This week on TGR the focus of our conversation is ALL Thunder, especially highlighting the “personality” of this team featuring topics like: Nenad and the half-naked guy, Eric Maynor’s Jesus tattoo, Serge and his awkward photo shoot, Nick’s need for a haircut, and all their gamer skills.
We give a behind the scenes look into media day, complete with a few sound clips from the players. We talk about training camp and the expectations for this coming season. Its funny, its quirky, but we’d like to think it has a veiled level of intelligence, somewhat like Cole Aldrich.
Thanks for the download! Enjoy, subscribe and comment.
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Glad there were some of use to you. Have a good one.
@crow. Thanks bro. Some great questions. Thanks for taking the time to post them. If all goes to plan I will be talking to Pelton on Friday.
should have been... female "playing in the" NBA...
There are so many directions you can go. Either you can try to squeeze a ton in or focus on a few areas. Not sure which would be preferable. Your call. A transcript of that show in particular might get read more than normal and more widely and that could have some useful marketing value for the show.
A few more questions lobbed up:
Any observations from following the Seattle Storm to the title again that you would mention to NBA teams aspiring for a title? Do you think that a stronger 3 point attack added to the strong focus on defense was a big part of both their original and 2nd title compared to the time in-between? (I do.)
Do you think we will see a female NBA within 10 years? Ever?
@Keith
It is understandable that Presti & Co. would generally want to wait until at least the next trade deadline before making big moves. The Chandler called off trade was somewhat reassuring that they are looking, but that was a move using filler not core pieces in trade though. As you suggest, there are some pressures to decide before it is too late. They have filler again this season but will they get something with it and will that be a continuing strategy / resource or does that end this season? You keep looking at opportunities constantly but best to get what you really need to go deep or all the way as soon as possible.
I really hope the starting lineup changes. Not so much at the 2 or 4, but we really need to get Krstic out of the 5.
@Joel
Some of the previous questions for the future podcast are probably too geeky for a general audience. Some of the following might be too. But if you want ideas, here are some more. You will probably find a number you that you have already considered or might get around to.
Is Westbrook a top 5 PG right now or just a candidate who might be there soon?
How much is Green worth on his next contract?
Expand on what the Schoene similarity results mean to you regarding Ibaka. In your view, how likely is it that he will be a star? Is he more likely going to just be a very good role player?
Is Brooks an elite quality coach who will soon have more achievements to back that up?
What level of signal would it take for the Thunder to change their current design and what level of signal would be enough for you to recommend change?
Who will be the biggest surprise in the west this season?
How much do you expect the Thunder offense to improve? Have you done a team similarity review for the Thunder?
What is the next big development or change you expect in the media coverage of the NBA?
Do you have Synergy and what level of access? What impressions do you have of it now and how would you improve it?
How long do you think the Lakers window will last for getting to the conference finals and beyond or at least beginning favored to do so?
Who are your favorite players to watch and who do you consider the best and if they are very different what do you make of that?
Do you expect the NBA to return to Seattle in the next 5 years or ever?
Do you expect the Kings to file for relocation next spring?
Who is the next most likely to move soon?
Any little known NBA related sites you want to give some pub?
Do you expect the Thunder to win a title in the next 5 years?
How many contenders do you think have at least a 10% chance of winning the title this season?
Do you expect the Thunder will keep one, both or none of Collison and Krstic?
Do you think Durant will play much more PF anytime soon?
Which NBA assistant coach would you recommend most for head coach consideration?
Which current player would you peg for future coaching success?
If you could offer the Thunder one recommendation what would it be?
What NBA rule would you change?
What is one of the biggest “myths” about the NBA, stats related or not?
Are there any significant level of team / agent alliances?
Are there teams who are notable “friends” / better than average and more regular working partners?
If you could design an NBA PG to lead your team how would you prioritize these skills- shooting, scoring, running the offense and defense or would you just take the highest overall combination you could get?
Do you think the Thunder should stick with last season’s starting lineup or change it?
@Crow
The Thunder should have always been asking that question of themselves. In some respect, I believe that is why we haven't seen the kind of major moves that other teams have made. OKC's management hasn't decided yet whether this team still has the ability to improve internally to that point, or whether certain players are maxed out. The only problem is that cap space is quickly becoming a scarce resource, and may be all but gone in a new CBA. I would like to think by this year's trade deadline that we will know who and what this team is, and thus know who or what this team needs.
@Crow
Agreed. There is a wide divide between a deep playoff team and a bonafide contender which people seem sometimes to overlook. Just my 2 cents.
@Joe
If "Rose/Booz/Noah/Deng/Brewer/Korver" is not "a championship level core", and it probably isn't, that says that the standard for "a championship level core" is really high and it should prompt the Thunder to constantly be asking that question of themselves realistically.
justin :
I like Noah a ton, but is he the third best player on a championship level team? Is Rose / Boozer / Noah a championship level core? It might be, especially if Boozer and Noah remain healthy. I think the Bulls could have gotten a much better player by trading Noah – maybe even gotten in on Carmelo.
No, I don't think that Rose/Booz/Noah/Deng/Brewer/Korver is a championship level core. I think they will be a solid, deep, scary playoff team in the east, but this core doesn't get them past Miami, Orlando, Boston. It puts them on a similar footing probably with Atlanta would be my guess.
Most things are not without surprises or unforseen events like injuries, but that core isn't going to win the trophy.
Noah's best season on Adjusted +/- was his first. I probably started to like him then and it can be hard to turn back. I'll give him another year or two to get more positive on Adjusted +/- with the new coach and team. He should be able to by then if it is going to happen. The signing is not a certain slam dunk and maybe too much like the Chandler story before it. The decision is premature but they gambling to do it for the fear of loss or a higher price-tag. A fuller investment / risk management type analysis might better say if they paid "too much" all things considered or not.
Looking at his boxscore stats and his player type, I want to like Noah a lot, as part of a big 3. But the set of Adjusted +/- values are modest- close to neutral if averaged and the trend last season was down. How he is coached and responds and fits with his teammates will make it a good signing or not.
@Mark!
You are probably right that the Ellis-Harden comparison is worth considering more. My reaction was sort of a distraction but there was some basis for it. The biggest difference between the two players at the same age was in shooting / scoring efficiency. In general I think there are some differences in the biggest factors of the game that probably should disqualify a guy from being a top comp. I say that, but then I notice Harden's 1st year matches up with Ellis' career. I hope Harden will be a more efficient shooter and scorer than Ellis and the 1st year results suggests there is a good chance. Hope he wasn't just quicker to near his peak.
@AC
Thanks for reading and not being "killed" by it or "killing" me for it.
@justin
I tend to agree with this, especially now that the Miami Heat are what they are. Other than compiling all the top end talent, they acquired them at way below value (assuming you agree Lebron is worth more than the max in terms of basketball value).
If Noah is your #3 player, you can be competitive but it's going to be a struggle each season. If Noah is your #4, you're set up to contend with Miami.
I feel similarly about the Thunder and Westbrook as the #2 vs #3 option.
Ever since Paxson took over the Bulls have supposedly had a lot of opportunties to acquire big name talent for some of their young players they refused to part with. I think they might look back on this Noah contract the same way they look back on Luol Deng and who they could have acquired for him at the time.
The reason I'm not thrilled with that extension for Noah is because of the CBA stuff. The Bulls have big money tied in a lot of players not named Derrick Rose. Suppose a hard cap is implemented - the Bulls would be screwed now.
I like Noah a ton, but is he the third best player on a championship level team? Is Rose / Boozer / Noah a championship level core? It might be, especially if Boozer and Noah remain healthy. I think the Bulls could have gotten a much better player by trading Noah - maybe even gotten in on Carmelo.
He's paid fairly if you consider his salary relative to some other big men, but almost all the big men he compares to (Dalembert, Okafor, etc.) are considered overpaid. I think a deal more in line with what Andris Biedrins got would have been better for Chicago. I think they could have at least gotten him to 5/50 by playing some hardball.
I still believe Miami is going to suffer a series of injuries. Especially with their 10+ year vets: Haslem, Z, House, Juan Howard, Maglorie, & Mike Miller.
@Crow
Monta is an interesting comp. I don't think Harden is quite as talented as Ellis, and I think Harden's statistical production will diverge from Monta given more time w/ the team, especially in the starting lineup.
Coming off the bench as a primary scoring option amongst not fantastic offensive players, Harden's playstyle had some commonalities with how Ellis plays. If Harden were on a bad team and given lots of PT and told to be the number one option, I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up with very similar numbers as Ellis, if not quite as prolific.
I don't understand it completely (nor do I really want to spend the time doing so), but interesting age stat comparisons.
Crow killing it in the comments.
Joel :
I’ve bee talking with Kevin Pelton from Basketball Perspectus about coming on TGR. When he comes on, what do you guys want me to ring up with him?
1. Are you still comfortable with the Schoene weights all being equal in determining overall similarity (or correct, if that is not still the case). Any possibility that changes in the future based on past Schoene performance?
2. Does he know if 82 games will continue to offer its usual data in the future?
3. Does he know if any teams have eliminated or changed analytic consultants after recent team changes?
4. Will the Prospectus have any major new analytic offerings?
5. If able and willing without necessarily getting into specifics, would he say that working with the Pacers changed his view of how teams operate in a modest or major way or not really much at all?
6. How many NBA teams would he say he follows closely and deeply?
7. Does he intend to write more papers to academic standards in the future? Does he find many NBA personnel who value a paper written to academic standards far above that of a moderately detailed, well-written article or paper? Does he think that a reasonably high % of the analytic work being done by team consultants is of that level of difficulty and depth of research and preparation or is it this standard mainly used to make gate-keeping easier? Did his participation in the "A Starting Point..." statistical survey written a few years ago make a deep impression on the Pacers, more so than his broader body of articles?
8. How many wins does he prediction for the Thunder, Blazers and Heat?
9. Does he think that a team with its main stars under 25 is at much of a disadvantage against teams with stars above 25 or above 28 or higher?
10. Does he check Adjusted +/- values for players or lineups much or at all?
11. How important does he think coaching is for the most successful teams and on average compared to the value of the players alone? Coaches compared to the impact of GMs, Owners and Consultants? How many of today's coaches would he call elite level coaches?
12. What does he think was Presti's brightest decision to date? Weakest decision or missed opportunity?
I can probably come up with more but that is a start.
boozer broke his hand, so chicago wont look as good to open the season against
Current production / value from guys making over $10 million on the full list can vary widely but among the conference finalists you can probably say all but a couple delivered that much in value. Getting that much makes you at least a young vet and probably above average or well above average at something at some point. Will the Thunder eventually go to 3 or 4 guys over $10 million? Which guys? Will they all deserve it and return that much value? Do they get there next season (unlikely), 2012-3, 2013-4 or later? How long are they willing to stay there? Can they afford other guys or many other guys at $6-8 million in those future years? It is a tricky design dance.
I've bee talking with Kevin Pelton from Basketball Perspectus about coming on TGR. When he comes on, what do you guys want me to ring up with him?
@Mark!
Thanks for the clarification on the Ellis in the comparison being Monta. Not a name I am particularly fond of. Some obvious differences but still probably not a bad overall Schoene criteria match. May or may not be an argument against being position-blind. The assists are a bit more than 50% different per minute. If it was more, like 2 to 1, I'd object louder.
Last season the conference finalists averaged 3 guys over $10 million in salary. Equally split between bigs and perimeter if you count Lewis last season at his PF spot.
Only the Nuggets and Spurs had 4 over $10 million salary last season. This season it is the Nuggets and Mavs though the Jazz are real close and a couple others are fairly close on the 4th guy.
If there were 2 50+ win young teams and you told be one was willing to sustain $70 million budgets (the level Atlanta is at now) and one was willing to go to $80 million, that is a notable advantage, though obviously there are plenty of other factors to success. If you told another team would stay at the equivalent of $60-65 million in current dollars even during their peak period that would a modest disadvantage.
How much to spend is a judgment call, but it is easier for lower than median spending to lead to less than fully satisfactory final results than great results. Not sure how high Thunder ownership will go. Not sure they know yet either. It is easier to say in advance you are going to stay with a moderate budget and make it work well enough or to a title than to do it or do it often.
2 of the Spurs title seasons had budgets in the top 10, 1 a bit below average, 1 well below average. The average for the title seasons was larger than the average of the non-title seasons, though it didn't work for them so well last season. Maybe this season? 13th on spending right now seems like splitting the difference and near the borderline to win a title with the current competition. Winning it all spending less than $65 million seems less likely in the face of the current Lakers and Heat and others than it might have in a few years in the past. There have often been teams who spent wildly but when the best teams do it, it is more of a challenge.
@Keith
Yes, ATL believes they are in their window for a championship and I can understand the Johnson signing better in that light. How long they think they can stay in that window after the signing is debatable. Losing Crawford is not necessarily the end of the window but losing Crawford might not be the end of the losses as you hint. I'm guessing their window is not as long as they seem to think but how Teague develops is pretty important. Perhaps they can add a PG and / or a SG for the MLE if they are willing to do that. Push will probably come to shove with their big 3 unless they are willing to be top 5 on spending on a sustained basis. If they are, they sure didn't seem that way in other ways to date.
@Crow
ATL spending will likely hurt them immediately, but there is little they can/will do to react. ATL believes this is their window for a championship. I think most smart fans know they don't really have a window to begin with, as the players they have simply aren't good enough. The Johnson contract will probably do the most damage in 11/12 because there is no reasonable comparison by which Johnson deserves that much but Horford doesn't deserve the max. As such, they will be dropping close to 80% of the cap in three players who apparently don't draw enough fans or make deep enough playoff runs to offset the team cost.
@Sammy
I'm sure it will. Horford's agent will point out that Noah never made an all star team or out of the first round, while Horford did both. His agent will be looking for the max. Green's agent, meanwhile, will point out that Noah scores less than Green and played on a worse team. He will try to make the case that Green is as valuable as Noah, and that 5/60 would be a reasonable deal. In Horford's case, he might get it. In Green's, that kind of bargaining could be the impetus to trade him.
Crow :
Harden: Which Ellis? Dale Ellis?
Ron Artest, JR Smith, Monta Ellis, CJ Miles
ATL's massive spending on Johnson will likely hurt them badly as soon as 2011-12 or not much after given their probable total budget stinginess.
@Keith
I think the risk of Noah going thru the 5th year to get unrestricted free agency was greater than normal based on his personality and perhaps clash with not only front office culture but now potentially with the coach too and probably more so. The David Lee scenario probably had to be considered in the overall decision. NY got a sign n trade but for Noah it could have gone differently. I guess they might end up trading him later anyways if it doesn't work out to the extent hoped.
@Keith
True, the CBA does change things. Until today, I think KD was the only player from that class to receive an extension. Wonder if this'll affect negotiations with Green and ATL's negotiations with Horford.
the number of frontline players making over $10 million was about 1/3 more than for guards "for each position" (not because there are 3 positions instead of 2).
A list from a couple years ago showed that the number of frontline players making over $10 million was about 1/3 more than for guards. Without focusing on individual merit, I think that was about right on where to give the big bucks. Some of it is gambling and not worth it but when it really works well teams usually have 1 or 2 good or great bigs. Whether they had to pay full price or had them on rookie contracts will vary but if you want a sustained high success you will have to pay eventually or rotate players in and out to some degree.
Slight adjustments to previous sentences:
It will be hard to add substantial free agents without pushing current rotation players down or out... "but you still should try".
If this team is to peak after 2013 or 2014... they will no longer "be much" younger than the norm for the success.
@Sammy
Maybe a RFA this year, but next, with a looming lockout and likely reduced salaries? This was a very special year, and spending was out of control. The Bulls shouldn't have been negotiating with what some team would have overspent on Noah this year, since he's still under contract until a very different point in time.
@Keith
Collecting young players is an early part of a successful spending strategy but you really have to decide when your peak window of time is... and actually peak then and part of that result depends on having enough vets and enough total spending then to get it done. It will be hard to add substantial free agents without pushing current rotation players down or out.
Relying on most or all real young (25 and under) guys for the stars is not the normal way to deep playoff success nor for many of the role players of top teams. Some yes, but only 3 moderate age role player vets is on the light side.
If this team is to peak before 2013 or 2014 and the present approach is maintained it appears to require they do it younger than it is normally done. If this team is to peak after 2013 or 2014 then either A) not much of what is in place right now is permanent and doesn't really define that future or B) by then or after, with the current cast largely carried forward, they will no longer by younger than the norm for the success.
@justin
I think it's a little unfair to compare that to Bogut's deal since I think the Bucks got a steal on that contract. I think 5/60 is the baseline for what he would have fetched as an RFA
The average spent by the 4 conference finalists rose from about $70 million in 07-08 to about $80 million last season. OKC at this point is under $55 million for this season.
@Keith
I agree. Makes the same as Bogut, who is better. They've got a lot invested in Noah / Boozer now. I love Noah but I think Chicago could have gotten him a lot cheaper if they played hard ball.
How much better is Noah than Anderson Varejao?
@Crow
What is your take on the Thunder's spending habits? On one hand, there is a real necessity to develop players before going all in with free agents/trades that complement your core. On the other, this team seems to have pretty set strengths and weaknesses already and they just passed up a free agency period with a handful of strong scoring/rebounding big men.
@justin
That seems quite high for a one-way player who gets bullied by centers with bulk. I mean, isn't it pretty much the same contract Chandler and Dalembert got, both players who were considered greatly overpaid by the end of their contract?
Yes there are different ways to do it if you are some combination of real good at spending money and coaching and perhaps a bit lucky, but Bulls in MJ's last title season were the highest paid team. After he retired they purposely went to near the bottom for 5 years. Then they went 6 seasons trying to do it spending between 15h and 21st most. It didn't work enough. They got above .500 twice and won one playoff series. Last season they went to the 13th spot on spending. This season I guess it will be lower but it it is probably a temporary circumstance and headed higher with the Noah signing and a heightened push to win. How high they are willing to go on spending will probably affect the degree of success.
Sets Horford's price, Horford should get more than that.
@justin
That seems like a sensible compromise for both parties.
Being willing to spend even more certainly helps your chances. The Sonics had typically been in the bottom 5-10 on team salary... but the season they went to the finals they were 7th highest. A few million more might have been enough.
Joakim Noah got 5/60 from the Bulls.
Even after wining 55 and getting to the conference finals and being 4th best on offense they thought they needed change to their overall mix and they made one. It took 3 years to pay off to the level of a finals appearance. With both these guys, most everything else the same but with a healthy McMillan I think they would have had a better chance to win 1 more game against the all-time best record 95-96 Bulls.
Having said all that about the past, if you don't move forward as fast and as far as hoped, as driven to, then having Green share the PF position at least a bit more with a strong overall partner, whether that be Ibaka or somebody from outside, is one of your main options for getting better. Ibaka and somebody from outside might be better than Green and Ibaka. This season should be enough to make that calculation, though you still have to get that better somebody somehow.
Yeah they would have had to share minutes and it would have been tight but I think it could have been done given they both could play multiple positions. Others on the team did that and they made it work. 10 guys played 10+ minutes in 70+% of the games the season they went to the finals. If they kept McKey they could have basically just given him half Askew's minutes and all of Wingate's, sliding Askew to SG more.