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Trading Up

by J.G. Marking on June 21, 2010 at 3:23 pm 107 Comments

So the rumors are starting to fly (per Chad Ford) now that every team outside of the Top 4 (Wizards, Sixers, Nets and T-Wolves) are interested and open to trading down in this draft (with the Pacers, Bulls and Hornets open to trading OUT of the draft altogether), which means picks 5-14 in the lottery are potentially up for grabs and an option if said team that’s trying to trade up has enough assets (cap space, players, picks, charming good looks) to get a deal done.

And guess which team Ford lists as one of the five most likely to make a trade…that’s right, your Oklahoma City Thunder.

But in a draft where the Top 9-10 players are easily head and shoulders above the rest, is there really value in moving up from #21 to any spot in the lottery that’s not a Top 10 pick? Would the Thunder be better off just standing pat and selecting the best player available at #21 or selecting a player who would fill a need at #21 instead of giving up solid assets for a minor bump in potential production?

We’ve all speculated for the last, oh, two months and some odd weeks about where the Thunder could move up to given their assets and who they should pick at said spot, but with the draft a mere three days (THREE DAYS, PEOPLE) away, it’s time to put your money where your mouth is.

I’m going to throw out three scenarios in which the Thunder trade up and acquire the 5th pick, 8th pick and 11th pick (two of those being trades I can actually see happening, whereas the Kings moving the 5th pick is, well, a bit of an impossible dream—though the Dalembert trade certainly opens that possibility up a bit especially after reports from Cousins camp came out that he’d prefer to slide to Detroit and is not the biggest fan of Sac-town, per DraftExpress).

So to get us going, I’m going to put my picks out there first and I bet a few of them surprise you…as they certainly surprised me!

5th Pick – Thunder send cap space, their two first round picks, their promised first born and at least one player of SIGNIFICANT value to the Kings (it would probably be someone who can play the 3, defend the perimeter and slash—two people come to mind, so pick one so I don’t have to!) for the fifth overall selection

The Thunder select…

DeMarcus Cousins, C, University of Kentucky

Oh, yes I just did!

When it comes down to it, I just don’t think if you’re the Thunder and you find yourself with the opportunity to select the most dominant and productive big man the NCAA has seen since one of the best centers to ever play in the SEC (that would be His Shaqness) dominated the college landscape and the only reason you have to give pause is because he’s immature and would need a terrific support system and organization to help him flourish and develop—that you pass him up when that is exactly what your organization does best.

We always talk about the Thunder having a family atmosphere and being some of the most supportive yet wonderfully self-accountable teams in the NBA. Doesn’t that mean that they, more than any other organization, has the built-in infrastructure to not only “handle” Cousins but actually encourage and even inspire him to not only mature as a basketball superstar, but as a person?

I say you go for Cousins here, roll the dice, and set yourself up for the chance to win CHAMPIONSHIPS, yes, plural.

Downside — Cousins is the next Zach Randolph before his Grizzlies turnaround (though a pending investigation means I might just need to say Randolph in general) and ruins everything Presti and Co. built over the past 3 seasons…you know, no biggie.

10th Pick – Thunder send cap space, their first two picks, a solid rotation wing player (lots of options here) and a nice backup big (think DJ White—or better, kind of depends on how badly the Pacers want to trade down) for the 10th overall pick

The Thunder select…Ed Davis, PF/C, North Carolina

That’s right, you can add the “/C” after PF for Ed Davis. Apparently after his workouts, measurements and play style, most NBA GM’s and Scouts are rumored to believe that while Davis has the athleticism to be a PF at the next level the growing consensus is that he’s actually more suited to playing center with the right frontcourt mate at his side (he’ll have to put on more mass and develop offensively either way).

Check his #’s from college and if you ever saw the way he played, you can start to understand their line of thinking. 12.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in 26.9 minutes with no real mid-range game and a knack for getting his points in and around the basket or on the break using his above-average athleticism.

Doesn’t that sound like the type of 5 the center could pair with Serge Ibaka at the 4 eventually? Or vice versa.

Now Davis is a little undersized in terms of standing reach to play center (9’0 standing reach; you’d really like at least 9’2) but his athleticism, timing and knack for blocking shots and rebounding more than make up for that IF he can add the muscle he is expected to at the next level since he has the frame to be able to body people down low.

I know Aldrich is the safe choice here but, I’m sorry, if I’m giving up picks, cap space and guys I’ve groomed in my system for some years, I’m swinging for the fences on a potential All-Star candidate instead of a solid rotation guy.

And Ed Davis has that type of potential at either spot down low.

Downside — Hey, look! Another PF/C tweener who can’t beat out Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison…

11th Pick — Pretty much the same stuff they’d have to give up to get to 10th, give or take a backup role player or size of the cap space hit. The Hornets seem VERY likely to move this pick so this is probably the most realistic trading partner.

The Thunder select…Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside…you tell me!

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SS
SS 5pts

Trade up for pick 6 if Cousins or Monroe are still one the board. Trade cash, pick 21 & 26. As well as your 1st round next year. You will still have a valuable pick at 32 with the draft this year being incredibly deep. And you will have a potential beast at center with Cousins or Monroe.

jdstorm
jdstorm 5pts

With all this talk about trading with the Hornets who do you think says no to this trade

New Orleans send Collison, posey, Peja and pick 11 to OKC for Eric Maynor, Kristic and a second round pick or 2

Bronson
Bronson 5pts

Im with Paul on the acquiring of a shooter like JJ or Miller. I say Monroe would be a decent possibility without giving up too much of the great team presti is building

DXL
DXL 5pts

@justin
There's actually about as much footage of Pleiss as there is of Seraphin, though perhaps not as easily accessible on youtube, and not all of it free. I've seen enough to know that he's a legit 7-footer with a good wingspan (his body looks comparable to Mullens) and he has good mobility for his size.

Here are the positive facts I've found out about Pleiss:

1) His body's been filling out. He's currently at 116 to 117 kilos, or 257 to 259 pounds. He'd like to gain 3 or 4 more kilos of muscle mass, or 6 to 8 pounds, but no more than that. He put on too much weight too quickly in the past and that led to a stress fracture in the foot. He's obviously got to continue gaining strength but at 7 foot, 257 pounds he's near ideal size for an NBA center.

2) He had an excellent performance at the Eurocup 2010 competition. His team went to the round of 16 and he was #1 in rebounds per minute played, #3 in blocks per minute played, and #7 in free throws made per minute played. The Eurocup isn't a bunch of no-name cupcakes--there are many strong players who have been drafted or will be drafted in the first round by the NBA. He outplayed Donatas Motiejunas in head-to-head competition, and his stats were better or comparable to fine players like Seraphin, Victor Claver, Nemanja Bjelica and Kosta Perovic.

3) Dirk Bauermann, head coach of the German national team, calls to check up on Pleiss weekly. He comes to Bamberg to train Pleiss because the kid, along with Robin Benzing and Elias Harris, is the future of the German national team.

4) Pleiss earned a starting position in his first year with Bamberg (very few young European players start), was rookie of the year, and his team won the German league championship. His minutes and play improved throughout the year--he was a league leader in rebounds per minute, blocks per minute, free throws made per minute, and 2-point shooting percentage. His coach praised him highly for anchoring their defense.

5) Don't discount his excellent European stats in limited minutes. Young players in Europe very rarely get extended minutes, but the minutes they earn, especially if they're on a good team, are meaningful. Pleiss' stats compare favorably with Andrea Bargnani at the same age. (Pleiss is obviously a very different player, more focussed on defense and rebounding).

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

I doubt that is breaking news to Presti. Perhaps Orton will slip into the second round.

Paul
Paul 5pts

I'd just like to point out that other entries in the draft, when surveyed by Chad Ford listed Orton as the most over-hyped player in the draft. I'm not sure that's something you really want coming out a few days before the draft, especially when it is given by peers and ones you've been playing or competing with.

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

Internal family drama is keeping Orton from getting an agent? And we want him to be playing and living near that family?

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AlE7.D9hlwBP2xOgKUmmbkC8vLYF?slug=aw-draftbuzz062210
He had knee issues during the predraft process.

J.G.
J.G. 5pts

@shiki=4 seasons
Any link for this?

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

@DizzyDai
There is bad news for Orton from yahoo,I dont know how do Presti and other GMs think about the injure of him.

Dustin
Dustin 5pts

@Mark!
Crazy how these players lose value so quick....just last year flynn was the #6 pick.

T'wolves really f'ed up those back to back picks.

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

I believe everyone agrees, trading down would only be worthwile for Cousins or Monroe.

I'd be interested in Udoh as long as no key* Thunder players were invloved in the trade. *Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Green, Maynor, Collison, Thabo, and possibly Mullens (stop laughing).

Aldrich seems like a rotation center. Pass.

Orton would be decent at 21, but not worth moving picks or players for a higher draft position.

I really don't have an opinion on Whiteside.

Would anyone move up to secure Alabi or Sanders?

Vega
Vega 5pts

@Keith
His rebounding does indeed look abnormally low for a guy as huge as he is.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Vega
Hibbert is all size, no substance. His offense is weak, his rebounding is poor, and he's not athletic. Not to mention he is a fouling machine. Pass.

Vega
Vega 5pts

@Mark!
I'd love to get Hibbert somehow, although that is probably impossible.

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@shiki=4 seasons

I dunno. What I've seen is Minny turned down #10 + fodder for Flynn. This trade w/ #16 + #23 + Flynn for #10 + fodder is a newer rumor.

Might represent a counter by Kahn. "Fodder" in this case might be a higher value player like Hibbert.

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

@Mark!
He is wrong,Pacers want to trade Johnny Flynn + #16 + #23 ,but Kahn refused them quickly

Paul
Paul 5pts

@shiki=4 seasons
I'm not saying trading him 1 for 1 and who wouldn't trade a player 1 on 1 to get a star big man??

I was saying that if Thabo has value anywhere close to Green or Harden's (Not saying I think he has equal value) then in a package it would seem to make much more sense to part with him than either Green or Harden since they would have "more" valuable roles on the team.

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

Thabo has a small contract,it is difficulty to trade him 1 on 1 to get valuable players.
If we can get a star big man,trade him

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

duff :
im not sure if i want crazy cousins or not……..but i dont wanna see jeff green go i think he is very valuable to the team if not the most important

You think Green is more important than Westbrook? Or Durant?

Are you Jeff Green's grandmother?

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

Per Adrian Wojnarowski (great journalist):

Minnesota offering Johnny Flynn + #16 + #23 to Indiana for a package that includes #10

duff
duff 5pts

im not sure if i want crazy cousins or not........but i dont wanna see jeff green go i think he is very valuable to the team if not the most important

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Paul
If trading him could land a true big man with high skill, I'd trade him in a heartbeat. As it is, he probably retains the starting spot for a little while longer, so his utility to us is likely higher than his trade value.

Paul
Paul 5pts

While I'm not necessarily advocating doing this, what do people think Thabo's value would be on the trade market??

The reason I ask is this... IF Harden were to take over the starting SG spot like so many of you say, then Thabo as a defensive stopper isn't as important since he'd most likely be playing against the other team's bench unless there is foul trouble (something that can't really be counted on). Under these circumstances it would seem to make more sense to have someone who could score or possibly score and defend. IF then Thabo could net something to help in the acquiring of a big man instead of Green or Harden then it would seem easier to acquire the likes of Reddick, Mike Miller, Korver, etc, or have a spot filled by one of the draft picks.

What are people's thoughts on this?

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

@Mark!

Ha. I just seen Collison and assumed you forgot to subtract him from OKC's roster. Sounds great to me.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@dream catcher
While I'm not going to be heartbroken if we don't trade up, I hope we do. Just adds to the excitement of an otherwise normal Thursday.

dream catcher
dream catcher 5pts

I really have no idea who Presti is going to pick in the range we are picking. A lot of big prospects. Should be for a fun and exciting draft on Thursday.

Jonathan Franco
Jonathan Franco 5pts

we need a center...Green should be played like Lamar Odom and Ibaka should start in his place. Green can be a 2,3, and a 4.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@dj
Splitter will want too much money for a still unproven player. Yeah, he's tearing it up in Europe, but there's still no guarantee (or trustworthy reports) to say he wants to come here. The last thing we need is to trade all out assets for a guy who may never even play for us. And then there is the money-production thing. He seems to be a quality defender and emerging scorer, but he's a poor rebounder (that's not just looking at Euro #s, DraftXpress agrees with me). Not to mention, the Euro game is not nearly as highly based on athleticism (which he lacks in comparison to NBA centers). We can't just pencil him in as a dominant force.

Considering Cousins or Monroe would likely cost less than half of what Splitter is making, while also being 5 years younger, I'd much rather use our assets on one of them.

Pales
Pales 5pts

I know I will probably be in the minority but I agree with the first option. Drafting Cousin is the way to go.

justin
justin 5pts

dj :We shouldn’t trade up. Rather we should trade picks, prospects & cap to the Spurs for Tiago Splitter.

You're stuck on this Splitter thing... after seeing the reactions from various fans on RealGM I don't think the Expirings / Low Picks for Jefferson / Splitter is going to work for the Spurs.

dj
dj 5pts

We shouldn't trade up. Rather we should trade picks, prospects & cap to the Spurs for Tiago Splitter.

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

For Hornest,their salary is $8 million over the luxury tax threshold next season.And there is a rumor that some team offer to CP3.Maybe their new ownner wants to save money at first.I think they would to agree trade Peja+11# to save money and thunder can give them some offer.

Crow
Crow 5pts

@DizzyDai

As a second rounder, he signed a a one year minimum deal. Because he did instead of 2 years or more (whether that be the Kings preference or his) they don't have bird or even early bird rights and he is unrestricted.

Gavin
Gavin 5pts

Chris Paul is available. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-paulhornets062110
Anyone interested?

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@justin

Biggest issue is how desperate the Hornets are to shed salary. We're taking a ton off their hands w/ Peja and Posey. Rumors I've heard are that they were willing to give up Collison in exchange for taking an expiring w/ him (Posey in this example.)

Since they are also reported to be willing to drop completely out of the draft, I assume it's possible they'd be willing to trade Peja + #11 for the #21 + #26.

But that's all a big if.

Second biggest question is how well Darren meshes w/ Tyreke. I didn't really see Darren play a whole lot.

But the Kings only fall a few spots. I'm sure they'd rather only fall to the 7th and work out some kinda deal w/ the Pistons, but they'd def get more proven talent w/ Green + Darren in the deal I laid out.

justin
justin 5pts

Oh oops. Well. I think that's pretty decent for the Kings, then.

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@DizzyDai@justin

I agree that the Kings are probably still the team to hold out, but to defend the fake trade, that Collison isn't Nick. It's Darren, so contrary to Dizzy's post, we would still be keeping the Nick version :P

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

Wow. I was just checking Sactown's roster for next year and noticed that Jon Brockman is an unrestricted free agent this summer. Wasn't he just drafted?

I better unload his autographed rookie card while he is still playing in the NBA.

justin
justin 5pts

@DXL

Have you seen Pleiss play even once? There's plenty of footage around of Kevin Seraphin, and Serge Ibaka was very well known and scouted / taped.

I'm sure Presti has seen the guy and will make a judgement based a lot on his scout's reports and first hand knowledge but I don't think anyone here but the German folks can make an informed opinion about the guy...

DXL
DXL 5pts

Drafting unknown foreign players in the first round is a signature Presti move. When he was at the Spurs he pushed for Tony Parker and Ian Mahinmi. Presti was also on staff when the Spurs were planning to draft the previously unknown Nenad Krstic but the Nets got him first. Serge Ibaka has worked out as well as can be expected for a 24th pick. I think Presti goes back into the well this year and tries for either Seraphin or Pleiss.

Pleiss is not one of these talled but unskilled Eurostashes that will never pan out; he's becoming one of the bright young stars in Europe. Head to head against Donatas Motiejunas of Benneton in a Eurocup competition this year, Pleiss put up a huge game of 18 points on 7/9 shooting and 12 rebounds in only 25 minutes. Motiejunas, who was projected to be in the lottery in some 2010 NBA draft mocks, scored 5 points, 0 rebounds and 5 fouls.

Pleiss performed very well for a young player last year--he lead the Eurocup competition in rebounds per minute played. I think he has as much potential as Motiejunas, Vesely, Claver, Seraphin or any other young European big.

justin
justin 5pts

Don't think the Kings do that. Green and Collison aren't enough, and they already shed Nocioni. I think they keep the pick.

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

Mark! :

Filipe :If OKC offer to take Udrih and Garcia off SAC hands plus #21 and #26, it might not even need to get any signficant player.

I highly doubt that. The Kings will have to make out like bandits to trade the #5. I believe that despite reports they’re trying to “trade down.” I read that as “trying to trade down while making out like bandits.” There will be some real commodities available at the top of the draft and they know it. And their fans know it.
I also don’t think Udrih and Garcia are viewed that negatively by Kings fans. Yeah, they’re overpaid, but not *grossly* overpaid.
I wonder if something can be worked out between OKC-NOR-SAC. If taking Posey + Peja from NOR is enough to squeeze out the #11 + Collison, we might be able to work something out. Still a big if even still.
Kings (-) #5
Kings (+) Green, Collison, #11
Kings SAL $43.9M
Hornets (-) #11, Stojakovic, Posey, Collison
Hornets (+) #21, #26
Hornets SAL $50.9M
Thunder (-) Green, #21, #26
Thunder (+) Posey, Stojakovic, #5
Thunder SAL $56.3M
We’d get most of our cap back next year since Peja is a $14M expiring. For us, it’s a question of whether or not acquiring Monroe/Cousins is enough compensation for losing Green, our picks and the option of chasing a FA this year.
New Orleans gets out of luxury tax hell, but not much else. Reports say they’re willing to give up their assets in exchange for cap relief. Their roster will be shallow, but the late round picks would help a tiny bit. For them, it’s really a question of whether or not those reports are accurate and selling out and saving is that important.
Kings make out pretty good, but I still wonder if even that is enough for them to be happy losing the #5.

As much I'd like to keep Green and Collison, I'd likely do this.

Offering the 21st and 32nd might work as well. I'm sure the Hornets would like a non-guaranteed contract given their cap-space issues.

Keep the 26th, and OKC can use it for a good stash until Peja is off the books.

GAP
GAP 5pts

@justin
Agreed.

justin
justin 5pts

I think a Monroe / Ibaka front court has potential. I'd trade up for him or Cousins.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

What do we need most? A center.
The only center worth trading up for is Cousins. If we cant get him, I rather try our luck with Whiteside or Orton, provided they slip, or any of those that would be there later. I liked Aldrich as a college player, but I dont see him being any thing other than a serviceable back up. We have 3 of those. IF Whiteside can mature, if he's half as good as his athleticism allows him to be, hell be better than any center we have. Howeverm, I am still not giving up on Mullens. Say what you will, he was very young and very raw. You can compare his improvement to Ibaka, that was a miracle that no one prophesized.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

I do not want to trade up for Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich. Losing a pic and presumably Green would be a mistake.
Green Must stay on as a 6th man.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@Thomas
i think he can, at this point he just wants a job in the nba, i was reading he was looking at coaching because he didnt expect to get a deal

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@Grolgar (formerly Durantula)

I think Green was drafted in 2007. That's not 2010 last I checked.

Grolgar (formerly Durantula)
Grolgar (formerly Durantula) 5pts

Does anyone find it ironic that we want to give up Green and more to get the #5 pick? When was Uncle Jeff drafted? Nothing is for sure in the draft.

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