This is the one we’ve been waiting to do for a long time. Kevin Pelton, from Basketball Prospectus and co-author of the new book “Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-2011” joins the guys on the podcast. We talk definitively about Jeff Green, discuss why Eric Maynor may be trade bait next year and how KD and Russ can make further improvements on their game.
Many “hot button” issues to discuss coming out of this interview with Pelton, so post your thoughts…even if it’s to join with Brad in ripping Joel for his “self love”.
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Cousins, Wall, Johnson you say say good things about but after that...
@f5alcon
It could lead to less Green minutes or less Collison minutes or some of both.
I started out last season saying this past draft was weak and gradually came to think it was better, It could swing again but there is not much strong in the 1st round rookies' pre-seasons so far.
I think what could affect greens minutes the most is aldrich, if he plays well, than krstic and him should chew up most of the mins at center and force collison to play the four more, which should lead to less green minutes.
Shooting is probably his 3rd job but Ibaka was below 40% eFG% only 18 times. As a rookie Green was below 40% eFG% 38 times. Different sized roles and different level of pressure of course but still that is a big difference. Should Ibaka get a vote of even greater faith than so far and at PF? Defense is always part of it with him, Harden or Green.
When Harden was held below 20 minutes he did shot worse and play worse overall but that is not unusual. Harden shot under 40% eFG% about 30 times overall so he probably deserved some hooks. But Green did 25 times. Not that different in performance on this and yet vastly different minute allocations and management principles.
Maybe it will be different this season if Ibaka is determined to be reliable and if he really is.
When given 30+ minutes Harden was much better than with less minutes, like most players. But it might be worth noting that he was far better when given 30+ minutes as a rookie than Green was in the same circumstance and better between 20-30 minutes as well.
Harden was held to under 20 minutes 27 times. He got 30 minutes just 7 times. Did they learn from the Green experience or are they using different policies? Are the different policies appropriate? How will they run it with him this season?
@justin
I think I understand what you meant regarding interpreting stuff and trying to be objective and appreciate the help in explaining the issue and my part in it while I moved to dealing with something else. I was mainly using your phrase as a springboard to going further rather a direct reply to you specifically and probably should have left the @justin out this time. Folks can look at my stuff or any stuff objectively or with a prior disposition as they wish and think best. My content will vary some between most objective and somewhat more partisan but I try to base my "partisan" perspectives on objective analysis.
What they have gotten out of Green has come out of showing faith. What would or could come from something different is fairly unclear because it hasn't been tried much to date. No contract extension would seem to take the issue into somewhat new territory but if the minutes stay at 35-37 a game or even 32 I am not sure how different things really are. Some more 20-25 minutes games or DNPs would be more different than the past. Green had 4 games below 25 minutes last season. Was that enough or ultimately the best policy? What about this season?
@Crow
I meant seeing what I wanted to see insofar as interpreting your commentary. I try to be unbiased when I evaluate stuff...
I meant to say 30+ minutes on a 50 win team usually comes "with" strong performance. 30 minutes often comes as a result of strong performance in less than than 30 minutes too but not always. often the strong performance comes with getting the 30 minutes as opposed to just 20-25.
Mark! or someone else recently had a chart on Thunder player various minute levels by week or month into their career. I don't think it compared it to performance.
I was not sure if Green's performance moved up any to really justified the minute increases his rookie season or if he was essentially just given them. I think the latter is probably the more accurate general description. But let's check the stats. Using one source it appears Green's minutes went from an already quite large for a brand new rookie of 23-24 minutes a game in November and December to 28 in January while his performance went down from November to December and December to January. But the performance went up Feb. to April so I guess the investment eventually paid off in that sense, to the degree that it did. However by April his rookie season he was getting 37 minutes a game and his stats were below average to well below for that level of minutes commitment depending on what you used.
His second season he essentially got 35+ minutes every month. He pushed to new peaks in performance but ended the season barely above where he was in December of his rookie season. In his 3rd season he was basically the same as year 2 for the season but again he finished April playing his worst ball. Maybe he played too much. I think he did.
Year 4 it is probably time to settle the question.
Part of the perspective for me is raw and / or Adjusted +/-/ He dpes poor on that.
Still you can ask does he bring anything that no one else can bring as well. Yes for certain situations but I can't see moving from that to a strong case for the huge minutes that apparently internal dialog was never seriously challenged to date.
@justin
A lot of folks "see what they want to see". You can do that with stats too. Being fairly objective, however you manage it, is a pretty good habit though for frequent use. Being completely objective, putting aside the past accumulation of what you "know" or think you know about a player or team or anything might not be possible or that desirable. Dance between using what you think you know and suspending that prior dispostition at least for a moment.
@Brad
I was leaving "deserves the minutes" up for discussion. Some times, many times if I lead with my opinion the topic doesn't go far or anywhere.
I was content at the time to make a few factual observations related to the topic. Often you can guess more than that and often you might be right but sometimes I am being restrained on purpose for one reason or another.
I would say at minimum Green did not fully justify his huge minutes to date. I've said it sharper and more negative before many times.
But in the end somebody has to step up and make it obvious to Presti and Brooks to make a change (not to me, Justin or others here) or they will continue the same way.
@Brad
That's just what I think he meant, sometimes I see what I want to see. :)
@justin
Ahh, just misread his post. Fair enough.
@Brad
I think what Crow meant is that Brooks was unusually tolerant of poor play from Jeff Green, especially compared to other players like Harden, Ibaka, and even Westbrook at times.
@justin
Agreed, no argument here. My question was to Crow and more rhetorical in nature. The point he made was that 30+ minutes on a 50 win team usually comes as the result of strong performace. But my question was more to show that 30+ minutes a game doesn't guarantee that a player deserved the minutes, even if in most cases it's a sign that their play is worthy of the extra playing time.
@justin
Ouch. Stop making sense Justin :O)
Brad :No one is arguing that he’s not getting a lot of minutes, the question is whether those minutes are deserved.
Just to expound on this: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=uYOH5
346 players played 3000+ minutes in a season in the last twenty years. Jeff Green had the eleventh worst PER of them all.
This combined with his awful +/-, and I don't know how one can defend the amount of minutes he gets especially if it continues this season, with the depth we now have in the front court.
Brad :No one is arguing that he’s not getting a lot of minutes, the question is whether those minutes are deserved.
No, they aren't.
No one is arguing that he's not getting a lot of minutes, the question is whether those minutes are deserved.
Crow :
Over 30 minutes a game on a 50 win team usually comes with pretty strong performance. If you aren’t quite as strong you often get 20- 28 minutes instead on these teams.
So do his minutes really reflect strong performances to you?
Over 30 minutes a game on a 50 win team usually comes with pretty strong performance. If you aren't quite as strong you often get 20- 28 minutes instead on these teams.
“Jeff Green was a part of the 50 win team”...
Who else played 30+ minutes per game on a 50 win team and gets or deserves modest praise or a decent amount of scrutiny?
Vince Carter, several Mavs (Terry, Butler and Marion), Richard jefferson are the main names that come to mind though some might add others.
Adjusted +/- for lineups and sub-units overcomes a lot of the teammate / opponent variations that affect the raw data. The results I can see immediately are scattered. Need more testing and then probably tighter selection.
Westbrook Harden Durant Ibaka Collison was their playoff best so use that a lot and avoid the variations that pulled down the average. Probably especially Harden without KD did that.
He is probably no better than alright so far with Ibaka.
Harden was in one of the 3 top playoff groupings I listed, the one that did not have Green. You can have #2, 3 and 4 close together but who is #2 is often important in close games or in the long run. Team chemistry and spending choices often require to know who is #2 but it is not unambiguously clear all the time. There is often fancy footwork and speaking to manage the egos.
Harden's best pairs were Westbrook Durant and Collison. Same old story there. He is not bad with Green, just not nearly as good as the first 3. Not immediately sure about him with Ibaka. He is only neutral with Maynor.
With Hardin the question probably isn't so much does he go to 30+ minutes (though the timing is unclear and debated) but does he go to #2 scoring option and how fast.
Plenty that can be done without the highest level of sophistication.
But you could also ask what % of analysis done and actually used involves work that requires a Master's or PhD? I'd guess it is low outside of at most a few places and even there the I wonder about the actual impact of the highly intense statistical analysis. It is a pretty big question.
More good & sensible analysis probably would yield better results but it requires the right analysis, access / influence and the right users.
But how advanced they go on their own is hard to say. Do they run their own regressions, develop statistically sound models or use advanced stat software directly? Cho has more math background for that. Presti was political science or pre-law I believe.
@Joe
They both did and probably still do a lot of their own stuff (Cho is confirmed, Presti likely) but both have analytic staff and consultants now too.
I found it interesting that Presti and Cho both seem to do their own statistical analysis in lieu of having a staff or a stat guru do it for them.
Hope they use that quad more like 8-10 minutes this season than 2. 15 minutes a game or more might or might not work exactly the same but there is a basis for wondering and trying it.
Westbrook Durant Collison the only entry to the post-season top 50 for trios.
Durant - Ibaka and Collison - Durant were 49th and 50th on post-season pairs. No Westbrook when looking at team level results despite his strong series.
Collsion and Ibaka finished 28th and 29th on raw team +/- in the post season. No other Thunder players.
Do you think they should emphasize Westbrook Durant Ibaka Collison especially when it counts most?
Brooks used it less than 2 minutes a game in the regular season. 8.5 minute per game in the playoffs was a a noticeable improvement (and a sign of some recognition system working to a degree) but there was plenty more room to go further, perhaps despite Collison's shooting woes then.
The raw +/- tool at nba.com notes that the Lakers had a clean sweep in the post-season with the best 1, 2, 3 4 and 5 man lineups when you looked at cumulative team +/- (not rate). the winner has an advantage... but that advantage helps them win.
The Thunder had 2 top 50 5 man lineups
Westbrook Harden Durant Ibaka Collison (good for 20th).
Westbrook Sefolosha Durant Green Collison (35th)
On 4 man lineups Durant Westbrook Ibaka Collison was 40th and the only entry to the top 50 of that.
Chemistry matters.
Westbrook Durant Collison were in all 3 good lineups.
Ibaka was the only other guy to show up more than once. with Collison each time.
One technique I use based on offensive and defensive efficiency compared to league average suggests that last season the Thunder got about 8 games better than .500 because of their defense and about 2 games better because of their offense. They slipped 2 games back because of luck and / youth.
3 pt FG% is more important but quantity matters some too. They are high on 3 pt FG% but near average on quantity of 3s attempted. That is far better than last season's 23rd place on attempts though and that is a positive sign. Though again as I discussed in the last thread it is significant how much they let 3 point shooting deteriorate in the name of going inside. They've stayed high on FTAs in the pre-season. Not sure about inside shots though. I guess it probably could be found from pre-season game shot charts but I'll probably wait til the real season to check it more easily. Inside shots are best, 3 pt shots next, mid-range by far the worst. The FG% of inside and mid-range shots combined at league level and for the Thunder are pretty similar to the 3 pt FG%s. The FTAs are the big bonus that make going inside as much as you can smart. But big inside game + big 3 pt game is the best strategy.
@justin
I guess I don't like picking out just one thing to look at. I mean, yes, our 3 point shooting has been better, but looking at the individual numbers, I'm not sure how much it helps. Our numbers have been increased most significantly by Cook/Peterson (players who probably won't even play a lot of the time) and a one-night show from Green (who has always been terribly inconsistent). Does that really make our 3 point shooting better? I'm encouraged by Harden, and Thabo's minor injury may pave the way for his starting. But that's my only real hope.
And then on the other side, we haven't been defending terribly well nor executing well. Really no unit has consistently. Maybe that's shaking off the rust of an offseason where most guys didn't play in real games, but maybe we are regressing without Adams. Despite our offensive deficiency last year, it is still more important that our defense stay elite.
@Keith
Well yeah. I think if there's anything positive to take from the preseason so far it's the 3pt shooting, though.
@justin
And yet we've shot worse than every NBA opponent overall in the three games we played. I've not been impressed with our preseason, and am hoping that it doesn't mean much in the regular season.
The team is shooting 44.4% from 3pt range this preseason.
I like Harden a lot more than Maynor because he's a couple years younger and I like his skillset more.
It happened earlier on earlier podcasts for me too so it is probably my system or connection. If nobody else had the problem then it was just my system.
@Brad
It was probably just my clunky system but it happened part way thru the what price Green discussion. Not sure the exact time or what was still left.
Fun conversation this week. I liked that there was a little more definite feelings expressed on Jeff and the rest of the guys. Is he a good player in general? Yeah. Does his value match his perceived role? No. I would bring him back for 6th man money, but not more at this point.
I think a very interesting comment made was when it was asked what players outside KD and Westbrook are completely out of trade conversations. Ibaka was mentioned as a maybe, but quickly added "But he's so undeveloped I'm not sure." I think that is the proper take on Ibaka. He definitely has tremendous talent, but he also has some serious shortcomings that need to be taken into account. I would keep Ibaka as long as I could, but I wouldn't hesitate trading him if it landed us an already established frontcourt stud.
This season should say a lot about our future hopes for the next 10 years. Either we have the pieces to contend and we do, or we don't have the pieces and Presti shows us if we are willing to go out and get them.
Thanks for the feedback and thoughts guys!@justin@Crow
What specifically makes you more excited about Harden then Maynor?
Weird that it cut off, mind telling me at what time it cut?
I think it is worth noting that one of the main enhancements made to Pelton's WARP2 was giving 3 point shooters credit beyond the actual value of their 3 point scoring because of the positive impact that 3 point scorers were shown to have in regression results beyond the basic stats,
What is his Thunder win projection? I haven't heard it yet,
He picked the Lakers 8th. That wasn't pursued on the podcast other than saying he let the system go where the numbers said it should go. I think the Lakers are past peak and will slip some but I don't that it will be quite as much this season.
I wish there had been time for more Ibaka talk with Pelton. Maybe next time.
Points pulled from the podcast and a bit of response.
Thunderground Radio: KD might have had the ball too much, too early on the court and teammates aren't used to his passes.
Pelton: KD still needs to work on play-making.
Thunderground Radio: Will they miss Adams?
Pelton: Something to watch.
Pelton: Presti entering new phase with new and different challenges / tasks.
Me: Yep.
Pelton: Wouldn't give extension to Green. 3s from him are important. There will be discussion about rank / role vs salary. Trade value is not elite.
Thunderground Radio: Harden comp? Bayless is in there.
Pelton: Harden still sorting his game out. He is young. Liked Bayless too.
Me: Look at data for Harden, Bayless and Westbrook. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=3gh1b
Bayless and Westbrook are pretty similar as shooters / scorers; pretty different otherwise. Harden clearly the best shooter / scorer.
Pelton: Maynor may show 2nd season upside and become a trade chip.
Me: He could end up a nicer asset or more disappointment could set in.
Thunderground Radio: What to do at Center?
Pelton: Ibaka combos are important.
Me: But not much else was said beyond recognizing the dilemma.
Half of Thunderground Radio and Pelton like Rubio a lot.
Half of Thunderground Radio and me don't much.
Thunderground Radio discussion: What to do with Green?
it cut off for me but it was pretty classical pro and con and dependent on price. Above $10 million there was one no.
I agree.