David Liam Kyle/NBAE/Getty Images
One thing we know for sure: Kevin Durant will never do to Oklahoma City what LeBron James did to Cleveland on Thursday night.
But I’m not talking about leaving for another team, just the despicable, awkward one-hour television special that ripped the heart out of Ohio sports fans. Leaving for another team could happen. The situations in Cleveland over the past decade and in Oklahoma City over the coming one have as many obvious similarities as obvious differences.
Oklahoma City’s main advantage? The team and its direction will be a more powerful force to help keep Durant than it was for Cleveland in keeping (or losing, as it turned out) James. It’s apparent now that James was always going to leave. The Cavaliers gave LeBron just about every conceivable perk and built an annual title contender, and it still wasn’t enough. The Thunder doesn’t have to do that to keep Durant happy. Sam Presti and Co. just have to give him a chance to compete for championships, and the Thunder appears poised to do just that. If Durant can play winning basketball in Oklahoma City all the way through his prime, he won’t leave, but that’s a bigger if than you may think.
There’s no fear mongering going on here. Durant has never even hinted that he would leave Oklahoma City under any circumstances in his control. (The only evidence I can find that he’d even consider it, other than the mandatory “you never know” thrown in upon occasion, were comments about the Miami Thrice saga said to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman, seen near the bottom here.) But Durant wants to win.
People assume it’s hard to win a title, but in fact that’s only true of some teams. It apparently isn’t all that hard for the Celtics and Lakers, who have combined to average a title nearly once every other year. If you live in a tradition-rich big market, championship players will come without being drafted there. Take a look at the list of NBA champions. Only two small-market teams, the Portland Trailblazers and San Antonio Spurs — have won a title since the year before the only Blazers’ triumph in 1976-77. Since that Blazers win, six teams have combined to win 29 of the 33 subsequent titles. The exceptions were only big-market teams: one-off championships by the Seattle SuperSonics (!), Washington Bullets, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. The only one of those that happened in the last TWENTY-SEVEN years came when Shaquille O’Neal got shipped to Miami.
No one like Shaq is going to angle for a trade to Oklahoma City unless and until Durant has established himself as one of the greatest players of his generation (or of all time) and title-less seasons in Oklahoma City are an unexpected letdown. The Thunder is not likely to get to that point in the next six years, although contention for titles could be here as soon as next spring.
(And let’s not get started on accusing me of hating Oklahoma City. I live here and love it here. I know few people who have come here and disliked it, and I know many people who have come here and been pleasantly surprised at how far OKC exceeds their expectations. But let’s be real. If LeBron had trouble luring free agents to Cleveland, KD will face similar trouble luring them here.)
So how did the Spurs and Trailblazers do it? They drafted their stars. Portland had Bill Walton early in his career, but couldn’t keep him or the rest of its core together. The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan (and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili), kept their core signed to reasonable contracts and used trades and smart signings to bring in quality role players. The result was more than one title, unlike the Blazers.
Presti cut his teeth in San Antonio, and the Spurs are undoubtedly the model the Thunder is trying to follow. Every move so far has focused on the future and on building a competitive core, and Presti capitalizes on other teams’ mistakes and excess to ensure a flexible roster going forward. He knows it’s the only way the Thunder can elevate into the league’s upper stratosphere.
In Durant, Oklahoma City obviously drafted a guy who appears capable of being the best player on a championship team. Russell Westbrook appears capable of being the second-best player on a title team, and certainly the third-best. If the Thunder has another player on the roster now who could ascend into that upper echelon, it’s Serge Ibaka, but it’s hard to tell if he’s already near his ceiling. Despite a likely dearth of high draft picks in coming (50-win) seasons, you have to like Presti’s chances of finding the right formula for long-term contention. He’s given fans no reason to suspect otherwise.
But Durant will be 27 by the end of the 2015-16 season, and 28 by the start of the next one. If somehow the Thunder can’t get over the hump — like the Cavs haven’t — or at least feel good about the way it competed in late-round playoffs losses — the Cavs didn’t — it might be tough to convince Durant to play the waning years of his prime in Oklahoma City. Of the (non-Thunder) teams that seem best positioned to compete for titles over the next six seasons (Miami, the Lakers, Boston, Orlando, Chicago), only Orlando hasn’t won a title in Durant’s lifetime. If he’s 27 and been in the league for nine years, don’t you think he’d notice that the same teams keep winning?
We know Durant will put in nonstop effort every game and every offseason in each of the next six years. We know he’ll give Oklahoma City everything he’s got, on and off the court. That’s why, if the Thunder can’t get to the top of the mountain, he could look in the mirror in 2016 and truthfully say to himself that he did everything he could do to win a title with the Thunder and that he doesn’t owe it to fans to slog though the remaining years of his prime and watch the same teams lift banners to the rafters in the same arenas, year after year, without him.
And as long as Durant treated us right, by tearfully thanking us and acknowledging how hard it was to leave, we’d have to let him go without setting fire to his jerseys in the streets. Nine years would be enough to prove definitively that it either can or can’t be done with this franchise in this city and this model of team-building.
The basketball gods delivered Tim Duncan to San Antonio, and the Spurs made it work. Oklahoma City has the same opportunity with another gift in Durant. In six more seasons, we’ll see if it worked out here.
If it doesn’t, at least we’ll know Durant’s heart is as broken as ours that it didn’t. Cleveland fans can’t say the same.
@justin
Wade is telling everyone that he wants the Heat to keep Haslem. Riley says the situation is "fluid."
You guys have a good thing here in OKC, but don't think it can't turn. Three years in to the LeBron era, Cleveland won 50 games too. Four years in, we were in the finals. 6-7 years in, we were winning 60+ games. IT can all change that quickly. It seems awesome now and like things will only continue to go up, but that only holds true until they start to go down. No doubt Durant is simply wired differently than James. He is humble..LeBron never was. He just wants to win and play ball..LeBron always wanted more. But, it's NEVER a sure thing to last as long as you think it should. Just keep that in mind.
Good call that'd be a nice pickup for them.
thin*
@justin
Utah should give him a look. Their frontcourt is razor thing, doesn't he seem like a Sloan guy?
I wonder where Udonis Haslem will go.
Johnson vs. Thomas is an interesting comparison.
justin :Ryan Gomes got three years, $12 million. Thabo probably would have gotten a lot more than that coming off 2nd All Defense team. Presti looks good locking him up.
No kidding. That contract is DIRT cheap. If Thabo could just discover a 3-pt shot, he'd have quite a bit of trade value. Better yet, even more value to this team.
Ryan Gomes got three years, $12 million. Thabo probably would have gotten a lot more than that coming off 2nd All Defense team. Presti looks good locking him up.
I'd say it's the market . . .
and I'd take Johnson over Thomas - you can have gooden . . .
I wonder what Thabo would have gotten in RFA.
Amir Johnson got 5/35 and Drew Gooden got 5/32. Thomas is better than both of them. 5/40 is a good price for Thomas in this market. Charlotte couldn't afford to lose him after they gave up a future 1st for the guy.
You could say the market is screwed up but relative to what his peers got I don't think ti's that bad.
we can agree to disagree on Thomas - I dont think he does enough to warrant that much cash - he hasnt developed like people thought coming out of college . . .
I think 5/40 is the type of deal Green would get in the open market. I wouldn't give him that to play here though.
@Kev
Ty Thomas is a good defensive player / weakside guy / rebounder. He's only 23. The $12 million this year doesn't kill them, they had no cap space, so $7 million isn't bad for him in the following years for what he does for them.
@Kev
it is really weakening the owners arguments for the CBA, they are the reason why they are not making money, not the players, if they just had some self control.
Just don't like big signings that just keep the status quo - it's like the Gay signing, they pay him all that money to remain mediocre - doesnt make sense . . .
Name: Willie
Can we please have an all-Cleveland mailbag? I'm 30 and was openly weeping for the past 20 minutes. this is a stomach punch mixed with a groin kick with an open handed slap.
City: Cleveland
Nets were rumored to be courting him. I don't think CHA could afford to lose Thomas...
@Kev
i meant some other team.
f5alcon :did the bobcats pay thomas that much or somebody else?
Thomas . . .
City: Chicago
Name: Ron
I think we're realizing that LeBron was never made up of the same stuff as Kobe or MJ. And the things that we saw him doing in the future were things that we wanted for him, because of his transcendent skills. But in the end, he just didn't want those things. He was abandoned as a kid, if you see his high school documentary, you see all he wants to do is be a part of something, not be something. He just wants to be a part of a group and be wanted. We've just all along wished he was wired for greatness. He's not. And it's a shame.
----
I don't like that reasoning b/c this is a guy that got "Chosen One" tattooed across his back. He started the "King James" nickname.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100709
Simmons latest article on Lebron. I love this e-mail:
City: Oakland
Name: Frank
I'm trying to figure out where I've had a feeling like this before. Then I remembered: This reminds me of Hulk Hogan at the moment he drops the big boot on the Macho Man Randy Savage to team with the Outsiders (Scott Hall and Kevin Nash) and essentially form the nWo. These are the only two times when I have said to myself "No! Why are you doing this! Evil! Evil! EVILLLL!"
did the bobcats pay thomas that much or somebody else?
@justin
thats awesome that he did that, most vindictive owner
dont like paying 8 mil for a guy that is not really a starter . . . I know some bench guys get that much,but to me you can get similar production at cheaper prices . . .
Kev :he’s WAY overpaid . . .
I dunno, I don't think it's that bad. Obviously $12 million is a lot, but $7 million a year is decent for Thomas.
Dan Gilbert, LOL:
"And for this new generation of LBJ haters there also are bargain prices available on LeBron Fatheads -- at least those of him in a Cavaliers uniform. They have been marked down drastically on the Fathead website, from $99.99 to $17.41.
It's no coincidence that Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert is the driving financial force behind Fathead. The $17.41 price isn't random either, because 1741 is the birth year of the first traitor of note in American history, Benedict Arnold."
he's WAY overpaid . . .
$12 million in the first year and $7 million in the next four. Not bad for Thomas, IMO.
Tyrus Thomas just got a 5/40 deal heavily front loaded.
@Kyle
or just go after the generation after that and start trying to have lots of kids with female athletes
OMG!!
Did I just see Justin and the Don agree on something?
This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions. Real wrath of God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes... The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
I think the expectations are getting a bit too high. Top Five team int he league would require a big improvement on offense. I hope that happens!
Also, from an article on ESPN asking the experts about the impact of the Lebron/Wade/Bosh triumvirate, take a look at the expert's rankings.
"3. Rank the NBA's top five teams going into the 2010-11 season.
Abbott: 1. Lakers; 2. Magic; 3. Heat; 4. Spurs; 5. Celtics
Adande: 1. Lakers; 2. Celtics; 3. Magic; 4. Heat; 5. Thunder
Arnovitz: 1. Heat; 2. Lakers; 3. Magic; 4. Celtics; 5. Rockets
Ford: 1. Lakers; 2. Heat; 3. Magic; 4. Mavericks; 5. Celtics
Hollinger: 1. Lakers; 2. Magic; 3. Heat; 4. Thunder; 5. Celtics
Sheridan: 1. Lakers; 2. Heat; 3. Celtics; 4. Thunder; 5. Rockets
Stein: 1. Lakers; 2. Heat; 3. Celtics; 4. Magic; 5. Thunder/Bulls"
Yup, four of the seven have us in the top 5 teams in the league.
@Grolgar
Read your quote after mine, but glad we think alike, we need to get this going
KD mentioned Thunder U in his chat today as well...
Royce, we NEED to get treeandleaf on this shirt idea, SO many options with it.
I'm starting to wonder if all the negative pub Lebron is getting might help dissuade KD from heading somewhere else in the future (assuming we're still a half-way decent team).
"Thunder U" is like "Thunder Up" without the "p".
The other day, I heard KD refer to winning a championship as "win a chip"
So now I can say things like "Come to Thunder U so you can learn how to win a chip.", and nobody in my circle will have any idea what I'm saying.
What am I saying?
I'm not sure. But did you notice "Thunder U" is like "Thunder Up" without the "p"? Groovy, eh?
Frootloop :
Grolgar :@f5alcon I would figure we have some, but it might be a market that could be tapped into more. OKC is a small market. Any chances to expand that market could be very helpful to the program.
I’ve always thought: If you’re relevant, they’ll watch you even if you play for Alaska. If you aren’t, you could play in a huge city and be ignored (hello Clippers).
Market sizes aren’t too important. The real market is the universal fan. The guy in China who watches the “relevant teams” etc.
Chicago didn’t make the Bulls. Jordan made the Bulls by making them relevant.
Agree completely. Can't argue either with KD fresh off of a scoring title going and being in the press for a few weeks in China. He was a recognizable enough name to draw curiousity, so now when fans tune in they will recognize him, the team, and hopefully see us winning a lot of games. Would instantly create a semi-fan base. Let's get some Thunder gear over there!
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a78/nursetpd/TSB/A_Tale_of_Two_Cities.gif
I'll just leave this here. :)
Something funny to think about:
Say we can't get KD a title, and he gracefully leaves. We go through the reconstruction stage, probably fall a bit and get a high draft pick like some teams do after this situation.
It's 7/8 years later, we have the #1 pick... some 11/12 year old kid right now could be our next cornerstone.
Next time you hear about the local middle school superstar, make sure you follow up on him! haha
Grolgar :@f5alcon I would figure we have some, but it might be a market that could be tapped into more. OKC is a small market. Any chances to expand that market could be very helpful to the program.
I've always thought: If you're relevant, they'll watch you even if you play for Alaska. If you aren't, you could play in a huge city and be ignored (hello Clippers).
Market sizes aren't too important. The real market is the universal fan. The guy in China who watches the "relevant teams" etc.
Chicago didn't make the Bulls. Jordan made the Bulls by making them relevant.
@KJ
Love that! LSU Freek strikes again!
KJ :
The difference between James and KD
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a78/nursetpd/TSB/A_Tale_of_Two_Cities.gif
This is.......GLORIOUS
Not sure if y'all saw it, but KD finished his chat with this:
KD: I appreciate all the questions, i really appreciate all the support...i look forward to seeing you all on campus at Thunder University lol....Thanks again!!!
A Thunder University shirt is inevitable now. That is two mentions by KD.
@KJ
We are rocky and they are drago
The difference between James and KD
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a78/nursetpd/TSB/A_Tale_of_Two_Cities.gif
shaq burned a lot of bridges in miami when he left, not so sure he can fix those
@Grolgar
yeah i agree, though we really pull the whole state of oklahoma, so our market size is a bit deceiving
@Bryan
i hope it does nothing would please me more then watching lebron cry in the ford center after losing in the finals.
@Mark!
As Kobe blatantly pointed out. The very first thing he said after he won that title.