In Bill Simmons’ mega-super-duper-mega-mega mailbag today, he talks a little about the potential Chris Paul trade. He mentions teams that actually have the means to pull it off. Orlando, Portland, Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City. Wait, what?
Yep, Simmons proposes this trade, which sends Russell Westbrook, Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic’s bald spot, Daequan Cook, Byron Mullens and two first round picks for Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor.
His justification: “So if they’re really trading him — and by the way, he wanted out five weeks ago — we’re about to find out what’s important to Mr. Paul. If he wants to win titles, he pushes for Oklahoma City or Orlando. If he wants to be famous in a big market, play D’Antoni Ball and throw alley-oops to Amare Stoudemire as MSG goes bonkers, he pushes for New York. Either way, I think he’s gone.”
Now obviously, OKC isn’t dealing for CP3. For whatever reason, Oklahomans have these delusions about Paul loving OKC so much that he’d basically be willing to play here for free. Yes, we all enjoyed Chris Paul while he was here. Without him and the excitement he brought, we probably don’t have a team. But he’s not coming here. We know this. It. Won’t. Happen.
But that’s not the interesting dynamic here. As I looked over that trade, I had to wonder, “Would I do it?” Sam Presti lets me wear his hat for a day and Dell Demps calls me offering Paul and Okafor for all of that. Am I in?
Basically, you’re trading Russell Westbrook for Paul. You give up a lot of financial flexibility and assets, but you get the best point guard in the game. To me, no brainer move. I love Westbrook to death – literally, to death – but how can you pass that up?
But at the same time, does that deal work for the Thunder? I might do that move because I’m an impressionable moron that sees Chris Paul’s name attached and therefore I start offering everything, including janitors, Rumble and Matt Pinto. But would Presti? I say no. If Presti’s phone rang, he’d say, “That’s interesting. But no thanks. Can we have an unprotected first-round pick only for some cash instead? We can? Thanks.” Because that’s how Presti operates. It’s not the hear and now he sees. He looks ahead and sees the future.
Westbrook is a much, much better fit for the future of the Thunder. Paul wouldn’t be staying here in two years. Plus, bringing him aboard plus the remaining $52 million owed to Okafor over the next four years would mean either Jeff Green, James Harden or Serge Ibaka wouldn’t be able to hang around.
Plus, I know this sounds wild, but do we really know how good Russ can be yet? Paul is a transcendent player and might finish as the best ever at his position. So don’t misunderstand and think I’m comparing the two. But Westbrook might be a better player for Oklahoma City. We’re not entirely sure what Westbrook’s ceiling is at this point. Is he a 15-point, 8-assist guy? A 18-9? A 20-10? I’m not sure I want to cap his ability quite yet.
Yes, CP3 comes to OKC and the Thunder probably have a chance to win now. But that’s the kind of shortsighted move that helps you next year and hurts you in 10. While a lot of us might do it, Sam Presti wouldn’t. And that’s why he gets the multi-year extension and millions and we don’t.
Isn’t wild and mostly senseless speculation in late July fun?
@Greg, @DSY, @Keith... No chill pill needed, that's cute that shiki is a "good guy and doesnt deserve my crap", he can probably stick up for himself, doesn't need his life partner backing him up (@Keith) but, we all like to have semi-knowledgeable conversations about the thunder, spawned from semi-understandable posts, but shiki just sounds like someone who should have paid more attention in middle school before disrupting a good flowing conversation over the Paul trade scenario. His comments should be redirected to the SportsIllustrated4Kids website. Bring It
Westbrook for CP3? I wouldn't. No offense to Mr. Paul, but he's just had a terrible injury. He makes the money he should - NO would be lost without him - but he still costs too much for Presti to just rent him for a couple of years.
Dirk raised his game against western playoff level teams (but not enough to carry them). Most stars don't. Nash and Amare showed best against this split though the regular season and it carried them deep in the playoffs. Duncan ticked up against these but Ginobili dropped way down, at least this season. Deron Williams moved up but not enough apparently. (Games against western playoff level teams account for about 1/3rd of the season so it is a decent sized sample.)
The Lakers fared best because of the size of the step up of their second tier players financed by the league leading payroll.
I looked at Durant's regular season splits and he does the least damage overall against western playoff level teams. To gauge whether his fall=off was average or not for stars I looked at Kobe Bryant. Kobe's fall=off against western playoff teams was more than double the size. But... Gasol, Bynum and Artest all did by far their best against these teams. So it is probably true that they tried to cut down Kobe but the other lead Lakers picked up the challenge and pulled them thru well enough. Looking at Westbrook, Harden and Green they do not have much positive picked up in similar circumstances, at least regular season. Westbrook picked it up in the playoff series but not enough to win it on his own. Until they have enough countervailing punch beyond Durant-several guys- the playoff defensive strategy probably will be the same- stop the star, figure the rest can't beat you enough.
No surprise but all 5 of the Thunder's top 10 role fulfillment came on the perimeter (2 Russ, 2 KD, 1 Thabo). Getting a few from the interior would obviously help in competing against the elite. These lists were not minute weighted so it would be more difficult for Ibaka to rise into the defensive top 10.
All this is based on Wins Produced formulas which are not my first choice but it was what was made available. It could be redone under other systems.
All contributions from everybody count but top role fulfillment might make a significant difference when top team meets top team. The Finals edge of champs on this over runner-ups is at least in agreement with that proposition.
If you give this any weight then Dallas is a team on the spot who might either not make the playoffs or not compete well once they get there. And the Thunder had 7 western teams better than them on this test last year.
Houston 6 without Yao. New Orleans 6.
There are caveats to such an approach but it can still be of some interest, at least to me.
Portland scored 8. Denver 6, Utah 6, San Antonio 8, Dallas 4.
This article is related to the idea of fulfilling roles at a position to a level of excellence.
http://nerdnumbers.wordpress.com/2010/07/23/thursday-morning-musing-2010s-top-role-players/
If I counted right the Lakers had 7 top 10 finishes. Celtics and Suns 6. Magic and Cavs I think only 3. Thunder had 5, 3 being on defense.
If you believe you need the combo of a strong scorer / good passer and a good scorer / good rebounder like close to all the 5 last title winners then it appears OKC may need Westbrook to improve his scoring. There are different ways to do that but improving his outside shot would probably be the best or most important way.
I checked for the number of players in the league who averaged 20 pts and 4 assists per game or 15 pts and 7 rebs per game over the last 5 years and it averaged about 10 on each.
Of the last 5 title winners, 4 had both (if you give Paul Pierce a slight rounding assist) and Tony Parker's miss by only 1.4 pts per game was a pretty modest shortfall from the Spurs achieving this and making it a clean sweep.
Of the last 5 Finals runner-ups they averaged fulfillment of these requirements 1-1.4 times each depending if you gave them a rounding assist. If you are willing to slide the scoring requirements of 20+ and 15+ between the two player sets the fulfillment is a bit higher.
If you keep them as presented the Thunder fulfilled 1 of the 2 last season. If you allow sliding the scoring requirements between the player sets they fulfilled both.
The year Paul and the Hornets got the farthest (a game 7 loss in the second round) they fulfilled both for the first time.
@justin
I think we know what Paul can do, we still have not seen Durant mature yet. Durant can be the best player in this league before he is done. That means he is on the pantheon with all the other greats of the game. I think Paul is an Isiah Thomas type of player, second tier great.
Interestingly, I find it hard to compare Durant to any other player I have seen. My experience tells me that is a sign of a different kind of greatness.Lastly, I think he wants is as much as any other player I have seen other than Jordan. Much like Kobe, yet he has more talent than Kobe.
larry :@justinyes i did, but the conversation was that paul is a top 5 player and durant is not.
So what does Kevin Durant do better than Chris Paul that makes him a better player at this moment?
@Keith
not sure. have you seen the reviews westy has been getting with the national team?
@justin
yes i did, but the conversation was that paul is a top 5 player and durant is not.
I understand everything that guy types. Who cares if it's not perfect. This is a basketball blog not the New York Times.
@larry
No one would trade Durant for Paul. That was never in question. But, would you trade Westbrook?
@Blake
Take a chill pill or get off the site. Shiki is a good guy, and he doesn't deserve your crap.
@Blake
That's completely uncalled for.
larry :Fortunately, Presti runs this team and you guys do not. He is not trading half the team for a point guard. Durant won the scoring title and was second in MVP at the age of 21. No one that understands those implications would ever trade him for a point guard.
Nobody is proposing trading Durant for Paul, did you even read the comments?
Blake :
@shiki=4seasons: If you have something smart to say, which is apparently a strong NO, learn to use modern day gramatically correct english when trying to prove a point. Ibaka has a better grasp on English than you do my man…
Ouch. That might be a little harsh..
@shiki=4seasons: If you have something smart to say, which is apparently a strong NO, learn to use modern day gramatically correct english when trying to prove a point. Ibaka has a better grasp on English than you do my man...
Fortunately, Presti runs this team and you guys do not. He is not trading half the team for a point guard. Durant won the scoring title and was second in MVP at the age of 21. No one that understands those implications would ever trade him for a point guard.
I don't see how trading for CP is gutting our future. He's not a 32-year old run down player. I see it as consolidating talent. At some point, the future is now. The Bulls could never pull the trigger on a big trade for Garnett or Gasol or Bryant because they didn't want to "gut their future." Unfortunately, Deng, Hinrich, Gordon, etc. didn't become the players they had hoped. When you have the chance to get another superstar to go with your own superstar, you do it.
While in OKC CP was a great ambassador for our city, but I would not want to trade for him. We have a core group that will gel and solidify into a contender if most stay healthy and improve. It would be simply foolish to gut our future for CP.
Keith :@Anonymous
No OKC fan would trade Durant for Paul straight up. The difference in ability is small enough that contract concerns and injury history are much more important. Further, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I know exactly what Durant will do here, it is slightly less certain with Paul.
But again, that doesn’t make Durant the better player. I wouldn’t trade Durant for Lebron straight up, all things considered, and Lebron is easily the best player in the league.
You've been on point this whole thread. Thanks for bringing the sanity.
(Pain me as it would to turn down LBJ for Durant since LBJ is so far and away the better player, I think, in this case, you can't do that trade. It comes down to the fact that I don't think LBJ wouldn't be able to fully commit himself to the Thunder the way that Durant obviously does and that of the two players, one is quite likely to stay past year 5 and the other almost certain to bolt.)
@Anonymous
No OKC fan would trade Durant for Paul straight up. The difference in ability is small enough that contract concerns and injury history are much more important. Further, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I know exactly what Durant will do here, it is slightly less certain with Paul.
But again, that doesn't make Durant the better player. I wouldn't trade Durant for Lebron straight up, all things considered, and Lebron is easily the best player in the league.
Do Cavs and Magics exchange LBJ and Howard?I think none of them says yes.And it is the same as KD and Cp3.
the two guy are both top players,but KD is younger and need more to prove.If KD can win scorer title again and lead thunder win more,I would say he is as good as or better than cp3.
Paul is older, has more injury concerns, and has now shown an unflattering side to himself with this trade stuff. Durant was 2nd in MVP voting last year. He is, right now, ahead of Paul.
Having said that, I would trade RW+JG+filler+picks for him and Okafor. Paul+Durant+the remaining cast can beat the Lakers and Miami.
Here's how I see it.
Now, Chris Paul is better. However, he's also 4 years older. I'd be willing to bet KD has the better career, and he definitely has the higher ceiling.
hell yeah i'm a homer, but that doesn't change the fact that chris paul is NOT better than KD. like Anon above me said, would you trade KD for paul straight-up? i sure as hell would not.
Plus, CP3 says he wants to "join another superstar." Yeah, I think Kevin Durant more than fits the bill. Then, what if next year or in 2 years, we can acquire a 3rd superstar at a discount because they want to play with CP3 and KD? Then we would be right on par with Miami and the Lakers.
Let me leave you all with one thought. Imagine CP3 throwing up alley oop lobs to Serge Ibaka. He would take Air Congo to new heights.
I'm salivating.
Paul's not coming to OKC, it's that simple. He's represented by the same people as LeBron, who in their right minds think those guys want CP3 in a small market?
Winning isn't the sole driving force anymore with a good number of players who are in the spotlight.
Are you serious? Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor for Westbrook, Collison, Mullens, Cook, Krstic and 2 first rounders???
I DO IT IN A SECOND! DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT! DO IT!!!
Everyone says Paul might bolt once his contract is up. Well, who's to say Westbrook won't bolt for L.A. the first chance he gets? Durant said all along he wanted to stay in OKC, but I haven't heard that from Russ.
Chris Paul is an amazing point guard. He can pass, shoot and defend. He averages like 2 steals a game. He has a reliable jumper (something Russ will never have) and can hit the 3. He can get to the rim. He can make his teammates better. Look at how much better he made Tyson Chandler. Plus he's played in OKC before and I think he wouldn't mind coming back.
As for the other pieces, Collison, Cook and Krstic are all likely going to be gone next year anyway. Mullens may or may not pan out. And our 2 first rounders wouldn't be that valuable since they will likely be in the mid-to-late 20's if we acquire CP3. Plus we don't need anymore youngsters. I hope we don't give up the LA Clippers pick though.
With CP3, our lineup would be sick!
PG: Paul, Maynor
SG: Thabo, Harden
SF: Durant, Peterson
PF: Green, Ibaka
C: Okafor, Aldrich
DO THIS TRADE PRESTI!!!
Let me get this straight - Bill Simmons is actually referring to Oklahoma City by name now? I may have to start reading his columns again if that's the case. The whole 'zombie sonics' garbage was incredibly stupid, and decided me against reading his columns.
As far as Westbrook and first round picks for Chris Paul, never would have expected to see myself write this, but no, I would not make that trade. I'll always love what CP3 did for Oklahoma City, and he'll always have a special place here. He's part of our history. Westbrook is part of our not-to-be-traded future.
Isn't Cho a client of CAA?
Jonathan Franco :
Chris Paul for Jeff Green, Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic’s bald spot and both of our 1 round draft picks. (one from the clippers)
PG- Paul
SG-Westbrook
SF-Durant
PF-Ibaka
C-Aldrich
Bench-Harden,Cook,Maynor, Mullens
It is said Nola want to package Okafor with CP3.
Chris Paul for Jeff Green, Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic’s bald spot and both of our 1 round draft picks. (one from the clippers)
PG- Paul
SG-Westbrook
SF-Durant
PF-Ibaka
C-Aldrich
Bench-Harden,Cook,Maynor, Mullens
Chris Paul is Top Five, as Keith said. Anyone who is saying Durant is better than Paul either have really short memories or are just not looking at the whole picture.
Where, exactly, is Kevin Durant better than Paul? As a scorer? Yeah, he scores more points but they both have nearly identical scoring efficiencies. And when Chris Paul isn't scoring the ball about as efficiently as Durant, he's the best playmaker in the league. And he's a top 10 rebounder for a point guard. And a league leader in steals.
Paul is one of those guys who impacts the game on enough levels to be on that elite top five category with LeBron / Wade / Dwight / Kobe. Kevin Durant is a great player, but he's right outside that company at this point.
Claiming that Durant is better than Paul really seems like homer conceit...
Chris Paul, when healthy, when playing well, is better than anything we've seen out of Durant to this point. While I love Kevin as much as the next person, that's just the facts. It's the same with Lebron. I don't really like Lebron much, especially after the this offseason, but I can't just pretend he's not the best basketball player in the world because I don't like him.
And the opposite is true with Kevin Durant. I love him. He's already one of my favorite athletes of all time. But he's not the greatest player of all time, not the greatest player in the game today. It's not a knock on Durant for him to be top 10 or top 5. I said back during the season that I thought Durant was still not quite top 5 (Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Paul, Howard). He might be the best scorer in the world. He might still have a decent amount of untapped potential. But, that doesn't mean there aren't better players right now (which is not to say better people: I think he has the most character of just about anyone in pro sports).
@Greg
My overall point is that there are a lot of teams with potential. Many had superstars, all of them had multiple players with "top 5 potential." No team is guaranteed a championship and no player is guaranteed to reach his potential. The best you can do is build the team with the best chance of success you can. Sure, if Chris Paul flat out tells you that he's leaving in 2 years then you probably don't make the move. Otherwise? It makes no sense to save your potentially very good point guard for the proven to be legendary one.
@Sammy
I shouldn't even have to point out the discrepancies between those teams. Shaq bailed on Orlando, KD is here 6 more years? Similarities?
And Arenas? I'll just stop there.
justin :
Chris Paul is better than Kevin Durant.
as cosmo kramer would say, that's "kooky talk."
Shaq Magic, Run TMC Dubs, Webber Kings, Arenas/Butler/Jamison Wiz...
@Sammy
Yeah the Hornets showed a lot of promise by making the infamous mistake of OVERPAYING FREE AGENTS. Dishing out fat contracts to wing players in their mid 30's is a recipe for disaster.
Last time I checked, the Thunder fortunately aren't doing that.
I think some people here are confusing "realism" with "cynicism".
Who are these teams you speak of?
The Johnson/Zo Hornets, the Kidd/Jackson/Mashburn Mavs, the Baby Bulls, the late 90s Nets. Heck, even the recent CP3 Hornets.
Royce Young :@justinI think you misunderstood. I never indicated Russ would be better than Paul. I think I said the opposite. But my point is, we shouldn’t just write Russ off as a guy that can’t still be a great point guard. Yeah he won’t be CP3, but he could maybe be second best. Seriously, he could.
And Chris Paul is not better than Kevin Durant. I mean… come on. Now you’re just trying to be divisive and rile folks up.
I think you should go "Trabor" on Sammy- delete his comments as they come in, and bash his parents while you do it. Hey, its worked for Trabes so far.
@Greg
There have been a ton of "potential top 5 future PGs" that have come through the league. Way, way, way more than the number of "PGs that have turned in single seasons to rival the performance of any PG in NBA history."
Anonymous :“Worldwide Wes was responsible for Oklahoma City Thunder executive Rich Cho getting hired as the Portland Trail Blazers’ GM.”
Single sentence. No mention of sources. Cho directly denied any direct involvement by Wes. I believe Cho on this one.
There's an element of truth to most rumors. It had to come from somewhere right?
@Sammy
Paul had a great season. KD was second most valuable player in the league at the age of 21! He completely turned around a franchise in just 2 years, what more can you ask of the guy?
The constant bashing of Green gets a little old, but the complete understating of Westbrook and Durant on here by some people is just outlandish. They're 21 and are some of the best players in the league!