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Oklahoma City: The Jedi Masters to Miami’s Sith Lords

by Royce Young on July 9, 2010 at 3:34 pm 277 Comments

This is something a lot of people are talking about lately, myself included. Not just didn’t Kevin Durant handle his business entirely different from LeBron, but the Thunder in general are handling things entirely different from the new team of destiny, the Heat. I’d write 1,000 words on it, but Shoals sums it all up pretty darn nicely.

What I’m thinking now is what this means for the rest of the league. Yes, we know, this team will be the prohibitive favorite to win rings for years to come, especially with role players lining up to play for sheckles. It might well destroy the competitive balance of the league. But to get more specific, this changes everything for Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Let’s start with the Thunder, if only because enough digital ink was spilled yesterday in praise of Kevin Durant’s modesty-in-extension. As one friend pointed out, while Durant may be totally genuine, we’re not that far away from him being held up, sickeningly so, as a counter-Bron, a model for all that our kids should aspire to even as James tries to bankroll their futures.

But this idea isn’t new. If James has been known to disappear and lacks a murder-setting — one popular criticism — the smaller, less physically-gifted KD lives and dies by the game’s outcome.

What’s more, Sam Presti has built a team from the ground up, through smart draft picks, imaginative combinations, and signings geared toward maximum flexibility. The Thunder aren’t just the wholesome good guys to the Evil Empire of Miami. They are a team built the Right Way, which in this context means using brains, imagination, and acumen. No blunt force, no shortcuts. Landing Durant was lucky, and yes, I’m sure there’s some curse on them because of Sonics-gate.

If the Heat plan to dominate, their most worthy foes for the future just might be a team that represents everything they’re not. And one that leaves the door open for a team to rebuild organically, dynamically.

Shoals couldn’t be more right. As LeBron’s villainy snowballs more, Durant’s sainthood will as well. For better or worse, prepare yourself to have KD lifted on a pedestal. National media will take him and say, “See here? This is the athlete you kids need to be more like. THIS is your role model. Durant is the model athlete.” It’s something neither KD or the Thunder asked for. It was just earned.

And that’ll be a lot of pressure. Durant is genuine. This being humble, loving teammates and just caring about basketball isn’t a show. It’s real. I remember watching LeBron’s interview after the McDonald’s All-American game back in 2003. He just talked about how winning the game was the most important thing.

And it all just seemed so fake. It felt contrived. It felt like he was saying it because he thought we wanted to hear it. I thought it at the time, but it really all makes sense now. We won’t ever that kind of ah-ha! moment with Durant. He’s genuine to the core. He’s not acting this way for PR. It’s just who he is. And I’ll fistfight anyone who thinks otherwise.

Regardless of that, the pressure will certainly build for him. More people will elevate both KD and the Thunder as the good guys to Miami’s bad. If OKC fails, people will be disappointed, and not just Thunder fans. Some have placed hope in the Thunder, because they feel like they’re what’s good about the NBA. What’s happening in Miami is the bad. If there’s ever an NBA Finals between the two, worlds will collide, lightsabers will be drawn and small, furry creatures will throw rocks at walking machines. (I’m not really sure where I was going with that.)

It’ll be a lot to take in. But it’s something we probably need to prepare for. You’re going to see more articles praising the Thunder way and KD’s leadership. Which definitely is not a bad thing. But carrying that beacon for a lot of people can have it’s pressure. It might be tough. But I think these guys are up to it. At least I know the leader is. The force is strong with this one. Or something like that.

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Crow
Crow 5pts

From the clutch performance numbers from the last 2 years it appears James should take most of that load. Wade is streaky. If he is hot, he is fine. He's better to try to draw foul shots than make tough shots. In the clutch Bosh should prepare to rebound and putback or kick out or possibly go for a well timed cut to the rim.

If the trio has a playoff PER of 75+ and the rest of team doesn't more than give back the edge the trio has vs other top teams they probably win. If the trio only get to playoff PER 70 or the bench is too weak or they face a defense much more than 5 spots better than them they could well lose.

ThunderHorn
ThunderHorn 5pts

Another thing I don't understand is why people continue to talk about them playing together on the Olympic team as some sign they'll play well and dominate.

Last time I checked Kobe, Howard, CP3, Melo, Williams, etc were all on that team as well. Its not like it was Wade, Lebron, Bosh and a bunch of role players or scrubs. They were on a team full of superstars.

Also I remember watching the gold medal game and watching both Lebron and Wade not try to take over due to the "I don't want to step on anyone's toes" stuff. The US only put Spain away when Kobe said "f this shit" and unleashed his Kobe-mode and took over, not caring about toes being stepped on.

Will be interesting to see if one of them will just take the ball and say "get out of my way I'm not letting us lose" or if they'll try to tip toe around each other in that situation. Will they end up deferring almost too much? similar to what happened for a large part of the gold medal game against Spain.

Will also be interesting to see how these guys actually react to not being the guy with the ball in their hands at every end of game situation.

Juwan Howard? Nice veteran presence, he was big for the Blazers last year with all their injuries.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

miami looking to add juwan howard: http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/23122302

not exactly the stud backup they need

Crow
Crow 5pts

They probably won't come close to this combined playoff PER level due to having to split usage but the playoff PER of James and Wade this season + Bosh last season came to... 83.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

Greg :

f5alcon :@f5alcon

though that being said, lebron wont shut down durant like artest did, and they dont have a pg who can stop russ, if we had a legit post scorer we could beat them

Wade would guard Westbrook, probably Miller on Harden/Thabo. I would assume at least. Maybe Byron or Pleiss can do some work down the line on Erick Dampier’s corpse.

That ssumes that wade can stay in front of westbrook, im not so sure he can, wade is a decent defender against SGs but the fast PGs in the league are faster then him.

Crow
Crow 5pts

If Green wins a few of those, it will do a good amount of offsetting.

Crow
Crow 5pts

A lot of it will come down to crunch-time performance to win close games.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The Thunder were at 58 in the regular season and 57 in the playoffs if you call Harden or Ibaka the #3 instead of Green. Stay with counting Green and you slipped to 49.

Still, I guess it is somewhat encouraging that this first playoff (with Harden or Ibaka as #3) was comparable to the range of the recent runner-ups.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The combined playoff PER for the top 3 guys for the last 5 champs has been remarkably stable. It has ranged from 65 to 68 (with the only caveat being the short minutes of Mourning as the Heat's #3 in 2005-6).

The runners-up ranged from 52 to 60 and averaged about 57.5, or about 15% below the champs average.

Crow
Crow 5pts

That Lakers PER set was regular season. In this playoffs Kobe and Gasol stepped up to 25 and 24. Bynum slipped to 17 but gutted out almost 25 minutes a game.

Crow
Crow 5pts

For this title the Lakers top 3 had PER 23, 22 and 20.

The 07-8 Celtics beat a very tough Lakers team but with actually the weakest top 3 on PER of any title winner in the last 5 seasons. They had a challenging, nail-biting ride and lost clearly the most playoff games in route to the title at 10.

Crow
Crow 5pts

I talked about regular season PER because that is the most stable and might generally be the best measure of skill level but yeah really it has to carry over into the playoffs to matter.

Crow
Crow 5pts

@justin

Yeah. He has got to get over PER25 and maybe over 28 in the playoffs to really have achance.

Crow
Crow 5pts

25 more guys have gone over PER25 in the playoffs in the last decade. 4 more won titles. Half were still named O'Neal and Duncan but Kobe and Wade slip in with 1 each. Kobe with Gasol, Wade with O'Neal.

justin
justin 5pts

Crow :Of course PER is an imperfect shorthand but it does somewhat get more at offensive production.
Magic were and still are deficient at #2 and #3 on offense and maybe still at #1 too.
You are right that match-ups matter and pulling down the opponent’s #1, 2 or 3 is probably pretty important, especially as a way to offset your own shortfall on offense.

Perfect example is what the Lakers did to us. Durant went from what, PER 26 to PER 17...

Crow
Crow 5pts

Of course PER is an imperfect shorthand but it does somewhat get more at offensive production.

Magic were and still are deficient at #2 and #3 on offense and maybe still at #1 too.

You are right that match-ups matter and pulling down the opponent's #1, 2 or 3 is probably pretty important, especially as a way to offset your own shortfall on offense.

justin
justin 5pts

@Crow

Jameer Nelson got hurt and played 'Brandon Roy' minutes in the playoffs in 08-09. Lewis and Turkoglu was #2 and #3 for them in the playoffs...

I think there's more to it than PER, matchups obviously have a lot more to do in specific matchups. For example in 07-08 the Lakers went up against a Celtics team that had terrific defense in the front court which turned PER 23 Pau Gasol into PER 18 or 19.

I do agree with your general point, that we need more production from our 2nd and 3rd options.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Until the Thunder get #2 and #3s closer to the desired PER 23 and 19 Durant would have to have a really strong playoffs to carry them all the way.

In the last ten years. 17 players had a playoff PER of 28+. 4 won the title. All big men named O'Neal or Duncan. No title winners for the Kobe, LeBron, Wade, etc. efforts on this list.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The recent runner-ups

O5-6 Mavs- PER 19s as #2 and #3. 11th ranked defense. Not good enough.

06-7 Cavs- PER 18 and 17 as #2 and #3. 4th ranked defense. Not good enough. Swept.

07-8 Lakers- PER 24 and 23 as #2 and #3. 5th ranked defense. Not quite good enough to beat the Celtics.

08-9 Magic- PER 21 and 17 as #2 and #3. Best defense. Not enough, too "young". Out 4-1.

09-10 Celtics- PER 19 and 18 as #2 and #3. 5th ranked defense. Not good enough.

Crow
Crow 5pts

If your #2 is near good enough you can get deep in the contention conversation. Less likely if you don't get close to this criteria. Would take a super defense and good match-ups. And as noted before the overall champ usually has a pretty good #3 too.

Crow
Crow 5pts

All the western conference finalists the last 4 seasons came from that group of 5.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Besides the Lakers the only teams in the west with an adequate or near adequate by these standards #2 guy going forward are San Antonio and Denver. Utah and Phoenix were close before but lost their #2 to free agency.

DLott
DLott 5pts

The real heat fans gotta be lovein the hate

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orlando-magic/os-orlando-magic-jj-redick-offer-sheet-071010,0,1011617.story
Orlando Magic General Manager Otis Smith 'anticipates' matching J.J. Redick's offer

4razr
4razr 5pts

One regret I have with Presti--I would like to see him be less cautious with his 2nd rounders. Caracter has been a candidate all along for 2nd round steal, as Blair was last year. Why not take a flier on guys like that?

Rich
Rich 5pts

So, if LeBron is going to play point like the rumors says...then who in the world is guarding Brandon Jennings, or Rondo? None of those guys out there can stay infront of them, and then one they get to the rim they have...Chrish Bosh to worry about. This heat team, especially since they'll be playing Mike Miller, is going to be very very poor defensively.

sman
sman 5pts

With all their noise and pomp, they shall be known as:

The Three All-egos and the Miami Sound Machine.... I suppose if they get a bench they will be hard to beat for sure, but I am happy we have the Thunder.

Crow
Crow 5pts

It is still a little early on this for the Thunder but it appears they have 2 in KD and Russ. There are candidates for the third in Collison and Harden but whether Nick stays and whether Harden will develop and be consistent remains to be seen.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The champs have also tended to have 3 guys with strong Adjusted +/-.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Over the last 5 years the champ has had their superstar then a #2 with an average PER of 23, a #3 with an average PER of 19 and then an average of 3 more guys with at least a PER 13-14.

By these standards the Thunder have their regular season superstar who just needs to do the same in the playoffs, a close to #3 level guy and at least 5 support guys who make the PER 13 level. They need to either add a true #2 or grow their #3 level guy into that and elevate or get a #3 guy.

Greg
Greg 5pts

shiki=4 seasons :
I think it is good news that the market is so crazy.There would be not many teams having cap space in 2011 and 2012,we can extend Green and Russ easily.

This is a good point. Next year's free agent class has some bigger names (especially than Green), so there's a good chance we could retain both without killing our cap.

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

I think it is good news that the market is so crazy.There would be not many teams having cap space in 2011 and 2012,we can extend Green and Russ easily.

Vega
Vega 5pts

Johan Petro... Damn.

Greg
Greg 5pts

@ThunderHorn
I think this might be a unique circumstance, given the Heat's rise to fan hatred. And that will only continue.

Greg
Greg 5pts

Excerpt from the bleacher:
So, if LeBron James is now the casual NBA fan’s villain, the player they root for to fail, who will play the hero? Who will be the new King, the new heir?

It says here that it happens to be a young man playing in Oklahoma City named Kevin Durant. Durant and his young Thunderous crew must step into the void that LeBron James has left in Cleveland.

Not only do I believe that Durant will sit in that throne, I believe he will take it to places James only teased. I believe Durant is the first King that the NBA has seen who might actually make us forget, if only for moments, Michael Jordan. That is what it means to be the true King of the NBA.

ThunderHorn
ThunderHorn 5pts

Also I wouldn't worry too much about the media, they'll turn on KD/OKC eventually. The media loves to build guys up and then tear them down.

The media love for OKC/KD will also cause opposing fans to start hating us more. The Spurs are one of the most hated teams in the NBA. So they'll get a ton of hate when they go on the road.

Greg
Greg 5pts

f5alcon :@f5alcon

though that being said, lebron wont shut down durant like artest did, and they dont have a pg who can stop russ, if we had a legit post scorer we could beat them

Wade would guard Westbrook, probably Miller on Harden/Thabo. I would assume at least. Maybe Byron or Pleiss can do some work down the line on Erick Dampier's corpse.

Greg
Greg 5pts

If it does turn into superstar league, I'll take KD-RW-Dwight anyday.

ThunderHorn
ThunderHorn 5pts

@Bryan

bleacherreport is a nationally recognized/re-nowned sports website. anyone can write for them.

Stefan
Stefan 5pts

Check out the potential fallout of LeBron, the trade for David Lee and upcoming NBA Summer League

sportsaccordingtome.com

justin
justin 5pts

shiki=4 seasons :how much Thabo can get if he is FA this year?16M/4 years?

There isn't much to go on. Ryan Gomes got 3/12. Randy Foye got 2/8.5. Thabo is worth more than those guys.

I think Thabo could have gotten 5/25 from someone this offseason. Maybe a little bit more than that. I think Raja Bell is a good precedent, and he got about 5/25 a few years ago.

Albabycakes
Albabycakes 5pts

@shiki=4 seasons
I bet someone would give him at least a Darko contract 4yrs/$20mil...

shiki=4 seasons
shiki=4 seasons 5pts

how much Thabo can get if he is FA this year?16M/4 years?

justin
justin 5pts

Petro should send a thank you card to Kenyon Martin's knee...

Bryan
Bryan 5pts

Man the Nets are fucked

Albabycakes
Albabycakes 5pts

Has anyone mentioned that JOHAN PETRO just got $10 million over 3 years from the Nets?!?

Sorry if it's already been discussed, but even if it has, it deserves to be stated again...

Bryan
Bryan 5pts

@donuteyes
Agreed.... Stuff like this is way over the top:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/417593-king-lebron-james-abdicates-throne-all-hail-king-kevin-durant

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@donuteyes
verbal felating, lol

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

*Big 3

donuteyes
donuteyes 5pts

i guess i haven't really realized since i'm in okc, but it seems like we have somehow become a 'media-darling.' every story i read about the thunder anymore is a verbal felating of KD, presti, and the entire organization. it's a little scary, honestly...

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