Daily Thunder reader, commenter and professional scientist Andy Collard is an advanced basketball metrics expert. He’s going to be sharing some Thunder thoughts centered around advanced stats during the season and here he starts with a retrospective on KD’s historical performance in Turkey.
While watching KD hit those two 3 pointers in a row to start the second half of the FIBA finals, my first reaction was to flip out. After I finished yelling ecstatic profanities and then assuring my girlfriend that I didn’t have Tourette’s Syndrome, I got to wondering just how great his finals performance was. It was clear Durant was playing better than Danny Granger, Chauncy Billups and even Ersan Ilyasova, but I wanted to put KD’s performance in a larger context.
Over at Basketball Reference’s blog they had a great post of advanced stats for the 2010 US team, the Redeem Team and the 1994 US team, the last to win a World Championship. KD’s overall numbers stack up great compared to everyone there, save Reggie Miller, who went OFF during those 1994 world championships (61% FG, 53% 3pt, 95% FT for a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 83.7%… which is just unreal. Only Artis Gilmore has ever posted a TS% above even 70 for an NBA season).
I was more curious about the individual game performances, though, because as we saw the huge blowouts can mean so little after the first quarter and those stats are largely irrelevant. So I decided to use John Hollinger’s game score metric to quantify and put into context the sweetness of KD in the world championship. Hollinger’s game score is in effect a single-game replacement for his PER (player efficiency rating), because his formula is too complex to be used for a single game. The formula is:
Game Score = (PTS) + (0.4 x FGM) – (0.7 x FGA) – (0.4 x (FTA-FTM)) + ( 0.7 x OREB) + ( 0.3 x DREB) + STL + (0.7 xAST ) + (0.7 x BLK) – (0.4 x PF) – TO
As you can see the game score takes into account how much you score, how efficiently you score those points, and just about every other basic box score stat to estimate how dominant a single game is. It’s designed to be roughly the same scale as points per game, ie. a game score of 40 is amazing, 20 is good, 10 is ho-hum. There are also a few differences between FIBA and NBA basketball that I have to acknowledge. First, the stat takers are much more stingy about assists, which I decided to do nothing about. Second the games are eight minutes shorter. I wrestled whether or not to account for this, because KD played about 38 minutes in each of his impressive FIBA games anyway. Eventually I decided to multiply the FIBA game scores by 48/40, because the fact that he played all but 2 minutes of those games was one of the most impressive parts.
So I compiled a by-no-means comprehensive list of impressive single game performances in the World Championships, and decided to see where KD stacked up. I used the FIBA archives for all the data.
Player/Opp./Yr. Game Score Pts FG/FGA 3P/3PA FT/FTA ORB DRB MIN/Total MIN
Scola v. Brazil '10 39.84 37 14/20 1/1 8/9 4 5 38/40
Durant v. GSW '09 (NBA) 39.8 45 16/21 2 /3 11/11 3 8 40/48
C. Anthony v. ITA '06 36.36 35 13/18 5/7 4/7 2 3 35/40
Durant v. LTU '10 36.24 38 14/25 5/12 5/5 1 8 38/40
Durant v. SAS '09 (NBA) 35.2 45 15/24 1/4 14/15 0 8 42/48
D. Wade v. ARG '06 32.76 32 13/17 3/3 3/4 2 1 35/40
R. Miller v. AUS '94 32.52 31 9/10 5/6 8/8 0 3 20/40
Durant v. Russia '10 32.28 33 11/19 3/8 8/9 0 5 37/40
R. Miller v. PUR '94 31.92 28 9/12 8/11 2/2 1 2 24/40
Shaq v. PUR '94 28.44 29 12/16 0/1 5/7 2 5 18/40
D. Wade v. ESP '08 27.84 27 9/12 4/7 5/7 0 2 27/40
So what should we take away from these numbers? Well, the pessimist would say that Durant didn’t even have the most dominating performance in the tournament, which would in fact be true. Scola’s 37 points on 20 shots was a pretty amazing performance, especially against a super solid Brazilian front court. There’s no shame in KD not topping that. He does compare favorably to some of the most dominant performances of World Championships past. Its obviously hard to compare scenarios, with different teammates and opponents for each game, but based on these numbers, at least, Durant was on par or better than D. Wade, LeBron and Melo in their world championship quest 4 years ago.
The best thing I take away from this is how well KD played compared to his most dominant games of the ’09 season. He played two of his best games of the last year in the past two weeks, when it mattered most, on one of the biggest stages in the world. This was a huge contrast to his playoff performance, which, although courageous and relentless, definitely was never statistically strong or efficient. Durant showed us this time that he can and will perform in high pressure situations. I think that’s what really matters, and honestly, its pretty freaking sweet.
@DSMok1
How do you propose measuring that? I can't think of anything very solid. I presume something along the lines of comparing offensive ratings in the NBA and FIBA for players that competed in both? That seems the only way to compare the two. It isn't even exact, due to the 3 point arc, trapezoid, different goaltending rules, and the ability to use zone. But the biggest problem I see is player role differences.
It seems like it would be hard to differentiate between differences in the effect of a player's new role in an offense and the effect of the level of play in the two leagues. Such as Lamar Odom being a starting center instead of a backup power forward, or the opposite, as Westbrook going from starting point guard to essentially backup shooting guard. I know that offensive rating largely accounts for minutes/usage, but it wouldn't account for your assigned responsibility in an offense to shoot vs. pass vs. drive vs. get offensive rebounds or diminishing returns at a higher usage.
I don't know if over a large sample size these differences would even out, or if they would skew the results one way or the other.
justin :It’d be weird if Cole Aldrich is able to crack the starting rotation when Westbrook / Harden both weren’t able to out of the gates (and Jeff Green for that matter).
I see Westbrook, Harden, and Aldrich's situations much differently.
PG is a major play making position. Westbrook needed to polish up his knowledge of that position. Plus that was PJ's decision.
Harden basically was drafted to address shooting needs (which can be accompished off the bench). Also the previous season the Thunder acquired Sefolosha at the 2. Even though their games are vastly different there was some serious competion for that spot.
You could even try to mention Ibaka, but he needed to learn a new language and the NBA game (instead of FIBA).
IMO Aldrich has a good chance at starting. He is a proven rebounder and shot blocker. In my mind his only competion would be Ibaka (but many people think that Ibaka can't play Center).
Awesome write up. Good to see KD's performance in this light. Also saw this article on KD yesterday. Durant followers will like it. It's on why he's so dayam good! http://bit.ly/9o7ZGo
Nicely done, AC! The quality of competition in FIBA is lower, so that should be a major part of why the game score went up so much. I was going to do a study on what the difference was, but I never have. I think it is fairly significant--I think the average FIBA team at the worlds was something like the New Jersey Nets, and even the best FIBA team outside of USA (Turkey) was probably only close to NBA average.
It'd be weird if Cole Aldrich is able to crack the starting rotation when Westbrook / Harden both weren't able to out of the gates (and Jeff Green for that matter).
@Keith
Or better yet, Aldrich rakes in training camp and begins the season as the starter with Krstic working his way into playing shape. Then it becomes Aldrich's job to lose. It's likely wishful thinking, but a possibility I suppose.
@Joe
Keith got the reasoning exactly. Turnovers and personal fouls were also lost in the formatting, but they are lesser reasons.
And while I don't think my 48/40 multiplier is a perfect way to compare FIBA to NBA games, I would say Scola's performance was better, after taking into account external factors. Golden State is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, while Brazil's frontcourt of Varejao and Splitter is as tough a matchup of defensive bigs as you'll find anywhere.
@Sammy
If he's only just going to be ready, maybe he begins the season from the bench. Not necessarily saying we have a better option or that Krstic is a trainwreck, but Green-Collison and Ibaka-Krstic have always seemed like more complementary pairings.
Sammy :
Mayberry reporting Krstic had surgery on his finger. Should miss camp but be ready for the opener, apparently.
May not be a bad thing. His legs probably could use as much rest as possible.
bad time to take that picture
Mayberry reporting Krstic had surgery on his finger. Should miss camp but be ready for the opener, apparently.
@Joe
His method included minutes played/total minutes. Scola's performance came in a 40 minute game, and AC thus gave a 20% bump to Scola's statistics. If you take away that advantage, then yes Durant's performance would rate higher. And while I understand the reasoning behind that adjustment, I don't think he is claiming it to be perfect.
I have to say that KD's game was better also. He only played 2 more minute's than Scola's game - which in the scheme of things shouldn't afford Scola a 20% increase in stats. Further, KD's shots were all at NBA distances against a good defensive team in the NBA. I certainly don't have his shot chart from that game, but I imagine KD would have had more points in a FIBA game (or Scola less at NBA 3 pt range). And given the extremely minute difference in game score, just the distance alone probably would have given KD the game.
much rather would have written an article about Serge’s birthday in Barcelona
I'll go with you when you get that assignment next year, carry your bags and everything. Great article, Thx.
Nice write up AC; I dig stuff like this.
One thing I don't get. How is it that KD has 45 points on 21 shots and is perfect from the line but that performance is less than Scola's who used 20 shots and only got 37 points and wasn't perfect from the line?
It may have a lo to do with the other stats that are cut off the page, but I am curious. I'm not a PER or Hollinger guy, but I still think his stuff is relevant.
Nice write up.
Good post, AC. Math really isn't my "forte" (I can barely remember my age half the time) so props to those that excel in this area.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Nice intro, man. Mine would go like this:
Daily Thunder reader and commenter, Cpt. Cnote, is NOT a normal dude. He will never, ever write an article for DT because he rarely has anything intelligent to say and can't spell w/o spell-check. Alas, he knows his place and might make you laugh...maybe. GO THUNDER!
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Haha, I am definitely at more of a YMCA level than NCAA level in terms of basketball. I was unfortunate enough to be good at a sport much less fun to do and much, much less popular (rowing/crew).
Good to know that I'm not the only person with Thunder Tourette’s. Very nice article as well.
Look at how many of Durant's games are on that list. It's one thing to have a great game...it's another to have multiple awesome games in the same tournament. An outstanding performance for Durant is not an outlier (as statics gurus like to call anomalies). He brought it every game and it shows.
I just did these calculations roughly but it appears that Gelabale's marks on eFG% and TS% were a couple points higher than Durant's. Certainly not saying he is better of course.
Agreeing with the point that the World Championships is not the NBA. Gelabale shot and scored well there, more so against the weak than the stronger teams of the later rounds. Will he get back to the NBA and is he NBA caliber again? I don't know. Those stats aren't enough but they are something that could be considered. If they get used for other purposes.
Gelabale cooled off in the later rounds a fair amount but still ended up with an eFG% of about 67% and a TS% of about 70%.
Great job. Nice to see KD's performance put into this kind of perspective. I agree that this bodes well for his future playoff success.
Daily Thunder reader, commenter and professional scientist Andy Collard is an advanced basketball metrics expert. He’s going to be sharing some Thunder thoughts centered around advanced stats during the season...
That's a pretty cool intro. Kudos on being smart. If Royce were to write an intro for me, it would probably look something like this...
Daily Thunder reader and commenter, Jax, is just a normal dude. The fact that he's writing an article for this blog means it's August, and he blackmailed me.
Anyway, I thought you had some experience "playing basketball at a high level", is that true? (Pardon me for borrowing a phrase from the ultimate who shall not be named). If so, I'm interested to hear the perspective of advanced stats from a basketball player.
This blog is lucky to have several advanced stat commenters on the roll-call.
@JWade99
Agreed. And I feel very confident in all of your proposed points becoming realities.
Thanks for the article. Looking forward to more!
First off, I'm the author of the post. I haven't really decided if I'll be changing my commenting name. Apologies for the lateness in terms of relevance.@JWade99
I agree that the team should get more credit and more attention, but the fact is that we had a lot of exposure to Durant and Westbrook this summer, but not a lot to the other guys save Summer League.
I much rather would have written an article about Serge's birthday in Barcelona with Marcus Camby, Jason Terry, and Vlad Radmanovic(???)(http://twitpic.com/2ppu4x), but I unfortunately didn't have much access. I did have a lot of access to ESPN3.com and the Fiba historical archives, so I wrote this article instead.
@Greg
I 100% agree he is an incredible player. I also agree he has downplayed ALL of this attention. All I was trying to say is:
1) KD-Please stay as humble as you are now.
2) Thunder Players-Focus not on all the attention paid to KD. Follow KD's lead, focus on the team.
3) Everyone-Relax. Our team has an average age of 23. All this hype this quick is setting us (fans) for disappointment. ONE STEP/YEAR at a time.
GO THUNDER!
Good use of stats.
@JWade99
If anything, Durant has attempted to downplay all this media hype soley about him. I think the rest of the team knows Durant well enough to know that he isn't igniting the over-hype flame (like LeBron has a tendency to do). Durant has tried to control all the exposure, but there's really not much he can do when he's such an incredible basketball player.
I realize KD is a once every 10-20 talent. I also recognize he has TREMENDOUS potential. What makes me a bit leery, all the focus from the media on KD and not the team. Let us all remember, this is a team game. KD wouldn't be able to do what he does without the other 4 players on the court with him. I wish people would tone it down a bit with the KD love affair. The Thunder (ENTIRE TEAM) has yet to accomplish anything other than ONE winning season. Is it possible the rest of the team, at some point, gets tired of only hearing about KD and not enough about the TEAM.
Chemistry is important to this franchise. All the focus on ONE player can disrupt that chemistry. I hope KD stays humble and the other players realize it's the media and commentary like this, and not Kevin, that are causing all the ruckus.
Very nice write up. By far the best thing about Turkey was watching Durant and Westbrook's ability to perform under pressure.