No, I’m not talking about the three Thunder players some already identify with that. I’m talking about Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant. Whoa, what?
Tom Haberstroh writing for ESPN.com tells us more:
But as long as we’re using our wildest imaginations, can we design a more potent three-headed monster than James-Wade-Bosh? Actually, we can.
Employing the star-studded template of a point guard, wing scorer and big man, imagine this triumvirate: Paul, Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard in Oklahoma City. Collectively, again using Paul’s 2008-09 injury-free season, this group would edge the Miami trio with a total of 78.7 wins.
The scary thing? Depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement shakes out, it could be a viable scenario down the road. Howard and Paul each control their destiny in the summer of 2012, as they have player options for the 2012-13 season. Should the two opt out of their respective contracts with Orlando and New Orleans, the potential is there for a more powerful union than the one we just witnessed.
To be sure, there’s a difference between a plausible scenario and a realistic one. It’s hard to imagine Paul and Howard leaving money on the table to make the trio happen; the owners will try to bargain for a harder, lower salary cap in the imminent meetings with the Player’s Association. A slice in spending power would all but prohibit Paul and Howard joining Durant in Oklahoma City.
Still, we can dream right? Especially when one just became a reality.
this has too happend
Utah has made keeping 2 quality bigs in the game nearly all the time a priority and I think it is a pretty big part of their success.
Milsap should continue to get near or over 30 minutes. It is a bit of a surprise but there are worse off.
forgot it: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5378959
My buddy Habertom just dropped another more realistic piece featuring the Thunder's likelihood of toppling Miami
@justin@Greg
Especially with Okur recovering from a knee injury (don't know when he'll even start playing), I foresee a lot of Millsap-Jefferson. From a scoring perspective, it seems like a good idea, but they'll get torn up on defense.
My biggest issue is that Jefferson was had for nothing. Yeah, we are supposedly building a certain culture with our players, but if Utah thought he was worth the risk, enough to go into the luxury tax, how can we pretend he wasn't here? Jefferson would have had a much more positive impact here where the team is in desperate need of a post scorer.
@justin
This is so true. Kinda feel for Millsap. He's a good player and filled in great when Boozer was injured, he deserves a starting spot somewhere IMO.
I don't think this makes Utah as good as they were last year, simply because Boozer is a better fit in Utah and with D-Will. But it does make the Jazz better than they were a few days ago without question.
I bet Millsap is pissed. Part of the reason the Jazz said they matched that deal was to give him the PF spot if Boozer left. Unless they are going to play JEfferson / Millsap in the front court. That'd be a big mistake IMO...
@James
Honestly it is about the same as not losing Boozer. Both are good scorers and rebounders, both are bad defenders. Hollinger presumes it might open up for trading Okur, and playing more of Jefferson at center. While that puts more pressure on our big men to defend, it actually makes their job easier on offense. Utah is probably as good as they were last year, but not better.
Al Jefferson to Utah? Man that stinks.
@justin
I think he should start over Kenyon Martin. But Harrington typically comes off the bench, he'll be good for them. Outside of Smith they don't have much firepower coming off the bench.
Harrington helps them a lot and they are commited now to this roster, since that first year of Harrington will cost Denver $11 million after tax payments.
Sanders looked great yesterday, even his teammate Tiny Gallon pitched in as well.
Thoughts on Harrington to the Nuggets?
Matt :Could a prime Marbury have been the 2nd best player on a championship team? Interesting question.
Yes. But the one knock on Marbury (and one of the reasons why he didn't win anything) is that he was not a good performer in the playoffs.
If Serge put up an 18 PER post ASG, then maybe it is Ibaka (rather than Harden) who could be the third highest behind KD and RW. Maybe Ibaka gets close to 20 this year, who knows.
Could a prime Marbury have been the 2nd best player on a championship team? Interesting question.
Raw FG% was mostly 43-44%.
Well after looking at them all instead a random subset, make it 50/50. If you count from 98-99 thru 04-05 it is 3.5 seasons of 7 above 52% TS%.
@justin
Yeah my guesses might be a bit high but looks like 52% TS% was Marbury's lowest during the period and he was higher most of the years.
Big picture, shooting /scoring efficiency are probably the big opportunity areas for causing PER improvement.
@Crow
He could stand to lower his turnovers a bit, increase steals a little as well. Assists may still go up a little. Sort of like Stephon Marbury from 1999 to 2005, above PER20 every year but one, most of those years ~52 TS.
Looks like to get to PER 21-22 for a season Westbrook will probably need 45+% raw FG% and 55+ TS%.
That Game Score estimate is too crude. Ran it on Westbrook and it was way too high. Probably needs at least a minute adjustment and maybe add a constant term.
Alright, thanks for the link, I'll read it.
Out of curiosity I looked at Game Score and at least for Harden's mix, Game Score at B-R.com * 2.07 = PER.
Crow :@justin
Do you use Game Score or the official formula shortened or your own weight set for linear PER?
The blog moderates my comments when I link to it so put 'cracking the code linear per' into google and it's the first result. I use that formula with the weights adjusted a bit from commentary on realgm and I add pace adjustment.
Crow :@justin
Do you use Game Score or the official formula shortened or your own weight set for linear PER?
I use this formula only modified the weights a bit and I incorproate a crude pace adjustment: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/113144-cracking-the-code-how-to-calculate-hollingers-per-without-all-the-mess
@justin
Do you use Game Score or the official formula shortened or your own weight set for linear PER?
Minny's starting line up:
C: Milicic (2nd pick)
PF: Love (4th pick)
SF: Beasley (2nd pick)
SG: Webster (6th pick)
PG: Flynn (6th pick)
vs
Spurs lineup
C: Splitter (28th pick)
PF: Blair (37th pick)
SF: Ginobili (57th pick)
SG: G Hill (26th pick)
PF: Parker (28th pick)
who will win? :-D
Crow :Post all-star was Harden above or below PER 15?
Below, barely. His assists dropping seems to be the culprit.
Post all-star was Harden above or below PER 15?
@justin
Thanks for the data. So it looks like for the other months he may have average a bit over 17.
Fact: Minny have 7 top 7 picks in their roster: Beasly, Milicic, Webster, Wes Johnson, Love, Brewer, Flynn
I dont think there is any other team better than this :-D
@Grolgar
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
Hollinger's calculation is impossible to really do for partial seasons without a large database.
Linear PER assigns fixed weights to the boxscore stats that do a reasonable job of approximating the real thing.
justin :
Crow :Using a rough analysis, if you take out February Westbrook probably would have had about a PER of 16 – 16.5.
I have a spreadsheet that calculates PER in a linear way that is fairly accurate.
What goes into PER? I've heard it mentioned frequently, but never really taken the time to look at what goes into it?
It calculated Serge Ibaka's PER post All Star break as 18.1.
It calculates his PER post All Star break as 20.6.
The formula calculates his PER for the season as 18.2, Hollinger's real PER says 17.9. So it has some margin of error.
My linear PER has Russell Westbrook as 21.14 for February.
Crow :Using a rough analysis, if you take out February Westbrook probably would have had about a PER of 16 – 16.5.
I have a spreadsheet that calculates PER in a linear way that is fairly accurate.
Using what is available it looks like Harden didn't have huge or clearcut movement. Stronger than average March followed by weaker than average April. At least on offense.
Ibaka however finished March / April above what he had done before. He increased his shots, rebs and swats.
Using a rough analysis, if you take out February Westbrook probably would have had about a PER of 16 - 16.5.
By "NBA efficiency" Westbrook was slightly less good in April than he was last November but as I said besides February there wasn't huge movement.
His first season Westbrook had one really bad month. He definitely improved in general but effectively replacing that one very bad and very first month with a really good one in season 2 also helped.
justin :@Grolgar
I’m skeptical on whether Darnell knows more than us on that matter at this point.
This is also true.
Westbrook had a really strong playoff series and a great February. Don't have PER by month but that is the only regular season month that was strongly above the rest. It was his best month for basically almost everything- shots, FG%, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, fouls.
@Grolgar
I'm skeptical on whether Darnell knows more than us on that matter at this point.
@Grolgar
Not too surprising. I'd be shocked if Green wasn't starting opening night. But if the situation worsens, Green continues to underachieve and Ibaka continues to improve, then a switch could be made. I think they're making the right decision up to this point, Ibaka still hasn't proven he's capable of playing 30+ minutes a game. He may prove that this year hopefully.
Just so everyone can start to deal with it now, here what Darnel's just tweeted:
RT @mgorsuch25 @DarnellMayberry Do you think we'll see Ibaka starting at the 4 anytime soon? (Doubtful. Jeff Green is firmly locked in.)
web • 7/13/10 9:21 PM
If Harden or Ibaka earned the rights to play starter's minutes, their PER's would likely be 18+, maybe 19 for Harden if he makes a Westbrook-esque jump this year.
@justin
What was Russ' PER in his better stretch of the season? Just thinking he plays more consistent this year. That playoff series against LA could be a pretty big turning point for his career. Off to a nice start supposedly working out with a training legend this summer..
In Portland, for the B Roy era but besides Roy, Aldridge, Bayless, Batum, Fernandez, Oden have played 12 seasons. 8 of those season were PER15.5 or better. Not as much defense there even this season but will have to see next season.