only one that didn’t only had a handful of minutes to use, but OKC was a +13 with Westbrook, Harden, Sefolosha, Durant and Ibaka. Interesting.
For now, I don’t think Ibaka is starting material at the five. The numbers suggest he played well at one position, which happens to be the one he wouldn’t be starting in. Of course I don’t advocate to go entirely off of numbers, especially plus/minus. It’s often a poor indicator. I’m just basing this off of how Ibaka plays and where he fit better during the season. Now, it’s a whole other can of worms to make the case that Ibaka should start at power forward. Meaning of course, Jeff Green would be pushed to the bench. But I’m not going to go there right now, lest I have 4,000 words forthcoming.
Harden on the other hand, has a spot to step into that’s clear, and may have proved his worth there. His rookie numbers don’t blow anyone away: 9.9 ppg, 1.8 apg 40.3 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from 3 in 22.9 minutes a game. Flesh those out to per 36 and he’s sitting at around 16.5 ppg. I’ve already written about how his percentages are sure to go up once he starts finishing around the rim and any time you give a rookie a summer to decompress and reflect, he’s going to improve. (See: Westbrook, Russell) Thabo is a defensive ace and that’s where he warrants his minutes from. But with the improvement of Kevin Durant defensively and the progression of Westbrook as a versatile defender, Thabo’s role may be able to be downgraded a bit.
Oklahoma City struggled at times on the offensive end, not necessarily the defensive one. The Thunder lost a handful of games in the fourth quarter not because they couldn’t get stops, but because they couldn’t score. I would expect Harden’s production to go up and for Thabo’s to level off a bit. Not to say Thabo isn’t as important as ever – he is. But with Harden’s steady improvement on both the offensive and defensive end, if there’s anywhere to alter the starting five, this might be it. But that will be settled this summer and during camp in the fall. Harden will have to earn that. Scott Brooks won’t just hand it to him simply because of where he was drafted. That’s not how it works in this organization.
Ibaka on the other hand, is a player that prefers to roam and make his impact defensively by seeming like he’s everywhere. Centers don’t typically get to do that. Their primary job is to defend the other team’s post scoring threat. Lean on him, push on him and box out when a shot goes up. Ibaka doesn’t like doing that. He can be a starting five at some point, because with Ibaka, I think he’s honestly capable of just about anything. He has so much ability wrapped up in that 6’11 frame that it’s frankly a little terrifying. But as for taking over that role next year, I’m not so sure he’s ready.
I think a starting line up of Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Ibaka and Krstic(David Lee, please) and a bench of Maynor, Sefalosha, Green and Collison. You switch offense for defense with Harden/Sefalosha and defense for offense with Ibaka/Green. I think that this 9 man rotation is really solid. If we actually got Lee, I'd be jumping up and down. But even with Krstic out there, we've got a really solid offense/defense unit and bring in the bench with Durant and you don't have any really big drop offs and Green is your top offensive sixth man. Both units are good defensively and you probably lose a couple points in the starting lineup, but gain even more points in the second unit. Put Green out there to score and be a threat, give Harden some more offensive opportunities and have Sefolosha shut down opposing 6th men, who seem to be more wing players than posts (though not all). But, if we signed David Lee, we increase our starting unit rebounding and point total, while bringing more points in off the bench with Green.
The best PF defenders overall include Garnett, Odom and Duncan.
It does appear that even these guys have few "total shut down" victories over the best PFs on offense. That is a very high standard. Garnett is probably the best though.
Collison has real strong stats at PF this season but in limited minutes and his PF defense wasn't this good in previous years so I do take those stats with a few grains of salt.
Ibaka and Amir Johnson are a few of the young guys who are above average at PF defense.
Bryan :I don’t think Ibaka should start yet either. Yeah he needs more minutes, so give them to him but don’t start him. We need to groom him, confidence is huge. If you shatter a players confidence it can be all down hill from there. Keep him as a spark off the bench but just up his minutes
I don't think confidence will ever be an issue with Ibaka. He's not scared of much of anything. Plus nobody he's having a lot of success.
I don't think Ibaka should start yet either. Yeah he needs more minutes, so give them to him but don't start him. We need to groom him, confidence is huge. If you shatter a players confidence it can be all down hill from there. Keep him as a spark off the bench but just up his minutes
It depends. Is he the same player now he was the first two months of the season? That skews the statistics. Did he get a good sample size at center? That also skews the statistics. That's why I asked
@James
Are you saying Serge's performance at C compared with his performance at PF for the season doesn't indicate his effectiveness at those positions? Might as well throw out all statistics then...
justin :@James
Highlights are nice, but they are just highlights. I can show you highlights of Adam Morrison that would make you think he is a player.
http://www.82games.com/0910/09OKC13.HTM
Check out Serge’s effectiveness at PF then his effectiveness at C. Note the production differentials. Note the team’s performance when he is at PF and when he is at C. We’re a losing team with him at C, a winning team when he’s at PF.
How many minutes did he play at center compared to PF? He also was a much different player towards the end of the year than he was at the start of the year so I'm not sure how much those stats indicate his effectiveness at each position.
When I looked at Philly I used 34% on 3pt FG% to define a decent 3pt shooter. If you use that with the Thunder the lineups which are positive on Adjusted +/- and were used over 50 minutes for the season averaged about 2 such players on the court, the average for the negative lineups was just about 1. Green was just under 34% and if you include him both sets change by about as much and there is still a gap in number of good 3 pt shooters and that gap may affect the defense and contribute to the lineups with two good 3 point shooters on average being positive while nearly all of those that didn't have that were negative.
They have the picks to be able to get a traditional game PF and a traditional sized center to add to the depth mix and future options. They should take both.
If they move Green they will end up needing a "modern PF" in the mix but that could part of Durant's future job or a new guy who is better or not worse and cheaper.
I am beginning to study if team offense is better with three 3 pt shooters on the court instead of just 2. It appeared to be the case for Philly. If Westbrook recovers his ability to hit that shot it changes thinking about lineups /rotations and needs at PF some compared to if he can't.
What makes this whole post funny is the idea that we're just talking about players that are currently on our team, almost everyone agrees that we need to draft, sign, and/or trade for another post player whether it's a legit center or pf doesn't really matter, most people just say we need another post of some kind. Adding such a player especially through signing or trading would most likely indicate a new starter. A drafted player might take slightly longer to develop, but would still be anew player in the rotation. Plus who knows maybe Mullens will develop this off-season like Ibaka did last season???
And I agree with Paul, the pairing of PF and C matter more than if Serge starts at C or PF. Green / Ibaka is just asking for trouble on defense and on the boards.
I think Ibaka's already near his ideal weight. He's probably 238 to 240 pounds now, I wouldn't want him over 250. His speed and mobility are a serious advantage.
@ThunderHorn
It will also cure cancer and bring about the second coming of Jesus.
@James
Highlights are nice, but they are just highlights. I can show you highlights of Adam Morrison that would make you think he is a player.
http://www.82games.com/0910/09OKC13.HTM
Check out Serge's effectiveness at PF then his effectiveness at C. Note the production differentials. Note the team's performance when he is at PF and when he is at C. We're a losing team with him at C, a winning team when he's at PF.
@James
There is a huge difference between blocking a player and being able to defend the player for a whole game. Not to mention you list 2 players there, Ibaka will only get to guard one of them at a time, so who are you matching against the other. If it is Green, he'll get over matched regardless of his effort his size. If you put Kristic or Collison on one you're a little more well matched up. This is more proving the point we need another big center or additional huge PF than any point about Ibaka's capability to guard one person.
Paul :@DXLBut you also said that he gained lbs this year and still has weight to gain on those guys, won’t those guys gain the same type of NBA strength that he was gaining this year?? Almost every player that joins the league starts getting stronger and fills out more, so if Ibaka is currently behind players that are going to fill out even more???
He's as young or younger than those guys too. Ibaka will continue to get bigger.
Anonymous :Thats exactly what i’m saying, at some point he might be better starting but not now.Just my opinion.I just don,t understand why so many people are so ready to give up on JG at the old age of 23,after a 50 win season.I like Ibka also.We need pieces not an overhaul.
because trading Jeff Green would give us an NBA title and would bring peace to the Middle East, as well as cure world hunger.
@Keith
I'm not sure how it could hurt us, it doesn't seem like we're really going to sign some big name FA as is, and if we have the potential to gain a big player who has had some success already when given minutes I don't see how giving up nothing hurts. Plus as you mentioned it would free up Green to make additional moves that we might not have had the luxury of making. Which if we also did something like a Dalembert trade our post goes from being undersized to having lots of big bodies to throw around, and all for what doesn't seem like it'll be a ton of actual value other than the loss of cap space we're not assured to use anyway.
justin :@James
Ibaka on Stoudemire illustrates Ibaka’s effectiveness at PF more than anything. Ibaka got abused plenty in the post this season. You didn’t see as much of it as Krstic because Ibaka came off the bench and played against subs. Krstic and Collison are better defenders against traditional post players, they get better position than Ibaka, and generally know where to be on defense. I’m not understanding how Serge’s effectiveness against Amar’e Stoudemire means anything about him starting at C because, as you said, Amar’e is hardly a center. Serge had some good games but overall struggled when he was the lone big guy on the court with Green and Durant.
If Ibaka starts it should be at PF with another big. Collison / Ibaka, Krstic / Ibaka. Both are better than Ibaka / Green, which would get trounced on the boards because neither of those guys box out, and they’re not a strong defensive pairing either.
Did you see the highlights I posted of Serge against Gasol and Bynum earlier in the year swatting their shots in one on ones? Those guys are 5's as much as anyone in the league.
@DXL
But you also said that he gained lbs this year and still has weight to gain on those guys, won't those guys gain the same type of NBA strength that he was gaining this year?? Almost every player that joins the league starts getting stronger and fills out more, so if Ibaka is currently behind players that are going to fill out even more???
@James
Ibaka on Stoudemire illustrates Ibaka's effectiveness at PF more than anything. Ibaka got abused plenty in the post this season. You didn't see as much of it as Krstic because Ibaka came off the bench and played against subs. Krstic and Collison are better defenders against traditional post players, they get better position than Ibaka, and generally know where to be on defense. I'm not understanding how Serge's effectiveness against Amar'e Stoudemire means anything about him starting at C because, as you said, Amar'e is hardly a center. Serge had some good games but overall struggled when he was the lone big guy on the court with Green and Durant.
If Ibaka starts it should be at PF with another big. Collison / Ibaka, Krstic / Ibaka. Both are better than Ibaka / Green, which would get trounced on the boards because neither of those guys box out, and they're not a strong defensive pairing either.
@Paul
Ibaka was 228 pounds in 2008, and we all saw he scrawny he was then compared to now. He must be at least 10 pounds heavier now. This means he weighs more than Aldrich (236) and Udoh (237).
He's not taking any bench press tests anytime soon, so we'll never know, but I believe Ibaka is stronger than everyone in this draft besides Cousins and Pittman.
Keith :@JamesJust so I’m clear on this, are you advocating Ibaka at the 5 simply because you think he’s our best option there, or because you really think the 5 is his position?
I think 4 is his natural position right now but where he goes depends on our roster. If the team can't find/afford a better option I think he could develop into one of the better centers in the league. I see him as our best option with the current roster.
DXL :Josh Smith measured 6′8.25″ in shoes, with a 8′10.5″ standing reach. Ibaka, at Reebok Eurocamp in 2008, measured 6′10.25″ in shoes with a 9′3″ standing reach. That’s a big difference and why Smith could never play center, while Ibaka can sometimes man the center position.
Ibaka obviously isn’t a monster for the center position, he’s probably 6′9″ w/o shoes, but his measurements compare very favorably with many of the centers in this year’s draft:
Cole Aldrich, 6′9″ w/o shoes, 9′3.5″ standing reachDaniel Orton, 6′8.75″ w/o shoes, 9′2.5″ standing reachEpke Udoh, 6′8.75 w/o shoes, 8′10.5″ standing reachGreg Monroe, 6′9.75″ w/o shoes, 9′0.5″ standing reachDerrick Favors, 6′8.75″ w/o shoes, 9′2″ standing reach
If you really believe Ibaka doesn’t have the size and length to be a center then these guys aren’t centers either! Ibaka, when he guards guys like Bynum and Gasol, already looks the part. After he gains just 5 to 10 pounds of muscle he’ll be perfectly fine at center.
Good post
@DXL
Ibaka needs to add a lot of weight to be a legit center. He also needs to get a lot better with his defensive awareness (should definitely happen with a full offseason) and boxing out (hopefully improves but he may rely too much on his athleticism.
@Paul
I know, it sounds like a no-lose situation. I just still have to wonder how effective he would be given our roster, and if his contract would somehow preclude us from landing a FA or trade that we want. In theory, his presence could open the door for trading Green, or at least give Presti more leverage in future contract negotiations. I would just want to see that trade as a stepping stone to another trade, since Beasley isn't going to bring much of anything to the table we don't already have.
justin :@James
Collison and Krstic weren’t the only ones getting rebounded over. As a matter of fact, Krstic’s TRB% in the Laker series was better than Serge and Collison. He was only marginally worse than Serge at collecting defensive rebounds. The Thunder gave up a lot of rebounds with Krstic on the floor mainly because Jeff Green can’t box out and one of Bynum or Gasol (or Odom) was available to get a rebound).
Serge is a good player but I think you’re overrating his effectiveness a bit. He was a great defensive presence in the Laker series because of his help defense, weak side shot blocking, etc.
I know Krstic and Collison weren't the only ones getting rebounded over but those are the other options for center at the this point and it was obvious. Ibaka just matched up better physically and athletically with them both. I don't know if you remember the last Pheonix game when Stoudamire took over late in the game but that was another great example of the difference between Collison and Ibaka. Stoudamire abused Collison the entire time he was in and didn't do much at all against Ibaka (and didn't try after he got stopped a few times). We actually had the lead late in the game and Collison came in for Ibaka. Stoudamire scored like 8 straight points after that and we ended up losing. I know Stoudamire isn't a center but that is one glaring example of Ibaka being a much better one on one defender. There are numerous others.
@DXL
You're also forgetting a little thing about the weight differences and strength differences. Just because someone is tall doesn't mean much, Look at KD for example he's tall enough to play down in the post, but that doesn't mean we want him down there. It's not just about size and length. Plus If you put Ibaka next to any of those guys on that list that you measured how much taller and longer is our front court. Why should we limit it to just 1 or the other, having Ibaka at 4 and a player like that at center makes the whole team better.
@DXL
It's more than size and length. Ibaka's game is just more suited to PF. I think he could be a de-facto center next to another big guy, like when he plays with Nick Collison, but putting him at center next to someone like Jeff Green isn't going to work IMO.
@Keith
I don't see how it could hurt for a 2nd round pick though? Beasley has tons of potential, he just doesn't seem to be consistent, and he's a legit 6'10" player who has a face-up and back to the basket game. His stats in the NBA really aren't bad and for the price it doesn't seem like it'd be anything at all for the potential it COULD bring. He might not be a great defensive player but I'm sure he can be taught to improve it a little. For the value of that would be sweet I think. But yes I think they wanted the money, plus adding Beasley's contract to NJ hurts NJ's FA space this summer. But who knows, I'd give up DJ White or a 2nd round pick or things like that for a former #2 pick.
Josh Smith measured 6'8.25" in shoes, with a 8'10.5" standing reach. Ibaka, at Reebok Eurocamp in 2008, measured 6'10.25" in shoes with a 9'3" standing reach. That's a big difference and why Smith could never play center, while Ibaka can sometimes man the center position.
Ibaka obviously isn't a monster for the center position, he's probably 6'9" w/o shoes, but his measurements compare very favorably with many of the centers in this year's draft:
Cole Aldrich, 6'9" w/o shoes, 9'3.5" standing reach
Daniel Orton, 6'8.75" w/o shoes, 9'2.5" standing reach
Epke Udoh, 6'8.75 w/o shoes, 8'10.5" standing reach
Greg Monroe, 6'9.75" w/o shoes, 9'0.5" standing reach
Derrick Favors, 6'8.75" w/o shoes, 9'2" standing reach
If you really believe Ibaka doesn't have the size and length to be a center then these guys aren't centers either! Ibaka, when he guards guys like Bynum and Gasol, already looks the part. After he gains just 5 to 10 pounds of muscle he'll be perfectly fine at center.
@James
I think you're last sentence pretty much sums it up. :)
As early as 2008 the Ibaka-KG comparisons were being made and even before the season started Ibaka listed KG as the type of player he wanted to be like.
@James
I gave a descriptive summary of the biggest difference of Ibaka at PF and C yesterday but if you want to see numbers you can look at estimates based on guesses at which position was played largely based on size here http://www.82games.com/0910/09OKC13.HTM#bypos
or I assume you can see by position data based off video evidence at Synergy if you want to pay for it.
@James
Collison and Krstic weren't the only ones getting rebounded over. As a matter of fact, Krstic's TRB% in the Laker series was better than Serge and Collison. He was only marginally worse than Serge at collecting defensive rebounds. The Thunder gave up a lot of rebounds with Krstic on the floor mainly because Jeff Green can't box out and one of Bynum or Gasol (or Odom) was available to get a rebound).
Serge is a good player but I think you're overrating his effectiveness a bit. He was a great defensive presence in the Laker series because of his help defense, weak side shot blocking, etc.
@James
Just so I'm clear on this, are you advocating Ibaka at the 5 simply because you think he's our best option there, or because you really think the 5 is his position?
Paul :@JamesAssuming Ibaka does play center, it still doesn’t solve the problem of having an undersized 4 then? How would you fix that? And if you don’t think Green or Collison is typically undersized than explain how matching up against 2 7fts with them isn’t being undersized. The answer for the Thunder isn’t just getting to the playoffs anymore, it is winning in the playoffs and that means being able to match-up with teams like the Lakers, Houston, Dallas, Utah, all of whom throw out lots of post players of different types and sizes and talent levels. And if you say drafting a 4 to play along side Ibaka, why not just draft a 5 since we already have tons of 4s.
I still think getting a banger at center would be our best option. I'm talking strictly if our roster stays like it is.
justin :@James
Nobody said Collison is a center, but Collison and maybe even Krstic are more consistent one on one defenders than Ibaka right now. At PF, though, Ibaka is our best overall defender.
That is just wrong. Did you watch the Lakers series at all? Did you see Collison and Krstic get rebounded over repeatedly while Bynum and Gasol stood flat footed with their arms up over them. Ibaka bothered Bynum and Gasol repeatedly when he guarded them.
@Paul
Obviously they wanted Dooling since his contract wasn't guaranteed. Think it would do us any good to offer a 2nd round pick? Miami gets to drop Beasley's full contract and could probably even turn around and sell the 2nd rounder. The question is if Beasley has any value to our team. I'm inclined not to think so, given he doesn't really have a set position that he excels at, and we already have that 3, 3/4, 4 rotation filled.
Lee has played the game like most NBA players- for the points and the money that comes with points.
If he could hit a decent of 3s that might be somewhat useful, especially in NY. Better defense would mean more but I'd assume he is also working on strength, quickness and explosiveness. Whether he is studying a lot tape to improve his defense or ever has done so vigorously I don't know. Probably not. Obviously he could benefit from doing more.
@James
Assuming Ibaka does play center, it still doesn't solve the problem of having an undersized 4 then? How would you fix that? And if you don't think Green or Collison is typically undersized than explain how matching up against 2 7fts with them isn't being undersized. The answer for the Thunder isn't just getting to the playoffs anymore, it is winning in the playoffs and that means being able to match-up with teams like the Lakers, Houston, Dallas, Utah, all of whom throw out lots of post players of different types and sizes and talent levels. And if you say drafting a 4 to play along side Ibaka, why not just draft a 5 since we already have tons of 4s.
J.G. :@James Just to clarify, Serge has actually referenced Kevin Garnett as the type of player he’d like to pattern his game after way before just 10 months ago. The notion that Ibaka “just figured out” who NBA players were on his first year in the NBA is incredibly false.
That being said, Paul makes a good point about the best option right now does mean it is the best option for the future, as a player or for the team. Maximizing Ibaka’s talent is what will be best for him and the team, and that is putting him in the best position to succeed based on his style of play and strengths.
The Thunder announcers referenced several times this year (particularly early in the season) that Ibaka didn't have any idea who he was going against because he didn't watch much NBA basketball and that may have helped him not to be intimidated. Maybe they didn't know.
Keith :@JamesActually, Smith is a terrible perimeter player, he just happens to love shooting threes. His entire game is designed for playing in the post. He excels offensively when he stays close to the basket, either finishing on drives or making close shots over his defender. His defense is also suited to the post. His best attribute is timing, which allows for a lot of block on driving or posting up opponents. He uses his strength and footwork on defense much more than speed or agility, which also lends itself to guarding big guys in the post rather than speedy guys on the perimeter.
I agree with that but he is a much better ball handler than Ibaka (like Green) and is more fluid out on the perimeter and less comfortable looking in the middle of all the bigs IMO. It is the other way around with Ibaka.
Does anybody else find this story amusing?
According to ESPN Radio's "NBA Today" podcast, the Heat offered Michael Beasley to the Nets for Keyon Dooling but were turned down by Nets GM Rod Thorn.
Beasley has raised a few red flags during his brief stint in the NBA, but we're not sure why Thorn would turn down such an offer (assuming there is anything to this report). Dooling's contract is unguaranteed next season, but Beasley is only owed $4.9 million in 2010-11, followed by a team option in 2011-12 and restricted free agency the following year.
Keith :@JamesA willingness to work hard doesn’t immediately change who he is. Ben Wallace was one of the hardest working players in history and he never figured out how to shoot a free throw. Penciling Ibaka into a spot that he has shown no aptitude for to this point, next to a PF who doesn’t play PF well, is not a winning formula.
How many minutes did he play at center compared to PF and how different were his stats? I keep hearing but I'd be curious to see the actual stats.
@James
Actually, Smith is a terrible perimeter player, he just happens to love shooting threes. His entire game is designed for playing in the post. He excels offensively when he stays close to the basket, either finishing on drives or making close shots over his defender. His defense is also suited to the post. His best attribute is timing, which allows for a lot of block on driving or posting up opponents. He uses his strength and footwork on defense much more than speed or agility, which also lends itself to guarding big guys in the post rather than speedy guys on the perimeter.
@James
Just to clarify, Serge has actually referenced Kevin Garnett as the type of player he'd like to pattern his game after way before just 10 months ago. The notion that Ibaka "just figured out" who NBA players were on his first year in the NBA is incredibly false.
That being said, Paul makes a good point about the best option right now does mean it is the best option for the future, as a player or for the team. Maximizing Ibaka's talent is what will be best for him and the team, and that is putting him in the best position to succeed based on his style of play and strengths.
@James
Nobody said Collison is a center, but Collison and maybe even Krstic are more consistent one on one defenders than Ibaka right now. At PF, though, Ibaka is our best overall defender.
Keith :@JamesIbaka’s high impact defense is predicated a lot on being able to rotate from the weakside or roam and attack. At the center position, he wouldn’t be able to roam, and more often than not he would be stuck in place down low, limiting his ability to block from off the ball. Dwight Howard gets a ton of blocks because the defense is designed to funnel guys to him. Our defense is designed to contest at the rim but not force players into any specific player.
Think about Josh Smith. His game and physical attributes lend himself to being a PF, just like Ibaka. He is a terror as a weakside defender precisely because it frees his defensive area to attack anybody. You wouldn’t put Smith at C and Marvin Williams (Green) at PF. Obviously Atlanta has an advantage in Horford, but that doesn’t mean we should limit ourselves in personnel from the get-go. Ibaka is not a C right now. Maybe he can develop into one down the line, but he has seen very few minutes there and didn’t fair well in those minutes.
Josh Smith is a perimeter player playing in the low post. I would compare him more to a more physical, longer Green than Ibaka.
I'd expect minutes by season's end to go pretty darn close to how Charles shows them. Green probably starts out 5 higher, Ibaka 5 lower. Same with Thabo and Harden respectively. But it will probably shift towards Charles' numbers unless Ibaka and Harden stall out short of expectations.
Ibaka at center in general vs Ibaka at center with a specific partner at PF are different questions and the latter seems more helpful to me. Ibaka-Green was either the worst of 6 possible pairings out of Ibaka, Green, Collison and Krstic or the 2nd worst. Things could change and if they do, use that new information.
@James
A willingness to work hard doesn't immediately change who he is. Ben Wallace was one of the hardest working players in history and he never figured out how to shoot a free throw. Penciling Ibaka into a spot that he has shown no aptitude for to this point, next to a PF who doesn't play PF well, is not a winning formula.
@J.G.
Also I think it should be stated that While Ibaka might be one of the better post presence in the low post, it doesn't mean he should be there, rather it indicates more to the fact that this is a spot the Thunder need to improve and get someone who can play that position. The Lakers and the Celtics aren't good simply because they have Bynum or Pau or KG or Perkins it's because they have both an Offensive PF and a HUGE Defensive Center. So if Ibaka is our KG we need our Perkins.